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Change results? Do you have a crystal ball? I deal with reality. The results are what is in my pocket and what is on the credit meter. You live in a world of what MIGHT happen IF you keep playing. I deal in a real world of what there is now.Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
I got a better one for you: no one ever got out of this world alive.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
So, you are claiming that all the mathematicians in the world are wrong and you are much smarter. LOL. Do you wear a big red nose when you type this nonsense?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Look, my return this year is 101.4% on the OEJ game. That is a full percent above expectation. Do I claim my results are due to some magical ability to cash out at the right moment? Nope, I realize that it is all just good fortune.
You stop your nonsense. I am dealing with the present: here, now, what's in my pocket. I can't go to Bank of America and ask them to lend me $10,000 to play video poker with a 100.2% return plus comps and maybe cashback. And I can't tell my dentist that instead of paying him $125 for a cleaning, he should let me play a hand of $25 video poker with a 100.17% return.Quote:
Originally Posted by arcimede$
When you guys keep getting the answers you don't like, your posts only show more confusion.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
First, the AP crowd needs to do a better job quantifying their criticisms. I'vs seen Alan say multiple times that it doesn't matter if he wins over his lifetime using stop win & stop loss goals. He's only interested in what his results are when he goes to a casino the next time, and to do that he has to wait until the visit is over--not theorize it to death beforehand.
I don't believe anyone who plays in any manner on a single denomination or on several denoms. with no structured strategy, will ever be an overall winner (barring extraordinary good luck).
Red, your correlation attempt with keno & bingo has no merit. It's not an answerable question, at least by me, because I've never really played either and I've never analyzed keno. Bingo seems like a silly comparison. I imagine BJ played martingale style would be a good candidate for quitting with a win the moment you get ahead--and maybe even overall if the huge loss never comes. The big advantage of course that vp boasts is large winners. But again, it greatly depends on the table limit as well as the player's bankroll.
I see the disconnect here.
Alan (and Rob, for that matter), can you please define what you mean as "quitting"?
Because QUITTING means stopping for good.
So should a -EV gambler quit the game for good if he's lucky enough to be ahead? YES, at least if he wants to hold onto the money.
But your definition of "quitting" is different. It means "quitting for a fairly short period of time".
So what does "quit" mean?
If you stop playing to go to the bathroom for 5 minutes, does that count as quitting?
If you walk away from a machine and come back 30 minutes later, does that count as quitting?
If you go to dinner for 2 hours and come back to the same machine, does that count as quitting?
What if you quit at 11:55pm and come back at 12:05am? It's a different day. Does that count as quitting?
Or does quitting mean that you don't play for 24 hours? If so, what if you only stop for 23 hours? Is that still quitting?
Maybe you think quitting means that you don't play any more for the "trip". But what if you drive home and then drive back there the next day? Is that still quitting? What if you live close to the casino? How does one define quitting in that case?
See, there is no way to define QUITTING if you are coming back to the machine. You didn't quit. You just paused.
And while you would laugh at anyone who says, "I'm ahead $2000 so I'm quitting while ahead, and not playing again for 15 minutes", those same people are questioning why you think quitting for a period longer than 15 minutes is any different.
That was seriously eloquent, Dan. That sums things up brilliantly.
Dan this "quitting time" has been discussed before.
Rob has a system that involves involves what could be multiple sessions in a day.
I use the IRS system: each day is recorded.
For me quitting when ahead has nothing to do with quitting forever. It means stopping play for a time because I have reached a particular goal or got a big winner or decided to lock up a profit.
Recall what happened a month ago: I hit a big royal and locked up a profit with a check. I didn't quit but kept playing.
Jason hit his royal and locked up a big percentage in a check and he kept playing too.
We all agree no one is quitting forever.
But consider another visit -- say a visit I made to Rincon when I had $325 of free play and I hit a $1000 pay on Royal Aces Bonus with AAAA -- and I took that cash and went home -- that was "quitting when ahead."
Quitting when ahead is more of a code for "I'm taking this money now and not putting it back."
When you play again isn't an issue. You might plan to play again after dinner or the next day but you suffer a heart attack that night having sex. Or you might play again a month later but before that the Zombies take over.
You don't know if you will play again. All you know is that you have a nice profit and you're taking it.
If you have a problem with the idea of taking a profit so you can have a better dinner, or smile more before sex, or face the Zombies with cash to stop bites on your ass, I can't argue.
So I'm still not understanding.
What defines "quitting"?
How long in between sessions?
Please read again what I wrote above. And ask Rob Singer about his different method.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Whether or not all of your cash outs will add up to a long term profit may or may not work. That's not as important to me as sticking to my loss limits which is defined by my entertainment budget. It's losing what I just won that I want to avoid.
Dan nailed this. Rob doesn't have win goals whereupon he quits. He has win goals whereupon he PAUSES. This simple proper use of language clears up many things.
Alan, earlier you were saying something about quitting when ahead is a winning system.
Now you're saying something about your overall results may or may not be positive.
I'm now confused. Can you clear up the misconception here ?
I'm guilty of not quitting when ahead. There were days when I was ahead thousands of dollars, kept playing, and lost it all. I don't have records but I think had I left after those rare, big wins and then kept to a strict loss limit my casino balance sheet would be much different.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
A couple of important points:
1. My daily loss limit of $1500 only started about a year ago.
2. Only in the last year did I dramatically cut back my craps play. I love craps but as I've written here several times I'm a big lifetime losers at craps despite having a profit on the Firebet and the small, tall and all bets.
Starting with my one night trip this week I am going to keep accurate and honest logs of my play and when I had a profit and my net for each day.
I like what Rob said about letting the small daily profits add up. I think they can at video poker and with my new way of playing craps I stand a chance at craps too. My last three trips to Bellagio were all modesty profitable at craps.
I am going to admit something to all of you which is why I honestly think Rob's strategy of quitting when ahead could really work.
three years ago I hit the progressive royals at Rincon twice: in July for just over $36,000 and then again in October for just under $36,000. The night I hit the second progressive I thought i could do nothing wrong since I hit it very early. So I moved up to $10 video poker... and proceeded to lose $15,000 in short order.
That $15,000 would have made the difference between a winning or losing year that year.
What if you left the casino with your nice payout....came back next week and lost $15K? That's totally different!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I'll respond on this. People who win big on a visit are much more likely to go up in denomination immediately afterwards than they would be on future casino visits. Casinos want and expect winning players to do that, obviously. And most oblige.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
So the problem is, what exactly? That he went up in denomination? Lost a lot? Or continued playing? I think it's a combination of going up in denom AND losing a lot...because surely, he would continue to play [on future visits], would he not?Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Dan/Red, quitting is a subjective term. When I use the word "quit" it simply refers to the fact that my session, bound by a structured strategy, is over. Period. If I win my goal or more I'm happy, and if I lose my goal I am not. For me, if it's a trip win goal then the day is done for good. If I have a profit it goes into my family's life and not to grow my gaming bankroll. The profit is used for our enjoyment and that's it. Reaping the benefits of a short-term success.
If I go to a casino to play five sessions then I quit playing upon completion of each session. If you want to call it a "pause" that's OK, but to me this "pause" means I may or may not gamble with the profit from my previous session on my next session. I prefer "quit" because to me that means whatever happened previously is in the books and will not change, ever.
I know you like to keep saying that it is all one continuous adventure, but that's just one more thing misguided players do that the casinos want and expect their players to do. When a player uses a strategy like mine that sees sessions end on a highly volatile game & at $5/$10/$25 or even $100 denominational play, and when the very next session (whether beginning in one minute, a day, a week, or ten years later) starts over again at the strategy's lowest level and least volatile game, that right there is the definition of the word "quit".
Not if I had kept to a loss limit on subsequent visits.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Trip win/loss goals are psychological only.
If you are a recreational player, and need to book winning sessions in order to feel good about your VP hobby, then by all means set win goals.
If you are a recreational player (or alternately, have bankroll issues) and don't want to feel terrible after losing an unusually high amount, then by all means set a stop-loss quit point.
But keep in mind that both give you no benefit except for psychological peace of mind. They do not help you win, unless you are quitting FOR GOOD (or for a very long period of time).
If you are a regular player and will return fairly soon to play again, then stopping is pretty much meaningless.
My earlier post (demonstrating how "quitting" doesn't mean anything if you play regularly) illustrates this point.
What about the argument of, "If you quit while significantly ahead, then that money is in your pocket, and the theoretical odds mean nothing"?
Again, that only means something if you quit for good. If you come back a few days later and play again, then the money isn't staying in your pocket, because it is being risked again -- the same way it would have been risked if you kept playing while ahead.
This is also why I play until my tier points goal (2500 or 5000 base points for the day), and do not quit no matter how well or how poorly I'm doing. I'm going to have to run those points anyway in order to get my Seven Stars status, so quitting early simply costs me more time in getting there. I do not believe that continuing to play on the same day is any worse than continuing to play a week later. Either way, I'm running $500,000 coin-in for the year.