Hows meter movement impact if a game can be worth playing?

So I get how meter movement has to be high in general for a game to be likely to generate plays. The higher the meter movement, the more the prog grows per chance to be hit. Small meter movement means that most value comes from base value and so there is no place for there to be an advantage without significant meter movement.

What I am wondering is do meter rates tend to suggest what % of payback the prog is? It is the same question as do meter rates suggest the frequency the jackpots hit? I have a pretty good idea by looking at a series of progressive pots on some unknown machines whether it might be +EV due to an outlier. Or at least I tell myself that. I don't know how meter movement effects things in general.

Lets say I am playing a game where the meter movement is 1.8%. It resets to 250. It is at 450 and the minor prog jackpot out of 3. The other 2 progs have grown but not like the small one. I don't have the stuff to clock a game nor the time or inclination (although I might do it for some newer widespread games to share it with others. Not going to clock some randon 3 reel electro-mechanical machine. So what can I discern from these numbers alone?

The other numbers would be like 600 from 500 reset and 3200 from 2500 reset. (with minor being 450 from 250 reset)