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What if the player lost 1000 credits @ .25 , then bumped up and lost 1000 credits @ .50 , then bumped up to dollars and lost $695 before hitting this hand. They would be ahead by $2555.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Is there any reason why that couldn't happen over and over again?
I play video poker following the strategies of Dancer and Growchowski, MrV. I play the best paytables available. At Red Rock they even have 8/5 Bonus at 25-cents. I use a card, I make use of comps and free play. I think that's a lot of what AP is for video poker.
I do not play blackjack. I hate the game. I don't count cards.
There is a way to play craps that will cut the house edge and might give you an advantage... but you'd never believe it.
If you are talking about anything other than that hoary chestnut, dice influencing: I'd like to know; try me.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Seriously, what method of craps play can cut the house edge?
Betting systems CANNOT over come a negative expectation game on a long-term basis! Period. End of story. Stop buying into Singer Voodoo!Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWhat if the player lost 1000 credits @ .25 , then bumped up and lost 1000 credits @ .50 , then bumped up to dollars and lost $695 before hitting this hand. They would be ahead by $2555.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Is there any reason why that couldn't happen over and over again?
This is like saying "how hard is it to hit 2 out of 3, black on roulette? Why not just do that over and over and over? "
If it worked, these people would be billionaire and not here posting this bullshit!Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJBetting systems CANNOT over come a negative expectation game on a long-term basis! Period. End of story. Stop buying into Singer Voodoo!Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWhat if the player lost 1000 credits @ .25 , then bumped up and lost 1000 credits @ .50 , then bumped up to dollars and lost $695 before hitting this hand. They would be ahead by $2555.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Is there any reason why that couldn't happen over and over again?
This is like saying "how hard is it to hit 2 out of 3, black on roulette? Why not just do that over and over and over? "
Kewlj wrote: "Betting systems CANNOT over come a negative expectation game on a long-term basis! Period. End of story. Stop buying into Singer Voodoo!"
True. But why do you have to play over a long term basis?
(You don't have to answer because we already know what you'll say.)
Kewlj also wrote: "This is like saying 'how hard is it to hit 2 out of 3, black on roulette? Why not just do that over and over and over?' "
How about just hitting two out of three once and taking the profit? We know you're not going to hit it over and over so why keep trying?
I guess if that's your job you have to keep trying.
Jbjb wrote "If it worked, these people would be billionaire and not here posting this bullshit!"
You're talking about the APs right? The rest of us don't treat the casinos as our personal ATMs, but the APs do.
It would follow that all you banned APs would have better things to do than obsess about and criticize the play of others.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Does someone have to be a billionaire to debunk your guarantee that they have lost more at TDB than they've won?
It's not possible to play infrequently enough so that a $4K jackpot puts them ahead for their lifetime?
Isn't an individual's play history the only longterm that matters to them?...even if it's a short period compared to yours?
You guys who claim to be so happy and successful at what you do are the main angry and miserable contributors here.
You defined the long-term earlier, so you understand that most players do not ever reach the long-term....agreed?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Is it possible to employ a short-term strategy...and win in the short term?
No it is not.
Of course it is. People do it every minute of the day.
The long run is the sum of many short terms. To say you can win (predictably) in the short term is to say you can win in the long run.
Anyone can win unpredictably in the short term, but no one is or should be interested in that — RE luck. To win unpredictably in the long run, you need a lot more luck than in the short term.
It’s easy to get lucky on a few hands. It’s difficult to get lucky on many hands.
Yes it is. BUT when you start talking about doing this over and over and over, then you are no longer talking short-term, you are talking long-term. You can't have it both ways. It's like you are Dr. Frankenstein trying to create your own alternative "long-term" that will defy the mathematics of long term principals (Law of Large Numbers). You just can't do that. You can not have it both ways.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJYes it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
I'm not talking about long-term, I'm talking about short-term.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Most players will never reach the long-term as you define it, their total play is their "long-term"...but it's short-term to someone like you.
Since their total play is short-term, perhaps the Law of Large Numbers would not apply.
Isn't that possible? Does the Law of Large Numbers apply to small numbers?
Whaaaa?? You think the machines suddenly stop and wait for you to come back next trip and start from there?? And the MATH is calculated like that? Sure, I may win only $60 (quarters) this trip, $100 the next, etc. before I hit a big win.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJYes it is. BUT when you start talking about doing this over and over and over, then you are no longer talking short-term, you are talking long-term. You can't have it both ways. It's like you are Dr. Frankenstein trying to create your own alternative "long-term" that will defy the mathematics of long term principals (Law of Large Numbers). You just can't do that. You can not have it both ways.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Its all luck. It doesn't matter if you're playing one hand or one million hands. You don't control or influence the RNG.
You might play perfect strategy but if the RNG doesn't give you the card you need you lose.
With all do respect; luck is short term and math is long term.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
I'm not talking about long-term, I'm talking about short-term.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Most players will never reach the long-term as you define it, their total play is their "long-term"...but it's short-term to someone like you.
Since their total play is short-term, perhaps the Law of Large Numbers would not apply.
Isn't that possible? Does the Law of Large Numbers apply to small numbers?
Fair enough...now define long-term and the difference between short-term and long-term.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deech
It depends. How long do you expect to live. It,s funny, this is the crap the AP,s are getting. I love being neutral.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyFair enough...now define long-term and the difference between short-term and long-term.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deech
Nicely stated. I and other AP have said this numerous times in many different types of wording....BUT the problem is we are dealing with an anti-AP fraction here that refuses to believe in the math. It's like trying to have a conversation with people that continue to believe the earth is flat. It just doesn't work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Deech