It has already been shown that if you play 1 million hands, variance will be crushed. Are you planning to quit forever after you win your pressed 10 bets ?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
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It has already been shown that if you play 1 million hands, variance will be crushed. Are you planning to quit forever after you win your pressed 10 bets ?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I didn't play a million hands over 8 trips pal. And even if I had, the way you get at a 7% chance that someone may wind up ahead even after 1 million hands is that you have to still assume some chance of variance extending out over even that many hands, and that is the calculation that your flat line simple number crunching doesn't take into effect. Which is why I said that you set up the whole problem wrong in the first place.
And in any case, you still calculated the odds of coming out ahead after just 8 trips at twenty million to one, which is absurd. You never figured in any variance, because you have no idea what it is or means and couldn't begin to know how to input it into a simple linear number crunching, since variance isn't inputed into a simple linear number crunch. You just keep talking about 49.3% probability. Good night. Enjoy future MDawg adventures.
You have virtually no chance of being ahead after 1 million hands. How did you arrive at a 7% calculation ? I stand by my 20 million to 1 calculation. I even verified the methodology since it agrees with that at betfirm.com.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
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MD: I never said non AP's, ploppies, average Joe can't win, they certainly can. AAMOF I said it's not even mathematically unreasonable that you could have won. The totality of everything you have said and your entire persona adds up to bullshit.
Your system is a mathematical loser, unless in fact you actually have a mathematical advantage, but you're just not savvy enough to realize it. If not, assuming you're actually winning thus far, eventually you will lose if you're playing a -EV game.
I don't need to float lines of credit, I have cash and can put up front money.
Wow you really are the low of the low. I am not mentally ill you moron, I deal with depression which is VERY common. It’s just laughable that you think I posted what I did because of mental illness. I take antidepressants, I’m seeing a wonderful girl, I have a good income and great family and friends. I’m currently as happy as they come even though I’m bored from being stuck inside. I posted what I posted at WoV because I wanted to say it not cause my mental illness told me to dumbass. Btw nice try trying to get me nuked but that wasn’t going to work.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Also, MD in regards to you calling me 2 faced please show me evidence of that. You're grasping at straws by gloaming onto what was said by one person in which I have only had forum interactions with. The situation was unique and complicated. Let's just say things went down exactly how he believes it to have It would be borderline 2 facedness and not of a high significance in the grand scheme of things. Certainly not to any level that should have any real bearing on who I am over all as a person or how I conduct myself in general. If he feels strongly about it and truly believes that while thinking the worst, Ill accept it. Ill apologize to him and I'll be mindful and make double sure I don't do anything that would be considered 2 faced in the future. When Mickey said what he said it seemed to him I was being 2 faced and attacking him, if it had been him I was quoting he would have had good reason to think that. HOWEVER, It was a mistake as I was addressing and quoted someone else.
I noticed you have resorted to getting personal i.e. the Captain Morgan thing, calling 2 faced There was the fact you were spreading lies about me living in the Northtown ghetto but since that's a complete lie and known to be one by many people on the forums no need to go further, it just goes to show you don't care about the truth.
The Captain Morgan thing doesn't bother me in the slightest. I have been more than open with the fact that I liked to party with way too many drinks at times. Most everyone knows this. I have Partied hard with lots of members from the forums. I'm a social drinker who can over do it. I never drank at home, I don't beat my wife(no kids), I don't make crazy drunk posts, I don't have to have it. I went more than a year without as of February , I went to a party over a month ago where I drank a good amount and haven't wanted to drink since then.
If the Captain Morgan and the 2 faced thing is all you got....God blessed me.
MDawg is the Inspector Clouseau of gambling math.
This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?
This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
Mickey had a near death experience just about 4 months ago! He has every right to be a little ornery and crotchety!Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?
This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
That doesn't explain the 5 years prior! J/K :DQuote:
Originally Posted by TashaMickey had a near death experience just about 4 months ago! He has every right to be a little ornery and crotchety!Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
This is the expert button pusher Mickeycrimm in action. I know he claims to be sober the last couple years, but what about before that during his prime making all that coin?
This is the guy lecturing, threatening, and cursing out everyone.
........................................
Dawg: you've been booted off of WOV again.......................poor little you....................so unfair.
And you're taking an awful lot of heat here. That's a real shame. It can't be much fun.
I am just posting to reassure you.
You will never have any kind of problem at gamblingforums.com.
You're going to feel real comfy over there with all the other big systems winners there.
They're going to eat your stuff up.
You'll always have a home there.
Enjoy.
PokerGrinder, anyone who would post something like what you posted, if you are saying it did not come from the darkness of mental illness, is trash.
Yes half smoke, you don't have to tell me that I was booted off WOV :D I know, and yes it is being discussed to death at GF, and at WOV itself.
The kind of bozos you have at WOV are like the weirdo sock puppet who came out of nowhere a week ago, who now claims with a post he made today that "at least four properties" are currently looking into how MDawg was overcomped. Right, so while their doors are boarded shut with plywood and no one is at work and thousands in the casino industry are being laid off, in the midst of ALL THAT they are trying to figure out who this high roller is on some internet forum and whether or not he received too many comps. As one of you have said, "You can't make this stuff up." :cool:
We're green in the market again today! Started off with some hesitancy, but looking good right now.
And thats when I'm in a good mood. You dont want to see me in a bad mood. Haha!Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
So let's go the variance route then for 1 million hands played:Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
1. The mean # of hands won (as Player) at Baccarat is 0.493*1,000,000 or 493,000 hands won since the player will win 49.3% of his hands on average.
2. The standard deviation of playing 1,000,000 hands is sqrt(n*p*q) where p = 0.493 and q = 1-.493 and n=1,000,000. This equates to 499.95 hands.
3. To get to a break-even point of 500000, you would have to be (500,000-493,000)/499.5 standard deviations away from the mean on the positive side which equates to 1,000.1 standard deviations. Note that 3 standard deviations is considered quite unusual - I'm not sure what adjective could be used for observing a 1000 standard deviation event.
4. If you don't flat bet, then you'd better get your guessing right, like Mickey says, because you are playing a million hands of guesswork. Not to mention that if you have a sequence of N bets that are not flat, the sequence can broken up into N different flat bets. So if you a sequence like 5,10,5000 as your sequence of bets, you can think of it as making a bet of 5 (.493 chance of winning). Then going back the hotel to bang your wife, and then, since you are a high roller, the dealer was waiting for you to come back, after you finished with your wife, to deal the 2nd hand of the shoe, so that you could make your 10 dollar bet. Well then you are horny again and go back to the room for more. Again the dealer waits, and then you make your 5000 bet when he deals the 3rd hand from the shoe. Like, the other two bets, there is a 49.3% chance of winning the bet. The chance is not greater than it was for the other two bets. Good luck with your guesses.
I have been in touch with all my hosts and they are all at home, catching up on work around the house. I don't expect that any of them will be laid off though because each of them is very high up there as far as executive host level.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
According to this, just released Sunday, many Vegas casinos are looking to reopen as soon as April 17th:
https://travelzork.com/vegas-news-march-29-2020/
Included in this article are various notes about extensions on player card rewards.
When they reopen, if the casinos ban all smoking, that would be great!
But otherwise, the sort of thing described here as some international casinos reopen
https://www.wsj.com/articles/casino....au-11585280952
-no drink service (no drinking or eating at the tables at all), players must wear masks and have their temperatures checked upon entry and perhaps regularly, doesn't sound like so much fun. Players must also stay away from each other and the numbers allowed at each table are limited.
However players having to stay away from each other wouldn't bother me - I generally prefer to play, especially Baccarat, alone.
In general though what they describe in Macau sounds like a downer. I think you'd really have to be desperate to gamble to deal with all that. I'd pass.
Gotta get back to the market. Lot of opportunity to trade extra shares today we have some good elasticity on some stocks, and I haven't done a trade since last week.
The more MDawg writes the dumber he looks. He's now saying you need calculus to do gambling math. That is wrong and totally stupid.
How would you know, bubblehead?
https://i.imgur.com/UJGBLv8m.jpg
Hey Mickey give me your address I'll mail you a cigar.
https://i.imgur.com/ZqbSXPOm.jpg
I don't smoke ever I just started picking them up free from the cigarette girls last few trips just because I can.
Several weeks, months ago, don't pay attention that much came up in red. Mike gave me three days for what I can't remember. I criticized Babs last night for spewing out nonsense figures from the far left news sources she listens to, who only want to discredit the administration. Three more days in red, no martingale!
I was surprised to see YOU in Red. Shame that Political things rhat were considered NORMAL and wrre very common before August 12/13 2019 now are Suspension worthy! :\Quote:
Originally Posted by House of Orange
Because I know gambling math and you don't. And I don't smoke but thanks anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Hi Orange, welcome, (temporary) expat.
At first I thought you were suspended for presenting the VCT website at WOV, because I did see that post of yours this morning, but you're saying it was due to some political comment putting down BBB?
What did I say that was so bad? Granted it probably hurt because everything that I said was true including that your wife (if she is real and you are actually rich) is most likely a gold digger and only with you for your money. I love how you’re so hurt that someone random anonymous person on the internet thinks you’re an arrogant prick. Trust me, while people in your day to day life might not tell you what they think of you I guarantee I am FAR from the first person to think you’re an arrogant prick. I’m not sure what my depression has to do with me being able to realize the guy who refers to himself in the third person and talks about how great he is is an egomaniac. I thought that fact was pretty obvious.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Wasting your time PG, as we all are. We are giving this egomaniac exactly what he wants and needs. Attention.Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerGrinderWhat did I say that was so bad? Granted it probably hurt because everything that I said was true including that your wife (if she is real and you are actually rich) is most likely a gold digger and only with you for your money. I love how you’re so hurt that someone random anonymous person on the internet thinks you’re an arrogant prick. Trust me, while people in your day to day life might not tell you what they think of you I guarantee I am FAR from the first person to think you’re an arrogant prick. I’m not sure what my depression has to do with me being able to realize the guy who refers to himself in the third person and talks about how great he is is an egomaniac. I thought that fact was pretty obvious.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
You, I and everyone with common sense knows this won’t end good for him. He will have a losing streak as the odds say. And then he will go on tilt and lose everything he says he won, and more.
It’s why the casinos roll out the red carpet and welcome him back with open arms. It’s not to welcome a guy who figured out the holy grail of Baccarat and can kick their ass trip after trip.
Here's the PM I sent him, after made he made that post, making the mistake of thinking that I was dealing with a man, and actually extending an olive branch.
https://i.imgur.com/vuksZd4.jpg
And this is the response he gave,
https://i.imgur.com/W4Ke2M3.jpg
I told the Wizard that when I extended the olive branch, that I envisioned a sincere apology from PokerGrinder, and that I was quite prepared to come in and argue for no punishment for him whatsoever, no suspension at all, until I saw his response. And at that point, of course I told the Wizard that I could see from the hollowness of PG's "maybe" I shouldn't have said that apology, that the guy was trash, and that the Wizard could do whatever he wanted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
My guess is you just opened the door for a nuke at WoV.
My guess is that you're talking out your ass again BOZ. The Wizard posted all over WOV that Poker Grinder was on the phone with him apologizing, and the Wizard is aware and has been aware for a week now of those PMs, which are from this forum, not from WOV.
I talked to my friend who has spent most of the past two years at Wynn/Encore, and he's actually raring to check back in April 18th. Unbelievable.
Another potential issue I thought of - housekeeping - the maids. So we're going to be staying in hotel rooms where maids are going to come in and clean after moving from guest room to guest room? Even if that's not going to spread coronavirus due to precautions taken, just the thought that it might seems to me would deter hotel guests. We dismissed with pay all of the domestics who come to our house, other than the one live in. Would I or anyone else really want to stay in an environment where an outsider comes in every day to clean for you, an outsider who has been in so many other peoples' rooms all day?
If you are not nuked after sharing these PM’s, KJ died in vain.
The PMs are from THIS forum. I'm posting them here. Any more questions?
Anyway, back to the subject matter at hand, anyone reading those PMs may see that I extended this PokerGrinder an olive branch, and the response he made shows what kind of person he is.
I've never said anything to this guy in the slightest that was impolite, before this incident.
Yea, who touched you as a kid that you need this much attention?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
C'mon Boz, how old are you? Seventy? You get to that age and you still talk like a child.
I guess your goal is to detract from what really happened here, with your friend PokerGrinder. You're welcome to him!
Different rules for different people. It has always been that way at WoV. It depends on if you are one of Wizzy "buddys" or not.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Looks like you took out where you called PG trash. 2nd thoughts?
Don’t worry, I screenshot it so you can’t deny it.
The guy is far from trash, but I’m willing to say you are rich white trash....with money.
Oh so that's the issue? I thought the issue was sharing VCT at the VCT forum. Give me a break old man.
PokerGrinder, call the Wizard up and tell him what I said about you if it hurts you as badly as it seems to hurt Boz.
Old man? Whatever you want to think. You come off as an egotistical rich guy who needs attention. And you can’t stand that most of us see you as a fraud. And all your exploits can’t make you look like anything other than a jackass. Maybe trash is not the right word but since you used it on PG, I’m good using it on you.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
What you think I can't control, but if someone comes along and posts the kind of stuff Poker Grinder posts, that means that he is trash. Of course, given that you posted something along the same lines against the Wizard's family, I am not surprised that you would come off defending PokerGrinder. If that is what you are doing. There's still time to jump ship and confess that you don't think that what PokerGrinder did was right.
Up until this point Boz, I had no problem with you. But if you condone that sort of thing, then we part ways right here and now. You don't say shit against a person's family, misguided, false, or otherwise. It's not done.
I think you may see from my PM to PokerGrinder that I was not taking any of it personally. Was willing to let it go. Until he came back with more of his same bluster and showed me that he wasn't worth extending an olive branch to.
Poor MDawg. I’m starting to feel sorry for you. I’ve been keeping up with this thread from an entertainment standpoint for a while now, and finally feel the need to speak up.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
You guys are piling on and killing poor MDawg I give him credit for always responding back, but any reasonable person (and I’m close to reasonable since I did sleep at a Holliday Inn Express when they were still open) can see he’s losing, and I mean losing big time...to where I’m feeling sorry for him. It’s almost like when people ruthlessly attack ZeeBara on Blackjack the Forum.
Anyway, for what it’s worth I feel sorry for you, MDawg. I don’t believe you, but I do feel sorry for you.
Hey Kj, did you notice I had no politics in this post. I don’t need any praise, just wanted you to notice.
:cool:
You are seriously mistaken if you think I trashed or said anything negative about the Wizards family. And despite the attempts to whitewash it over there and change the narrative, he knows I didn’t. I in fact said the way he treats his wife online is despicable. The way his online persona drools over women, objectifies them and is always talking about his type is demeaning to his family.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I believe my entire post is out there on GF if you want to do the research. I don’t care because I know what I posted and many others do. It was totally about Mike and another member there who also bragged a lot. Many came to Mike’s defense but he did remove the parts that were negative toward him and made it more about the insults to Soopoo. And of course I knew I would be nuked. I was long on borrowed time over there and once politics was banned, there wasn’t much there for me.
As for what PG said, I agree bringing your wife/ girlfriend (honestly not sure) into it was wrong. And he realized it after posting it I’m sure. But I’m also with him on the rest of it. You surely know it’s coming and you obviously can take it. For some reason you are willing to deal with it and still want the attention.
PG and I have little in common and I certainly have had issues with his politics over the years. But we seem to see the same things in you. You certainly create strange bedfellows with your stories.
[QUOTE=The Boz;99971]It would seem so.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
And as well I apologize for some of the things I said above about you (Boz). They were said in the heat of the moment. I would in fact delete them if I could.
Lmao mdawg. That’s what you call an olive branch? Asking someone if they are off their meds? Fuck me, I guess in your beautiful little made up world insults are also olive branches.
Unlike you, I don’t care what you think of me. Trash? Fuck I’ve been called worse and I’ve lived to tell the tale. You’ve decided to attack someone who is well thought of over at WoV, no that doesn’t mean something in the grand scheme of things but you paint me to be this terrible person that I’m clearly not. Just off the top of my head there are countless people that would have no problem telling you how nice a person I am and that includes the Wizard himself who I consider a friend. When I left WoV for a month due to the DarkOz AP secrets spilling threads I got 3 different PM’s begging me to reconsider leaving WoV. Btw I had never had any interaction that I could remember with them on the site. These people just enjoyed my posting that much that they were sad to see me go. If you were gone tomorrow I doubt there would be 5 people on that site that would give a shit.
So call me trash all you like but I’ll compare my morals and values to your garbage existence every day and twice on Sundays.
Isn't that the truth. You know there's a problem with yourself when so many different people, including ones who don't even normally get along have the same opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
All 3 of Nathans sock puppets don't count.Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerGrinder
Thought I'd take a quick glance at MY thread (You're all just prisoners here, of your own device) before drifting off, and I was reading that lonnng whining post, thinking damn! I had no idea Axel was that insecure. He's talking about how nice he is because someone said so on the internet? Wow, I had no idea he was that needy. Trash? Axel's been called worse? and then I scrolled back and realized...OH! RIGHT! PokerGrinder is writing that. No wonder! Yeah I didn't think Axel would wear his heart on his sleeve like that. Okay! makes perfect sense, it's PokerGrinder! saying all that. Just don't hang yourself please, and I am being serious, no joking at all buddy, you sound rather...desperate.
https://i.imgur.com/psQen1Ym.jpg
I wouldn't want that on my conscience and then all these months where I've remained nice and polite to you out of consideration for your mental illness would have been for nought.
PokerGrinder,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkoPq5AOCOA
I just shake my head cause you really are a moron. I’m not sure why I keep responding to you cause you clearly have a thick impenetrable head. You are an egotistical douchebag and nobody here or at WoV wants to hear your BS. I’m done wasting my time with you and that is saying something since I have nothing but time these days. I’d rather be bored than argue with a grown ass baby.
Wow, THAT came out of left field. WHY would I use my Sock Puppets to beg Poker Grinder to reconsider leaving WOV? Poker Grinder treated me like shit so many times it wasn't even funny! I DID however use my Sock Puppets to try to convince them to let KEWLJ back however and that backfired on me big time when Kewlj rallied for my permenant banning after I tried multiple times to help him out.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfAll 3 of Nathans sock puppets don't count.Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerGrinder
Welcome to the club Tasha. Kewj tried to get me banned too. He’s a real sleaze ball. He believes in censorship, kind of like most liberals.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha
When he doesn’t agree with you, and he’s not smart enough to argue his point (which is most the time), he runs to the moderator and lobbies to get someone banned. When that fails, he then just whines and goes into name calling mode, but usually nothing creative.
Yes Kj, there was some politics in this thread. I called you a whiny liberal, which is actually a nice description of you.
Trash (you know who you are), you will be back to post more about me for two reasons:
(1) You are obsessed with me.
(2) You are mentally ill such that any obsession bounces around in your head until it drives you to distraction.
(And we could say the same thing about your mentally ill pal, DarkOz.)
Both of you enjoy your break standing silently in the corner...now if you two may just be good and STAY in the corner. We shall see...I doubt it.
I tried to give you a break, but any snot nosed little punk like yourself deserves what he gets.
Cya soon!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mkoPq5AOCOA
I missed an opp (no not because I was posting about PokerGrinder, this was much earlier in the morning) to jump on an AMZN trade at 1920. I was too cheap and put it in at 1919 and it didn't get quite exactly that low.
Grump says that we're in for two weeks of pain...stock market is down today. My long term AMZN is dragging me down today, but it could be worse, AMZN only down twenty at the moment. Why a mail order company even dropped so much during a time when mail order is key, doesn't entirely make sense.
BTW so I have a minute here's the post from the Wizard
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...ts/#post625263
where he didn't know that the players deal the cards at a Big Baccarat table <<a dealer still deals the cards at the big table. I think it is in the James Bond movies where the player does it>> and confessed that <<I have played almost no baccarat at all.>>
Which is the exact same boat all of you "vocal critics" are in too, correct?
https://i.imgur.com/A2WqkKu.jpg
I get it, you don't have to play a game to read what others have said about it, and you couldn't pay me to stand in front of a machine and push buttons (boring), but still, I wouldn't be spouting theories on something I had never engaged in. Trust me, there is more to Baccarat than just heads or tails, or else I wouldn't have cleaned up on it so well over the years.
Plato described the struggles cave dwellers had with comprehending the real objects that cast the shadows they had previously been confined to viewing. Here, the varieties of bizarre interpretations of MDawg’s Adventures make clear that some of you have never experienced or even been close to mainline gambling. But that doesn’t make the substance any less real. There is a real world of high rollers like MDawg out there, beyond the shadows of your caves.
Nothing described here is all that unusual, or…is it merely that my friends and I have all lived life very fully and we assume (evidently incorrectly?) that others will be able to relate?
In any case, this is not Gonzo journalism! This is the truth.
AMZN is being punished along with a lot of other good companies. The problem is the economy is going to be hurt for a long time. And earnings just won’t justify prices that we were at a couple months ago. While Amazon is best positioned long term to benefit from it, until we see numbers the assumption is they are hurting too. Sending out messages that needed items are being given priority didn’t help. And we don’t know how many of the individual sellers they process are even operating. Along with the lack of purchasing of items considered discretionary by many in these times.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Add in the fact that many individuals are incorrectly (In my opinion) cashing in their holdings, which are mostly Mutual Funds. Which is requiring sale of quality holdings.
We are basically at the point where earnings are going to be ugly and we lost a year of the greatest economy in our country. No amount of stimulus or handouts can fix that. We are going to see a lot more volatility in the markets before this is over.
Yes it's scary over all. Having missed the dream opportunity to sell everything in February, and go short, I think we just have to hang in there and ride it out.
Pipe "Dreams" like that are unrealistic though. I actually did sell everything right before the dot com crash that started in 2000, but not because I was smart just because I needed the money to invest in something else. But other than that one time in my life where market timing has worked out, which came right after I started investing in the stock market as a pup, I have just rode it out through thick and thin. I think that is what you are supposed to do anyway if you are an investor, just buy and mold.
No one knows what will happen. And yes Boz I do agree that even a trillion or two trillion is just a drop in the bucket against a (possibly) failing economy. You're spot on there as well with a lot of what else you just posted.
But yah never know...right when you think things will go in the toilet definitively the market surprises you and roars.
This is Barney
I don't understands why forum personages give the Mr Mdogs personages such shits about his gambling posts. The LID (who is a professional craps player) also makes much monies at casinos. In fact he had nice hit on a slut machine device in early February which got him ahead for year and me a head at casino. Only problem is for some reason the casino has not yet mailed the winnings to the LID and when they used to answer phone they said the check in mail. Now days they don't even answer phone. Here's the big win on last casino roadtrip that he vulutred from the slut machine device:
Keep your bid in. It looks like she could test that area again.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Gee, that looks like the recent hit posted in the Big Wins thread. At least it's probably from the same high limit room.
https://youtu.be/kGZ_izHNi_8Quote:
Originally Posted by BarneyThis is Barney
I don't understands why forum personages give the Mr Mdogs personages such shits about his gambling posts. The LID (who is a professional craps player) also makes much monies at casinos. In fact he had nice hit on a slut machine device in early February which got him ahead for year and me a head at casino. Only problem is for some reason the casino has not yet mailed the winnings to the LID and when they used to answer phone they said the check in mail. Now days they don't even answer phone. Here's the big win on last casino roadtrip that he vulutred from the slut machine device:
My experience is that when/if it retests it drops even more. What do you think?Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I could end up too cheap again and putting it in at 1917 will get me nada though, that's the other side of the coin.
A stock trading friend of mine used to say that I "keep doing the same thing, risking partial fills, playing silly games" trying to get the absolute bottom (or top, on a short) for a 1000 share fill on a big stock like AMZN, but it would also save my ass sometimes from some less than high probability trades.
Eventually he had to concede that whatever I was doing, was working.
Might be because of that fired employee the other day. VERY politically incorrect!Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Although I have been doing a fair amount of day trading recently I still consider myself to be a long term investor first. Depends on what your time horizon is whether or not that dollar or two is going to make much difference. I bought some AMZN in my wife’s IRA in Feb. 2017 at $810. We still own it. Will probably be one that after we’re gone our daughter will own.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgMy experience is that when/if it retests it drops even more. What do you think?Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I could end up too cheap again and putting it in at 1917 will get me nada though, that's the other side of the coin.
There it goes, I just saw a 1915 handle.
Those holding Amazon could write out-of-the-money covered calls against it.
Covered calls are so...thirty years ago. We were laughing at the old school brokers who suggested them when I first started trading end of the '90s, and they are inappropriate today too. When a stock like AMZN starts running then a covered call just means that you sold your birthright for a bowl of cold porridge.
Anyway I just got shut out again I noticed it plummeted so I put in an order at 1903 when the bid was 1903 and change. Now it's 1907 and change. I shoulda gone in at the mid, 1904.
I don't like to stare at the ticker all day long. I just pop in every now and then, and see if what's there looks appetizing. I don't trade every day.
I have my order in still at 1903, see what happens.
It's 1911, no pointing leaving it up now. Cancelling, going to walk away.
You can close them out and then sell new ones with higher strikes on the way up. That's why I specified out of the money.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Maybe, but wouldn't you agree that they are better for a stock where watching its price is more like watching paint dry? which, there actually aren't too many stocks like that these days, volatility has been extreme for many years now.
I have three long term holds in the green today that possibly used to fit that bill. (CLX, PG, & WMT )Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I think I can get it for 1903 now but it's so close to the bell. Pretty low probability trade in my book.
It depends on the individual. You'll collect less premiums on sold covered calls for less volatile stocks of course, but people use that strategy to enhance their dividends on these buy and hold type stocks. Obviously for volatile stocks the covered calls require continuous monitoring so that they can be rolled off on dips and rolled out in time to capture more premium when they get near expiration.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Before I ever got involved with stocks, I remember my Dad's broker telling him, "Time to buy QCOM." "Time to sell QCOM." I guess at that time, it was a cyclical stock that cycled between two very narrow numbers. Not very long at all after that I started my own stock trading and investing and of course by then QCOM was the one that MSNBC was shouting about every day QCOM! QCOM! QCOM! as it marched STRAIGHT up until December 1999 when it started to fade, along with most everything else. So, you just never know, anyone who had been booking covered calls on that stock back then would have missed out on a fortune.
Put it this way - of ALL the stocks I have held long term the ONLY one that would have worked for a covered call would have been T. Other than dividends that stock has rarely popped its head above even what I paid for it.
Otherwise, for the most part, covered calls have been scoffed at during any periods of bull runs, which we just came off an almost twelve year one, no? If they have worked for you, that's good.
My portfolio is 100% preferred stocks (fixed income) which are all virtually non-optionable (a couple of the adr preferreds that I own are or were optionable, but I am fine with the fixed dividend payments), so I don't use this strategy. When I used to buy the commons, the covered calls worked since they were low volatility dividend payers. However covered calls will work on volatile stocks and there are ETFs,hedge funds and mutual funds that actually use covered calls on volatile stocks as part of the investment strategy/total return. IIRC, the well known and highly-regarded Hussman Fund (https://www.hussmanfunds.com/strategic-growth-fund/) uses this strategy.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Hussman funds doesn't seem to be doing too well:
Average annual total returns for periods ended 02/28/20
1 Year -10.54% that's MINUS ten percent
3 Year -5.01% MINUS five percent
5 Year -7.78% MINUS seven percent
10 Year -6.99% MINUS six percent
Since Inception (07/24/00) 0.11%
Did you know that they've almost never booked a profit, or do you just like to copy paste stuff without knowing what it is, such as you did with your gambling statistics analysis? (Sorry :cool: I couldn't help making that crack, forgive me.)
In any case, let's talk real world. Just one stock for example. I've owned NFLX continuously since 2010. The first year I owned it, it dropped something like 50%. I held on, actually bought more to average in. It's been a meteoric rise ever since. You're talking "theory" again about being able to use covered calls on volatile stocks. The real world, is that even on many average days I'd wake up to find that NFLX had gapped up ridiculously, before the market even opened, let alone on the days when splits were announced, and it would gap up even more ridiculously - all in the pre-market. So your "theory" of "continuous monitoring so that they can be rolled off on dips" doesn't work if a stock gaps up a hundred points in the pre- - you can't even deal with options in the extended hours, even if it were possible to deal with a gap up before it happened, which it would not be. Not to mention all the earnings days when the stock jumped up crazily exactly five minutes after the bell.
I don't mean to sound disparaging, but when it comes to either Baccarat or stocks, I talk only about that with which I have personal experience. I actually have written some calls on AAPL and some other stocks many years ago, and it worked, but I was just lucky that I didn't get sold out. I'd just think that if anyone is going to go on and on about something, that it would have to be something with which he has intense, or at least some, personal experience, and now you're telling me that you've never even written a covered call.
Unfortunately, at these internet forums, the loudest mouthed ones (and I am not talking about you, but some of the others), are the ones who talk the most about things with which they have ABSOLUTELY no personal experience.
And again, I completely encourage this covered call discussion and it is a worthwhile one, but when you've never even written any calls yourself how can you tell me about theories that indicate that they might work on the volatile stocks of today?
How about the Wizard himself?
Here's the post from the Wizard
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...ts/#post625263
where he didn't know that the players deal the cards at a Big Baccarat table <<a dealer still deals the cards at the big table. I think it is in the James Bond movies where the player does it>> and confessed that <<I have played almost no baccarat at all.>>
Well anyway, as they say, like father, like son, so no wonder so many at WOV are so quick to spout theories about things with which they have zero personal experience. Theory will only get you so far.
There are more things in stocks and Baccarat, than are dreamt of in your philosophy, TablePlayer.
I already wrote in an earlier post that I have written covered calls on dividend paying stocks and it worked out well. I am older now and so I just buy preferred stocks below par and hold them which is a much more hands off approach. There are literally hundreds of hedge funds that employ the strategy of writing covered calls on volatile stocks. Generally these are written far out of the money. Yes if the stock goes through the strike then it will get called, but that's why they are written far out of the money so that the stock participates in the high degree of capital gain. Furthermore, a hedge fund manager isn't going to wait until option expiration so that an in the money stock gets called, these get rolled once the stock gets close to the strike. As for my statistics, I didn't cut and paste anything. I used the data that Half Smoke provided and used probability (the binomial pdf) to get the chance of the event occurring based on the data. I also calculated the variance and showed that you would need a 1000 standard deviation event to get ahead if a million hands are played on a game with a house edge like Baccarat. I'd love to see the analytics that went behind the garbage 7% calculation on WOV - maybe it was just for a small number of hands (even then 7% is not a very good chance of observing the results you post). If you actually believe that finishing ahead in 12 sessions out of 12 sessions of a low probability event wouldn't yield a probability of virtually zero that's your problem. You are raising something to the 12th power and that something is an event that only has a small chance of occurring. Finally, if you vary your bet sizes on a given number of hands and then you repeat this process over and over again, your higher bets will eventually converge on 49.3% winning bets weather they started out below this or above this as you claim. I don't see any of your proponents racing over to Atlantic City or Vegas to try this out (back when the casinos were open at least).Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
What am I supposed to think? You copy/paste some stuff calculating an irrelevant STATIC statistic that doesn't take into account any variance? You copy/paste a link to a fund that has been LOSING money every year as an example of actuation of a successful covered call strategy? It would seem that you don't even read what you spew out very closely before launching it. I have a series 65 license but that doesn't mean a thing - what does is that at one point I was trading a half percent of all of the shares of GOOGL in one day, trading 1000 share blocks 5 times. What this means is that if there were 200 people in the world trading as I was trading on GOOGL, that would comprise ALL of the day's trading volume! How many people can say THAT?
So get out of here with your "theories" until you've done it. You've never sold a covered call on a volatile stock, which any decent stock worth owning for a decade or two now, is a volatile stock. I was not sure what you meant by "I am older now" - for some reason I assumed that you're a relatively young guy like me, but then I suppose now that I think about it, pinball hasn't been in fashion for a some time? In any case, if you are buying "preferred stocks below par and hold[ing] them" that sounds like someone who is near retirement if not past retirement?
My Dad has friends who are pushing eighty that trade, just to feel relevant. They have a lot of money, but they're also willing to risk a lot of it daily.
If we decide to buy bonds, or buy stocks that never move, we'll give you a call. I could put you in touch with a dozen of my friends who invest in the stock market, many of them with a ton more money than I have. If you tried to sell any one of them on the idea of selling a covered call on most of the stocks they own they would show you door. I just indulged the argument for a minute to see if you knew what you were talking about, and all you're doing, yet again, is presenting some theory that you've never even done yourself.
Just like I said with the gambling calculation, I won't be responding to that, and as far as your stock suggestions, no one here is going to be responding to any of that either - until you come up with something worth responding to. Thank you for sharing.
Hey dannyj, what do you think? Should we take this guy up on his idea to sell covered calls on our high flying stocks, or ignore him, until he comes up with something better? You tell me.
Anything might happen by morning, but at the moment, we're looking not too very shabby.
https://i.imgur.com/Nk9dXICl.jpg
If it weren't for government stimulus your portfolio would be decimated. The market crashed - the plunge protection team had to step in to buy things up, or right now, things would be in ashes. Amazing that you think a 1000 standard deviation event, which, by definition, does take into account variance is a believable outcome. You think EMR, which hasn't missed raising a dividend in decades year over year is a volatile stock and isn't worth owning ? Since Amazon is extremely volatile, you could collect a very healthy premium on call that is way out of the money. For example, in the screen shot below, you will see that Amazon calls that expire this Friday are 90 dollars out of the money and are bidding for over $100 an option.Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
I could care less what you or your friends or your dad's friends invest in. I'm not trying to sell anyone anything. I like collecting a fixed amount of income every month on instruments that are usually only sensitive to interest rate changes. Actually I love the illiquid preferred utilities like AILLL that I own. I bought some CNTHP (6.56% Connecticut Light and Power Company) at its redemption price ($51.44) on March 24th. During the dot bomb era, when I was probably close to your age, I did write covered calls against hyper-volatile stocks like Broadcom and then when the market settled down I stopped.
Go back to pencil pushing you're on Ignore until you come up with something worth commenting on, that isn't based on theory. But I guess I won't know when you come up with anything other than theory anyway since I won't see it. :eek:
Was trying to get AMZN too far below 1900, wasn't really happening so I went TSLA instead, 468 to 472. Cha'ching! (Those are real dollars, not theoretical.)