Dan deleting posts and threads ?

Printable View

Show 80 post(s) from this thread on one page

11-20-2018, 07:59 PM
Keystone

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by RS__

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

So kewlj will you now say that it was not good that you lost $8800 in one day even though you had the best session for accumulating EV? Will you also say it is not good that you lost $29,000 in one week even though you were playing with an advantage?

And if losing $8800 in one day, and $29,000 in one week and it was not good, why didn't you use any kind of stop loss?

What's the point of using a stop loss if he's just going to return the next day or week? Really try to think about it -- is there a difference in gambling today vs tomorrow vs next week vs next year?

The point of a stop loss is for kewlj to pause and think that maybe he doesn't have the edge he thinks he has. AND maybe he's not playing with a positive EV. AND maybe he's having just a bad day and it's better to stop throwing good money after bad.

The casinos never close.

ONLY AN ADDICT NEVER KNOWS WHEN ITS TIME TO QUIT.

ONLY AN ADDICT NEVER PAYS HIS OWN SON
11-20-2018, 08:32 PM
Alan Mendelson

Kewlj if your position is that pausing or stopping for the day will not help you, please tell me if it will hurt you?
11-20-2018, 08:45 PM
jbjb

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj if your position is that pausing or stopping for the day will not help you, please tell me if it will hurt you?

Sure it will. Just the same as if Caesars Palace quit for the day.
11-20-2018, 08:50 PM
RS__

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Quote:

Originally Posted by RS__

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

So kewlj will you now say that it was not good that you lost $8800 in one day even though you had the best session for accumulating EV? Will you also say it is not good that you lost $29,000 in one week even though you were playing with an advantage?

And if losing $8800 in one day, and $29,000 in one week and it was not good, why didn't you use any kind of stop loss?

What's the point of using a stop loss if he's just going to return the next day or week? Really try to think about it -- is there a difference in gambling today vs tomorrow vs next week vs next year?

The point of a stop loss is for kewlj to pause and think that maybe he doesn't have the edge he thinks he has. AND maybe he's not playing with a positive EV. AND maybe he's having just a bad day and it's better to stop throwing good money after bad.

The casinos never close.

ONLY AN ADDICT NEVER KNOWS WHEN ITS TIME TO QUIT.

Considering he's been doing this for what, 10-15 years now, I have a feeling he can figure out if he has an advantage or not and if he's playing properly or making mistakes. Now if the guy just started card counting a few months ago and he's just losing, losing, and losing, then yeah, that could make sense to pause and refine his game to make sure he's playing properly.

No idea why what you mean by throwing good money after bad.
11-20-2018, 09:30 PM
Moses

Quote:

Originally Posted by RS__

What's the point of using a stop loss if he's just going to return the next day or week?

Casino Tolerance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by RS__

Really try to think about it -- is there a difference in gambling today vs tomorrow vs next week vs next year?

It isn't gambling if you play the game of people with cards correctly. A Dealer change creates poor pen. A group floods the table. Watchful eyes are getting twitchy. Their upside tolerance is my downside stop. Why? Because in their mind, once my money moves to their side, it's now their money. Thus breaking even to me means losing to them.
11-20-2018, 09:31 PM
Moses

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj if your position is that pausing or stopping for the day will not help you, please tell me if it will hurt you?

I don't see anything wrong with a timeout to regroup.
11-20-2018, 09:52 PM
Moses

Quote:

Originally Posted by RS__

No idea why what you mean by throwing good money after bad.

In the old days, Mr Thorpe was young man scaring the shit out of casinos. He had maybe 7 cards unaccounted for out of a 52 card deck with his ratio system.

Today's math has 312 cards at 60% pen and Hilo there is 168 cards which are not considered and 144 cards given count consideration. That's a wee bit different than 45 and 7.

Just go by whatever the index says. Okay, what determines the index? Sims. Okay, what math goes into the sims? A dealer finishes his hand even after a players busts out in a straight up game in sims. Wouldn't that alter the index to the real game? Geez T3, you memorized 499 indices all slightly off.

Effect of Removal. This was determined in the 70s. What formula, or basis, went into equation the effect of removal? I know the EoRs. I'm asking how they were derived?

If I average 1923 hands a week and lose $29K with an average large bet of $500? It would definitely give me pause to took a look at my game.

Anyway, you cut it. That's still an ass in one helluva sling. No?

Soo....you make it sound like if he loses another $29k this week, he'll have his opposition right where he wants them.
11-20-2018, 10:00 PM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj if your position is that pausing or stopping for the day will not help you, please tell me if it will hurt you?

I think the best way I can answer this is to ask you a question. Let's say an hourly employee decides to take half a day off each week (unpaid). Does that hurt him? reduce his income maybe? Same thing with me. At the end of the year my income will be based on the amount of play I put in, more or less. So while I have the freedom to work when I want and take off when I want (and I do), I don't just not play for no good reason. And because I have experienced a loss that is completely within the norm of expectation and standard deviation, is not a good reason.

Now if I feel like I have lost control of my emotions that would be a good reason. And that has happened a couple times in my career, but not from losing, just the opposite, really huge wins. I just felt I needed to regroup. But that was a number of years ago. Haven't had that issue for quite some time. But I'll tell you what, I would like to have such a large win in a day again that I feel like I need to stop playing and regroup. I welcome that. :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moses

I don't see anything wrong with a timeout to regroup.

I do take time outs, as you say to regroup, but the trigger for that is not losing. I don't lose control when losing (or at least haven't yet). The times I take a time out to regroup have more to do with heat, maybe a big win or loss that I feel like drew attention. Or maybe not even a unusual win or loss, but just for whatever reason, my play that day seemed to draw attention and interest from the pit. I will take a time out from that casino or sometimes just particular pit people and treat that exactly as I would a backoff, stay away for a couple months and then return on a different shift, trying to avoid the parties involved for an additional month or two.
11-20-2018, 10:11 PM
jbjb

I'm not gonna quote Moses' full post, but, no serious counter is playing a shoe with only 60% pen unless they are getting some other added "benefits."

The problem here is the civilian crowd adding emotion to currency. Money is an inanimate object with no emotion. To us, it's just a tool.
11-20-2018, 10:18 PM
Alan Mendelson

Kewlj, I'm sorry, but you cannot use the analogy of an hourly worker. You are not working construction or retailing. You have no assurance of anything.

Now a question and this is not an attack so don't respond as if it is an attack. When you lost $8800 you said you had your best day ever for accumulating EV. Doesn't that tell you that you were wrong? If you had +EV wouldn't you be winning and not losing?
11-20-2018, 10:21 PM
kewlJ

I think some of the issue here is a lack of understanding by someone like Alan as to how a professional player approaches the game. And I don't mean that as any kind of putdown. So let me share a bit of my mental approach. I am only speaking of blackjack and really only speaking for myself. Other AP's, both machine and blackjack probably do and think about things differently.

So I pay myself and my partner once a year at the end of the year. We break the bank(roll) at the end of the year and pay ourselves profits. Until that time, I don't really think of my bankroll as my money. It is my money of course, but I think of it as the bankroll necessary to make more money. Operating funds if you will. Most businesses have funds that are necessary to make more funds.

In a sense you divorce yourself from that money while you are playing. It is just the capital needed to make more money. And the nature of this business is much the same as the stock market, it will go up and down. You really divorce yourself from those meaningless daily swings, or try to as best you can. It really is not the same as a recreational player, who loses a significant amount of money on a particular day and frets about it.

I suppose this explanation will raise even more challenges rom Alan, but that is because that is what he is looking for.
11-20-2018, 10:22 PM
Moses

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

I'm not gonna quote Moses' full post, but, no serious counter is playing a shoe with only 60% pen unless they are getting some other added "benefits."

The problem here is the civilian crowd adding emotion to currency. Money is an inanimate object with no emotion. To us, it's just a tool.

Okay, if you get 80% pen that is still 120 cards not accounted for (more than 2 decks). I agree with you. Money is just a tool. However, that tool combined with research, hard work, and invested wisely can make more than any emotional person. But I haven't met a robot yet. Rainman was just a character played by Dustin Hoffman. No? I know I'm going to get pissed. I also know it won't effect my play. Hence, if one circles the track enough times one realizes it's the same human race. Simply put, WE want, no DEMAND, that inside lane. Why? Because we earned the right by being smarter and playing with more savvy than anyone else.
11-20-2018, 10:29 PM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj, I'm sorry, but you cannot use the analogy of an hourly worker. You are not working construction or retailing. You have no assurance of anything.

You absolutely have assurance of something. It is called mathematics. The mathematics of the game and (advantage) play guarantees that over the long term, you will win X amount. And that is exactly what accumulated EV is all about. It all ties in together, Alan.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Now a question and this is not an attack so don't respond as if it is an attack. When you lost $8800 you said you had your best day ever for accumulating EV. Doesn't that tell you that you were wrong? If you had +EV wouldn't you be winning and not losing?

And here we are going back in circles. I am not attacking you, but these last 2 questions are both 100% wrong and prove your lack of understanding. Not meant as an attack, but I just don't known what to tell you. I have tried to explain it every way I can think of and you either don't understand or you don't want to understand. Either way, I don't know how else to try to explain it to you Alan.
11-20-2018, 10:34 PM
Alan Mendelson

Kewlj thank you for telling me how you manage your business, but you didn't respond to my question:

When you lost $8800 you said you had your best day ever for accumulating EV. Doesn't that tell you that you were wrong? If you had +EV wouldn't you be winning and not losing?

And please stop playing the "Alan is challenging me card".
11-20-2018, 10:36 PM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by jbjb

The problem here is the civilian crowd adding emotion to currency. Money is an inanimate object with no emotion. To us, it's just a tool.

This is a great explanation, jbjb. It is basically what I attempted to convey to Alan, in post # 191, except I took several paragraphs and it still was not as precise as this single line. :rolleyes:
11-20-2018, 10:38 PM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj thank you for telling me how you manage your business, but you didn't respond to my question:

When you lost $8800 you said you had your best day ever for accumulating EV. Doesn't that tell you that you were wrong? If you had +EV wouldn't you be winning and not losing?

Variance Alan. Variance is the single word answer to your question.
11-20-2018, 10:45 PM
Alan Mendelson

One last question. I promise.

You say you have an advantage because you have the skill to count cards. When you were losing $8800 in one day or $29,000 in one week did you ever stop to think your card counting was off?
11-20-2018, 11:00 PM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

One last question. I promise.

You say you have an advantage because you have the skill to count cards. When you were losing $8800 in one day or $29,000 in one week did you ever stop to think your card counting was off?

Short answer: No.

I have faith in my counting ability. Especially since I am a big proponent of simplicity. (this will have more meaning to some of the BJ guys). :)

Anyway, it is not any short term result, especially results like these that fall completely within the normal expectation range, that leads to questioning and re-evaluating anything. It is the much longer term losing (which is also within, but more on the outer edge of normal expectation) that starts to wear you out mentally to the point that you begin to question both yourself and the math.

I have had 4 different losing periods lasting 6 months and that is playing almost everyday. First let me define "losing period". It doesn't mean you lose every day. It just means you are behind for this segment of time. These long downturns usually consist of a rather quick and big loss, that occurs over several weeks (something along the lines of losing 29k in a week) and then a slow climb back to and eventually beyond where you were.

But the result is that every day during such a period you are behind a certain point that you were at months earlier (until you finally catch up). As I said, THIS can really wear on you. Think along the lines of going to work every day and come payday, you get no pay that week, or month, or several months in a row. Yikes! Yep that can wear you down to the point that you question everything, yourself and the math.

But the good thing is that once you go through that a couple times (I have been through 4), and come out the other side, and results once again meet up with expectation, you really begin to understand how all works.
11-20-2018, 11:06 PM
MaxPen

Quote:

Originally Posted by kewlJ

Short answer: No.

I have faith in my counting ability. Especially since I am a big proponent of simplicity. (this will have more meaning to some of the BJ guys). :)

Anyway, it is not any short term result, especially results like these that fall completely within the normal expectation range, that leads to questioning and re-evaluating anything. It is the much longer term losing (which is also within, but more on the outer edge of normal expectation) that starts to wear you out mentally to the point that you begin to question both yourself and the math.

I have had 4 different losing periods lasting 6 months and that is playing almost everyday. First let me define "losing period". It doesn't mean you lose every day. It just means you are behind for this segment of time. These long downturns usually consist of a rather quick and big loss, that occurs over several weeks (something along the lines of losing 29k in a week) and then a slow climb back to and eventually beyond where you were.

But the result is that every day during such a period you are behind a certain point that you were at months earlier (until you finally catch up). As I said, THIS can really wear on you. Think along the lines of going to work every day and come payday, you get no pay that week, or month, or several months in a row. Yikes! Yep that can wear you down to the point that you question everything, yourself and the math.

But the good thing is that once you go through that a couple times (I have been through 4), and come out the other side, and results once again meet up with expectation, you really begin to understand how all works.

KJ that was a really good explanation of the trials and tribulations of small edge advantage play. Thanks
Dan should activate a thanks button in the software and maybe a Tard button for Alan and a Gong button for Singer and his socks. ;-)
11-20-2018, 11:16 PM
kewlJ

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaxPen

KJ that was a really good explanation of the trials and tribulations of small edge advantage play. Thanks

Thank you MaxPen. "small edge advantage play"? Is that your way of calling me a salamander as Mr Grosjean sometimes does (actually with me, he has used worse language than that.) :D I take no offense. I am proud to be a card counter and a grinder.

Anyway, with that, I am tired and going to bed early. One last work day tomorrow...going to try to get in significant play and then take some time off for Thanksgiving followed by a surfing (not the web) vacation in southern Cal. I need the time away from this forum, so I plan to not log on. :D I sincerely hope everyone has a great thanksgiving with family and friends. Life really is too short. Stop and smell the roses.

Show 80 post(s) from this thread on one page