If You Bet Sports, Heed The Word.
Let's face it--if you're a sportsbettor, are you gonna place your fate and earnings in the hands of someone like LVA's Fezzik that touts mathematical formulas as a way of going broke, or have you not yet learned to listen to the simple method of true ingenuity that I possess, sometimes utilize in the form of bets, and have more than prospered on when I do use it?
Today was the final day in the regular season of the NFL, and what a day it was. I didn't make any bets after my amazing parlay scored BIG TIME recently, and I am not a regular sportsbettor by any stretch. In fact, the parlay was my only sports bet of the year!
However, I spent around 4 hours analyzing every team that's in the playoffs, and I am going to make a few bets when I get back down to Pahrump. I'll be going into LV to make them of course. So I thought I'd share a few of my picks--and why--with anyone smart enough to be reading this forum, and I'll also indicate how much I put on the games I'm betting. I may or may not bet every pick I make, but just as I did on the parlay bet, I'll clearly identify exactly what I do before the games are played. Check back often if you're at all interested.
Here are my pre-bet/pre-game comments:
1. Cincinnati @ Houston: Houston is tough at home but they have QB issues. The Bengals don't, and this season has been the year of the QB. I'm strongly leaning towards Cincy in this game.
2. Pittsburgh @ Denver: The Broncos have been confusing this year. All the Tebow stuff aside, they have a very good defense against a fair offensive team like the Steelers can muster, and Big Ben has had about as much good fortune as anyone alive by winning two Super Bowls he shouldn't have--one vs. Seattle in which he scored the worst SB QB rating of all-time, and the other against a clearly better Cardinals team that got bad break after bad break in that game while Pitts got just the opposite. A safe bet on this game will be to go with Denver.
3. Detroit @ New Orleans: The Lions are even better than their 10-6 record indicates, but they're running into a team that's undefeated at home as well as VERY hot on offense. Most people expect a high scoring affair with NO winning. I don't. I expect the Saints to win something like 31-21.
4. Atlanta @ New York Giants: I had to wait to see what happened in the Dallas game tonight, and what I saw only confirmed how bad Dallas was and how middle-of-the-road the Giants really are. OTOH, I like the Falcons, and I do not expect the Giants can either stop them or score much. Many people won't agree, but to me this is a no-brainer: bet on Atlanta.
Remaining teams: If you're on the Baltimore Raven bandwagon, get off now. No way a stiff like Joe Flacco belongs in a Super Bowl game. In addition to a 2nd class offense, their highly rated defense doesn't really impress me that much--especially if and when he has to face the likes of Rodgers, Brady, or Brees.
What about the Green Bay Packers? Truthfully, I can't see them getting by either the Saints or the 49ers. Why? Because THEY HAVE THE WORST DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE, and that defense has given up MORE YARDS than their unstoppable offense has gained! Look at the Detroit game today--a 45-41 win at home? 520 yards passing given up with 5 TD's in the air? And what's even more telling, this isn't a lot different than they've shown all year.
What about my team--the Patriots? Don't bet against them, even with their shabby defense. Lots of analogies with the Packers and they are a better road team than the Saints. The difference maker is their coach....and Tom Brady. Too much experience and too many big games.
San Francisco is a puzzle for me right now. They have the ability to go into Green Bay and spoil things for the Packers, but I don't think they can beat the Saints....right now anyway. Let's see how things shape up after next weekends games.
