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I understand your point Mickey but once again Dancer, the Wizard, Grochowski and every video poker book and article I ever read says there is NO difference in the EV.
Since this was supposed to be a bet over the return of playing, and if the EV is the same, why are you objecting to a 100 play/hand game? The EV is the same.
You can also have VARIANCE with one million single line plays.
Correct. With 3/5/10/25/50/100, etc, the higher the number played at the same time, the lower the overall variance. Overall EV stays the same.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Wait hold on there a second.
First of all, the bet was about variance, IIRC, not return. We all know the return is the same (per amount wagered). If the wager was about return, then mickeycrimm would have 100% won the bet, as the EV on a 98% return game is.....drum roll please.....negative!
The variance is different. If we're talking 100 spins of 25c single play vs 25c 100-play, the 100-play has much higher variannce. If we're talking 1 spin of $25 single play vs 1 spin of 25c 100-play, the 100-play has less variance.
Of course you can (or rather, will) have variance over 1 million hands of single play. But there's a big difference between variance existing and being ahead after 1 million hands. It's possible, yes....but far and away, extremely unlikely, if you're playing the same $/spin.
No. Coach said he would win. He expects better value.
This whole thing is ridiculous. We might as keep arguing about the dice in a cup.
This is incorrect.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
The original statements are as follows
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Variance wasn't an issue until I accepted, and proposed playing 100 hands at a time in order to complete one million hands in a reasonable amount of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
It has been asserted, but never established, that I would be a 40-1 underdog to be ahead after one million hands on a 98% 100-hand machine.
I suspect that the odds are longer than 100-1, but it doesn't matter because of course nobody is traveling to Montana for any challenge anyway, and since mickey won't leave Montana, that means he is all bluster.
Same with jbjb. He was an 80% favorite to take $3K from me in an hour with the dice problem. I came to Vegas to play him, but he was too busy.
And that is some AP BS right there.
No RS__. Coach said he would win. He expects better value.
This whole thing is ridiculous. We might as keep arguing about the dice in a cup.
Coach, I dont live in or near Vegas. We'll get to it. Money isn't the motivator, and in fact, if I win, i'll let Alan donate it to a kidney charity.
As for the million hand thing, just a guess, but I think you'd have a better shot one hand at a time.
Please stop with the AP BS. You will never ever have the balls to face me.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
How much you wanna bet on that?
Thanks for the charity offer jbjb.
Why do you go against Dancer, Wizard, Grochowski and the others?
I offered the bet so anyone interested should come to me. Not the other way around.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyPlease stop with the AP BS. You will never ever have the balls to face me.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
How much you wanna bet on that?
About what?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Plane tickets are on sale...or maybe you are closer than I think and I can drive. Where are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
I am in AC until after Labor Day, if you have a hankering for the seashore. I'll give you a swimming lesson.
That Coach would have a better shot one hand at,a time?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbAbout what?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The Coach likes shots one at a time...right in his mouth :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonThat Coach would have a better shot one hand at,a time?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjbAbout what?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
This is incorrect.
The original statements are as follows
Variance wasn't an issue until I accepted, and proposed playing 100 hands at a time in order to complete one million hands in a reasonable amount of time.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
It has been asserted, but never established, that I would be a 40-1 underdog to be ahead after one million hands on a 98% 100-hand machine.
I suspect that the odds are longer than 100-1, but it doesn't matter because of course nobody is traveling to Montana for any challenge anyway, and since mickey won't leave Montana, that means he is all bluster.
Same with jbjb. He was an 80% favorite to take $3K from me in an hour with the dice problem. I came to Vegas to play him, but he was too busy.
And that is some AP BS right there.
Being ahead after 1 million hands is.....guess what, positive variance! Are you guys really trying to say you'd have positive value playing a 98% game to 1 million hands????? LOL
If the bet is actually about the return on the game, then make the bet with me. I'll put up any amount at any odds you want and I will 100% win. Why? Because the value on a 98% game is.....wait for it.... -2% !!
He-Haw. Big-time all-balls meet-me-anytime in LV jbjb had A WEEK to complete the bet with coach, but suddenly he was "too busy for 7 days in a row" to show he wasn't a coward. And now armchair gambler RS__ wants to make a bet with coach??:)
AP BS is right. When any of it even has a chance of leaving their state of mind, they instantly turn Yellow. And it doesn't take long before these Nellie fellows get flushed down....
He's not going against them. Neither am I. We are in complete agreement on the EV of the game. If you ask Dancer, Wizard, Grochowski about the chances of being ahead after a 1 hand sample space (hands being defined as the number of times you hit the deal button) , a 10 hand sample space, a 100 hand sample space, a 1000 hand sample space, a 10,000 hand sample space, a 100,000 hand sample space, or a 1,000,000 hand sample space....then you will get completely different answers for each sample space.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If you don't believe me then put the question up on WoV. I'm not set up to run simulations so can't come up with the exact answers. But I know the concept.
We all know your track record with bets, Mr. bet welsher.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I have to admit I don't understand your position. They've all said the EV doesn't change but now you're saying that variance is more important than EV?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmHe's not going against them. Neither am I. We are in complete agreement on the EV of the game. If you ask Dancer, Wizard, Grochowski about the chances of being ahead after a 1 hand sample space (hands being defined as the number of times you hit the deal button) , a 10 hand sample space, a 100 hand sample space, a 1000 hand sample space, a 10,000 hand sample space, a 100,000 hand sample space, or a 1,000,000 hand sample space....then you will get completely different answers for each sample space.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If you don't believe me then put the question up on WoV. I'm not set up to run simulations so can't come up with the exact answers. But I know the concept.
Well if variance is more important then many of Rob Singer's special plays should be used, especially those that say drop kickers to improve your chances of QUADS in triple double bonus.
Are you offering to take this bet...any amount and any odds...no strings attached?Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm