Guardians/White Sox

Printable View

08-26-2022, 07:01 AM
redietz

Guardians/White Sox

Just a note: if anyone took my advice from the Smart Money thread and took Cleve to win the division at +850 and +900, the idea was to get it down to a two-team race and then hedge with the other team. My opinion at this point in time is that the Twins are not likely to win the division. Most algorithms agree. This may be the ideal time to shop for White Sox odds. I would put just enough on the ChiSox (who most people, me included, think are actually the best team) to cover the Guardian wager amount. If the Twins make a run, you can sort that out and deal with it later.

In other words, by covering the ChiSox now, you get leverage to make this a non-loser. Breaking even or winning is usually the way to go. I think in common parlance it's known as the double up bug.

Have a good year, folks.
08-26-2022, 01:23 PM
redietz

Quick update. If you snag a +350 or better on ChiSox to win the division, I would put about half a unit on it if you have one unit on the Guardians. Set up a profit rather than a push versus profit.

If the Twins make a run, we'll worry about that later.
08-28-2022, 08:45 PM
regnis

I keep hesitating with this because the white Sox really suck right now. Also a lot of injuries.
08-28-2022, 10:29 PM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by regnis

I keep hesitating with this because the white Sox really suck right now. Also a lot of injuries.

Oh hell yes, it's a bad idea now. This was posted before the DBacks swept them, which was stunning and almost put a fork in them. The proper thing to do today is plug in the Twins as a substitute.

The Guardians are owed a ton of home games, so they are in better shape than they appear.
08-29-2022, 08:47 AM
redietz

Regnis, the thing about the ChiSox -- the top of the order has done fine all season. So has the starting pitching, really. What's killed them are the last four slots. They have fallen off the table.

I'm going to do a blog on the Nebraska football team. Herbstreit picked Nebraska to make the Big 10 championship game. Well, I almost did, too. The fact is, this was no mega-long shot. They were +300 to win their division. They don't play the top three teams in the other division, which is usually my cue to find something to bet. In fact, it was the last (non)decision I made. My partners and I were discussing Nebraska the night before the season kicked off. It was a good, intellectual debate. What I said at 9 PM was "I'm going to find something to do with them." They were +1700 to win the Big 10 (Ohio State in other division), so to me that was a wash with the +300 to win division.

By 2 AM, I emailed everybody (since I do have the final word), "I just can't do it. They aren't good enough."

As an old distance runner, I'm a little more sensitive to conditioning issues, and Nebraska, for whatever reasons, has had serious, obvious conditioning issues for two years. That's why the NW coach made the reference to his offensive linemen "only puking" four times during practices this year. It was a not so subtle dig at the Cornhusker conditioning.
08-29-2022, 01:59 PM
regnis

I can get ChiSox +628 here, and on the sports radio they said they could get 700. I still won't touch it but in this division it only takes one streak. I am cub fan so I watch Sox every night and root against. It is amazing to see the starting pitching (one bad start by Queto) and nothing to show for it.
08-29-2022, 02:10 PM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by regnis

I can get ChiSox +628 here, and on the sports radio they said they could get 700. I still won't touch it but in this division it only takes one streak. I am cub fan so I watch Sox every night and root against. It is amazing to see the starting pitching (one bad start by Queto) and nothing to show for it.

I thought when the ChiSox pulled two games out of their asses late against the Astros a few weeks back that they were poised to make a run. That Diamondbacks series just killed them. Two of the games, the DBacks basically did nothing and won the games.

I thought early on that .500 could win it, but then of course you have KC selling off their better players, so when you finish against the squads that surrendered, you'll always wind up above .500. But it was the kind of division I thought Cleveland could win. The only thing the Guardians do well, and outside of the super teams it's rare these days, is hit for average. The entire lineup except Straw can hit for average. And there aren't many average teams that can hit for average these days.
08-30-2022, 08:32 AM
regnis

Hey Redietz-can't PM you. Full
09-02-2022, 06:03 PM
redietz

To wrap this up, we took the Twins for a unit at +175 today. The Guardians put two starting pitchers out for two weeks today. It will take a minor miracle for them to win the division with two starting pitchers. I have no idea where they'll get other starters this late in the year. Basically, it's a wash if either the White Sox or Twins win. If the Guardians win, we make some money. I timed these hedges horrendously, but we're out of it all right.
09-11-2022, 08:00 PM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by jafdevera004

keep hesitating with this because the white Sox really suck right now. Also a lot of injuries.

No, we plugged all this in as went along. We have the Guardians at +850 and +900, risking a unit. Then I timed the hedges miserably. We basically have half a unit on the ChiSox at +350 and Twins for a unit at +175. The latter two results create a wash. The first gives us a 7 1/2 unit win or thereabouts. Guardians have just six road games left, so we have a shot. Two starting pitchers, however, will be out another week, so who knows?
09-11-2022, 09:04 PM
monet

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

No, we plugged all this in as went along. We have the Guardians at +850 and +900, risking a unit. Then I timed the hedges miserably. We basically have half a unit on the ChiSox at +350 and Twins for a unit at +175. The latter two results create a wash. The first gives us a 7 1/2 unit win or thereabouts. Guardians have just six road games left, so we have a shot. Two starting pitchers, however, will be out another week, so who knows?

All I know is that NBC has gone too far.
Bad enough they put all the women into the NHL announcing booth(s).
But now they got some black woman doing the NFL Halftime Report??
I can handle Black or Green but my massage therapy hates women in Men's Sports.
And Jason Garrett isn't much better.
That fucking brown nose son of bitch gets all the good high paying gigs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wDUBlBezCM
09-11-2022, 09:54 PM
redietz

Quote:

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

Originally Posted by redietz

No, we plugged all this in as went along. We have the Guardians at +850 and +900, risking a unit. Then I timed the hedges miserably. We basically have half a unit on the ChiSox at +350 and Twins for a unit at +175. The latter two results create a wash. The first gives us a 7 1/2 unit win or thereabouts. Guardians have just six road games left, so we have a shot. Two starting pitchers, however, will be out another week, so who knows?

All I know is that NBC has gone too far.
Bad enough they put all the women into the NHL announcing booth(s).
But now they got some black woman doing the NFL Halftime Report??
I can handle Black or Green but my massage therapy hates women in Men's Sports.
And Jason Garrett isn't much better.
That fucking brown nose son of bitch gets all the good high paying gigs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wDUBlBezCM

Serious handicapping tip: Never watch sports shows with the sound on. Closing your eyes also helps during pre-game and halftime.