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A Lion vs a Bear is a much more difficult matchup compared to a Colt.
It's Thanksgiving so Lions -10 ok for me.
But I'll take the small dog Steelers at +130 over Cinci.
Small Two Teamer.
Why not us?
EDIT: WTF...
Eagles Money Line
Chiefs -12
Redskins -5.5
Bills -7
Texans -5
‘Just because we’re down, and we’re fat, and we’re ugly, and we’re broke, doesn’t mean it’s over’
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aelpqWEBHR4Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
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Originally Posted by The Bozhttps://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aelpqWEBHR4Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
Boz,
Let me try the short, obvious version of this spiel.
The primary reason people bet parlays, besides being broke and trying to make up ground, is this: You never get a bead on how knowledgeable or successful you actually are. You never get an actual tally of your expertise that counts for anything. You are never confronted with your own ineptitude. The process of playing parlays hides the actual won/loss record.
In other words, it's all about money and not your record. If your record doesn't reflect if you've won or lost (52.4% for basic -110 scenarios; less for those folks paying the occasional -105 or -108), then you have an excuse, an obfuscation. The self-narrative becomes, "If only I'd arranged games in ways B or C or D instead of A, I'd have won." Instead of "Gee, if I'd have picked winners, I would have won." The "strategy" of using parlays obfuscates the clear view of whether you have picked more winners than losers.
You're basically using smoke screens to hide how often you pick winners from yourself. If you straight bet, you are confronted with your actual percentage record every single day. And obviously, most people do not want that.
What people are you talking about? The general public? Action junkies?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Since when do smart gamblers, Advantage Players, and value seekers care what dumb things the general public and Action junkies do.
I think it's pretty fucking obvious that the General Public likes parlays because they can bet small and win big, basically a much better value type of lottery ticket.
I don't know what Red is going to tell us, if he ever gets around to doing the interview with Munchkin or anyone else, but I will share my recent experiences with my bonus chasing sports betting.
I have 5 different sportsbooks I play and the cycles are different at each depending on bonuses received and rollover amounts. And both have been getting a little worse each time since I started last September.
My weakest cycle (most rollover) just ended. It was a book I just began using this September to replace a book that no longer offered anything playable (by my needs). This cycle that just ended, I made very little money. About $2200. The rollover was just too much and ate away most of the profits. They did payout quickly, but unless their next offer is better than this one, I am going to have to find a new book with better offers to keep going.
I sort of expect it will all dry up for me at some point with fewer and fewer decent offers and I expect that will be sooner rather than later. I know there are 100's of online books, but I am just not familiar enough with who is good and can be trusted and who isn't.
It has been a good stream of income for me over the last 15 months. We will see what happens going forward.
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Originally Posted by soxfan
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Originally Posted by MDawg
The camel fucker fucks, and having fucked, moves on...Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgQuote:
Originally Posted by soxfan
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Originally Posted by MDawg
Multi-AccountQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I've done a little bit. Not like some of these guys though.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Can you give us an example of an amount you deposited(approximate), what kind of bonus you got, and what the rollover requirements were?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Nope. Not going to do that. I did that last year when I was getting started and shared some of the really good bonuses and rollover amounts and you and other doubted me and called me a liar. So why bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Terms (amounts and rollover) are getting worse almost every cycle. At some places I am down to the basic advertised terms and means I really need to be at least close to .500 to make money. have to work at picking games a little harder.
I'm sorry Mickey, but multi-accounting will not get your wagering requirements/rollover down to "5.6 X" on average. Many of these known offshore Sportsbooks are worth very little using bonuses unless you have an advantage at sports betting or if you can cut the juice way down. furthermore, most of them will not let you make a huge bet for the win big or go home strategy, thus cutting your wagering requirements in half.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmMulti-AccountQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Most of them are highly restrictive of what you can bet and what your limits are. This almost guarantees that a coin flipper will be grinding themselves down to the house Edge. Now certainly one can use something like Little Red Roosters system to gain a slight advantage on some bets, however, there's not going to be enough of those to churn out your wagering requirements. Now you're left with coin-flipping minus EV bets... unless you're sitting there all day long watching for line movements and betting in-game live play(and that might not even count for your wagering requirements).
Easier to not get caught in even more contradictory lies that way.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJNope. Not going to do that. I did that last year when I was getting started and shared some of the really good bonuses and rollover amounts and you and other doubted me and called me a liar. So why bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
You don't have to get your plays to +Ev to win. You can be -Ev, just need to cut it down from 4.5% (coin flip) to closer to 1-2%. You already know lots of different things you can do to achieve that. Take advantage of half juice fridays, play more underdogs, away teams and unders when betting totals. The public like favorites, and overs so they are always slightly over-valued. Specialized plays like LRR's first 2 weeks of course. I follow Monet in hockey, Druff, and Daly (from his poker forum) and a couple guys at ESPN with their picks. they seem to do pretty well.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI'm sorry Mickey, but multi-accounting will not get your wagering requirements/rollover down to 5.6 X on average. Many of these known offshore Sportsbooks are worth very little using bonuses unless you have an advantage at sports betting or if you can cut the juice way down. furthermore, most of them will not let you make a huge bet for the win big or go home strategy, thus cutting your wagering requirements in half.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmMulti-AccountQuote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Most of them are highly restrictive of what you can bet and what your limits are this almost guarantees that a coin flipper will be grinding themselves down to the house Edge. Now certainly one can use something like Little Red Roosters system to gain a slight advantage on some bets, however, there's not going to be enough of those to churn out your wagering requirements now you're left with coin flipping minus EV bets unless you're sitting there all day long watching for line movements and betting in-game live play(and that might not even count for your wagering requirements).
I like to play unders because the public likes overs. Not every game, but do a little work. With unders you gotta be careful of overtimes, especially college football and things like the lst 2 minutes of college basketball where 15 points can be scored. For this reason, if I have some teams that PACE says under, I will often play the halftime under rather than the game under. No overtimes. No last 2 minute fouling.
PACE is big in basketball, college and pro. Look to the PACE metric more than points per game. You get a couple of teams with slow to moderate PACE rating, you can better predict the score and whether it will be low scoring. Those teams just don't have shootouts. But what do I know. I am just a lowly card counter. Only someone like Redietz can make money betting sports, not us lowly card counters and APs. :cool:
I for sure didn't call you a liar, but I certainly doubted you got an average of 5.4-.6 wagering requirements for the amount of money you were talking about. Mickey did some calculations with the information you provided, you didn't dispute it, you basically confined it.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJNope. Not going to do that. I did that last year when I was getting started and shared some of the really good bonuses and rollover amounts and you and other doubted me and called me a liar. So why bother.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Terms (amounts and rollover) are getting worse almost every cycle. At some places I am down to the basic advertised terms and means I really need to be at least close to .500 to make money. have to work at picking games a little harder.
One might ask... how I be doubting you without calling you a liar or believing that you are purposely misinforming us?
Perhaps you made a mistake and misunderstood the terms of what kind of bonus you were getting, how much, and what the wagering requirements were. I'm too lazy to go back and look for Mickey's post and what you said, but I am sure there is a flaw in the information given for him to calculate the value of what you actually got
There's a part of these online bonuses and sports books that you have yet to talk about, and I find that a little odd. What you have said is just some very vanilla simple "I got a Bonus for this much, with x wagering requirements, Im betting x and I made this much. It's all just the basic how-to that one can read online.
You can see some of the details that I put above and my response to Mickey.
I guess it's kind of hard to dispute anything if someone comes back and says they changed details or kept details out to throw everybody off the scent to protect themselves or what they were doing.
I don't disagree. Let's take one at a time. Are you telling me that you are getting big bonuses with low wagering requirements at a Sportsbook that has half-juice Fridays or whatever?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJYou don't have to get your plays to +Ev to win. You can be -Ev, just need to cut it down from 4.5% (coin flip) to closer to 1-2%. You already know lots of different things you can do to achieve that. Take advantage of half juice fridays, play more underdogs, away teams and unders when betting totals. The public like favorites, and overs so they are always slightly over-valued. Specialized plays like LRR's first 2 weeks of course. I follow Monet in hockey, Druff, and Daly (from his poker forum) and a couple guys at ESPN with their picks. they seem to do pretty well.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI'm sorry Mickey, but multi-accounting will not get your wagering requirements/rollover down to 5.6 X on average. Many of these known offshore Sportsbooks are worth very little using bonuses unless you have an advantage at sports betting or if you can cut the juice way down. furthermore, most of them will not let you make a huge bet for the win big or go home strategy, thus cutting your wagering requirements in half.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Most of them are highly restrictive of what you can bet and what your limits are this almost guarantees that a coin flipper will be grinding themselves down to the house Edge. Now certainly one can use something like Little Red Roosters system to gain a slight advantage on some bets, however, there's not going to be enough of those to churn out your wagering requirements now you're left with coin flipping minus EV bets unless you're sitting there all day long watching for line movements and betting in-game live play(and that might not even count for your wagering requirements).
I like to play unders because the public likes overs. Not every game, but do a little work. With unders you gotta be careful of overtimes, especially college football and things like the lst 2 minutes of college basketball where 15 points can be scored. For this reason, if I have some teams that PACE says under, I will often play the halftime under rather than the game under. No overtimes. No last 2 minute fouling.
PACE is big in basketball, college and pro. Look to the PACE metric more than points per game. You get a couple of teams with slow to moderate PACE rating, you can better predict the score and whether it will be low scoring. Those teams just don't have shootouts. But what do I know. I am just a lowly card counter. Only someone like Redietz can make money betting sports, not us lowly card counters and APs. :cool:
I was surprised and just that malenky bit poogly to sloosh AxelWolf govoreeting that wise.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Dude, I am not going to keep rehashing this same shit from last September. I am not even getting the same bonuses and rollovers anymore.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
YES, for the 10th time, I did get some pretty amazing terms at a couple books I had used for several years and had a losing record as a recreational gambler at. One of them was 4x rollover. THAT brough the average of the others down as well. The conditions and terms were so good, that having decided to really get into the bonus game, it would have been difficult NOT to have made good money those first couple cycles. Would have had to run extremely bad. Now....getting a little harder.
Why are you pressing me for numbers like I got this amount bonus, this amount rollover, bet this amount and won this?
When have you ever given us that kind of specific information about anything you have ever done? :confused:
Meanwhile I have given specifics like that about everything I have done (card counting) my whole existence on this boards, and all I ever got in return was grief. People claiming I was bragging and this and that. I am done with THAT shit!
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Originally Posted by MDawg
That's a laugh. Anytime he has gotten anywhere near specifics on any subject INCLUDING blackjack he has contradicted himself and gotten called out for lies.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
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Originally Posted by MDawg