Professional Sportsbetting

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Originally Posted by The Boz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Going to be in the 80's today and all week in Vegas and I have a busy week planned, so not going to waste time on here. But I want to say one final thing about this Half smoke play.

This is a legitimate play based on 12 years of data. And it is a narrow part of a bigger underdog data provided by Wizard for decades of NFL games, 10's of thousands of games. It was and is +EV, even though for me just barely won this year. Last year was 20-12 for the 2 weeks, which I did play online after Half Smoke first shared the play. Of course every year wasn't going to be 20-12. Wouldn't that be sweet. And it would have been +EV, even if it had narrowly lost instead of narrowly won.

I publicly stated what I was betting before a single game was played. Actually have mentioned it several times throughout the summer waiting for these first two weeks. Last sunday morning, I even commented how I may have over done it for my comfort level when I realized how much I had riding on week 1.

What I got fro our expert Red, was calling this play a trend. Even Boz said something about me chasing a -EV trend. This is/was a +EV play that Half smoke gave out to several gambling forums, with the data backing it up. Any AP that bets football that didn't jump on it, just left money on the table, even though it only turned a small profit this year. But really the only other AP, that I saw publicly jump on it, was Axelwolf and good for him. I hope he stuck with it and played the second week.

And after the first week and all the comments about trends and chasing -EV, when this +EV play turned around, Guess what? Not a single chirp. Crickets. Not a single person had a word to say. Not a single "good for you for sticking with it". Why am I not surprised?

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NO, NO, NO it wasn’t an AP play. You are just wrong on that. I can find any historical “trend” and say the next game is +EV based on historical context. That doesn’t make today’s play +EV when you have a built in house edge like sports does.

I am happy you won on it but saying you had an edge is just wrong. At least you didn’t follow this ass clown. And you didn’t bet parlays so there’s that. Again, congratulations since no one else is saying it.

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Thank you for that Boz. But your comments about house edge and +EV are just wrong. House edge does not necessarily make a play -EV. Take blackjack. There is a definite house edge. But card counting and other AP plays can and do overcome that house edge and make the play +EV.

In this case, yes, there is a definite house edge because of the juice. But the likelihood of lines being wrong, under and overvalued in the early weeks, can over come the house edge. And it is the data that proves that.

Take Wizards data. (forgetting your dislike of the man). Wizards data show for something like 17 years, every NFL game, that betting underdogs show a small profit. That is thousands and thousands of games. That is NOT a trend. A trend is The cowboys have won 5 of last 6 meetings.

EVERYTHING a casino offers has a house edge. Advantage play is finding something that can overcome that house edge. And that is what Half Smokes first two week underdog play does. Just the same as card counting or hole-carding overcomes the casino house edge in blackjack.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

The UNKewlJ claims consist of reading something on the 'net, studying up on the topic, and then posting online to make it appear as if he knows something about the matter.
UNKewlJ is in a, as AccountInQuestion has put it: Neverending quest for street creds on the internet.

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Originally Posted by redietz

And finally, I must admit to (currently) not being the best handicapper in the household. Karen knocked out a 6-0 game, 21-0 unit day to lead LineMasters after two weeks.

Why do I feel like James Carville?

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What does a 21-0 unit day mean?


It sounds good, but one can use clever wording and use various methods that can all but guarantee incredible win rates.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Going to be in the 80's today and all week in Vegas and I have a busy week planned, so not going to waste time on here. But I want to say one final thing about this Half smoke play.

This is a legitimate play based on 12 years of data. And it is a narrow part of a bigger underdog data provided by Wizard for decades of NFL games, 10's of thousands of games. It was and is +EV, even though for me just barely won this year. Last year was 20-12 for the 2 weeks, which I did play online after Half Smoke first shared the play. Of course every year wasn't going to be 20-12. Wouldn't that be sweet. And it would have been +EV, even if it had narrowly lost instead of narrowly won.

I publicly stated what I was betting before a single game was played. Actually have mentioned it several times throughout the summer waiting for these first two weeks. Last sunday morning, I even commented how I may have over done it for my comfort level when I realized how much I had riding on week 1.

What I got fro our expert Red, was calling this play a trend. Even Boz said something about me chasing a -EV trend. This is/was a +EV play that Half smoke gave out to several gambling forums, with the data backing it up. Any AP that bets football that didn't jump on it, just left money on the table, even though it only turned a small profit this year. But really the only other AP, that I saw publicly jump on it, was Axelwolf and good for him. I hope he stuck with it and played the second week.

And after the first week and all the comments about trends and chasing -EV, when this +EV play turned around, Guess what? Not a single chirp. Crickets. Not a single person had a word to say. Not a single "good for you for sticking with it". Why am I not surprised?

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I don't even know what the final tally is thus far.
But here's the thing we can't know how you did because we haven't any clue what lines you got.
There were about 2-3 games where 1/2 point turned a push into a win.

I didn't have time to shop, I had to take what I could get at the last minute. Non line shopping cost me probably about 6k.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

EVERYTHING a casino offers has a house edge. .

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While that's true for the most part, that's not 100% accurate. I have played numerous games over the years that had a built-in mathematical player advantage straight up.

IE a new table game where a mathematical mistake has been made in the rules or playoffs..

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Originally Posted by The Boz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Going to be in the 80's today and all week in Vegas and I have a busy week planned, so not going to waste time on here. But I want to say one final thing about this Half smoke play.

This is a legitimate play based on 12 years of data. And it is a narrow part of a bigger underdog data provided by Wizard for decades of NFL games, 10's of thousands of games. It was and is +EV, even though for me just barely won this year. Last year was 20-12 for the 2 weeks, which I did play online after Half Smoke first shared the play. Of course every year wasn't going to be 20-12. Wouldn't that be sweet. And it would have been +EV, even if it had narrowly lost instead of narrowly won.

I publicly stated what I was betting before a single game was played. Actually have mentioned it several times throughout the summer waiting for these first two weeks. Last sunday morning, I even commented how I may have over done it for my comfort level when I realized how much I had riding on week 1.

What I got fro our expert Red, was calling this play a trend. Even Boz said something about me chasing a -EV trend. This is/was a +EV play that Half smoke gave out to several gambling forums, with the data backing it up. Any AP that bets football that didn't jump on it, just left money on the table, even though it only turned a small profit this year. But really the only other AP, that I saw publicly jump on it, was Axelwolf and good for him. I hope he stuck with it and played the second week.

And after the first week and all the comments about trends and chasing -EV, when this +EV play turned around, Guess what? Not a single chirp. Crickets. Not a single person had a word to say. Not a single "good for you for sticking with it". Why am I not surprised?

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NO, NO, NO it wasn’t an AP play. You are just wrong on that. I can find any historical “trend” and say the next game is +EV based on historical context. That doesn’t make today’s play +EV when you have a built in house edge like sports does.

I am happy you won on it but saying you had an edge is just wrong. At least you didn’t follow this ass clown. And you didn’t bet parlays so there’s that. Again, congratulations since no one else is saying it.

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Whats wrong with parlays? Yesterday morning had you did some round Robin parlayed on all the dogs you would've made a small fortune.. you would have gotten some good lines as well.

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Originally Posted by redietz

South Point occasionally has Sheena Easton in their showroom. She was my teenage obsession.

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Sheena Easton's first release was recorded in Dec 1979 and released Feb 1980.

I don't think either you or her were still teenagers by then.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Whats wrong with parlays? Yesterday morning had you did some round Robin parlayed on all the dogs you would've made a small fortune.. you would have gotten some good lines as well.

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parlays can sometimes be good bets but often they're not
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane
I suggest you read the linked article

from the article:

"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football

Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"


https://archive.ph/lkpZ0

This is fun! The more that gets posted, the more lies kew tells. And the more we see how nobody likes the scrawny little rat :)

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Kewl's posts they're just lies, lies, and even more lies.

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What is really funny and revealing to me is just how completely obsessed the two posters above are with me. And how really angry and bitter both show themselves to be that I am doing some advantage play stuff (in this case. Sports betting) to win, while both the guys are life long losing gamblers using and promoting all kinds of long disproved gambling voodoo techniques.

Goofy bastards!

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Whats wrong with parlays? Yesterday morning had you did some round Robin parlayed on all the dogs you would've made a small fortune.. you would have gotten some good lines as well.

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parlays can sometimes be good bets but often they're not
there is often more vig compared to a straight bet - and sometimes the parlays have their own special rules which are not advantageous to the player
with parlays books play on the bettors well known desire to have a huge payday
in horse racing they bump the vig up on the exotics (which are really parlays) at some tracks to as high as 30% which is insane
I suggest you read the linked article

from the article:

"According the the Nevada's Center for Gaming Research the state's sportsbooks earned on average 5.7 cents on every dollar wagered on football

Parlays however resulted in a windfall of 32.1 cents on the dollar"


https://archive.ph/lkpZ0

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No doubt parlays are bad for the average bettor however there are plenty of situations where it's beneficial for an advantage player to utilize.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

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Originally Posted by MDawg

The truth is … UNKewlJ hasn’t spent 20 years playing blackjack. He’s spent 20 years trying to convince people that he’s been playing blackjack.

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And now going on a year trying desperately to establish that he's ever placed a sports bet in his tunnel dwelling life.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

But here's the thing we can't know how you did because we haven't any clue what lines you got.
There were about 2-3 games where 1/2 point turned a push into a win.

I didn't have time to shop, I had to take what I could get at the last minute. Non line shopping cost me probably about 6k.

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Reading what you have posted at WoV, and now here, it sounds to me like you and I were pretty much doing the same thing with this Half smoke play.

I am not a "professional sports bettor", as the title of this thread indicates. But for the last year since last September sports betting and in particular the bonus chasing or bonus whoring at online casinos has accounted for about 1/3 of my AP income. I really don't know how long that will continue.

But this Half Smoke play is something different than the bonus whoring. And I wanted to get down more money on these first two weeks, of what I believe is a significant +EV play than I could get down (or felt comfortable getting down) at the handful of online books that I use. So living in Vegas I hit some B & M casinos and sportsbooks to place additional money on these first two weeks games.

Now not being a professional sports bettor, I didn't really line shop. I went out on Thurdsay, hit several casinos and books and bet the underdogs + points. Then Friday Evening I bet the underdogs at several of my online books that offer half juice on Friday evenings. Then Sunday Morning, I wagered at the remaining online books. So I made wagers on the same games, Thursday, Friday, Sunday at diferent sports books. And this meant in some cases I got lines that were 1/2, 1 point, in one case a point and a half different on the same games. At least one game each week, including the Sunday night game last night, that mattered. It resulted in some wagers being a push and some a win, last night. Last week, it resulted in some wagers being a push and some a loss on the same game.

It was more about just when I wagered than line shopping. If I was really going to do this full time, as my full time income, I would have to put more time in line shopping. Maybe check something like Vegas insider for what lines are at which casinos and then hit the best lines for each game for what I am betting. Had I done that, I probably could have turned a loss on some bets of one game last week into a push and a push on some bets last night into a win. That probably would have bumped me up a couple thousand or more. But jeez, I have a life too AND am doing other things right now. Been playing a lot of blackjack again after taking most of the summer off.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

EVERYTHING a casino offers has a house edge. Advantage play is finding something that can overcome that house edge. And that is what Half Smokes first two week underdog play does. Just the same as card counting or hole-carding overcomes the casino house edge in blackjack.

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Not exactly true, is it?
Casinos been making mistakes, in favor of the player, for decades.
As a matter of fact, sometimes, the Casino advertises games over 100% Return, with big flashy signs.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Kewl's lies just branch out like a tree. Start with one lie then sprout into a whole bouquet of lies. Kewl's lies are more personal because they're weirdly misleading in a way that is dangerous because they're actually believable.

Kewl can't back down on a lie until he has been cornered and recornered. Just piles on more lies hoping it somehow helps his credibility. His reasoning for not proving his lies with the minimum of documentation is nuts given how hard he tries to convince. His responses are nuts.

How many times is he going to give some version on "I don't care what others think"? He clearly tries everything he can to prove stuff to people but then vehemently denies doing so and refuses to *EVER* provide even a picture of a surfboard or anything else. It is just endless with the guy. He is really just not someone who should ever be taken seriously on ANY level.

Kewl won't fess up to his numerous lies. The only thing we can do to get a few more miles out of this is to get him to try and defend an existing lie with some more nonsense.

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lol at the Axel Wolf Strategy... Give me 2000 on every dog!
That's actually the "Owning Mahowny" Strategy.

Starts at 1:20 in the video.
Give me all the home teams in the National.
Give me all the away teams in the American.
-- You're Kidding? --
Every game for the thousand dollar max.
-- You da man! --

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w1k6NgiOHvM

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

But this Half Smoke play is something different than the bonus whoring. And I wanted to get down more money on these first two weeks, of what I believe is a significant +EV play than I could get down (or felt comfortable getting down) at the handful of online books that I use.

It was more about just when I wagered than line shopping. If I was really going to do this full time, as my full time income, I would have to put more time in line shopping. Maybe check something like Vegas insider for what lines are at which casinos and then hit the best lines for each game for what I am betting.

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With any due respect you are playing right into MDawgs hands with this nonsense. Again, you had a trend that is not +EV regardless of what some poster on forums researched. You are putting HS on some pedestal for a trend that you can find easily with a little research.

And in no way is it even close to being better than bonus whoring. And nothing anyone has trend wise is better than bonus whoring.

And now you are talking about being a full time sport bettor. Dude you are coming across as the guy these guys have accused you of being for years.

Honestly it’s beneath you and embarrassing that you are this stupid toward sports betting thinking it’s this easy to find a few old trends and shopping lines at different Vegas books to be a winner.

Do me a favor, look at home favorites between 3-6 points in Week 6 for the past 18 NFL seasons. How much are you going to dump on this historical “Trend”? It has a 13.3% edge over the time frame.

How about betting against a left handed starting QB as 7+ point favorites on the road since 1983. Granted it’s mostly Steve Young and Boomer along with some Mark Brunell and Michael Vick thrown in for good measure but it’s a winning “trend”.

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Originally Posted by The Boz

And in no way is it even close to being better than bonus whoring. And nothing anyone has trend wise is better than bonus whoring.

And now you are talking about being a full time sport bettor.

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What are you talking about Boz? You are making statements that are opposite of what I said. I specifically said "I am NOT a full-time sports bettor"

And where did I say this "was better" than bonus whoring"? Which I have been doing for 12 months, (4 complete cycles of bonus/rollover/withdrawl). Still doing the bonus whoring. This was just an additional play. and even incorporated into the bonus whoring for the wagers made at the online books. I just wanted to make some additional wagers and chose to do so at B& M rather than inject 30 grand more into the sports books and wait and hope I could withdraw.

Why do you think this is instead of or replacing my bonus whoring play? Doesn't matter, don't even answer. Bottom line is I believe this Half Smoke play is +EV. I won $7200 last September when dogs + points went 10-6 both weeks and another $3500 this year first two weeks. Guess what? Looking forward to next year. :cool: