Was It Magic or Expertise?
Early on Saturday, after the initial line on James Madison versus East Carolina was first posted, I posted a thread under Sports and Sports Betting called "My Favorite Line of the Day." I suggest everyone go read it, as it is rather short.
It turns out I made that post with a bit of a sly nod. James Madison opened -7 in that game.
Now there were 90 lined college football games last week. Which game do you think, out of all 90, wound up with the biggest line move? Hmmmmm? Well, it turns out that in the hours between my post and the kickoff of the James Madison/East Carolina game, the line moved a whopping 5 1/2 points! It moved more than any other game.
Now how would I have known that? Well, truth to tell, I didn't KNOW it, but I suspected it at the time. So little www.vegascasinotalk.com had a member who happened to pinpoint the single biggest line move of the week IN ADVANCE of the line budging.
It must, of course, have been all dumb luck on my part.
Bettors -- some public and some private -- poured money in on East Carolina. The line nose-dived to -1 1/2. Think about that. All that money on one side of the game. But what did the member of www.vegascasinotalk with the "My Favorite Line of the Day" say about that? Well, it's pretty clear to someone who bets sports that the author of the thread isn't a fan of the team with the bigger television contract, the brand name, or the better "FBS" designation. In fact, the author seems to be warning you off the team getting more television money for their name.
Of course, people who don't know what they're doing wouldn't recognize that the poster just nailed the single biggest line move of the week as his "Favorite Line of the Day." Or that he disagreed with the likely money to come on a particular team.
Now I would never have bothered pointing out the expertise inherent in that post, except Mr. Belly and Mr. Singer not only didn't grasp the post, they decided it was a good reason to criticize me.
The problem with this site is that people who often don't know what they are doing, such as Rob Singer and coach belly, presume they do. I don't really know any of coach's posts that reveal any expertise in anything, except for a free play explanation that was pretty obvious. Rob has some decent advice when he's not expounding on video poker, politics, or (gag me with a spoon) sports. Unfortunately, he just whiffs on so much obvious stuff, like this, that it's a sin.
People on this site need to decide whether they want to read expertise or nonsense. And if you want to read expertise, then you should, as readers, stand up for the person who's actually expert. I have been more than cordial and fair to coach belly. I have never wavered from saying about Rob, "He's a horse's ass regarding much, but he has some points." But I mean, let's face it, these dudes don't contribute much of anything. They just try to knock people down.
Coach's criticism of my "My Favorite Line of the Day" is my favorite example of him making an ass of himself. My favorite moment for Rob is when I said I'd be making $25 in Super Bowl bets two years ago, and purposefully left the K off the 25, figuring there was a good chance Rob would jump in and say what a piker and low roller I was. Of course, Rob took the bait like a blind catfish with a food addiction.
If people want a decent site, they've gotta defend the expertise and call out the nonsense. I just nailed the biggest line move out of 90 games, and suggested it was wrong. And I did this BEFORE THE LINE MOVED.
Must have been, as Rob would say, luck.
