Mickeycrimm it's time for you to stop trolling me and read what others are saying.
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Mickeycrimm it's time for you to stop trolling me and read what others are saying.
I don't want this to get lost. I am looking forward to the response.Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
Define Normal. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Bill Yung
Of course one could go to a blackjack site and not post. Or get banned for talking about blackjack. :cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Let say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWhat are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).
Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.
Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.
Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).
Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.
One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.
If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.
I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.
I can't comment on the nickel VP example because I am not really a VP or machine type AP. As you know my experience in this area was very limited, with the +EV coming from the disproportionate bonuses in monthly mailers, which has been on the decline. For this and other reason (partner passing and I wanting to focus more on blackjack), I am all but out of the machine play supplemental stuff I was doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfLet say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWhat are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).
Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.
Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.
Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).
Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.
One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.
If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.
I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.
But I will comment on your first example. Died after an extended losing period of a year? Come on...you are being absurd. Pick the most extreme example you can come up with while don't you. You really seem to be crossing over into Alan territory here. What is that about? :confused:
I said from the beginning when you first talked about your best day ever, after losing $8800(or whatever amount it was) that you couldn't accumulate/bank EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJDon't agree with him. He is being a douche for some reason. You actually laid out the perfect example of what accumulated EV is in your above post concerning FPDW play. Now imagine you play not only that game but several different games. You figure out where you are (actual results) in relationship to expectation by accumulated EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deech
I did say that I understood what you were are getting at. I know things tend to average out given enough play. So no, I'm not trying to be a Dbag.
How many hands of BJ do you play per year on avrage? I bet it's mathematically odd that you are coming close to you EV each year. There should be some guys who are making way over the EV and some guys going way under and everywhere else in between.
Five hands of blackjack? Five rolls of the die? (I would have said dice, but I went with your usage)Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Herein lies the problem. Alan, you think short term in every situation. Gamblers think short-term. Short term involves variance and everything you say and seem to focus on is about short term variance. The wins. The daily losses. The royal hits.
AP's think longterm. We know that short-term results....wins or losses, are just variance. We want to get past the variance and get to the long-term where the math takes over and if we are playing with an advantage, we will realize that advantage and our actual results (wins) will be pretty close to expectation.
It is as simple as this: Someone who only thinks short-term can't possible understand AP concepts involving the long term. They just can't! They are wired differently. YOU are wired differently (short term thinking).
So there really is no sense in going over and over and around in circles. You are not going to understand or accept. You are an earth is flat guy (short-term thinker) and no matter how much you are shown proof that the earth is round, you come back to the same response of "yeah but if it was round, I would fall off".
There just in no sense in continuing this or most discussions any more. There has to be a time that we give in to the true definition of insanity. :(
OK, lets say you have a low limit card counter(his EV is $2 an hour). He finds a casino in the middle of BFE. The casino if offering drawing tickets for certain hands on blackjack. The drawing is for a 5 million. The dude has 99% of the tickets, but he gets snapped off. What becomes of his 4.95 mill of accumulated EV? How in the hell will a $2 CC ever avrage out? He won't even get 500k of that accumulated EV, let alone the full amount. Someone allready got his EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJI can't comment on the nickel VP example because I am not really a VP or machine type AP. As you know my experience in this area was very limited, with the +EV coming from the disproportionate bonuses in monthly mailers, which has been on the decline. For this and other reason (partner passing and I wanting to focus more on blackjack), I am all but out of the machine play supplemental stuff I was doing.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfLet say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.
But I will comment on your first example. Died after an extended losing period of a year? Come on...you are being absurd. Pick the most extreme example you can come up with while don't you. You really seem to be crossing over into Alan territory here. What is that about? :confused:
If you understand what I was getting at, then don't play devil's advocate. It only emboldens Alan. I can guarantee when he read you say "there is no such thing as accumulating EV", Alan jizzed in his pants from excitement.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I play 60-70 thousand rounds in recent years. Over 80 thousand for this year and still going. Might hit 100k rounds depending on how much time off I decide to take at the end of the year. I used to play 100 thousand rounds regularly when I was playing lower stakes and really grinding, so this amount of play isn't new to me, just different. Higher EV per round for a variety of reasons (including tracking multiple tables ;))Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I come reasonably close to accumulated EV each year. And even with that there have been a couple outliers, one in each direction, which says to me that my 60-70 thousand rounds is not long-term. But if you take any 2 years of my results (instead of one), you really come close to accumulated EV. And that includes the outlier years. Since they occurred back to back, you add them together and boom....results are right at accumulated EV or expectation.
See that last half line that I wrote: "accumulated EV or expectation"? I think that is the whole issue here. If I had initially used the word "expectation" instead of accumulated EV, I wouldn't have gotten the argument from Alan.
But what is expectation? It is an accumulation of expected value (for each round played)….thus accumulated EV. :rolleyes:
COME ON!?! What are you doing here....trying to find the most extreme examples you can? Dying after an extremely negative year? A drawing for $5 million? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am trying to keep it simple and you are going for the most extreme examples you can come up with. :rolleyes: There is a phrase for what you are doing. It is trying to come up with a "gottch ya" moment. It happens to be from the troll playbook. That's what it seems like you are doing here Axel. WTF? Are you switching sides here? Wouldn't be the first time you did a little switch-hitting, now would it, Axel? ;)
Anyway, I gotta go to work. Time to make the donuts, err...French fries. Oh wait, I forgot.....I tell everyone I am an AP here. Time to do AP stuff. ;)
How many of them 80 hands of BJ are during positive counts? What percent on avrage are you making?
Can you walk us through your day and how you get so many hands in with what I assume are short sessions to avoid heat while hopping around from casino to casino?
Yes, extreme examples, because if you can explain how that works to me then I can learn something and perhaps I will change my mind and believe someone CAN accumulate EV.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJCOME ON!?! What are you doing here....trying to find the most extreme examples you can? Dying after an extremely negative year? A drawing for $5 million? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am trying to keep it simple and you are going for the most extreme examples you can come up with. :rolleyes: There is a phrase for what you are doing. It is trying to come up with a "gottch ya" moment. It happens to be from the troll playbook. That's what it seems like you are doing here Axel. WTF? Are you switching sides here? Wouldn't be the first time you did a little switch-hitting, now would it, Axel? ;)
Anyway, I gotta go to work. Time to make the donuts, err...French fries. Oh wait, I forgot.....I tell everyone I am an AP here. Time to do AP stuff. ;)
Real quick. I don't have an exact number for what hands are at what count. It's not like I am taking notes and keeping records at the table. We use computer simulations and averages for that.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
But I will tell you tell you this. This is where some of the techniques that I employ come into play. Tracking multiple tables. Short sessions, escaping the worst of the negative counts. These are things that in the long-run, change the true count frequencies in my favor. I play fewer negative counts (wonging out), replacing them (tracking and jumping to a second table) with more +EV and max bet opportunities. This significantly increases win rate. :cool:
Anyway, I really gotta jet. I have done that walk through a typical day before (maybe at WoV). I am happy to do so again, if there is interest by you or anyone else. But I can't do it now. If you really are interested, I am happy to come back to this later today or tomorrow.
Normal is what you don't have to define. But leave it to an AP to mess that up. "Hey, I feel normal, but don't ask me to explain it."Quote:
Originally Posted by MosesDefine Normal. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by Bill Yung
Perhaps, it's the mental state free of the sadistic and masochistic gyrations of gambling. In general, getting yourself out of the baloney of life at least enough to laugh and cheer at the ones who, eg, have to compare themselves to donut and fry flippers to reconcile their sitting at a blackjack table or slot machine all day/night.
Many of those "flippers" go on to build up those businesses for themselves to employ others alongside themselves in their own shifts, by the age of 40. By age 50, they no longer work, except for overseeing the "flipping", but then take home a hundred thousand a year (before taxes).
How old did you say you are, KJ? Are you going to send in your mother to play for you, in a few more years?
"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfLet say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWhat are you nuts? :confused: You joining the Alan club?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Today I played 2 sessions at 2 different casinos. Both were heads up with the dealer (during football games).
Session 1 was a double deck game. Based on rules, penetration and my spread, each round played was worth $1.80. I played 140 rounds. Expected value: $252.
Session 2 was 6 deck game. Based on rules, penetration, and my spread, each round was worth $1.20. I played 180 rounds. Expected value: $216.
Total expected value (accumulated EV) for the day: $468. (this happened to be well above my daily average for just a couple hours play due to the heads up sessions).
Whether I won or lost today is completely irrelevant. I accumulated $468 in EV. If I were to accumulate this same EV every day for a year that would be $170,000 in EV and over such a larger trial, my actual results would be right in that neighborhood.
One of the purposes of accumulating EV is that different games have different values. Not only different blackjack games, but all advantage play opportunities. More well rounded AP's that I (like you), build EV at all sorts of different AP plays. That EV is all thrown into the pot and at the end of the year (or some other longterm period), your accumulated EV and actual results will be pretty close. That is what accumulated EV is all about.
If accumulated EV and actual results are continually not close, there is likely something wrong, like you are being cheated (highly unlikely except if your online handle begins with zen***g) or your game(s) have holes in them, meaning you are making mistakes, or doing something undisciplined like chasing losses.
I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.
Why is it you dunces always talk about losing on positive plays but always talk about winning on negative plays?Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
This is actually a great way to sum up the AP stuff. You guys lose out on all the great things of life while embrace the casino nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
You just have to look at things in a different way, at a different level, to make sense of what seems otherwise nonsensical to find something truly profound.
So you're saying my totally mathematically possible conditions above can't and never happen?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmWhy is it you dunces always talk about losing on positive plays but always talk about winning on negative plays?Quote:
Originally Posted by blackhole
If we go back to when KJ originally brought this up, it sounded as if he was ok with a 8,800 loss because he had accumulated lots of EV and it would avrage out and he would get back that loss plus his accumulated EV. IMO, It was getting dangerously close to the dueness theory.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm"Accumulated EV" is past tense not future tense.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfLet say you played for a year "accumulating" lots EV, however, you ran super duper bad and lost a shit ton and then you died. What would happen to that accumulated EV? Did you leave it to your brother in your will? If you leave all your accumulated EV to your mom and she doesn't play, how will she collect and what happens to that accumulated EV?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I also gave an example of nickel VP player accumulating 5 mill in EV on a fluke play. Perhaps you can comment on that.
He had good value. And of course, If he keeps putting himself into good value situations eventually good things should happen.
I just have a problem wrapping my head around if an individual can accumulate EV and what exactly does one mean by that? It might be the wrong term to use.