2018 start

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by jbjb

High variance is something AP's do not want.

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You are correct Most of the time an AP doesn't want personal high variance. I guess there are some who enjoy the thrill of it.

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I don't know about "enjoy the thrill of variance", but I think I am a little different than many AP's here. My AP arsenal is very limited. I call myself an AP. I play blackjack with an advantage....isn't that an AP? :rolleyes: But in my mind, I always consider myself a blackjack player, a professional blackjack player. Blackjack is my love. In my 15th year of supporting myself from blackjack play, I still love the game. (well...98% of the time...:rolleyes:).

So as a "professional blackjack player" or a "blackjack AP", variance is a big part of our game. And we learn to deal with it. Not 'enjoy' it but deal with it. Losing 8, 10, 12 grand like Alan has been obsessing about is nothing. I honestly don't think twice about such 'variance'. I can't say that I have completely mastered variance yet, because really extended periods of going backwards, weeks turning into months, still are very "trying" to me. :(

As I said, I wouldn't say I enjoy variance, but I have come to realize that for a blackjack AP (card counter), variance really is our friend. For without variance, if players just won their EV, or close to it, right on schedule, without the major swings involved, I think there would be a ton of card counter, instead of a relatively few. There would be so many the casinos wouldn't be able to offer beatable blackjack games. So I really believe....variance is my friend. :)

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

They don't contradict. And I even said that with your bankroll you can also ride out the one day slump you had.

But I continue to question your judgment. And I do that because there are people who learn from these discussions so please explain.

To start answer these questions which I asked before:

When did you realize you were losing? Why wouldn't you walk away before you lost $8800?

Having an edge is one factor to be a smart gambler, but money management is also important.

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Well, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.

I purposely didn't answer your questions the first 3 times you asked because they are irrelevant questions and frankly you are not going to understand my answers. But I will answer to humor you.

When did I realize I was losing? Don't be ridiculous. I know where I am at winning or losing maybe not to the penny, but pretty close, every single minute of play.

Why wouldn't I walk away? Because whether I was winning or losing that day, is completely irrelevant. That is just variation. I was accumulating strong EV and in the end (long-term) my actual win and EV will be very close. Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win. :cool:

I used to have a 'signature line' on another site that read: "I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day and in the end (long-term) actual wins and EV will come together."

That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP. :)

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AxelWolf I copied this post from earlier in this thread so you can see who said losing $8800 gave them a winning day. To be exact the statement was that his play that day with its accumulated EV (despite the $8800 loss) was not only his best day of the year "and will translate into actual win." He goes on to say that "EV accumulated" despite wins or losses "makes every day a winning day."

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

AxelWolf I copied this post from earlier in this thread so you can see who said losing $8800 gave them a winning day. To be exact the statement was that his play that day with its accumulated EV (despite the $8800 loss) was not only his best day of the year "and will translate into actual win." He goes on to say that "EV accumulated" despite wins or losses "makes every day a winning day."

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This is funny because Alan is re-posting this because he thinks it is so ridiculous. But it is only ridiculous to a degenerative gambler. Any AP knows exactly what I said and I suspect will agree with it. I mean even an AP that is not specifically a blackjack AP, will understand what I am saying. Only someone clueless to advantage play doesn't understand these statements.

And you know what....I will amend that right here. I'll bet most members of this site that aren't AP's understand what I am saying. I'll bet MrV and LarryS understand what I am saying. Only Alan doesn't understand. Of course Alan not only doesn't want to understand, he is trying NOT to understand. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

They don't contradict. And I even said that with your bankroll you can also ride out the one day slump you had.

But I continue to question your judgment. And I do that because there are people who learn from these discussions so please explain.

To start answer these questions which I asked before:

When did you realize you were losing? Why wouldn't you walk away before you lost $8800?

Having an edge is one factor to be a smart gambler, but money management is also important.

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Well, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.

I purposely didn't answer your questions the first 3 times you asked because they are irrelevant questions and frankly you are not going to understand my answers. But I will answer to humor you.

When did I realize I was losing? Don't be ridiculous. I know where I am at winning or losing maybe not to the penny, but pretty close, every single minute of play.

Why wouldn't I walk away? Because whether I was winning or losing that day, is completely irrelevant. That is just variation. I was accumulating strong EV and in the end (long-term) my actual win and EV will be very close. Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win. :cool:

I used to have a 'signature line' on another site that read: "I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day and in the end (long-term) actual wins and EV will come together."

That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP. :)

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AxelWolf I copied this post from earlier in this thread so you can see who said losing $8800 gave them a winning day. To be exact the statement was that his play that day with its accumulated EV (despite the $8800 loss) was not only his best day of the year "and will translate into actual win." He goes on to say that "EV accumulated" despite wins or losses "makes every day a winning day."

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He clearly explained why it was a successful day. Everyone but you understood what he was saying. I understood it to mean.... he got lots of time in with his money when he had a better than avrage +EV situation. There's a good chance if he keeps doing that he will reap the rewards.

You like to use technicalities when it suits you.
What is a winning day? He didn't say he WON MONEY. He said every day is a winning day, he could have been talking about just being alive. I know that's not what he was getting at, but that's the same kind of BS games you like to play.

I don't know if you can ACCUMULATE EV or not. I don't think you can ACCUMULATE EV, that would suggest you are due and whatever happened in the past WILL affect the future. Every hand stats over. Only new hands have value and only the value of whatever the value of the current hand/EV is, not the old ones.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

he got lots of time in with his money when he had a better than avrage +EV situation. There's a good chance if he keeps doing that he will reap the rewards.

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Are his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,
or how much he played that day?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by coach belly

And when you return from the break, the heads-up table you abandoned is vacant.

You sit down to play heads-up. How do you play until a high positive count develops, without playing negative or marginal counts?

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High counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small, strangely enough.

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And what if the first hand out of the shoe is 2 face cards for both you and the dealer?...back to the bathroom?

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You would continue to play. But for hugely negative counts you would quit. Glad to hear you acknowledge it's possible for small cards to come out first. Initially it sounded like you thought this wasn't a possibility.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

You would continue to play. But for hugely negative counts you would quit.

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How many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by tableplay

You would continue to play. But for hugely negative counts you would quit.

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How many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Everyone but you understood what he was saying.

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I don't know what everyone understood, and frankly neither do you.

But I do know that I don't understand the conflicting statements made within the same quote...

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I know where I am at winning or losing maybe not to the penny, but pretty close, every single minute of play.

I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by tableplay

You would continue to play. But for hugely negative counts you would quit.

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How many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?

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OK...you've established with that answer that you have no credibility.

You don't need to answer any more of my questions...you're a fraud.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

he got lots of time in with his money when he had a better than avrage +EV situation. There's a good chance if he keeps doing that he will reap the rewards.

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Are his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,
or how much he played that day?

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None of that should matter going forward. If someone had a situation where they had 10 million in EV in a few hours of time betting. Now suddenly that opportunity dried up, and yet they broke even. That doesn't mean they will somehow run really well on other stuff in the future and make 10 million.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

he got lots of time in with his money when he had a better than avrage +EV situation. There's a good chance if he keeps doing that he will reap the rewards.

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Are his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,
or how much he played that day?

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None of that should matter going forward. If someone had a situation where they had 10 million in EV in a few hours of time betting. Now suddenly that opportunity dried up, and yet they broke even. That doesn't mean they will somehow run really well on other stuff in the future and make 10 million.

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Thank you for a sensible answer.

Just to be clear...despite what he thinks, the fact that he played many hands with an advantage on the day that he lost
has absolutely no effect on his future results.

He did not accumulate EV...that is not possible.

Is that correct?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by coach belly

How many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?

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OK...you've established with that answer that you have no credibility.

You don't need to answer any more of my questions...you're a fraud.

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Excellent. So you won't be asking anymore questions ever again when I post right ? since they have no value right ?

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Originally Posted by tableplay

So you won't be asking anymore questions ever again when I post right ? since they have no value right ?

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You answered questions that were asked of others, then I continued the examination with you since you seemed interested in helping find the truth,
when others were not.

But when faced with a question that you could not answer, you were not man enough to admit that, and provided a nonsense answer.

I'm going to continue to ask questions, but not of you since you really don't have any information other than what's obvious...

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Originally Posted by tableplay

High counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small.
You are more than welcome to play though hugely negative counts if you want

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Are his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,
or how much he played that day?

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None of that should matter going forward. If someone had a situation where they had 10 million in EV in a few hours of time betting. Now suddenly that opportunity dried up, and yet they broke even. That doesn't mean they will somehow run really well on other stuff in the future and make 10 million.

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Thank you for a sensible answer.

Just to be clear...despite what he thinks, the fact that he played many hands with an advantage on the day that he lost
has absolutely no effect on his future results.

He did not accumulate EV...that is not possible.

Is that correct?

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Let's not forget he never said how much EV he accumulated. That 8800 probably doesn't represent the EV he had at that time.

I think someone can explain it much better than I can.

It would be nice to be able to sell accumulated EV, even for a discount.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by tableplay

So you won't be asking anymore questions ever again when I post right ? since they have no value right ?

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You answered questions that were asked of others, then I continued the examination with you since you seemed interested in helping find the truth,
when others were not.

But when faced with a question that you could not answer, you were not man enough to admit that, and provided a nonsense answer.

I'm going to continue to ask questions, but not of you since you really don't have any information other than what's obvious...

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Originally Posted by tableplay

High counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small.
You are more than welcome to play though hugely negative counts if you want

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Ok so the answer to my question then is yes you won't be asking me anymore questions, when I post. Having obvious information BTW, is different than having fraudulent information. So which is it fraudulent or obvious ? The two are mutually exclusive.
In my own BJ endeavors, I will abandon a negative account once an hour if such occurs which is in tune with normal habits if I am planning a session which is that long. Also, no matter what, abandoning one negative count per casino session is better than abandoning zero of them - which I assume you will think is a fraudulent statement.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Mickey did I read this correctly: you found a one minute play that's worth $15, and isn't that $900 an hour?

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Yep, that's right. The seat time is worth $900 an hour. I think I get about 2 hours seat time a year on that play.

The anecdote about abandoning negative counts once per hour doesn't even jibe with what you wrote earlier...you're spinning yarns.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

How many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?

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Originally Posted by tableplay

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Originally Posted by tableplay

So which is it fraudulent or obvious ?

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That is obvious fraudulent information. It's nonsense, no attempt to be genuine...you're a fraud.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Mickey did I read this correctly: you found a one minute play that's worth $15, and isn't that $900 an hour?

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Yep, that's right. The seat time is worth $900 an hour. I think I get about 2 hours seat time a year on that play.

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I hope Mr Boz saw this.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

The anecdote about abandoning negative counts once per hour doesn't even jibe with what you wrote earlier...you're spinning yarns.

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Originally Posted by tableplay

So which is it fraudulent or obvious ?

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That is obvious fraudulent information. It's nonsense, no attempt to be genuine...you're a fraud.

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Make sure you set everyone straight anytime I post then, by posting that I am a fraud as a reply to each of my posts.