Examination of Mdawgs 6 year results.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Interesting development over at the Shack shack (WoV) today. Mission146 has announced that he is undertaking a project to add up all of Mdawg's daily and trip reports of his claimed winnings over the last 5+ years.

Speaking as someone who has done this for several of Mdawgs trips, I suspect Mission doesn't realize how time consuming this will be. I wish him well.

What mission will likely conclude, should he be permitted to complete this project, is that Mdawg has claimed to have won several million dollars over that time:
PLAYING TABLES GAMES
PLAYING RATED (where the casino can see your results)
PLAYING HI LIMIT ROOMS AND PRIVATE TABLES with many sets of eyes on him.

and has not only received no heat, backoffs, trespasses or countermeasures that he has spoken of, but the pit bosses loved him and patted him on the back, all the while the casinos comped him extraordinarily (like a high rolling LOSING player).....according to the fairytale.

I for one am looking forward to the results. :) Although this project appears to be without the approval of Mdawg and my bet is he is burning up the phone line and PM's to Shackleford, begging Mike to put a stop to it, to protect Mdawg again, as Mdawg is not going to want such a clear picture showing what nonsense these claims are.

Good luck Mission.

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I am breaking this discussion off, into it's own thread, as this has now become a much bigger deal with the revelation that it was Wizard (Michael Shackleford) that asked Mission to undertake this project. To be fair it was another member, lil red rooster (also a member here), that requested this from Mike. And LRR, was not alone. A number of us have requested something alone these lines for quite a while now.

What is at issue is that by totaling up Mdawgs individual (all but impossible) results, Mike will finally after 6 years worth of this nonsense be able to comment that mathematically, as reported, these results just are not possible. It isn't a case of somebody just running good. He will be able to assign a number of just how implausible these results are just as he did with Alan's 18 y.o. claim and other all but impossible claims. And he will be able to do that without breaking any agreement that he was roped into signing.

I am sure Mdawg is still working Mike behind the scenes, to reverse course and put an end to this. Dawg has already labeled this trolling. It isn't trolling. It will be a mathematical examination of the improbably claims he had made and been allowed to make for going on 6 years now. I applaud Wizards effort and can only add....it's about time!

I will not respond to any attempts to turn this about me and would ask and hope that Dan Druff remove any hijacking posts attempting to do that. This is a mathematical look and reckoning of Mdawgs all but impossible claims spanning almost 6 years now. Again....about time!

Who cares?

I don't know if Mission146. will make an appearance here or not regarding this topic. But here is a suggestion to Mission: Focus on the task at hand. Don't get into the side discussions of accusations being throw about and attempts to discredit you (a usual Mdawg trick). Just focus on the task you were give so that we can get to a mathematical conclusion...finally. This should be easier with Mdawg now out of the picture for 7 days.

And Mission, I wish for you to know that there are many more of us that appreciate this project and how much effort will be needed. It isn't about trolling or hating on Mdawg (we are way past that). This is a mathematical reckoning of this situation which is LONG overdue. So thank you again.

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Who cares?

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I care. MrV cares. Lil red rooster, poker Grinder, Mission 146 and even Mdawg among others that are members here care, (mdawg a little differently than the rest of us). Axelwolf hasn't weighed in at this particular time but has expressed over the years that he cares.

As usual UNKewlJ is whining softly over the fact that MDawg gets all the attention, while he gets the boot.

As I've stated from the beginning of the thread, I welcome the fact that someone loves MDawg enough to spend all this time on adding up what is public record anyway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jDmioJt0wg

What isn't right is that I got suspended for saying that Mission146 is a fan...obviously he is or he wouldn't be working day and night gratuit annotating the history of the Great MDawg.

This explains the shrieking from below that I overheard this morning when I walked over the tunnel grate heading into the Linq....RIP

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Mike will be able to comment that mathematically, as reported, these results just are not possible.

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He may not have the data available to accurately determine the probability of MDawg's reported results.

I believe the total number of hands played, and the average wager per hand, would be required.

But even if he did have the required data, he won't comment that MDawg's reported results are mathematically impossible.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

What isn't right is that I got suspended for saying that Mission146 is a fan.

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What did I tell you about the snowflakes over there?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

He may not have the data available to accurately determine the probability of MDawg's reported results.

I believe the total number of hands played, and the average wager per hand, would be required.

But even if he did have the required data, he won't comment that MDawg's reported results are mathematically impossible.

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Exact number of hands not necessary. It would be almost impossible to know that information. What we will have is more information available to work with (the total) than we have with just a bunch of individual claims.

Here is the issue:

There are basically 2 parts to Mdawgs claims. The first is of a player who has played hundreds of days/sessions per year (one year over 200, others between 100-150) and has won 90% of those sessions and days totaling what is likley to be millions of dollars (we will find out). Is that possible mathematically? Well I don't know about the 90%. But mathematically, assuming no heat or countermeasures, (which works into part 2 of the claims), it is possible to win if a player is doing something that gives him an advantage. there are advantage players, even lowly card counters that can do this and satisfy the mathematical angle of this.

But there is a second part, to this and that is all the comps. The casinos will not just sit there and allow a player to do this. Table game AP's play unrated and move around a lot, so the casino doesn't have accurate records of what is going on. They/we play many casinos, moving around. A player just can't sit there and do what Mdawg claims, even if he is doing something mathematical that allows or accounts for the winning claimed.

This is precisely what Dan Druff and others (myself) mean when we say things like "There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

If he claimed part 1, a higher limit AP doing something with an advantage fine. I don't beleive a player can get away with that for 6 years playing those limits, but fine...mathematicaally.

If he claimed he received all the comps he does because he is a higher limit (whale type) player, playing -Ev and losing over all....that part would make sense.

It is when he tried to claim both these things, that it just defies the way things work. Something is missing, fabricated or incomplete.

There is nothing missing. Other than about 100 IQ points from your reasoning ability. Evidently those 0? 1? 3? 4? years in college didn't help. :D

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Originally Posted by Gottlob1

The thing about KJ - if you actually read what he writes - is that he constantly echoes the words/phrases and themes of the immediately previous replies by others. As I noted, a while back, he's extremely suggestible. Not someone in control of even his own life. People don't always end up in places like Vegas by their own conscious volition. My guess would be some nut-job living from one day to the next, now on the internet. Certainly of negligible intelligence, etc.

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It's just like UNKewlJ to whine over that MDawg is getting all the attention. All this does is add up what is already there anyway, nothing new. I welcome the process but I should be available to comment on it once Mission146 is done including to make sure he got it right.

Exactly. It is an incomplete story. Which one of you tards are going to step up and take the MDawg challenge?

Until that happens you're just a bunch of chickens running around clucking at each other....RIP

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Exactly. It is an incomplete story. Which one of you tards are going to step up and take the MDawg challenge?

Until that happens you're just a bunch of chickens running around clucking at each other....RIP

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The Mdawg challenge is nonsense Maxpen. It is one of those "rigged" challenges" that will never actually happen.

First it is about short term results of a session or two. No one is saying it isn't possible for anyone, gambler, AP, +EV, -EV player to win short-term. That is what gambling is. It is long-term, like a thousand days over 6 years that becomes problematic.

And what Mdawg wants to do with this challenge is provide some kind of win/loss statement that will back up his short term result. the very type of thing that can be easily doctored and fabricated. I mean did we take Rob Singers phony "bill of sale" as proof that he owned a Newell"? :confused:

I you want to get serious, I would be interested in a challenge but it would involve witnessing either myself of someone I trust, many sessions and days. Lets say a month's worth. While that would still be considered small sample size, I would bet a lot of money that no months play witnessed going forward, not backwards, would come close to matching any 30 days worth of his claims. I am not sure how the logistics could be worked out, but that is the sort of real challenge I would be interested in. Not seeing some phony, doctored or fabricated statement

I like Mission and respect him but unless we know the exact number of hands it is impossible to know PRECISELY and MATHEMATICALLY what the odds of Mdawg bullshitting us are.

And if we can't know mathematically it is all just a GUESS. Albeit an educated one, it is still a guess.

I'm here for the math. Guessing is NOT math.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Exactly. It is an incomplete story. Which one of you tards are going to step up and take the MDawg challenge?

Until that happens you're just a bunch of chickens running around clucking at each other....RIP

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The Mdawg challenge is nonsense Maxpen. It is one of those "rigged" challenges" that will never actually happen.

First it is about short term results of a session or two. No one is saying it isn't possible for anyone, gambler, AP, +EV, -EV player to win short-term. That is what gambling is. It is long-term, like a thousand days over 6 years that becomes problematic.

And what Mdawg wants to do with this challenge is provide some kind of win/loss statement that will back up his short term result. the very type of thing that can be easily doctored and fabricated. I mean did we take Rob Singers phony "bill of sale" as proof that he owned a Newell"? :confused:

I you want to get serious, I would be interested in a challenge but it would involve witnessing either myself of someone I trust, many sessions and days. Lets say a month's worth. While that would still be considered small sample size, I would bet a lot of money that no months play witnessed going forward, not backwards, would come close to matching any 30 days worth of his claims. I am not sure how the logistics could be worked out, but that is the sort of real challenge I would be interested in. Not seeing some phony, doctored or fabricated statement

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Pick multiple sessions and accept the challenge on each one. In the long run you have to be a winner. Right?

I can tell you the odds that the hound is bullshitting: 100%.

there is room for rounding and estimates, within the confines of "the math".

I track my blackjack play by rounds played, rather than hours or whatever other players (even AP's do). Because rounds played is actually what matters. What the fuck is an hours play anyway? I have been at slow moving crowded tables, (frequently on weekends) that average 40 rounds and hour. And I have played heads up where you can get 300 rounds an hour. So an hours play has NO meaning. It is rounds played that matter.

But I don't sit there and count the rounds played. I estimate. Using things like 2.7 cards per hand, per player and dealer, divided into the number of cards played from the shoe. Pretty easy calculation. But still just an estimate.

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Originally Posted by MaxPen

Pick multiple sessions and accept the challenge on each one. In the long run you have to be a winner. Right?

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Mdawgs challenge is about past performance. he is going to try to prove past performance. I want to see him duplicate these outragous claims going forward. That is when I will believe.

Take Evenbob/Spike, who claims he wins 80% of the time at roulette. If I was to accept some challenge with him, I would want to accompany him to a roulette table and see him win 80% of the spins.

The problem is, UNKewlJ has no pots to piss in. Whereas I have all sorts and sizes and different shapes to piss in. So engaging with that irritant for a wager is apparently a waste of time. I tried to propose a simple bet where the only thing at stake was self banning from these forums, and he couldn't even pick that up.

So, let's say I bet...something more substantial, with someone who evidently at least has some pots to piss in. With MisterV. V, I can come up with any figure we agree on, against, that:

any entire year you pick of my session results will be corroborated within shall we say 10% of what the casinos have reported. Obviously for a bet like that my providing WIN statements will not be enough, we'd have to go to Vegas together and ask for them together directly from the casinos. And obviously we are not going to do that for a mere pittance.

And I will add, to make it airtight, that if you determine that I have played at any casino other than the ones I have provided access to for WIN statements, that forfeits the entire bet in your favor. If you recall, I once bet AxelWolf six figures that he could not find a single casino at which I had played other than the ones reported in my WIN statements.

I'd want an NDA signed with a liquidated damages clause as to protecting my identity (and yours too, if you like), but obviously you will be free to post the results publicly, after you pay me for the wager.

But keep in mind before you decide on how much you're willing to lose that the WIN statements I posted were not pieces of paper, they were actual live video of me logged into my player accounts, navigating pages.

I'll leave this offer, like the UNKewl one he declined, on the table for 24 hours too. Let me know.

This is a serious wager for what appears to be a serious person.

Dude, why don't you stop the name calling and finally act like a normal person.

Look, You want the challenge to be about showing something that you think corroborates some past play. I want to see you duplicate or even come reasonably close to duplicating these claims, because it can't be done.

If not mistaken, I believe the wording of your challenge is "you will prove to my satisfaction". Well it is not possible for you to prove to my satisfaction, because I am not intereted in past claims, that documentation can be fabricated. I would want to see for myself, you duplicate or come reasonably close to duplicating these claims you have made for 6 years.

It's like I said, using Evenbob who claims an 80% win rate. I would want to see him play and win 80% of the time, or reasonably close.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

But there is a second part, to this and that is all the comps. The casinos will not just sit there and allow a player to do this.

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This part cannot be proven to be mathematically impossible.