Update on the KJ AP experience

In short. I am really struggling in 2025. (You don't see many APs share that kind of thing).

I have had a number of years where my results are below, sometime far below expectation for the year or significant part of a year. That is called variance, and is part of advantage play, at least with what I mostly do, blackjack play. BUT that is not what I am experiencing right now.

My blackjack play is actually pretty close to expectation. The problem is that I play much less than I used to (basically only 1-2 nights on weekends, so even at higher staked played, that expectation or EV is not even half of what it used to be when I played "full-time".

And what I have filled that time with for almost 2 years now (2 years in Sept) is sports betting (which seems to infuriate Redietz). In particular bonus chasing or whoring sports betting, where my profit comes from exploiting the bonuses rather than picking winner. I am trying to learn all I can so I can make some picks that are better than just a coin-flip, but in in all honesty, I don't think I will ever get to the point that I can pick winners enough to make a decent profit without the bonus chasing aspect.

Started out great Sept of 2023 and all of last year. I was getting great bonuses, in large part based on several years of losing (lower limit) degenerate type sports gambling. I was getting bonus from some places that were far better than anything the posted publicly. One place I was even able to negotiate better bonuses for a couple cycles. But that has all come to an end.

Now my bonuses are basically what you see advertised on the sites. And those bonuses are calculated so that the AVERAGE player will eat through the bonus money on the way to the rollover requirements.

Bottom line, I made good money for the first 16 months. That would be football season 2023 (when I started) and all of last year. And now I am not. It is kind of hard to calculate where you are at when you are midway through some cycles, but I have not even hit 5 figures yet for this year. Close but still under. At almost halfway through the year, that is projecting way below last years 70k. :(

I have had several cycles where I just didn't make any money. Playing through the rollover basically ate up the bonus money. and another where I was stiffed out of the bonus after I had played through rollover.

I am really struggling with baseball. Outside of Dan Druff's picks I can't seem to hit much consistently. Lasy year I had a monster 6-7 week run from late June to early August betting overs when much of the country was enveloped in massive heat and the ball was bouncing out of ballparks. This year, so far, that has not occurred, leading to speculation of a "deadened" ball being used. I don't buy that, but we will see. In the absence of another period like last year when overs hit at 60 some percent for 7 weeks, I am just not making much money.

I enjoy spending a lot of time in my home betting and watching sports, and leaves me time for my other hobby, feeding the trolls, but at years end, after football season, I am going to have to really re-evaluate if I should continue betting sports as an advantage play. It may be time for me to return to my roots....fulltime blackjack play. After all, THAT is why I moved to Las Vegas. :)

Reasonable thoughts comments and advice are welcome, but we all know all I will get is trolling from the haters.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

In short. I am really struggling in 2025. (You don't see many APs share that kind of thing).

I have had a number of years where my results are below, sometime far below expectation for the year of significant part of a year. That is called variance, and is part of advantage play, at least with what I mostly do, blackjack play. BUT that is not what I am experiencing right now.

My blackjack play is actually pretty close to expectation. The problem is that I play much less than I used to (basically only 1-2 nights on weekends, so that expectation or EV is not even half of what it used to be when I played "full-time".

And what I have filled that time with for almost 2 years now (2 years in Sept) is sports betting (which seems to infuriate Redietz). In particular bonus chasing or whoring sports betting, where my profit comes from exploiting the bonuses rather than picking winnings. I am trying to learn all I can so I can make some picks that are better than just a coin-flip, but in in all honesty, I don't think I will ever get to the point that I can pick winners enough to make a decent profit without the bonus chasing aspect.

Started out great Sept of 2023 and all of last year. I was getting great bonuses, in large part based on several years of losing (lower limit) degenerate type sports gambling. I was getting bonus from some places that were far better than anything the posted publicly. One place I was even able to negotiate better bonuses for a couple cycles. But that has all come to an end.

Now my bonuses are basically what you see advertised on the sites. And those bonuses are calculated so that the AVERAGE player will eat through the bonus money on the way to the rollover requirements.

Bottom line, I made good money for the first 16 months. That would be football season 2023 (when I started) and all of last year. And now I am not. It is kind of hard to calculate where you are at when you are midway through some cycles, but I have not even hit 5 figures yet for this year. Close but still under. At almost halfway through the year, that is projecting way below last years 70k. :(

I have had several cycles where I just didn't make any money. Playing through the rollover basically ate up the bonus money. and another where I was stiffed out of the bonus after I had played through rollover.

I am really struggling with baseball. Outside of Dan Druff's picks I can't seem to hit much consistently. Lasy year I had a monster 6-7 week run from late June to early August betting overs when much of the country was enveloped in massive heat and the ball was bouncing out of ballparks. This year, so far, that has not occurred, leading to speculation of a "deadened" ball being used. I don't buy that, but we will see. In the absence of another period like last year when overs hit at 60 some percent for 7 weeks, I am just not making much money.

I enjoy spending a lot of time in my home betting and watching sports, and leaves me time for my other hobby, feeding the trolls, but at years end, after football season, I am going to have to really re-evaluate if I should continue betting sports as an advantage play. It may be time for me to return to my roots....fulltime blackjack play. After all, THAT is why I moved to Las Vegas. :)

Reasonable thoughts comments and advice are welcome, but we all know all I will get is trolling from the haters.

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Anyone who reads even a bit of a sheet of text like that, that KJ spews on a daily basis, has to have a screw loose. Ha.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss_qL73I4eQ

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Originally Posted by Dan Druff

kewlJ: just admit that you enjoy telling stories for attention on forums, and will try to stop doing this in the future.

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Living the dream... or dreaming the life?

KJ, it might be time to get some form of part time job to supplement your income.

What about becoming a casino dealer?

Advantage slots

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Advantage slots

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I know advantage slots is the popular thing now a days. Even someone like Zenking, who like me came to Vegas to attack blackjack has moved on to slots. I don't think it is for me. To be honest, I think it is above my pay grade. I have always done the elementary type advantage plays. I would need someone to really show me.

And no, I am not asking that of you or anyone. :)

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Originally Posted by MisterV

KJ, it might be time to get some form of part time job to supplement your income.

What about becoming a casino dealer?

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Whooa! Let's not get crazy here MrV.

First if I even decided to work for someone else again, which I have no plans to, the very last person or organization I would work for would be a casino. I do not like the casino industry. I think they are predatory and would want no part of working for a casino.

But we are way ahead of ourselves here. You know, I started my blackjack career at age 20, after buying a book at the library book sale. After reading that book and then another and practicing, convincing myself that the math worked, I thought wouldn't it be cool if I could make 40-50 K a year for 5-10 years. I mean I was working a 15k job at the time, so 40k would be a major income increase.

Well I didn't start out making that. My first 3 years were less than I made at my retail job. But now 22 years late, I have made over 2 million dollars (total AP). The math is pretty easy. A little under 100k a year and that includes that very slow, low limit start.



All I am saying is, I am having a not so great year. Coming up on the half way mark, if I were to double what I am up for the year so far, we are talking 45-50k range, which guess what? That was my initial target 22 years ago. :D And I can actually live comfortably off 50k. BUT, that isn't even where we are at. Last year was my best or second best year ever. I made just under 150k. So you average what I am projecting right now to last year and guess what...right back near that 100k mark again. :D

It isn't time for me to throw in the towel on advantage play. BUT, all signs are pointing to the sports betting that I have been doing for 21 months might be coming to and end. Which I always knew would. The way I was attacking it, it was never going to be a long-term thing for me. I think the time is coming and quickly (maybe end of the year and football season, where it is time to throw in the towel on the sports betting and move to something else.

And that something else just might be back to full time blackjack, the way I did for my first 10 years in Vegas. I still like playing and winning by that means. And the time away, might just be beneficial to my longevity with casino personnel turnover and all. :cool:

Plus, something else will come along. Some other advantage play. Maybe short-term. Maybe longer. Just like the blackjack machine play my brother discovered last spring. Kind of an exciting way to look at it. "Something will come along". :)

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Originally Posted by monet

It never ends with this guy.
He posts one thing today and a week later tells everyone he was lying.
And does it how many times now?
GTFOH... Spiderman!

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Originally Posted by MisterV

KJ, it might be time to get some form of part time job to supplement your income.

What about becoming a casino dealer?

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Now MrV hit on another great insight into the secret workings of KewlJ. Ha.

Then the casinos should declare KewlJ head, nay, Lord, and Master, of the table games. I mean, just think of the untold tens of millions a year that he'd save them outright by relinquishing his still secret counting/betting methods used to fool all of them over the past twenty years.

KewlJ, himself, would be millions ahead, instead of the paltry $100,000 a year, in only a year or two.


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Originally Posted by MHF

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Originally Posted by MisterV

KJ, it might be time to get some form of part time job to supplement your income.

What about becoming a casino dealer?

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Now MrV hit on another great insight into the secret workings of KewlJ. Ha.

Then the casinos should declare KewlJ head, nay, Lord, and Master, of the table games. I mean, just think of the untold tens of millions a year that he'd save them outright by relinquishing his still secret counting/betting methods used to fool all of them over the past twenty years.

KewlJ, himself, would be millions ahead, instead of the paltry $100,000, in only a year or two.

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Your snarky response aside, Garnabby, it is not or was not, uncommon, for unsuccessful, or less than expected successful card counters to take employment with the casinos, where they used their card counting knowledge to help identify other card counters to the casinos. ESPECIALLY back in the day, when card counters were making a dent in casino profits. But those days are long gone in a number of areas. "Counter catchers" was the term given to these people. That or traitors. :D

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Originally Posted by MDawg

Just look at how he got tired of being ridiculed for having no education, so he decided to create a fictional college degree (but couldn't keep track of the amount of time allegedly spent in college). As if anyone could get through four years of college and have absolutely no knowledge of history or literature. The guy has quite obviously been on the streets struggling since his family threw him out.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

I'm rather certain he has money from something he feels shame over

Most likely a prostitute

Pretending to be some hero AP gives him purpose and a sense of accomplishment.

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Ho-hum....as soon as the loser and phony "AP" gets bored enough just sitting around, he makes up his stories in a desperate attempt for attention. Failures in life do things like that, over & over again.

Waiting for KimLee to chime in with a pat on the shoulder :)

I suggested it KJ because you are so enthralled by blackjack that I thought you'd find it interesting to work for the other side.

Think how amusing it would be to identify but not report card counters; imagine the opportunites for world class schadenfreude as people go on tilt and self-destruct.

With sports betting going bust you'll need a new source of income unless / until positive variance kicks in, and what if it doesn't?

What if no new AP opportunity comes along?

Why would you object to working for a casino?

I mean, isn't it just all about the math?

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Originally Posted by MisterV

until positive variance kicks in, and what if it doesn't?

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I probably didn't explain it well in my initial post. I have had years playing blackjack where I experienced some real rough negative variance. A couple that come to mind are about 13 years ago when my blackjack win for the year was $27k vs expectation or "EV" of 84k. The second one was covid year when I think my blackjack win was about 14K vs expectation of I don't remember, but probably 60k (due to casinos being closed for 3 months).

So those were years that were way below expectation or EV and nothing more than bad variance. I also have years the other way. 125k vs expectation of 75-80k. THAT is what variance is.

That is not what is going on now. Now I play less blackjack, so my expectation is 40k, maybe 45k. About half of what it used to be when I played full time. Last year I was right on the money with actual win and expectation pretty close. This year I am also pretty close to expectation, just shy of half way through.

So the blackjack is fine. I play much less (and differently) so I have EV or expectation of about half what I used to.

So the problem is the sports betting. All that extra time is going into sports betting. I spend several hours each day making my picks for the day and then I like to watch the games. Some sports bettors just bet and don't even watch. I like to watch the games.

So last year, I made 70k with the sports betting. So the time spent was worth it to me. This year, I am just shy of 10k, almost half way through the year. THAT is not so good.

BUT this is different than my poor blackjack years. This isn't just variance. If it was, I could deal with it. I am well equipped to handle variance. What is happening is I am getting less bonus money, which is resulting in less profit. A couple cycles no profit. And that isn't going to change. I have begun to wear out my welcome with the books I am using.

There are 100s of off-shore sports books. So I could just find new books that aren't associated with the ones that are currently giving me shit bonuses. But then you have to figure out who is legit and has a bad reputation with payouts and all that. I just don't really want to do all that. I always knew that what I was doing....hitting hard with the bonus play, wouldn't last that long. I always knew that a few cycles of winning, cashing out and they would begin to offer worse bonuses or cut me off all together.

So this isn't a surprise. I knew this time would come.

Part of the reason I went to this sports betting bonus play is that I needed a break from blackjack. A break from the local casinos that I was playing every day for 12 years. I didn't need a break mentally. I needed a break because I had a number of incidents that drew heat and entries in the databases. So this break which will be 2 years in September away from the local casinos and playing everyday, might be just what was needed.

Advantage play will never end MrV. Players figure out advantages and vulnerabilities as quick as a new game is introduced. That isn't really me. I do more of the old school basic stuff. But I might just have to start adapting a bit. I am not ready to call it a career just yet. :cool:

And I KNOW a good blackjack player with a good short-session, move around a lot play, can still grind the local circuit here in Vegas, because my brother has been doing it for 10 years now. Even during the time I moved on to sports betting. STILL do-able, as long as you know what you are doing (mostly what is and isn't tolerated).

Nobody is saying to call it a career yet: but since you play less balckjack and since the bonus whoring has played out a new income stream is required, unless you wish to deplete yours savings over time.

Here's an idea for a part time gig: become a process server.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Nobody is saying to call it a career yet: but since you play less balckjack and since the bonus whoring has played out a new income stream is required, unless you wish to deplete yours savings over time.

Here's an idea for a part time gig: become a process server.

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Thanks for the thoughts and idea MrV. But I will be just fine. :)

There is a line at the end of the movie Casino (with De niro and Pesci), where after his car was fire-bombed and he survived, De niro's character said something like "In the end I just went back to betting sports.....I could always pick winner".

Well I can always go back to blackjack full time. And that is what I plan to do. And like I said, I always planned to get back to it full-time. That is what I do and that is why I moved to Vegas to do 16 years ago. This isn't a surprise to me. I was just doing my books this morning as I do either Sunday or Monday after I play and it keeps hitting me in the face that the sports betting isn't going well. Just not profitable enough for the time I put in. So I posted the update. Probably shouldn't have as it only serves to feed the trolls.

I didn't read any of it, but, as God is my witness, we all know that, by the end of the year, there will be a miraculous turnaround in KJ's thus fortunes, to obtain his expected value of "precisely" $100,000. Same old, same old, nuttiness. As if anyone, ever, cared. At best, a blackjack win. Ha.

Pieces of cardboard. The world's most boring game? Card counting.

And V pretending to like it.

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Originally Posted by MHF

I didn't read any of it, but, as God is my witness, we all know that, by the end of the year, there will be a miraculous turnaround in KJ's thus fortunes, to obtain his expected value of "precisely" $100,000. Same old, same old, nuttiness. As if anyone, ever, cared. At best, a blackjack win. Ha.

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I just told you several years when there was no turn-around, including one in 2020, when I shared my results all year as I was going through it, right here on this forum. I was actually in the red most of the year, as late as October if I remember correctly, and pushed up to 14k by years end. Vs expectation of at least 4 times that amount. So very little turn-around.

So, as usual you don't know what you are talking about Garnabby.

But you are correct that there are some years that I am either running well behind or well ahead of expectation for a good part of the year and by years end, I end up pretty close to expectation. But that isn't for the reasons you are implying. That is simply due to the law of large numbers. The more trials you have, the more likely you will be about or close to expectation.

Take your roulette for example. Small sample size you could see 40 red out of 50 spins. Larger sample size you are not going to see 4000 out of 5000 or 40,000 out of 50,000. It will revert much closer to 50/50.

Bottom line Garnabby, I have shared more of my winning and losing results (even on this forum), than any AP, I have ever seen share such results. And you or anyone else implying anything else is full of shit!

And pick a handle/name and stick with it Sybil.