The optimnal play in craps

Aside from the dubious "art" of controlled throws, there is no way to beat the house in the long run in craps. However, you can take the house edge down to VERY low (lower than any other house game), if you place "odds".

Taking "odds" always reduces the house edge in craps.

For those of you who don't understand what I'm talking about, in craps many people start off with a "Pass Line" bet. The house edge on this bet is 1.41%. I won't bother explaining how a "Pass Line" bet works. You can read up on that yourself. After the Pass Line bet is made, if it doesn't win (7 or 11 thrown) or lose (2, 3, 12) on the first roll, you can place an "odds" bet. Again, I won't explain what that is, but it has zero house advantage. Therefore, placing high odds bets will reduce or almost (but not completely) wipe out the overall house advantage. To combat this, casinos have a limit on how large your odds bet can be. Most only allow 3-5 times your pass bet, but a few casinos allow you to make odds bets as much as 100 times as large!

The optimal play is simply to put as high of an odds bet as possible after your Pass Line bet does not win/lose on the first throw.

Now, keep in mind that high odds bets will increase your odds to win, but will also induce more variance. That is, you have wild swings up and down. If you're a conservative gambler, this is not the way to go, even if you are getting better odds overall.

Thank you for posting this as it is always very good information. Mathematically there is no way to beat the game of craps. Even if you do take the house's mathematical edge "way down" by posting odds, the house still has a mathematical edge -- as small as it might be by posting maximum odds.

Unfortunately for the mathematicians, while the "odds portion" of a bet has zero house advantage, the house is still more likely to win the odds bet made by "pass" players. And while the "don't pass" players are more likely to win their odds bet they have a distinct disadvantage when their "flat bet" is made, and their odds are paid at the opposite of "true odds."

To put it simply, the casinos still have it all "figured out" and craps remains a negative expectation game. No betting strategy will ever beat it.

And because no betting strategy will ever beat it the "dream" lives on that someone will master the throw and bounce and rolls of the dice. Because the only way to win in this game is to make the dice hit the numbers you want. I guess you could say that "smart betting" and following the math of betting will only ease the pain of losing. It still won't make you win.

Alan,

Why do you accept that craps cannot be beat, but still argue that -EV VP with a house edge much higher than the best bets in craps can be beat?

Over the long term you can't beat craps, which is why craps players use win goals and loss limits. If you quit when ahead you can beat the game. Sound familiar to what I talk about with video poker?

Craps, VP, all the other games can be and are beaten every day. That is called "LUCK". But they are all negative games. So unless your timing and luck get you ahead, and you leave with that profit, you cannot beat them long term, and I personally don't believe we can get ahead often enough for even that to work, especially in craps. The key in craps is to maximize your profit during the rare hot hand. How do you know the hand is hot until it's too late? Maybe that's where experience can help a little. Otherwise, get lucky, catch a hot hand, and maximize your profit while you can. Craps ain't for the faint of heart .

It would appear that system or not, Rob has had some good luck.

regnis,

I agree with almost all of what you have said. But doesn't Rob say that you shouldn't "press" bets when you are winning and things are going well in the middle of a hot roll or a nice streak in VP?

Alan,

I guess our definitions of "beating the game" are different. You yourself state that you cannot beat a negative EV game over the long term, but then turn around and claim that with win goals and loss limits, you can consistently beat the game and be an overall winner with a net profit.

If you place a $25 pass line bet and the shooter rolls a 7 you win. You pick up your $25 + $25 (win) and leave with $50. Sure you've won and technically "beat the game" that one time, but are you able to do that enough times to overcome the built in house edge and make up for any losing streaks you encounter? Even regnis says he doesn't think it can be done.

First I never claimed to be a winner at craps. But those who have won knew to leave the table after a hot roll.

I wanted to add to this. My original post was made via cell phone when I was away from the office.

I have cut back dramatically on playing craps because only on rare occasions have I ever won any money at it. It's a game for losing, which is why many call it a social game. The only way to win at craps is to make the dice land on the numbers you are betting on. And unfortunately, the game of craps is structured that you can only win one bet at a time but you can lose all of your bets on the table at one time. Craps payoffs on the winning numbers are also limited with the top payoff being 30-to-1.

Video poker is different. With VP you make one bet at a time and either win or lose that one bet at a time. The payoffs on VP poker range from zero (for a loss) to 800-to-1 for hitting a royal flush. Only at a few casinos is the fire bet offered which has a 1,000-to-1 maximum payoff.

Craps is a game that requires big bets to win big money. In video poker, a bet of as little as $1.25 can win $1,000. And at many casinos, video poker players get better comps and cashback and free play than what craps players get.

And from a strictly mathematical point of view, many of the bets at a craps table have house edges that would be called criminal if on a video poker machine.

But there are those who do win at craps and it comes from a combination of betting strategy, luck or influence on the dice (you decide which), and discipline to leave because you realize the good times don't roll on forever.

If Rob Singer preached his win goal system to the players at a craps table, he would be preaching to the choir. Literally.

I agree with almost all of what you have said. But doesn't Rob say that you shouldn't "press" bets when you are winning and things are going well in the middle of a hot roll or a nice streak in VP?

I don't want to put words in Rob's mouth and I don't think he plays craps, but yes, that would be contrary to his VP system. I believe it is the only way to play craps.

Well that's what Rob says about moving up in denominations. I don't play his way, do you? When I win money at $1 video poker, I move up to $2... and then I move up to $5.

I also press my bets at craps but not before my original outlay is back in my rail.

I'm not one to stand at a craps table for 4 hours till i get ground down. If I think we have a good shooter and a good hand I power press like an animal. I either make my lick or come back later. No re-buy in at any 1 session. So my loss limit is my buy in. But I will make a big lick if there is a hand.

Since I was barred from shooting, I play only sparingly now. But when I watch the games, there never seems to be a hand anymore.