NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh
The fading of Aaron Rodgers begins.
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NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh
The fading of Aaron Rodgers begins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This will be my first and last NFL commentary.
The selection is fascinating. I say that because Rodgers has a +37 ATS record lifetime. His tenure with the Jets was a disaster, and the interpretation was that Rodgers was over the hill. Or fragile. Or both.
However, I will go out on a limb and say this -- there is very little wrong with his arm.
Normally, I would be all in versus a +37 ATS guy deemed over the hill. I would cite value. But after the last two years with the Jets, I think the perception of Rodgers has taken a hit beyond the reality, so I suspect the Steelers knew what they were doing. In other words, the value may lie ON him, not VERSUS him.
And as I said, I saw nothing really wrong with his arm; it's still live. This isn't Peyton Manning, willing and thinking his way to a SB title after his arm was gone. I will go out on a limb and say Rodgers' arm is distinctly better than Brady's the last two Brady years, and Brady was still dangerous as hell with a decent enough arm and still-perfect placement.
It's one thing to bet against a pop culture hero; value is there, built in. It's another to bet against a pop culture anti-hero supported by a minority, which Rodgers' covid stance made him. The value, in other words, may not be there.
So I would be very careful laying a course this season through a bunch of Aaron Rodgers icebergs. The Steelers have become a mystery team with he and Metcalf on the field together. They play in a division with the Ravens and Bengals, so not much chance of backdooring into the playoffs. They'd have to earn it and get semi-great QB play to do so. That also means Rodgers could be a divisional dog more often than not, which will be interesting.
Baltimore -1 -110 at Buffalo
Atlanta -105 vs Tampa
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Circa Survivor picks (just FYI):
Arizona (3 tickets)
Jacksonville (2 tickets)
Denver (1 ticket)
I used Denver in LMS. This week, I used the Rams. Not sure I like the idea of following the Titans around like a puppy dog, but I don't really have a better theory.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Steelers, in retrospect, have serious limitations. No third-down receiving RB/slotback, really. No dominant tight end when you really need two decent ones. WR corps is fine; rest of the receiving options are C minus at best.
Rodgers has his work cut out for him. If they get themselves a third-down scatback, they solve a lot of woes.
New England +123 at Miami
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo (+5.5 -110 ok)
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110
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Survivor
Tickets 1-3: Dallas (last week Arizona)
Ticket 4: Baltimore (last week Jax)
Ticket 5: Arizona (last week Jax)
Ticket 6: Arizona (last week Denver)
New England +123 at Miami - WIN +1.23
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota - WIN +1.50
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo (+5.5 -110 ok) - LOSS -1.00
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110 - WIN +0.91
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Much better result this week -- 3-1 and up 2.64 units.
This still leaves me slightly down in this early season: 3-4, -0.36 units
Remember, each game is always 1 unit bet.
Oh, and all of the Survivor tickets won, but boy... that Dallas game... one of the most insane games I've seen in my life.
If you watched it, especially the 4th quarter and OT, you'll know what I'm talking about.
Lucky to escape with a W there.
Arizona also almost blew a 27-3 3rd quarter lead at home versus a horrible Carolina team. Shameful.
But it all ended up ok.
I thought of you during the Dallas game. Holy mother -- that'll knock a decade off your life, and I don't have a decade to give.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I used the Rams for my Survivor plays. Was not happy at halftime. They were much the better but were blowing the game. The yardage must have wound up 400-200 or something like that. I tried to save the Ravens for a rainy day.
I think I came out ahead marginally for the week. It's within $100 either way. Will do the formal tally tomorrow. The only NFL I had was Patriots as back half of a teaser at +9, so that worked out, but it was ridiculous. Nobody stopped nobody, and there were special teams TDs galore. Sick stuff.
Brandon Aubrey's 64 yard field goal was the longest in history to send a game into overtimeQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
it was an amazing kick - it went way over the bar - it actually hit the stands - I think the kick was powerful enough to have easily cleared at 75 yards - if the goalposts were another 11 yards back
"The longest field goal "this season" was a 70-yard kick by Cam Little of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2025 NFL preseason against the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 9, 2025. While this kick is recognized as the longest in NFL history, it does not count as an official regular-season record because it occurred during the preseason. The longest successful regular season field goal in NFL history remains Justin Tucker's 66-yarder from 2021. "
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/pwbnx0t18zw
.
While I am sure the NFL was thrilled with this game, as this is the kind of game they desire, it clearly showed just how troubled the Dallas Cowboys are. They barely beat a bad Giants team in overtime at home, with Russel Wilson who has done absolutely nothing for 3 years had the best game of his career.
Terrible, terrible sign going forward for the Cowboys and Jerry World. :rolleyes:
Well, I did the tallies and came out +$7 for the week -- enough for a Starbucks coffee (not latte) at the Golden Nugget. Had a conservative week, really fucked up actually, big-time, by passing on an impossible-to-win wager that won. Just terrible.
Pretty funny; about 12K in wagers (very conservative week) and plus seven dollars. Now, if I were an "AP," I'd count the $30 in cashback from the Heritage site on my winning ledger, but I don't do that stuff.
But good enough to say, "I won Week One. I won Week Two. I won Week Three. And I won Week Four." LOL. If you knew what I passed on, it would make you sick. It would make The Riddler sick. I should be shot, really. When I decided to pass on the wager in question, I asked myself, "Why are you trying to do the impossible? Who do you think you are -- John Wick?"
And on we go.