Smart Money

I'm red hot so far this season.
It's pretty sick.
The Puck Line just keeps covering.
Literally 14-0 in the last 11 days.
Anyways... whatever, I keep waiting for it to end.

4 Teams Today
Bet them how you want.

Hurricanes Puck Line
Jets Puck Line
Blue Jackets Puck Line
Lightning Puck Line.

I really like the Jets and the Blue Jackets.
I have them on a two teamer and a three teamer with the Canes.
A little worried about Tampa but they keep winning.
No biggy.
Nobody betting my picks.
I post for fun when I have the time.

Sharks Won in OT.
Cost me 300.
Unfair.
Least Trump Won.

2-2 yesterday.
Today isn't bad.
You can bet the Money Line or Puck Line.
I'll probably put down a few hundred on each.

2 Teamer
Capitals
Knights

I will be tagging along Monet. I lost some money on election, so could use a nice little parlay win. Good luck to you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I will be tagging along Monet. I lost some money on election, so could use a nice little parlay win. Good luck to you.

---

Better match ups tomorrow but these games are good enough.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

2-2 yesterday.
Today isn't bad.
You can bet the Money Line or Puck Line.
I'll probably put down a few hundred on each.

2 Teamer
Capitals
Knights

---

Capitals Win 3-2
Knights Win 4-2

Nashville got so Fucking Lucky to only lose by one.
I mean, they played hard, but Washington should have scored more.
I knew the Puck Line might be in trouble when the Caps missed that breakaway goal in the second.
And giving up the 2-1 lead 30 seconds after getting it.
I would have won over 8 grand if the Puck Line held up.
I'll have to be happy with winning 2200 and some change.
Tomorrow is Fucking Crazy.
I love 8 teams.
I'm definitely swinging for some fences or goals, whatever, you know what I mean!

You don't have to bet all 8 Teams.
You can bet them however you like.
Pick and Choose.
Mix and Match.
You'll have to bet the Puck Line.
Except for the Jets.
You could get away with the Jets Money Line at -150 or so.

Top Three Picks
Wild Puck Line
Rangers Puck Line
Jets Puck Line or Money Line

8 Teamer
Panthers
Devils
Rangers
Canes
Lightning
Stars
Jets
Wild

Sharks can't keep winning.
Impossible.

Hey Monet,

The only football future I have going is Vols at 50-1 to win the whole shebang. They can probably lose to Georgia and still make the playoff, but they'll have to beat Miss State, UTEP, and Vandy. Once they're in, it's a profit at 50-1. It just depends how I handle it

I am currently searching for another college longshot and for an NFL squad. I have no brilliant ideas at the moment. If I come up with one, I will report with The Riddler. Had A&M won last week, I likely would have taken them, but they collapsed in one of the worst second halves I've seen in ages. The way SMU is currently playing, they are a dangerous group. They finally evolved into what I thought they might be from the beginning. Realistically, though, not sure they have enough speed at skill positions to bother any of the SEC teams. SMU reminds me of Ole Miss in a lot of ways. I think if Ole Miss beats Georgia, they are also a dangerous group, but they have to win the game, after which their odds will be shot to hell. So probably a no go.

If the Riddler shows up, I'm on to something. The Riddler, by the way, has made money every single time here, which is ridiculous. LOL. And none of the genius "APs" seem to have noticed. That tells you about the caliber of the "APs" plaguing this forum. They either didn't notice, or think it's no big deal, or don't want to acknowledge it.

The Riddler made money, albeit not always a lot, every single time. Documented, as they say. And went under the "AP" radar. LOL. What a group.

Even my reported Trump future won. But that was me, not The Riddler. So technically that doesn't count. And my favorite response was smurger's, "But you got a bad number." Yes I did. But I had a 48-hour window or so to make the wager, and that was the best number in that 48 hours. Boo hoo.

Classic.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Hey Monet,

The only football future I have going is Vols at 50-1 to win the whole shebang. They can probably lose to Georgia and still make the playoff, but they'll have to beat Miss State, UTEP, and Vandy. Once they're in, it's a profit at 50-1. It just depends how I handle it

I am currently searching for another college longshot and for an NFL squad. I have no brilliant ideas at the moment. If I come up with one, I will report with The Riddler. Had A&M won last week, I likely would have taken them, but they collapsed in one of the worst second halves I've seen in ages. The way SMU is currently playing, they are a dangerous group. They finally evolved into what I thought they might be from the beginning. Realistically, though, not sure they have enough speed at skill positions to bother any of the SEC teams. SMU reminds me of Ole Miss in a lot of ways. I think if Ole Miss beats Georgia, they are also a dangerous group, but they have to win the game, after which their odds will be shot to hell. So probably a no go.

If the Riddler shows up, I'm on to something. The Riddler, by the way, has made money every single time here, which is ridiculous. LOL. And none of the genius "APs" seem to have noticed. That tells you about the caliber of the "APs" plaguing this forum. They either didn't notice, or think it's no big deal, or don't want to acknowledge it.

The Riddler made money, albeit not always a lot, every single time. Documented, as they say. And went under the "AP" radar. LOL. What a group.

Even my reported Trump future won. But that was me, not The Riddler. So technically that doesn't count. And my favorite response was smurger's, "But you got a bad number." Yes I did. But I had a 48-hour window or so to make the wager, and that was the best number in that 48 hours. Boo hoo.

Classic.

---

Hedging and Riddles.
Better than Nothing.
Thanks!

P.S. - I hate locking up money in Futures.
Might as well just dump it into the Stock Market

16-4 in this thread for the NHL Season thus far, if I counted correctly.
Two of the losses were winning teams that didn't cover the puck line.
11 Games Today.
I love the Rangers and the Wild.
I picked 8 and gonna add 2 more for value.
Money Line Picks

Blues Money Line
Kings Money Line

Probably won't even bet them.
Just saying.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

16-4 in this thread for the NHL Season thus far, if I counted correctly.
Two of the losses were winning teams that didn't cover the puck line.
11 Games Today.
I love the Rangers and the Wild.
I picked 8 and gonna add 2 more for value.
Money Line Picks

Blues Money Line
Kings Money Line

Probably won't even bet them.
Just saying.

---

Now, monet, if the Vols make the playoffs, I'd have to be a loon to not hedge. Although, as Karen says, "Hedging is for wienies." So maybe you're right. But I'm too cheap to not hedge.

Congrats on your NHL to date. That is spectacular.

You know, I'm supposed to take the Under tonight for Bengals/Ravens. Every mechanical system I use says Under, and the thought of taking the Under in this game makes me so sick I can't do it. Eyeball-wise, I don't think these teams can stop each other on any possession. If you told me the total was 57, I'd say okay, makes sense. The total is 52 1/2. Geez Louise.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

16-4 in this thread for the NHL Season thus far, if I counted correctly.
Two of the losses were winning teams that didn't cover the puck line.
11 Games Today.
I love the Rangers and the Wild.
I picked 8 and gonna add 2 more for value.
Money Line Picks

Blues Money Line
Kings Money Line

Probably won't even bet them.
Just saying.

---

Now, monet, if the Vols make the playoffs, I'd have to be a loon to not hedge. Although, as Karen says, "Hedging is for wienies." So maybe you're right. But I'm too cheap to not hedge.

Congrats on your NHL to date. That is spectacular.

You know, I'm supposed to take the Under tonight for Bengals/Ravens. Every mechanical system I use says Under, and the thought of taking the Under in this game makes me so sick I can't do it. Eyeball-wise, I don't think these teams can stop each other on any possession. If you told me the total was 57, I'd say okay, makes sense. The total is 52 1/2. Geez Louise.

---

You're just costing yourself money when you hedge.
The same could be said when I parlay.
We all have our leaks.
My record from the end of the last NHL Season till today is slightly over 80%.
It's been a heck of a run.
I keep expecting it to end in disaster.
I try to only focus on my posted picks in this thread though.
I think I've proven myself and that parlays can be beaten.
Whatever.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

You don't have to bet all 8 Teams.
You can bet them however you like.
Pick and Choose.
Mix and Match.
You'll have to bet the Puck Line.
Except for the Jets.
You could get away with the Jets Money Line at -150 or so.

Top Three Picks
Wild Puck Line
Rangers Puck Line
Jets Puck Line or Money Line

8 Teamer
Panthers
Devils
Rangers
Canes
Lightning
Stars
Jets
Wild

Sharks can't keep winning.
Impossible.

---

Fucking Rangers.
Mafia made the phone call.
Lose 800.
Don't Bother Me.
I'm going to bed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

You don't have to bet all 8 Teams.
You can bet them however you like.
Pick and Choose.
Mix and Match.
You'll have to bet the Puck Line.
Except for the Jets.
You could get away with the Jets Money Line at -150 or so.

Top Three Picks
Wild Puck Line
Rangers Puck Line
Jets Puck Line or Money Line

8 Teamer
Panthers
Devils
Rangers
Canes
Lightning
Stars
Jets
Wild

Sharks can't keep winning.
Impossible.

I picked 8 and gonna add 2 more for value.
Money Line Picks

Blues Money Line
Kings Money Line

Probably won't even bet them.
Just saying.

---

Panthers Win 6-2
Devils Win 5-3
Rangers Lose 6-1
Canes Win 5-1
Lightning Lose 2-1 OT
Stars Win 3-1
Jets Win 1-0
Wild Win 5-2
------------
Blues Money Line Lose 4-2
Kings Money Line Lose 4-2

Not as bad as I had initially thought.
Went 6-2 on the First Eight.
You could argue 6-3 as I had the Jets on the ML or PL.
Welp, I got greedy with "Value" Picks.
Fucking Value Picking Now??
Fuck Off!
So, either I went 6-4 or 6-5 on the day.
I had the Jets Money Line on all tickets.
Jets had a 2:50 second open net chance and blew it.

Here's the real point and what I'm always preaching.
7 Teams had an empty net chance to cover the puck line.
SIX of them scored and covered.
It's ridiculous how I didn't make money on this day.
I didn't realize the Rangers were going to play like a bunch of old women.
Sad.

Chin Up.
Another decent day in the NHL

2 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

4 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Capitals Puck Line
Wild Puck Line
Knights Puck Line or Money Line

Pays around 35 to 1 with all Puck Line Betting.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know, I'm supposed to take the Under tonight for Bengals/Ravens. Every mechanical system I use says Under, and the thought of taking the Under in this game makes me so sick I can't do it. Eyeball-wise, I don't think these teams can stop each other on any possession. If you told me the total was 57, I'd say okay, makes sense. The total is 52 1/2. Geez Louise.

---

Ummm... WTF???
To think I almost bet the under, lol.
Nothing wrong with 69... I guess.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know, I'm supposed to take the Under tonight for Bengals/Ravens. Every mechanical system I use says Under, and the thought of taking the Under in this game makes me so sick I can't do it. Eyeball-wise, I don't think these teams can stop each other on any possession. If you told me the total was 57, I'd say okay, makes sense. The total is 52 1/2. Geez Louise.

---

Ummm... WTF???
To think I almost bet the under, lol.
Nothing wrong with 69... I guess.

---

Nothing wrong with 69 -- LOL.

I did nothing with it. I felt like a moron passing on it for three quarters, then everything went to hell. My long-term mechanical totals systems simply don't work in 2024, given the current state of the NFL. The league set an all-time record for 2-6 teams this year. Basically, the totals get depressed across the league because offenses have been so bad for two seasons, and then when two good offenses play each other, the totals can't really reflect the profile of the game because the teams involved have been in control of other games without having to go balls out to score.

Overs are running at roughly +10 for the year, and I'm not really an Over bettor, so I'm kind of stuck. I'm ahead in the NFL this year, but barely, and it's from teasing Overs. I'm taking terrible teams with backup QBs, but the difference between backup QBs and starters for half the league is negligible, so any totals dips due to personnel changes can be ignored. I wind up teasing the other way, which effectively yields bonus points if the line moves down.

I did do some stupid stuff at FanDuel since my eyeball perception was that the game would be a shootout. I loaded up on players from this game for Thurs/Mon contests. Now the problem is that those contests have very small prizes because FanDuel doesn't want people passing on the Sunday contests when they are positioned to win money in the Thurs/Mon contests. Anyway, I'm sitting 2nd out of 660 in one ($9) contest and first out of 396 in another. This is only worth about $500 because these things are so small. Unlikely I hold those spots (I have three players left on each team), but it's the first time I remember when every player I took both scored a TD AND put up good stats. Doesn't happen often.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Chin Up.
Another decent day in the NHL

2 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

4 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Capitals Puck Line
Wild Puck Line
Knights Puck Line or Money Line

Pays around 35 to 1 with all Puck Line Betting.

---

We went 2-2 on the day as the Caps and Knights got beat.
But our 2 Teamer came through.
The NHL is so easy.
Why??
Because of the Empty Netter.
The Leafs come through winning 3-1 thanks to getting the free goal.
I just got up and haven't cashed the tickets yet.
I lost 3 Hun on the 4 Teamers.
But... I bet 825.50 to win 3,615.40 on the Two Teamer.
So, a profit of 3,315.40.
I'll post the tickets after I cash them.
Too Late to really get down on anything today.
I suppose you have enough to get down on the Canes.
You can either take the Hurricanes with the Money Line or Puck Line.
The Money Line has pretty darn good value at -130.
Fucking Value Bets, lol
DON'T BET PARLAYS... right?

I took a shower and thought about it some more.
I'm gonna add in a small 2 Teamer.
You got about an hour to get your tickets in... last call.

2 Teamer
Hurricanes Puck Line
Kings Puck Line

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

I took a shower and thought about it some more.
I'm gonna add in a small 2 Teamer.
You got about an hour to get your tickets in... last call.

2 Teamer
Hurricanes Puck Line
Kings Puck Line

---

The Second Period was an Avalanched Filled Nightmare.
Lose 300 buckaroos.

I really messed this day up by sleeping it away.
The usual suspects covered.
Rangers, Jets, Leafs and Capitals.
Lose - A - Peg can't stop winning.

1-1 because I didn't wake up early enough.
Today should be an easy day.

2 Teamer
Devils Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Chin Up.
Another decent day in the NHL

2 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

4 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Capitals Puck Line
Wild Puck Line
Knights Puck Line or Money Line

Pays around 35 to 1 with all Puck Line Betting.

---

We went 2-2 on the day as the Caps and Knights got beat.
But our 2 Teamer came through.
The NHL is so easy.
Why??
Because of the Empty Netter.
The Leafs come through winning 3-1 thanks to getting the free goal.
I just got up and haven't cashed the tickets yet.
I lost 3 Hun on the 4 Teamers.
But... I bet 825.50 to win 3,615.40 on the Two Teamer.
So, a profit of 3,315.40.
I'll post the tickets after I cash them.
Too Late to really get down on anything today.
I suppose you have enough to get down on the Canes.
You can either take the Hurricanes with the Money Line or Puck Line.
The Money Line has pretty darn good value at -130.
Fucking Value Bets, lol
DON'T BET PARLAYS... right?

---

Easy Parcheesi...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

1-1 because I didn't wake up early enough.
Today should be an easy day.

2 Teamer
Devils Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

---

0-2
It's been a long time since I've had an Oh For.
Almost 7 weeks.
I hate when the Fucking Sharks win.
Lose 400.

Flyers Puck Line Straight Bet

Small Bet 3 Teamer
Flyers Puck Line
Buffalo Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

1-1 because I didn't wake up early enough.
Today should be an easy day.

2 Teamer
Devils Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

---

0-2
It's been a long time since I've had an Oh For.
Almost 7 weeks.
I hate when the Fucking Sharks win.
Lose 400.

Flyers Puck Line Straight Bet

Small Bet 3 Teamer
Flyers Puck Line
Buffalo Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

---

Thanks for not holding a 3-0 lead Philly.
Appreciate it.
1-2 on the day.
No Bets Today.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

1-1 because I didn't wake up early enough.
Today should be an easy day.

2 Teamer
Devils Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

---

0-2
It's been a long time since I've had an Oh For.
Almost 7 weeks.
I hate when the Fucking Sharks win.
Lose 400.

Flyers Puck Line Straight Bet

Small Bet 3 Teamer
Flyers Puck Line
Buffalo Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

---

Thanks for not holding a 3-0 lead Philly.
Appreciate it.
1-2 on the day.
No Bets Today.

---

Quitter! Like your diets fat fuck!

Drink more green you piece of human shit!

And whatever you do, don’t check that gook of yours pussy when she comes home.

Straight Bet
Knights Puck Line

Small 3 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Penguins Money Line

LUL... I'm cursed.
12 seconds to go and the Ducks ruin the Puck Line.
So Evil.

Two Teamer for tomorrow
Rangers Puck Line
Wild Puck Line

Again with this Bullshit.
Time to jump off the Harris Dam.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Again with this Bullshit.
Time to jump off the Harris Dam.

---

Or stop betting puck lines and parlays. Anyone who has a bankroll and bet the games straight individually AGAIN made good money from your picks.

All bullshit aside I think you know that but for some reason you keep betting this garbage.

Anyways, keep the winners coming for those of us who can read between the lines.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Again with this Bullshit.
Time to jump off the Harris Dam.

---

Or stop betting puck lines and parlays. Anyone who has a bankroll and bet the games straight individually AGAIN made good money from your picks.

All bullshit aside I think you know that but for some reason you keep betting this garbage.

Anyways, keep the winners coming for those of us who can read between the lines.

---

I appreciate monet's hockey expertise. You just have to ignore his parlay expertise.

And Boz, feel free to explain to folks in other threads the true value of the Wizard's "parlay calculator" nonsense. Offshores have started offering their own gratis "parlay calculators" to help out the rubes.

And, oh yeah, the only future I bet this football season looks like it might make some money. Vols will likely lose this week, but if they win out after that (UTEP, Vanderbilt), they are better than 50/50 to be in the playoff. We'll see. I could hedge this week, but as monet and my better half say, hedging is for weenies.

I have Vols at 50-1 to win the whole shebang. Regardless of outcome, it was a decent investment. I labeled it a C- or thereabouts at the time. Still kind of agree with that. They have weaknesses. My God, they went scoreless in first halves for three straight games, which is almost impossible. And won two of them and are ranked. Almost impossible. Good front four on defense, though.

Bullshit... I won today because I didn't post my picks.
And I got pretty Fucking Lucky with the Knights scoring 2 goals in the last minute.
And the Flames got the Empty Netter.

2 Teamer nearly paid 5 to 1.
I bet $400.
I won a little over $1900.
I'll post the tickets later.

For the record, I was pretty unlucky with three losses in a row where last second goals ruined the Puck Line.
But each time I was over a 97% chance to cash.
Due to happen, as I had a monster run at the end of last season and beginning of this season.
I had the Knights at +190... probably not the sharpest line.
This is what you Naysayers do not understand about the NHL Puck Line and Empty Net Goals...

I'm playing like a girl today.

Small 4 Teamer
Penguins Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Kings Puck Line
Canucks Puck Line

Pays 24.5 to 1

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

I'm playing like a girl today.

Small 4 Teamer
Penguins Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Kings Puck Line
Canucks Puck Line

Pays 24.5 to 1

---

Canes Win 4-0
Kings Win 4-1
Canucks Win with 2 Empty Netters 4-1
Mother Fucking Penguins up 3-0 but can't hold.
They win in OT 4-3.
I only bet a hundred bucks to win about 2450.
Sharks been ruining my week.
4 Times in a row now lol.
Anyone, that has any clue, can see that Parlays can easily be beaten.
Whatever.

35-21 in the NHL so far this season.
That's 62.5%.
I'm winning more cash because of parlays compared to betting straight

Tomorrow...

3 Teamer
Canes Puck Line
Rangers Puck Line
Canucks Money Line

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

I'm playing like a girl today.

Small 4 Teamer
Penguins Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Kings Puck Line
Canucks Puck Line

Pays 24.5 to 1

---

Canes Win 4-0
Kings Win 4-1
Canucks Win with 2 Empty Netters 4-1
Mother Fucking Penguins up 3-0 but can't hold.
They win in OT 4-3.
I only bet a hundred bucks to win about 2450.
Sharks been ruining my week.
4 Times in a row now lol.
Anyone, that has any clue, can see that Parlays can easily be beaten.
Whatever.

---

Great stuff Monet. Parlays, like individual games, can be undervalued. So, for example, if this parlay had had a true probability of 20 to 1, but you are getting 24.5 to 1 then you grab the parlay. Or, if you simply know which teams will win, like yourself, then you take the parlay.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tableplay

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

I'm playing like a girl today.

Small 4 Teamer
Penguins Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Kings Puck Line
Canucks Puck Line

Pays 24.5 to 1

---

Canes Win 4-0
Kings Win 4-1
Canucks Win with 2 Empty Netters 4-1
Mother Fucking Penguins up 3-0 but can't hold.
They win in OT 4-3.
I only bet a hundred bucks to win about 2450.
Sharks been ruining my week.
4 Times in a row now lol.
Anyone, that has any clue, can see that Parlays can easily be beaten.
Whatever.

---

Great stuff Monet. Parlays, like individual games, can be undervalued. So, for example, if this parlay had had a true probability of 20 to 1, but you are getting 24.5 to 1 then you grab the parlay. Or, if you simply know which teams will win, like yourself, then you take the parlay.

---

It gets better if you shop around when lines open.
You're probably getting around 3 or 4 points better.
I don't have the time or patience to nit it up to the nth degree.
Positive Play is Positive Play.
When you're getting 5 to 1 on a 2 Teamer that has an 85%+ success rate it really doesn't matter now, does it?
Anyone can beat it.
Check the math on that... I think it's positive :)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Bullshit... I won today because I didn't post my picks.
And I got pretty Fucking Lucky with the Knights scoring 2 goals in the last minute.
And the Flames got the Empty Netter.

2 Teamer nearly paid 5 to 1.
I bet $400.
I won a little over $1900.
I'll post the tickets later.

---

Do Not Bet or Listen to my Parlay Advice.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

When you're getting 5 to 1 on a 2 Teamer that has an 85%+ success rate it really doesn't matter now, does it?

---

That's right. At that point, the bigger problem is how to get your action into the books (lots of small bets on the same parlay at various William Hill kiosks I would guess).

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

35-21 in the NHL so far this season.
That's 62.5%.
I'm winning more cash because of parlays compared to betting straight

Tomorrow...

3 Teamer
Canes Puck Line
Rangers Puck Line
Canucks Money Line

---

37-22 (62.7%)

Canes Win 4-1
Rangers Win 2-0
Preds Win 5-3
Canucks had a disastrous 2nd Period but even in this loss it still proves how strong the Empty Net is as the Preds get the Open Goal.
They can't beat me forever.
Just a matter of time before I go 7-0 on the day.

Hey monet. Keep killin' 'em.


I hope you saw my teaser in the other thread (Ravens/Steelers Under teased with Texans/Dallas Over). I'm getting superstitious now. Literally everything I posted here has made money. That may stop with my Vols at 50-1 to win NCAA title. They may not make the cut. I'm hoping it comes down to a "If A happens, they are in; If B they are not." Then I could hedge pre-playoff. At those odds, I have some open teasers waiting for good use.

Still shopping for some other longshot squads. I have nothing at this point. Penn State, Ohio State, Texas all overrated and short odds.

I have a brilliant observation regarding the playoff, which I will do a blog about. The SEC got snookered in a way. Why do you agree to a format where all of these fast, bombardier SEC teams (that includes everyone but Tennessee) get to play road games at higher rated teams in 10-degree weather? LOL. They cut their own throats. They probably have three of the four best teams in the country, and they will all be on the road in winter. Duhhhhhh. I knew I'd get to use a line about SEC SATs versus Big 10 sometime.

2 Teamer
Canes Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

You can get a little better if you put the Stars on the Alternate Puck Line (-2.5).
I hate the Sharks and it's about time for them to lose by 3 or more goals.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

2 Teamer

Canes Puck Line
Stars Puck Line

You can get a little better if you put the Stars on the Alternate Puck Line (-2.5).
I hate the Sharks and it's about time for them to lose by 3 or more goals.

---

39-22 (63.9%)

Only Paid 3.5 to 1 this time.
Stars needed TWO EMPTY NETTERS to cover for me!
Don't Bet Parlays!

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Hey monet. Keep killin' 'em.


I hope you saw my teaser in the other thread (Ravens/Steelers Under teased with Texans/Dallas Over). I'm getting superstitious now. Literally everything I posted here has made money. That may stop with my Vols at 50-1 to win NCAA title. They may not make the cut. I'm hoping it comes down to a "If A happens, they are in; If B they are not." Then I could hedge pre-playoff. At those odds, I have some open teasers waiting for good use.

Still shopping for some other longshot squads. I have nothing at this point. Penn State, Ohio State, Texas all overrated and short odds.

I have a brilliant observation regarding the playoff, which I will do a blog about. The SEC got snookered in a way. Why do you agree to a format where all of these fast, bombardier SEC teams (that includes everyone but Tennessee) get to play road games at higher rated teams in 10-degree weather? LOL. They cut their own throats. They probably have three of the four best teams in the country, and they will all be on the road in winter. Duhhhhhh. I knew I'd get to use a line about SEC SATs versus Big 10 sometime.

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I missed it but I kinda hate teasers.
I don't understand your teasers and hedging.
You don't understand my Parlay Betting.
We Even.

Well, now my head is really messed up. Vols are the 11th ranked team for a 12-team playoff, but as of right now would not make it. LOL.

SEC and Big 10 will wind up bailing on the NCAA and having their own playoff, which actually makes more sense that the current situation.

Damn, I have a decent chunk on this. It was about a C- investment, but I did it, mainly because there was nothing else. I did consider Indiana to win the Big 10 but failed to pull the trigger. Also considered SMU at long odds for the national title, but I delayed on them, and they looked so lousy the first two weeks I passed. They changed QBs and look much better. I wanted Ole Miss, but their odds were too short. Everybody was on them early. I'm actually surprised they lost the games they did.

This Vols situation brings back memories of me taking TCU at 100-1 to win the national title when they had what Karen described as "ninjas" on defense. I saw them play one game and said, "Holy hell."

So they went undefeated, with a game to go were second ranked for a two-team playoff, won their last game, then got voted down to third. LOL.

That was the year Oregon played Cam Newton's Auburn squad for the title after Auburn ponied up half a mill for Cam's dad back when it was illegal.

Here is the problem Red. In the highly successful NCAA basketball tournament, the NCAA can reward and include many smaller, lesser schools that have had good seasons at their level, in the smaller conferences. These school have little to no chance of winning the whole thing, but when one of them knocks off one of the big boys, a larger, more talented school in the first of second round, well that is what is so special about March Madness.

Apparently the NCAA wants to duplicate that with football, providing a path for teams from lesser conferences, rewarding them for a good season against lesser competition. The problem is there is not 64 or 68 slots like basketball. There is 12. So when a Boise State who has had a great season, with a great running back under consideration for the hielaman, against lesser completion is given one of the few 12 spots, it means a much better school like a Tennessee will be left out. They really have to decide, do they want the 12 best schools to compete for the championship or do they want to create a path for smaller schools, rewarding a good season against lesser competition.

Even more extreme....what if Army gets in? They are NOT one of the top 12 schools. They are not one of the top 25 schools. BUT they have had a really nice season against lesser competition. Should they be rewarded for that or should it be the best 12 teams competing for the college football championship. THAT is what the NCAA is going to have to decide next.

In my mind it should be the 12 best college teams, but that would shut the door on 80% of college teams that play football. But you just can't duplicate what basketball can do with 64, or now 68 slots available when you only have 12 slots like football. And if you add more teams to the tournament, you will be playing college football past the superbowl, right up until March madness time.

Unfortunately for you Red, Tennessee is one of the best 12 teams, but damn it they lost some games. They have nothing to cry about. They had a path. They lost some games including one they had no business losing.

. .

I don't think Tennessee is very good, but they have done enough given who everyone else has played.

One of the problems is that each game is treated the same regardless of when in the season it takes place. What I mean by that is a season is a chronological stream, not building blocks that can be taken in and out of each other's places. So when Tennessee handles Oklahoma in Oklahoma early, that contributed mightily to the fall of Oklahoma season-wise. The Oklahoma that showed up for that game is not the same Oklahoma that gets their asses kicked in November after collapsing in a heap and having a third of their team ready to transfer. Two different teams.

If you blast a team early, is what I'm saying, it often means more than if you blast them after they've waved a white flag on the season.

For those logic/stat buffs, what I'm suggesting is that fucking your niece when she's 15 is not the same as fucking her when she's 25 (sorry, little shocking ribaldness to loosen your minds up). To assign identical statistical quantities to those events (either playing Oklahoma or fucking your niece) when they are separated in time is a fundamental error in both logic and math.

Finally, take Texas. Their "quality wins" are against Arkansas and Vanderbilt. Despite this, nobody is suggesting they stay home. In fact, the Arkansas game, which they won, looked very much like the game Tennessee lost to Arkansas, except Texas hung on. The games were very, very similar.

Well you gotta win the games on your schedule. If you don't you have nothing to cry about. You are a basketball fan right Red? I am a big Nova fan. Ever since Jay wright retired, Villanova starts terrible every year. They lose games in November they have no business losing...cupcake games that are only there to pad your schedule. They come January and February when they are playing better and work their way back to "the bubble", they really aren't on the bubble. Not with losses that the NCAA categorized as "bad losses" to weaker, lesser teams.

Last year it was losses to Drexel, Penn and St Joes. You lose those games (big 5 games BTW) in November before the season gets rolling, you have no chance. THIS year they have already lost to Columbia and St Joes. Columbia!! at Home. They are all but eliminated from the big dance before Thanksgiving. Before they have played a single big east conference game. No matter what...you gotta win the games on your schedule that you are supposed to win. Villanova hasn't been doing that and Tennessee football didn't do that against Arkansas. And when you don't, you have nothing to cry about.

before the footabll season begins you can look at the schedule and see the path for each team. For Tennessee, because they didn't play Texas, which was not their fault, but rather the fault of creating conferences that are too big, their season boiled down to 2 games. Alabama and Georgia. Win Both and you are in. Split them and you are in (assuming you win all the other games you are supposed to win). But if you lose a game that you shouldn't, then splitting probably isn't good enough unless things just happen to break for you.

Once you lose a game you shouldn't, you HAVE to win both those games. And they didn't. They have nothing to cry about.

I don't care who's in goal... Jets Puck Line with a Sizeable Bet.

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

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Originally Posted by NateBlazewind

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

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Puck Line +160
Jets are on Fire.
Penguins Suck this year.
Doesn't mean it's a lock but it's 90%+

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

before the footabll season begins you can look at the schedule and see the path for each team. For Tennessee, because they didn't play Texas, which was not their fault, but rather the fault of creating conferences that are too big, their season boiled down to 2 games. Alabama and Georgia. Win Both and you are in. Split them and you are in (assuming you win all the other games you are supposed to win). But if you lose a game that you shouldn't, then splitting probably isn't good enough unless things just happen to break for you.

Once you lose a game you shouldn't, you HAVE to win both those games. And they didn't. They have nothing to cry about.

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Good to know that you are as sure of college football as you are of everything else.

Old Jungle Saying: Nothing Travels Like Expertise.

That's sarcasm, Sheldon, depending on how you read that line.

I guess that's why "APs" are considered, to use a line I apply to mickey, "Leonardo Da APs." They take grade school math, a couple of card-counting lessons, read Max Rubin, and voila, experts at blackjack, sports betting, video poker, comps hustling, and probability in general.

Axelwolf and Shackleford (he of the adjunct professor gig) are perfect examples. Can you think of anyone else? LOL.

You know, me posting here is ridiculous. I have some card counter/male whore (depending on which posts you read; add them up) AP-'splainin' to me how I should interpret a college football team's schedule. I mean, good God, Billy Walters wouldn't be that condescending and full of himself.

You guys enjoy your expertise.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

before the footabll season begins you can look at the schedule and see the path for each team. For Tennessee, because they didn't play Texas, which was not their fault, but rather the fault of creating conferences that are too big, their season boiled down to 2 games. Alabama and Georgia. Win Both and you are in. Split them and you are in (assuming you win all the other games you are supposed to win). But if you lose a game that you shouldn't, then splitting probably isn't good enough unless things just happen to break for you.

Once you lose a game you shouldn't, you HAVE to win both those games. And they didn't. They have nothing to cry about.

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Good to know that you are as sure of college football as you are of everything else.

Old Jungle Saying: Nothing Travels Like Expertise.

That's sarcasm, Sheldon, depending on how you read that line.

I guess that's why "APs" are considered, to use a line I apply to mickey, "Leonardo Da APs." They take grade school math, a couple of card-counting lessons, read Max Rubin, and voila, experts at blackjack, sports betting, video poker, comps hustling, and probability in general.

Axelwolf and Shackleford (he of the adjunct professor gig) are perfect examples. Can you think of anyone else? LOL.

You know, me posting here is ridiculous. I have some card counter/male whore (depending on which posts you read; add them up) AP-'splainin' to me how I should interpret a college football team's schedule. I mean, good God, Billy Walters wouldn't be that condescending and full of himself.

You guys enjoy your expertise.

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Wait!
Don't Go.
Come back Red.
I need some Riddles!!

Riddles?

What’s fat as fuck, can’t be trusted, hasn’t seen it’s own cock in years, looks homeless and is a sucker the sports books love?

I know, way too easy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Riddles?

What’s fat as fuck, can’t be trusted, hasn’t seen it’s own cock in years, looks homeless and is a sucker the sports books love?

I know, way too easy.

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Yeah, but how much money did you bet on his pick the Winnepeg Jets tonight Boz? You trash him (and that is between you and him), but I know you are tagging along just as I am. :D

Oh Great.
Y'all in here jinxing me!
Now I'm gonna lose 13 Hunge.
Whatever.
The safer bet was probably the Over.
But I ain't passing up +160 for an at worse coin flip.

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Originally Posted by monet

I don't care who's in goal... Jets Puck Line with a Sizeable Bet.

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Originally Posted by monet

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Originally Posted by NateBlazewind

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

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Puck Line +160
Jets are on Fire.
Penguins Suck this year.
Doesn't mean it's a lock but it's 90%+

---

Fucking Refs tried to cheat me.
That wasn't a Fucking Trip, that guy lost an edge and fell down on his own.
And the Refs didn't call an obvious Trip against the Penguins with 4 minutes to play.
WHATEVER!
Open Net Goal comes through like always and we win 4-1.
I won something like $2076 and I actually moved the line from +160 to +140.
Stupid 3- and 400-dollar bets at the kiosk.
That Fucking Book is Scarred.
They're also SCARED!

Oh yeah, I also parlayed 200 on the Jets Puck Line with the Detroit Lions -7.5 for something like 4.2 to 1.
And another 100-dollar four teamer with Jets PL, Lions -7.5, Eagles -3 and the Chiefs -11.
That one pays 18 to 1.
Dabbling in the NFL but we all know the NHL Puck Line is where the easy money lives.
Wouldn't mind checking Druff's Picks if he didn't post with only 2 minutes to go.

11/23/2024

2 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line

3 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Jets Puck Line

Put Ten Bucks on it.

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Originally Posted by monet

Jets Puck Line

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When I got to the book, early this morning, this line was actually +1.5 -220 so you don't bet that.
In this instance you would realize the mistake and bet the Money Line.
I made a mistake and bet it on one of my tickets anyways, lol.
I don't like to make corrections, so I put some more down on another ticket with the Money Line.
I have something like $596 in total action today.

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Originally Posted by monet

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by NateBlazewind

Interesting call! What odds are you seeing on the Jets Puck Line right now? Curious if you factored in recent performance or any injuries.

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Puck Line +160
Jets are on Fire.
Penguins Suck this year.
Doesn't mean it's a lock but it's 90%+

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Fucking Refs tried to cheat me.
That wasn't a Fucking Trip, that guy lost an edge and fell down on his own.
And the Refs didn't call an obvious Trip against the Penguins with 4 minutes to play.
WHATEVER!
Open Net Goal comes through like always and we win 4-1.
I won something like $2076 and I actually moved the line from +160 to +140.
Stupid 3- and 400-dollar bets at the kiosk.
That Fucking Book is Scarred.
They're also SCARED!

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We can beat Straight Betting Too...

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Originally Posted by monet

11/23/2024

2 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line

3 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Jets Puck Line

Put Ten Bucks on it.

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Blue Jacket six on five goal Bullshit!
That's the spot we want to be in though.
Up 4-3 with a minute and thirty seconds for the empty netter.
I'll take that position every single day.
I had Utah over the Penguins too but decided with the Canes instead.
FUCK.
I hate losing.
I didn't lose much as I had the Knights on a 300-dollar Puck Line Straight Bet.
Their winning 6-3 with a couple minutes to go.

Utah on a back-to-back going into Toronto tomorrow.
Utah looking good in the games they win but I'll take the Leafs Puck Line anyways.

On the bright side my, Bone in Prime Rib Roast should be done soon.
That's gonna go be good.

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

11/23/2024

2 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line

3 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Jets Puck Line

Put Ten Bucks on it.

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Blue Jacket six on five goal Bullshit!
That's the spot we want to be in though.
Up 4-3 with a minute and thirty seconds for the empty netter.
I'll take that position every single day.

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Yeah YOU have had some real bad luck with this the past week or so. Usually when a team pulls the goaltender in a 1 goal game, if there is a goal scored it is scored into the open net. Rarely does that 6-5 even work. But it has gone against you I think 4 times (at least 3) in the last week.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

11/23/2024

2 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line

3 Teamer
Knights Puck Line
Canes Puck Line
Jets Puck Line

Put Ten Bucks on it.

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Blue Jacket six on five goal Bullshit!
That's the spot we want to be in though.
Up 4-3 with a minute and thirty seconds for the empty netter.
I'll take that position every single day.

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Yeah YOU have had some real bad luck with this the past week or so. Usually when a team pulls the goaltender in a 1 goal game, if there is a goal scored it is scored into the open net. Rarely does that 6-5 even work. But it has gone against you I think 4 times (at least 3) in the last week.

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I noticed the Leafs line opened at -1.5 +135 but looks like it's down to +120 or so at the moment.
I'm still live with the Jets Puck Line win the other day as I have a 2 Teamer with the Lions -7.5 that pays 4.2 to 1.
And a 4 Teamer that pays 18 to 1.
Gonna wait and see if the Lions cover before I bet the Leafs.
Cashing an extra grand will determine bet size.
And if you're wondering, there is no formula.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Yeah YOU have had some real bad luck with this the past week or so. Usually when a team pulls the goaltender in a 1 goal game, if there is a goal scored it is scored into the open net. Rarely does that 6-5 even work. But it has gone against you I think 4 times (at least 3) in the last week.

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Actually, worse than the way you are describing it.
What happened was, I was up by 2 goals and the opposing team killed the puckline with 12 seconds to go in multiple games, in a row.
I didn't lose much but it cost me about 12 grand in winnings.
Power of the Parlay.
Don't bet Parlays.

Looks as if Vols are in IF they beat Vanderbilt. We have them at 50-1, so that would be ka-ching, regardless of opponent.

The whole thing is kind of silly. They don't pay the scrub-conference teams the same as the "power" conference teams. And Boise would be a 17-point underdog to Georgia or Ohio State, and likely a 14-point dog to Texas.

Meanwhile, in the LineMasters contest, my better half had her first losing day of the SEASON with a 2-3 record yesterday and one NFL game today. Wild stuff.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Looks as if Vols are in IF they beat Vanderbilt. We have them at 50-1, so that would be ka-ching, regardless of opponent.

The whole thing is kind of silly. They don't pay the scrub-conference teams the same as the "power" conference teams. And Boise would be a 17-point underdog to Georgia or Ohio State, and likely a 14-point dog to Texas.

Meanwhile, in the LineMasters contest, my better half had her first losing day of the SEASON with a 2-3 record yesterday and one NFL game today. Wild stuff.

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No offense.
I luv ya brah but 50-1 means more like 18-1 for you.

Talk about empty net goals, around the 3 min mark in the video.
This is a thing of beauty!
Puck banks off the boards and goes in with 0.9 seconds left.
Double Points for doing this to the Sharks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvtU-ulYFS8

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Looks as if Vols are in IF they beat Vanderbilt. We have them at 50-1, so that would be ka-ching, regardless of opponent.

The whole thing is kind of silly. They don't pay the scrub-conference teams the same as the "power" conference teams. And Boise would be a 17-point underdog to Georgia or Ohio State, and likely a 14-point dog to Texas.

Meanwhile, in the LineMasters contest, my better half had her first losing day of the SEASON with a 2-3 record yesterday and one NFL game today. Wild stuff.

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No offense.
I luv ya brah but 50-1 means more like 18-1 for you.

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LOL. It means ka-ching to me. Vanderbilt is not a gimme, by the way. I'm going to guess Vols are -10 1/2 or thereabouts. I could be wrong.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Looks as if Vols are in IF they beat Vanderbilt. We have them at 50-1, so that would be ka-ching, regardless of opponent.

The whole thing is kind of silly. They don't pay the scrub-conference teams the same as the "power" conference teams. And Boise would be a 17-point underdog to Georgia or Ohio State, and likely a 14-point dog to Texas.

Meanwhile, in the LineMasters contest, my better half had her first losing day of the SEASON with a 2-3 record yesterday and one NFL game today. Wild stuff.

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No offense.
I luv ya brah but 50-1 means more like 18-1 for you.

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LOL. It means ka-ching to me. Vanderbilt is not a gimme, by the way. I'm going to guess Vols are -10 1/2 or thereabouts. I could be wrong.

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So, you probably already been hedging and devaluing the 50-1.
Keep us posted!

2 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Eagles -3

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Originally Posted by monet

2 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Eagles -3

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We in Action!
240 to win 888.
Nobody can lose with that number.
888 is Super Lucky.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

2 Teamer
Leafs Puck Line
Eagles -3

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We in Action!
240 to win 888.
Nobody can lose with that number.
888 is Super Lucky.

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How the Fuck did we lose with the 888 winning payout number?
This Fucking Sucks.
Alright, it's not the end of the world.
We only lost 240 dollars.
We can get it back tomorrow.
Plenty of Hockey Games to choose from.
Just because we’re down, and we’re fat, and we’re ugly, and we’re broke, doesn’t mean it’s over!

Alright, we haven't been shooting for any 4 Teamers.
It's time.

3 Teamer
Rangers PL
Knights PL
Kings PL

4 Teamer
Devils PL
Rangers PL
Knights PL
Kings PL

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Alright, we haven't been shooting for any 4 Teamers.
It's time.

3 Teamer
Rangers PL
Knights PL
Kings PL

4 Teamer
Devils PL
Rangers PL
Knights PL
Kings PL

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

No offense.
I luv ya brah but 50-1 means more like 18-1 for you.

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LOL. It means ka-ching to me. Vanderbilt is not a gimme, by the way. I'm going to guess Vols are -10 1/2 or thereabouts. I could be wrong.

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So, you probably already been hedging and devaluing the 50-1.
Keep us posted!

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Actually, monet, I have not. I have, however (since I don't particularly like Tennessee), bet against them a bunch of times -- Oklahoma (winner), Alabama (loser), Kentucky (winner), Florida (winner), and Miss State (winner). Bear in mind that these were teaser bets, so a win is really only a half win while the loss is a full loss.

But I appreciate the insinuation that I'm being less than stellar with my reporting.

Wait, wait, let me guess. I'm not reporting my moneyline bet on UTEP to beat them outright.

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Originally Posted by The Boz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Alright, we haven't been shooting for any 4 Teamers.
It's time.

3 Teamer
Rangers PL
Knights PL
Kings PL

4 Teamer
Devils PL
Rangers PL
Knights PL
Kings PL

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I loved that show. The Madsen character was based on Doyle Brunson, so if the real-world grandfatherly image of Doyle Brunson was pretty much a (as kewlJ says) "misdirection," imagine what other vipers slither amongst the poker stars.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by redietz

LOL. It means ka-ching to me. Vanderbilt is not a gimme, by the way. I'm going to guess Vols are -10 1/2 or thereabouts. I could be wrong.

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So, you probably already been hedging and devaluing the 50-1.
Keep us posted!

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Actually, monet, I have not. I have, however (since I don't particularly like Tennessee), bet against them a bunch of times -- Oklahoma (winner), Alabama (loser), Kentucky (winner), Florida (winner), and Miss State (winner). Bear in mind that these were teaser bets, so a win is really only a half win while the loss is a full loss.

But I appreciate the insinuation that I'm being less than stellar with my reporting.

Wait, wait, let me guess. I'm not reporting my moneyline bet on UTEP to beat them outright.

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Trying to explain anything to a guy betting puck line parlays is a waste of your valuable time.

I will give the guy credit for going on decent streaks but he still loses because he’s a degenerative gambler trying to change his life with big hits. We all know guys without the bankroll to bet their games so they get desperate.

It’s not a story we both haven’t seen many times over the years.