Dan Druff's 2025 MLB picks

Let's do some opening day baseball.

First, a tale of two pitchers who looked strong in the spring:

Mets (Holmes) at Houston (F. Valdez) - Under 4 -105 - FIRST 5 INNINGS



Second, a tale of two pitchers who have NOT looked good in the spring:

Minnesota (P. Lopez) at St. Louis (S. Gray) - Over 4 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

Sonny Gray has a 12.56 spring ERA, and recently admitted he's weak because of a flu he never really got over. He and Mookie Betts should get together and figure this shit out. Pablo Lopez has been wild and has a 9.35 spring ERA. Lopez's strikeouts look good, but he struck out almost 200 in 185 innings last year, yet had an ERA over 4.

Between these two, we should get 5 runs.

I am going to tag along with both these, only because I do volume betting and will tag along with almost anyone and you do fairly well with your picks, although you are very streaky.

But I gotta say, if I didn't make my money from the bonuses and had to really pick winners to win long-term, I am not sure basing anything on how players or teams performed in spring training is a sound strategy. But hopefully, you hit these two. :D

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I am going to tag along with both these, only because I do volume betting and will tag along with almost anyone and you do fairly well with your picks, although you are very streaky.

But I gotta say, if I didn't make my money from the bonuses and had to really pick winners to win long-term, I am not sure basing anything on how players or teams performed in spring training is a sound strategy. But hopefully, you hit these two. :D

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

Let's do some opening day baseball.

First, a tale of two pitchers who looked strong in the spring:

Mets (Holmes) at Houston (F. Valdez) - Under 4 -105 - FIRST 5 INNINGS



Second, a tale of two pitchers who have NOT looked good in the spring:

Minnesota (P. Lopez) at St. Louis (S. Gray) - Over 4 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

Sonny Gray has a 12.56 spring ERA, and recently admitted he's weak because of a flu he never really got over. He and Mookie Betts should get together and figure this shit out. Pablo Lopez has been wild and has a 9.35 spring ERA. Lopez's strikeouts look good, but he struck out almost 200 in 185 innings last year, yet had an ERA over 4.

Between these two, we should get 5 runs.

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I mean, if you really believe in these picks...
Parlay those Fuckers.

2-0

Nice start to the year

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

2-0

Nice start to the year

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Yes, thank you.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

2-0

Nice start to the year

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Yes, thank you.

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Did you all parlay or wimp out?

Shota Imanaga and Brandon Pfaadt face off tonight. Imanaga was amazing last season before starting to fade at the end, presumably from fatigue. He looked very good in the spring, with a 13:2 K/BB ratio. He looked pretty good against the Dodgers in Japan, not allowing a hit in 4 innings, though he did walk 4.

I am high on Pfaadt this year. I think he's going to finally put it together. He was better last year than his mediocre numbers indicate. His spring starts looked fairly sharp.

I think this one will be a low scoring game.

Cubs (Imanaga) at Arizona (Pfaadt) - Under 8.5 +100

Quick baseball fantasy trivia. I am actually ahead on baseball fantasy at Fanduel lifetime. Today I took a player, Aaron Judge, in an early contest. He scored 82.8 points. He was 4 for 6, had 3 HR, scored 4 runs, and had 8 RBI. Unfortunately, I did not cash!! And my pitcher had a great day! The issue was 70% of players had Judge, and there are an awful lot of Yankee fans in the contests, so when the Yankees score 20 runs, if you don't have three or four of them, you are dead meat.

I have never had a player score 82.8, and probably never will again.

Won the Arizona under... barely! Should've been easy, being 4-1 in bottom 9th. Unfortunately Arizona pushed through 2, and then the tying run was thrown out at the plate. If he scored, I lose. Phew!

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Regarding the Cleveland/SD game tonight:

The truth is that both sides have a starter with a rough spring.

Luis Ortiz has a 10.39 ERA and 1.98 WHIP.

Kyle Hart has a 9.39 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, and has just 11 Major League innings under his belt -- 5 years ago! (And they were really bad!)

Hart also battled the tough 2025 Influenza A strain (which I had myself in January) during the spring, and only pitched twice.


So I will go the obvious route for this game and do a first-5 over. I'm going to be on a number of these type of bets until things settle down and the rust wears off.

Cleveland (L. Ortiz) at San Diego (Hart) - OVER 4.5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

Won yesterday in 2 innings.

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What is wrong with Justin Steele?

He had a 9.53 ERA in the spring and has an 8.00 ERA in his first 2 starts.

It didn't help that the Cubs had an abbreviated spring training due to their Tokyo games.

Severino was basically what you'd expect in the spring, and was good in his first game for Sacramento, but was a bit wild.

The Cubs might have a hangover after scoring 18 yesterday, but it could also be the minor league park contributing.

Still I'm going with a first-5 over tonight, as the Cubs have a better bullpen I could see them coming back to win this one.

A's first 5 is also viable if you'd prefer that.


Cubs (Steele) at Sacramento (Severino) - Over 4.5 +100 FIRST 5 INNINGS

The Giants are mostly smoke and mirrors. They aren't the contender the Padres legitimately are.

Hunter Greene has tremendous stuff and is capable of putting together a great game against anyone. The Giants do not have a great offense by any means.

Notice that the first-5 line is Reds +115/Giants -135. The full game line is +148/-162. That's because of Greene.

Truthfully the Giants do have the better bullpen, but I am going for the full game because of the much steeper line.

Cincinnati (Greene) +150 at San Francisco (Webb)

Don't look now but I'm 6-0

Starting very shortly...

Charlie Morton was born in 1983. He's the oldest starting pitcher ever for the Orioles. He's gotten bombed twice so far in 2 starts.

Merrill kelly got destroyed by the Yanks in his first outing, looked ok against the Cubs (but walked 4), and had a mediocre spring.

Another first 5 over.

Baltimore (Morton) at Arizona (M. kelly) - OVER 5 -115 First 5 innings

7-0 now

Barely won this one (2 runs came across with 2 outs in the bottom of the 5th to make it 4-2), but a W is a W.

Nice seven and oh run!

For tonight...

Roki Sasaki still hasn't demonstrated control at the Major League level. He's had 3 starts and just isn't showing the command yet. Maybe this will be the start where he gets it done... but I'm skeptical.

But even if he does.... Chicago's Ben Brown hasn't looked comfortable as a starter yet, holding a 2.229 WHIP, and is facing the vaunted Dodgers' offense on the road.

So...you guessed it... another first 5 over.

Dodgers (Sasaki) vs Cubs (B. Brown) - OVER 5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS -105

Bovada has the -105 line in case you're wondering.

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

For tonight...

Roki Sasaki still hasn't demonstrated control at the Major League level. He's had 3 starts and just isn't showing the command yet. Maybe this will be the start where he gets it done... but I'm skeptical.

But even if he does.... Chicago's Ben Brown hasn't looked comfortable as a starter yet, holding a 2.229 WHIP, and is facing the vaunted Dodgers' offense on the road.

So...you guessed it... another first 5 over.

Dodgers (Sasaki) vs Cubs (B. Brown) - OVER 5 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS -105

Bovada has the -105 line in case you're wondering.

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As a novice, I do not understand what your pick is, Dodgers or Cubs,

In a hopefully humorous twist, I took it as Cubs ML and Cubs +2.5 when the score was 0-1 Dodgers.

Last minute

Yankees (C Schmidt) vs Kansas City (Bubic) - Under 4.5 -125 FIRST 5 INNINGS

Not-so-last-minute

Rockies offense is abysmal, but Bobby Miller is having control issues, and the Dodgers have their big 4 in the lineup again. German Marquez has looked lousy in his past 2 outings, following his great first start.

Colorado (Marquez) at Dodgers (B. Miller) - OVER 5 +105 FIRST 5 INNINGS