Betting On The Patriots & The Tom Brady Dilemma

Each year since 2000 I make token $100 bets on each of the four Boston sports teams to win the championship. I haven't kept track, but I know I've gone in to collect more than my share for someone who does something similar.

What happens to bets made for the coming season when they take a team off the board because of something like this deflategate nonsense?

I'm with Joe Theisman on this issue BTW. Brady would never, after already having won 3 SB's, intentionally cheat to get some sort of industry-perceived "edge" in any game. It makes no sense, and he's even said he doesn't like his football's soft anyway. I know Goodell needs to project strength after flubbing up the domestic violence cases, but to pick on today's face of the NFL who plays for the most prolific team in the sport seems stupid, especially when there's only the equivalence of hearsay as "evidence". Besides, his wife just retired, and how they gonna make it with his cut in pay?

I believe regardless how the appeal goes, the best thing he can do is what now seems as a far tougher challenge: win another SB in the next 3-4 years. I'll double my bets on the Pats each year until he retires.

All of the bets made previously stand as written, whether they are for (1) the opening week (NE -6 vs. Pitt), (2) futures regarding winning the AFC, the Super Bowl, the division, or x number of games, or (3) Games of the Year, where spreads were posted in advance for key games of the season.

For the point spread options, obviously if you had previously made bets on the opposite side from the Patriots, you now have excellent middle opportunities or the best of it, whatever you choose.

It's unfortunate that the report came out before some of the books posted lines on all New England games for the upcoming season, as Cantor Gaming (at the Palms) and Westgate (formerly LVH) have done in the past. That would have provided a full array of middle opportunities for whichever games Brady is suspended. He is appealing, so there is no guarantee it will hold at four games. It cannot get worse, which is one reason he is appealing. It's possible, but unlikely in my opinion, that the suspension could be reduced to two games or adjusted to four weeks as opposed to four games, which would cut him a break and have him sit out a bye. I think the four games will, however, stick.

I tried to scramble and get some wagers in when the report results began to be leaked the evening before the actual report release, but alas. I was too late to fire away on the Steelers as the offshore books had been cautious and yanked the lines off the board.

And Rob, I've read some of Theisman's quotes, and he came down harder on Brady than what you're summarizing here.

Thanks red. I know that Joe came down hard--at first. But yesterday, while he didn't retract the harshness, he took the position that it doesn't make sense that Brady had anything at all to do with this, especially given that there's no direct proof anywhere. We just like to try and take down people who are tops in their field. I know that 1st hand :)

Since I know nothing about sports betting, are new bets made with new odds/lines or whatever you call it? And if you wanted to sell tickets already bought does their "value" change? Is there a resale market? If so that might be an interesting play.

New bets are made with new lines/odds. The old bets stay intact at the odds at which they were bet. In other words, the bets are not like horse racing bets. They are not parimutuel.

Technically, there is or could be a resale market, but most people would just use the old bet, if they have the best of it, as leverage to create an advantageous position. For example, if I had procured the Steelers at +6 1/2 (which I would have bought to +7) before Brady was suspended, I could now take New England -2 for some amount and set up a "middle shot." Or I could just sit with Steelers +6 1/2 and have the best of it.

We need to have dinner and a two-hour briefing sometime so you have the basics of this stuff down. I could do a little mini-lecture for you, and you'd pretty much have a handle on most of it.

P.S. Invite Rob so he can tip me after the lecture.

I'll tip you right now if you tell me what the outcome of the appeal will be.

I'm gonna say it stays the same. As you probably have figured, it's actually a big deal as to whether it gets reduced a game or two in terms of trying to decide if the Pats could lose that division.

The sports talk shows here primarily think that the NFL won't budge on this even though there is very little evidence against the Pats or Brady. They are being punished for other perceived sins.

Red--do you know if they have changed the number on total wins for the season for the Pats. The first number I saw several months ago was 11.

Off the board everywhere, and I checked earlier today. It probably won't be back up until after the appeal. All the other teams are available. What's interesting is that there has been only very slight movement on the teams that figure to benefit from Brady's suspension.

Regnis, the problem is, the entire case is based on speculation and--get ready....INTERPRETATION. Donald Trump says Brady should sue the NFL immediately if they don't erase his penalty. It's one thing to suspend someone who either admitted to the crime or there's hard evidence of the fact. But since neither of these are valid, Goodell should be looking at what he's really doing rather than trying to cover his past tracks of incompetency. Brady is probably the most successful NFL player ever, and with it comes his legend & reputation. With this suspension, Goodell did far more than penalize a player for suspect behavior. He's attacking everything about the guy. In my mind that requires solid proof....something Goodell does not have. I think Trump is right. I also see where he came out within an hour of the Pats' rebuttal to announce he will be the arbitrator, even though NE asked for an outside person to do the job. He had 10 days to decide and he announced it fast. That should piss Brady off even more. I don't think it will or should end after the appeal.

I have to agree with Rob. How can you do that to someone's career and reputation and value as a player without proof? At best it sounds like hearsay evidence. Unless, of course, there is more concrete info we don't know about? But it there is that concrete evidence it should be revealed.

Guys, guys, stop a moment and think here. This denial and appeals process is all bluster. If Brady really hadn't done anything, he'd offer to testify under oath. The suspended Patriot employees would then also testify under oath. If any of them hadn't done anything, you would hear Brady's agent and the Patriots actually say, "We're willing to testify under oath." You would also hear, "We'll take a polygraph to clear our good names" as a publicity gimmick. You haven't heard any of this so far, not once. Nothing about "under oath." Nothing about polygraphs.

If you had a million dollars at stake, would you be willing to testify under oath if you hadn't done something?

So what doesn't get said tells you more than what does, which is usually the way of the world.

Red, it's obvious Brady is keeping silent for more than one reason. The Pats and their lawyers were aware of what you're saying from the beginning. Giving away their hand before they have to wouldn't be wise.

redietz might be right that there may be guilty in silence. But I think the Pats and Brady's lawyer are in the early stages of negotiation. It could end up in court if negotiations break down. On the other hand if there is guilt they just might be trying to minimize the damage.

So Kraft isn't appealing. Private deal???? Hmmmmmmm.

Hmmmmm is right. Maybe they'll adjust that Brady suspension a bit, since the commish is doing the appeal himself. Or maybe Kraft actually spoke to Brady, and decided a brave public face while not having to tell the truth is the way to go. Or a bit of both.

Somehow the "WE'RE INNOCENT OF ALL CHARGES!!!" turned into "We're innocent, I tell you," to "I really think we're not guilty," to "Well, nobody proved nothin', but we'll pay our million bucks."

Pretty funny.

It's like a murder case plea agreement deal where the innocent person will very possibly be convicted by circumstantial evidence, so they take the lesser of two totally wrong evils. In this case, Kraft & Goodell have a friendship, so you can be sure they were talking privately before coming out with their game faces publicly. Goodell saves a bit of face on this, while Kraft gets fined peanuts and Brady gets cleared like he should have in the first place. The only problem is the loss of draft picks. Not sure how they work that one out.

Now we know why Goodell came out so fast to announce he would hear the appeal.

And the two poor schmucks who had to actually do the dirty deeds for Brady and the Pats will be non-employed by the NFL forevermore. Kraft or a friend will then provide them with higher paying alternative jobs. It'll be like when casino management gets caught rigging drawings and promos -- they get fired, then take higher paying jobs with casinos on reservations. And everyone lives happily ever after.