Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads seven times that is not so unusual. Just normal short term fluctuation. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times it is not going to come up heads 7,000 times. Not even close. That is, if the game is fair. That's the law of large numbers.

The thing about short term variance is it works against you just as much as it works for you. That's what Alan and Belly don't talk about. Alan's response to this will be "I don't flip coins."

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads seven times that is not so unusual. Just normal short term fluctuation. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times it is not going to come up heads 7,000 times. Not even close. That is, if the game is fair. That's the law of large numbers.

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Doesn't the law of large numbers apply to VP ?

For instance, won't the number of quads approach expectation after 10000 hands, even if you didn't hit any quads for your first 7000 hands?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads seven times that is not so unusual. Just normal short term fluctuation. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times it is not going to come up heads 7,000 times. Not even close.

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That is because you are doing it wrong mickeycrimm. You don't flip 10,000 times. You flip heads 7 out of 10 times and then just do that over and over and over....1000 times over and then you have your 7000 out of 10,000....changing the math and probabilities. ;)

You just confused half your audience.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

If you flip a coin ten times and it comes up heads seven times that is not so unusual. Just normal short term fluctuation. But if you flip a coin 10,000 times it is not going to come up heads 7,000 times. Not even close. That is, if the game is fair. That's the law of large numbers.

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Doesn't the law of large numbers apply to VP ?

For instance, won't the number of quads approach expectation after 10000 hands, even if you didn't hit any quads for your first 7000 hands?

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Yes, of course. But you’re not (expected) going to get 7k hands worth of quads in 3k hands plus the 3k worth of quads. You’ll have 0 quads, then 3k worth of quads, which moves the needle from 0% to 30% (of expectation). After 10,000 more hands, you’ll be at 65% worth of quads. After 100k hands you’ll be at 93% of the expected number of quads. Assuming you get the quads at the expected rate. After a million hands you’ll be at 99.3% of expected quads.


@Deech, I’m almost certain KJ was being facetious.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

What axel says isn't entirely true. AP's by nature and by & large bring their own troubles to their play. At the lucrative Revel promo for instance, every AP who got thrown out or had his promo play nullified thought they were going to outsmart the casino, but they all got caught breaking or illegally manipulating the very clear and explicit rules that were available for every customer to review and understand. Yet predictably, we saw some of these people moan and whine on WoV about how they got "cheated" and immediately the armchair sheep and others on that forum jumped up and supported their lies and spin.

And this is just, as I said, an example of a long list of fabrications by the AP community. But there are also I'm sure, a good many ap's who neither pretend nor complain, and they play by the rules and accept the bumps and bruises, because they know better in their "long run". I teamed financially and in other ways with one for Revel, and he returned with an $8k profit without the need for the free-play because he agreed to play my strategy before going.

It is what it is, and it is what you make of it....not what you make up about it in an effort to enhance perceived capability.

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. Show me a copy of the rules, please. The rules didn't cover all angles. I would agree, some things are just implied.

Not every AP there engaged in shenanigans. I did not myself. I did warn a group that they were being watched and creating attention. They disregarded my advice and got fucked. There we some others who took out a line of credit knowing the casino might catch on and used that as levrage.

we played somthing and beat the promo without ever having to collect one rebate. Of course, they shut all those machines down after they got hit hard.

There were a few people who got fucked by the casino. We had someone that the casino attempted to fuck who did absolutely nothing wrong. He simply played the $100 slot going for the variance. After some jackpots, they renigged on the comps that were promised and 86ed him. There have been many promotions and machines that were played 100% within the rules and yet the casino refused to pay or honor their promo. There have been many times where gaming agreed the casino was out of line and ruled in the AP's favor. I have only had gaming rule against me once. They only did that because the bar was about to be in a world of hurt.

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Of course you'll say those things because you want to believe your buddies. I discussed the promo with the casino after it ended and they told me every single player who got stopped was stopped because they ignored the rules--which were clearly posted at the cage, at the slot club, and were available to review prior to starting play. People who played as a team, card pullers, fake names and ID's, on and on, and they broke every rule because they claimed it gave them an "advantage". And maybe it did--but they only outsmarted and screwed themselves. If you and yours won w/o having to wait for a rebate then you were lucky, just like my friend was.

You guys are so confused about the long term vs. the short term....among other things.

First, the long term only means an individual's playing life, and of course it can be very different for many. That's why one person trying to apply it to someone else is ludicrous. The long term automatically applies to every casino and every game.

What's even more hilarious is when an AP tries to rationalize how playing a 99.99% game will make someone a loser in their version of the long-run....but if that person played a 100.01% game then they absolutely will be a winner in that same long run.

AP's come apart at the seams over what I've accomplished because they are not ones to use their heads beyond what the simple math says. They just cannot get that we as human beings are entirely capable--by using that incredible computer attached to our necks and not the ones from Apple or Dell etc.--of devising methods that create scenarios where certain expected or unexpected results can be prolonged or greatly reduced/eliminated from the standard.

I'm believing there has never been another vp player capable of doing what I have done, which is why there are and have been so many critical, angry, and jealous AP's out there. Naturally they're going to be frustrated when they hear of another's unprecedented success that goes beyond the limits of their intelligence levels.

But there are some very simple points that even their children could comprehend, that is, if any of them could even AFFORD children. Has any of you ever taken $52k to a VP game with the intent of winning less than 5% of your bankroll? Have any of you ever not been confused by the concept of going DOWN in denomination instead of the addict-loving UP after a cashout/pre-set win goal/soft profit is attained? Have any of you ever considered trading a sure or expected push or small winner for the carefully analyzed possibility of hitting a bigger winner, when that winner would allow you to hit a pre-set win goal, today and not over some silly amount of time?

Of course you people don't do any of this stuff because you prefer to think you're smarter than casinos with your "grind-it-out" waste of time nonsense. And then, when faced with the likes of me, all you can do is say "positive means win/negative means lose" while dissing (and never able to explain) the fact that if a method has a very high possibility of winning this session then it has the same possibility of winning every session. And you use the LOLN's as your excuse....even though none of you have ever studied it or know it's true, very complex computational definitions.

Wise up people. When any person is involved instead of a robot, there are no limits to what we can do over any particular amount of time.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

What axel says isn't entirely true. AP's by nature and by & large bring their own troubles to their play. At the lucrative Revel promo for instance, every AP who got thrown out or had his promo play nullified thought they were going to outsmart the casino, but they all got caught breaking or illegally manipulating the very clear and explicit rules that were available for every customer to review and understand. Yet predictably, we saw some of these people moan and whine on WoV about how they got "cheated" and immediately the armchair sheep and others on that forum jumped up and supported their lies and spin.

And this is just, as I said, an example of a long list of fabrications by the AP community. But there are also I'm sure, a good many ap's who neither pretend nor complain, and they play by the rules and accept the bumps and bruises, because they know better in their "long run". I teamed financially and in other ways with one for Revel, and he returned with an $8k profit without the need for the free-play because he agreed to play my strategy before going.

It is what it is, and it is what you make of it....not what you make up about it in an effort to enhance perceived capability.

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. Show me a copy of the rules, please. The rules didn't cover all angles. I would agree, some things are just implied.

Not every AP there engaged in shenanigans. I did not myself. I did warn a group that they were being watched and creating attention. They disregarded my advice and got fucked. There we some others who took out a line of credit knowing the casino might catch on and used that as levrage.

we played somthing and beat the promo without ever having to collect one rebate. Of course, they shut all those machines down after they got hit hard.

There were a few people who got fucked by the casino. We had someone that the casino attempted to fuck who did absolutely nothing wrong. He simply played the $100 slot going for the variance. After some jackpots, they renigged on the comps that were promised and 86ed him. There have been many promotions and machines that were played 100% within the rules and yet the casino refused to pay or honor their promo. There have been many times where gaming agreed the casino was out of line and ruled in the AP's favor. I have only had gaming rule against me once. They only did that because the bar was about to be in a world of hurt.

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Of course you'll say those things because you want to believe your buddies. I discussed the promo with the casino after it ended and they told me every single player who got stopped was stopped because they ignored the rules--which were clearly posted at the cage, at the slot club, and were available to review prior to starting play. People who played as a team, card pullers, fake names and ID's, on and on, and they broke every rule because they claimed it gave them an "advantage". And maybe it did--but they only outsmarted and screwed themselves. If you and yours won w/o having to wait for a rebate then you were lucky, just like my friend was.

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Well then they lied to you. I know it to be a fact since the guy was part of our group. He was playing how he was intructed to and that was to play straight up on the $100 slots.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

You guys are so confused about the long term vs. the short term....among other things.

First, the long term only means an individual's playing life, and of course it can be very different for many. That's why one person trying to apply it to someone else is ludicrous. The long term automatically applies to every casino and every game.

What's even more hilarious is when an AP tries to rationalize how playing a 99.99% game will make someone a loser in their version of the long-run....but if that person played a 100.01% game then they absolutely will be a winner in that same long run.

AP's come apart at the seams over what I've accomplished because they are not ones to use their heads beyond what the simple math says. They just cannot get that we as human beings are entirely capable--by using that incredible computer attached to our necks and not the ones from Apple or Dell etc.--of devising methods that create scenarios where certain expected or unexpected results can be prolonged or greatly reduced/eliminated from the standard.

I'm believing there has never been another vp player capable of doing what I have done, which is why there are and have been so many critical, angry, and jealous AP's out there. Naturally they're going to be frustrated when they hear of another's unprecedented success that goes beyond the limits of their intelligence levels.

But there are some very simple points that even their children could comprehend, that is, if any of them could even AFFORD children. Has any of you ever taken $52k to a VP game with the intent of winning less than 5% of your bankroll? Have any of you ever not been confused by the concept of going DOWN in denomination instead of the addict-loving UP after a cashout/pre-set win goal/soft profit is attained? Have any of you ever considered trading a sure or expected push or small winner for the carefully analyzed possibility of hitting a bigger winner, when that winner would allow you to hit a pre-set win goal, today and not over some silly amount of time?

Of course you people don't do any of this stuff because you prefer to think you're smarter than casinos with your "grind-it-out" waste of time nonsense. And then, when faced with the likes of me, all you can do is say "positive means win/negative means lose" while dissing (and never able to explain) the fact that if a method has a very high possibility of winning this session then it has the same possibility of winning every session. And you use the LOLN's as your excuse....even though none of you have ever studied it or know it's true, very complex computational definitions.

Wise up people. When any person is involved instead of a robot, there are no limits to what we can do over any particular amount of time.

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This entire post is just fantasy. It is untrue. It is mathematically untrue. Mathematically impossible. Ron Singer or whatever your name is, you are simply full of shit. You are living in a fantasy or alternative reality. Pay particular attention to the line I highlighted. There is nothing special about you. You have no magical powers that can turn a -EV game to a winning or +EV game.

Ok so I play blackjack for a living. Most blackjack games are initially a -EV game. Somewhere about .5% house edge depending on exact rules. Very common 6 deck game, dealer hits soft 17 is .64 house advantage. That is initially -EV. So if I were to bet $100 a hand on every hand....I will lose in the long run. No question about it. I think everyone understands this. I will have some winning sessions, some really nice winning sessions, but in the end....in the long run I will lose whatever total action x.64%. THAT is the mathematical formula total action x house advantage (.64% in this case).

Now card counting. I think most people understand card counting, but I will give a quick synopsis. With blackjack the advantage or disadvantage (house edge) is not fixed or constant. It varies by round depending on what cards have been played and what cards remain to be played. So some rounds, the house edge may be larger than .64%, some round the house edge may be smaller than .64% and sometimes, a small percentage of the time, the player actually has an advantage. But all these rounds played at these different advantages, add up to that total .64% house edge (longterm).

So card counting is tracking the cards played, so you know when the remaining cards result in that player advantage. You then bet more in these circumstances, which allows you to change the total advantage ever so lightly to favor the player.....LONG-TERM. This is all mathematical fact. There IS a mathematical basis for how you change the game from -EV to +EV.

Now compare this to video poker. There are no changing cards, so different rounds are not played at different house advantages. The house advantage is what it is. It is fixed or constant. There are a few games with paybacks over 100%, but most are below. And that means EVERY round is below. So if a game starts out 99.5 payback or about .5 house advantage (similar to blackjack) there is nothing to change that. Every round is played at a house advantage of .5%. You will have some winning sessions, same as blackjack, and some losing sessions but the longterm formula is whatever amount of money you have bet (total action) x 99.5% (.5% house advantage).

So if you play 25 cents for several hours at -.5%, and then when losses hit a certain amount, bump up to 50 cents, you are not changing the odds you are just doubling what you will lose (longterm). And if you bump up again to $1, you are again, just multiplying your losses. At no point have you done anything to change the formula, total action x 99.5%

Any kind of claim that progressive betting (moving up in stakes) changes a -EV game into a winning game (+EV) is just pure fantasy. It is mathematical hogwash.

Let's go back to blackjack for a minute. Forget card counting. This is like saying ok I will bet $100 a hand at my -.64% standard house edge, 6 deck game. So after a while, as my losses mount, I double up to $200 a hand. That changes nothing except accelerates the losses. Increasing wagers again to $300 a hand again changes nothing. Formula is still total action x house edge (in this case .64%) All you are doing is increasing the total action and likewise the total losses (longterm).

This Rob Singer person has given us NOTHING to explain how he changes a -EV game into a winning or +EV game, other than stupid remarks about how he is "special" and comments like "he does things that no one else can do or even understand". He might as well be claiming he can flap his arms and fly. And when asked how he can do that, he says "I am special".

Maybe he IS special. Maybe he is Elizabeth Montgomery and can twitch his nose and make the impossible happen. But in the absence of that, he continues to either lie to us, or lie to himself or some combination of the two.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

. Show me a copy of the rules, please. The rules didn't cover all angles. I would agree, some things are just implied.

Not every AP there engaged in shenanigans. I did not myself. I did warn a group that they were being watched and creating attention. They disregarded my advice and got fucked. There we some others who took out a line of credit knowing the casino might catch on and used that as levrage.

we played somthing and beat the promo without ever having to collect one rebate. Of course, they shut all those machines down after they got hit hard.

There were a few people who got fucked by the casino. We had someone that the casino attempted to fuck who did absolutely nothing wrong. He simply played the $100 slot going for the variance. After some jackpots, they renigged on the comps that were promised and 86ed him. There have been many promotions and machines that were played 100% within the rules and yet the casino refused to pay or honor their promo. There have been many times where gaming agreed the casino was out of line and ruled in the AP's favor. I have only had gaming rule against me once. They only did that because the bar was about to be in a world of hurt.

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Of course you'll say those things because you want to believe your buddies. I discussed the promo with the casino after it ended and they told me every single player who got stopped was stopped because they ignored the rules--which were clearly posted at the cage, at the slot club, and were available to review prior to starting play. People who played as a team, card pullers, fake names and ID's, on and on, and they broke every rule because they claimed it gave them an "advantage". And maybe it did--but they only outsmarted and screwed themselves. If you and yours won w/o having to wait for a rebate then you were lucky, just like my friend was.

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Well then they lied to you. I know it to be a fact since the guy was part of our group. He was playing how he was intructed to and that was to play straight up on the $100 slots.

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Axel,

You missed the gist of Argentino's point. He "discussed the promo with the casino." Now the interesting writing aspect is how Argentino swiveled from his discussing it with "the casino," and then following with a clause where he claims it was a "they." Then you reply by parroting his "they," which implies that he asked a person or people. But he really did not say that. He said that he asked "the casino." You fell for the trick.

Now, I'm not sure how the brick-and-mortar answered, or if it was the carpeting or chandeliers that assured him of the truth of what he says, or if it was simply voices in his head, but let me walk you through the writing of this.

Argentino is trying to create the illusion that he asked somebody without specifying an actual person or people. If he does that, and they are still living, some enterprising soul could check up on him by asking that person or people. Then you could verify the status and job description of whoever he allegedly asked at that time. So instead of getting a name or a position, which could be researched, you get that he "discussed the promo with the casino." Then you get a pivot to "they" in the clause following that. Then you get you adopting his "they" as the pronoun used to describe "the casino."

Now Argentino will fret that this was all just lingo and language, and he meant nothing devious by it. I'm sure, he being such an accurate and truthful surveyor of the human condition and all, that he's correct (I'm copying kewlJ's facetiousness here). So all he has to do to make things right, and bring a human into it rather than "the casino," is give the name(s) of who he spoke to in authority, so everyone can track that person or people down and ask them directly. Maybe he asked the janitor on duty in the lower level men's room. At least then there would be a name.

When these dudes post something, you have to X-ray it at least a little. Otherwise, you get Mr. Mendelson's "it's well documented," without his specifying any documentation or you get an alleged reading of "reports" that were just Argentino's posts or you get "I asked the casino" and the casino becomes a "they" and no name is supplied.

Both of these guys are good writers and know exactly what they are doing. They are manipulating you. There's nothing accidental in a piece of writing.

You have to think like a journalism professor grading some student who may have written his paper without doing any research.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

You guys are so confused about the long term vs. the short term....among other things.

First, the long term only means an individual's playing life, and of course it can be very different for many. That's why one person trying to apply it to someone else is ludicrous. The long term automatically applies to every casino and every game.

What's even more hilarious is when an AP tries to rationalize how playing a 99.99% game will make someone a loser in their version of the long-run....but if that person played a 100.01% game then they absolutely will be a winner in that same long run.

AP's come apart at the seams over what I've accomplished because they are not ones to use their heads beyond what the simple math says. They just cannot get that we as human beings are entirely capable--by using that incredible computer attached to our necks and not the ones from Apple or Dell etc.--of devising methods that create scenarios where certain expected or unexpected results can be prolonged or greatly reduced/eliminated from the standard.

I'm believing there has never been another vp player capable of doing what I have done, which is why there are and have been so many critical, angry, and jealous AP's out there. Naturally they're going to be frustrated when they hear of another's unprecedented success that goes beyond the limits of their intelligence levels.

But there are some very simple points that even their children could comprehend, that is, if any of them could even AFFORD children. Has any of you ever taken $52k to a VP game with the intent of winning less than 5% of your bankroll? Have any of you ever not been confused by the concept of going DOWN in denomination instead of the addict-loving UP after a cashout/pre-set win goal/soft profit is attained? Have any of you ever considered trading a sure or expected push or small winner for the carefully analyzed possibility of hitting a bigger winner, when that winner would allow you to hit a pre-set win goal, today and not over some silly amount of time?

Of course you people don't do any of this stuff because you prefer to think you're smarter than casinos with your "grind-it-out" waste of time nonsense. And then, when faced with the likes of me, all you can do is say "positive means win/negative means lose" while dissing (and never able to explain) the fact that if a method has a very high possibility of winning this session then it has the same possibility of winning every session. And you use the LOLN's as your excuse....even though none of you have ever studied it or know it's true, very complex computational definitions.

Wise up people. When any person is involved instead of a robot, there are no limits to what we can do over any particular amount of time.

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That's right. This poster clearly has super powers. It's a good thing for casinos that he spends Wednesdays talking to the dead and the rest of the week communing with nature, usually at Bass Pro Shops.

It does, however, explain Argentino's reticence to spend any time in Las Vegas. It's been well documented (and reported) that Thanos lives at the Plaza. Even Argentino can't handle the infinity stones. I spoke with the Plaza, and they verified that Thanos lives there.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

You guys are so confused about the long term vs. the short term....among other things.

First, the long term only means an individual's playing life, and of course it can be very different for many. That's why one person trying to apply it to someone else is ludicrous. The long term automatically applies to every casino and every game.

What's even more hilarious is when an AP tries to rationalize how playing a 99.99% game will make someone a loser in their version of the long-run....but if that person played a 100.01% game then they absolutely will be a winner in that same long run.

AP's come apart at the seams over what I've accomplished because they are not ones to use their heads beyond what the simple math says. They just cannot get that we as human beings are entirely capable--by using that incredible computer attached to our necks and not the ones from Apple or Dell etc.--of devising methods that create scenarios where certain expected or unexpected results can be prolonged or greatly reduced/eliminated from the standard.

I'm believing there has never been another vp player capable of doing what I have done, which is why there are and have been so many critical, angry, and jealous AP's out there. Naturally they're going to be frustrated when they hear of another's unprecedented success that goes beyond the limits of their intelligence levels.

But there are some very simple points that even their children could comprehend, that is, if any of them could even AFFORD children. Has any of you ever taken $52k to a VP game with the intent of winning less than 5% of your bankroll? Have any of you ever not been confused by the concept of going DOWN in denomination instead of the addict-loving UP after a cashout/pre-set win goal/soft profit is attained? Have any of you ever considered trading a sure or expected push or small winner for the carefully analyzed possibility of hitting a bigger winner, when that winner would allow you to hit a pre-set win goal, today and not over some silly amount of time?

Of course you people don't do any of this stuff because you prefer to think you're smarter than casinos with your "grind-it-out" waste of time nonsense. And then, when faced with the likes of me, all you can do is say "positive means win/negative means lose" while dissing (and never able to explain) the fact that if a method has a very high possibility of winning this session then it has the same possibility of winning every session. And you use the LOLN's as your excuse....even though none of you have ever studied it or know it's true, very complex computational definitions.

Wise up people. When any person is involved instead of a robot, there are no limits to what we can do over any particular amount of time.

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Rob, if your claims are true (highly unlikely given your gambling tactics) then you haven't really done anything extroardinary. Careerwise, I've made more money in gambling than you claim you have.

Kewlj you can count cards in blackjack and that's what gives you an edge. There is no card counting in video poker. That deuce of diamonds can come up in every hand you're dealt four to the royal.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj you can count cards in blackjack and that's what gives you an edge. There is no card counting in video poker. That deuce of diamonds can come up in every hand you're dealt four to the royal.

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Thank you Alan. This was EXACTLY my point. You reiterated my point!

Blackjack, is initially a negative EV game by about half a percent. I laid out exactly what I do to change it from -EV to +EV longterm, so that I can win (and have) longterm.

Similarly video poker that Rob is playing is also -EV by about half a percent (he admits playing negative EV games). BUT he has given us NOTHING to explain how he changes it from a longterm losing game (-EV) to a longterm winning game (+EV) in which he has made 900 thousand dollars. Nothing except smoke and mirrors and a few catch phrases like "I'm special" and "I do things that other players can't understand".

Alan for the hundredth time, betting systems or betting sequences like progressions, CAN NOT change a negative expectation game into a positive expectation game. THAT is what Singer claims.

Now I also play -EV video poker, and have supplemented my income for 8 years doing so. I am able to win because the mailer offers generated are disproportionally high for the amount of play I put in to generate those mailers. That is carefully calculated and planned out. If I lost more generating the free play than the free play was worth, I wouldn't do it. But the free play is worth more than what it costs to generate those free play amounts. THAT is what makes it +EV!

So again, I have explained what it is that I do that changes not one, but 2 different games that I play that are initially -EV into +EV, so that I can win...longterm. Singer has NEVER done this. He just feeds us bullshit. "I am special". "I know and do things others don't". It's bullshit Alan. You can not change the facts. You can not change the math by willing it to be so. The casino is full of people, like you who try. :rolleyes:

Kewlj Rob DOES NOT change -EV video poker into +EV video poker and never said he did.

What he does say is that he wins even when playing -EV VP and leaves with the money.

People do hit winners playing -EV games. It's how you handle the money after you win it that determines if you'll leave with a profit.

You're going to hate me, but it's a matter of win goals and loss limits.

If you think you have a perpetual edge then go ahead and keep playing. But the rest of us playing -EV games when we quit when ahead can show a profit.

Before I met Rob I called it the grandma system. Grandma played the slots, won enough for a buffet and left the machine.

What's so bad about doing that?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj Rob DOES NOT change -EV video poker into +EV video poker and never said he did.

What he does say is that he wins even when playing -EV VP and leaves with the money.

People do hit winners playing -EV games. It's how you handle the money after you win it that determines if you'll leave with a profit.

You're going to hate me, but it's a matter of win goals and loss limits.

If you think you have a perpetual edge then go ahead and keep playing. But the rest of us playing -EV games when we quit when ahead can show a profit.

Before I met Rob I called it the grandma system. Grandma played the slots, won enough for a buffet and left the machine.

What's so bad about doing that?

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I like it- so call me grandpa! But I've coasted long enough this year and all house taxes, insurances, etc. are caught up so I'm getting ready for 2-3 sessions (if ever needed!) Of my favorite artt strategy. By changing machines, if appropriate, after 200 credits- and all the other stuff ( some mentioned in Rob's post above), I have made one session enough for the day by continuing the session on another machine. Oh, I know- I just shoulda realized this was "variance" and the other machines wouldn't make a difference because of the "long term"! Mercy- how forgetful of me. I guess I am "seriously stupid."

Long-term winning playing negative expectation games. Stop limits. Win limits. Progressions over coming -EV games.

All voodoo nonsence!

I live in the real world, making plays supported by proven mathematics. I am done attempting to get you guys to join me in the real world. Enjoy your alternative, 'twilight zone', fantasy world.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Kewlj Rob DOES NOT change -EV video poker into +EV video poker and never said he did.

What he does say is that he wins even when playing -EV VP and leaves with the money.

People do hit winners playing -EV games. It's how you handle the money after you win it that determines if you'll leave with a profit.

You're going to hate me, but it's a matter of win goals and loss limits.

If you think you have a perpetual edge then go ahead and keep playing. But the rest of us playing -EV games when we quit when ahead can show a profit.

Before I met Rob I called it the grandma system. Grandma played the slots, won enough for a buffet and left the machine.

What's so bad about doing that?

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You always talk about quitting when ahead but you are way behind. What's today, the 6th. Are you already sitting out the month?

Were you to play only once in your life, "quitting while you're ahead" would be great.

But you and most of us gamble regularly, so stopping a winning session means nothing as you'll soon start another one, ad infinitum.

That's the fallacy in the analysis: you're not in the short run, you're in the long run.

"Long run" is nothing more than the theoretical return that you get from the paytable of a video poker machine. It's not real for me or kewlj or MrV or anybody else.

How often do you get a royal flush? Without one even a +EV game is negative, probably by 2-percent.

None of you video poker players have ever had a +EV game unless ahead of time you were assured you'd get a royal exactly on schedule.

Who here has? You're all fooling yourselves

I'm probably the only honest person here admitting I've never had a winning year in a casino. It's the rest of you who live in the fantasy of long term theory.