Quote:
Originally Posted by
accountinquestion
My point here is that when someone reads some blackjack math based book and it talks about pentration and spread - then no one should consider what you're doing 1:8 spread. That stuff is derived from where you are lowest bet until it is positive then you "ramp" up.
You say it has a cost. I'm saying you can't look at the charts for 1:8 spread because they're not accurate due to what you call a cost. I don't really follow counting anymore but it seems like a reasonable trick but the devil is in the details. Betting 2 units instead of one at the average loss per hand is not an insignificant cost to overcome.
If you are reading blackjack books and looking at charts, then you are stuck in the last century. Don Schlesinger, author of like THE book on blackjack,
Blackjack Attack which is just full of charts, graphs, numbers, was one of the biggest influences on me and my career. And I have had the pleasure of communicating privately with him often, although not recently.
But as good as that book is, if someone is using the charts from that book or any book, they are doing it all wrong. Today and for a while now, professional players get their information from computer software simulation. Some of the top players write their own, but Norm's software (Qfit products) is as good as any and more than adequate.
And the best part is you can spend hours tinking with bet spread, ramp, shutdown points (negative counts) until you find what works and is acceptable to you for a win rate without compromising everything else. then you look at the RoR for whatever you have come up with and see if that works for your bankroll.
So when tinkering one of the things you will find is there are some things that don't cost nearly what conventional wisdom says it does. Spreading both ways is one of them. Another is playing card counter basic strategy (CCBS). the old books liked to tell you that playing index plays, Don's 18, or 20, or 25 was worth about 25% of the total you can win. It just is NOT. If you set the simulation for CCBS, you will see you lose like 5%. And that 5% loss for eliminating one of the bigger tells of a card counter, playing the same hand differently at different times is well worth in longevity.
Then is you do something that has a little cost like betting $200 at zero instead of $100 and you feel that is too much a cost for you and your target win rate, you can further tinker and see where you can make some of that up. Maybe Max Bets slightly earlier at TC +3.5 instead of 4. Maybe exit the game at TC of -2 instead of -3, or maybe in between at -2.5.
There is hundreds of combinations you can tinker with until you find what works for you, and results in the Ev you are looking for. That is the beauty of software simulations vs the old charts. The possibilities are endless. You can't do that with the "canned simulations" in books.
If someone is getting into card counting, whether having dreams to play for a living, or just recreational for decent money (more than red chip), simulation software should be their very first purchase. It will pay for itself 100 times over, thousands of times if you do make a career of it.
