Objective proof?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

You go on an on about how anyone who bets in a -EV situation is a dumb gambler. Do you have any idea what Monet's chances were of this parlay winning?

---

You are just such a liar. I have said many time on this very forum that I do some sportsbetting as pure entertainment. It is negative expectation and I have the records to prove that I lose right along those lines of expectation. (sometimes more :() The cost of this negative expectation entertainment is a dollar or two per $100 wager. So the cost a month is about what I would pay to go out to say an Applebees and movie. I am fine with that.

AND I have never put anyone who gambles -Ev recreationally down. Just like my little bit of sports betting if someone goes to a casino a couple times a month (or how ever often they want) and plays -Ev and loses....that is fine if that is what they want to do with their money. It is only a problem when....it becomes a problem.

I mean do you realize that AP's couldn't exist if it weren't for many more players (like you) that lose.

I just think if players are going to go to a casino and play for fun (recreationally) and there are a couple little AP type things they can do to win a little or even lose less, maybe they should consider that.

But no matter how you slice it, my issue with you Singer, and this Mdog who is using your exact playbook is not jealousy. It is that your claims are bullshit. I hold the two of you no different than all Christopher Mitchell and the blackjack army guy and all the other you tube scammer. The fact that you are not selling anything makes absolutely no difference. You are peddling bullshit information.

What are the odds of my parlay hitting?
The payout amount of a parlay can grow exponentially especially when large underdogs are included in the wager.
How do you calculate a parlay?

Parlay Odds Paid / True Odds

6 team parlay bet 45-1 / 63-1
7 team parlay bet 90-1 / 127-1
8 team parlay bet 180-1 / 255-1
9 team parlay bet 360-1 / 511-1

I LOVE this sentence...
The payout amount of a parlay can grow exponentially especially when large underdogs are included in the wager.

Ouch maybe my 15% figure is wrong... more like 25%?
Cut Cut Cut!
Reminds me of Bingo.
That is, of course, unless you were with me playing Bingo at the Plaza in 2014.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

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Originally Posted by dannyj

Fucking A Monet!!!

I was most worried about the Flames PL going in and I didn't add the baseball, but still a damn nice four teamer in NHL for me.
Thanks again fucker! You the man.

---

Here at Integrity Sports Picking Service we not only publish our picks for free but we also put our money where are mouth is.
So when you lose money we usually lose more!

I slept during the first three games but watched the last 3.
Did you see how crazy that Flames Empty Netter was lol and the Blues got the miracle lay up with 11 seconds to go.
I'm glad you and I got to connect on beating the book for a change.
Truth be told, I was going to bet 3k on the parlay but my pussy started to act up on me.
And if I really had any balls I would of put Carolina and the Rangers Puck Line on it as well.
I don't want to get into how much I am up for the last week and a half since the NHL Puck Line has done nothing but cover.
It all started for me with the Wild coming back over LA as they were down 3-0 early in the first and came back to win 6-3.
And I got on the Dodgers Run Line gravy train cashing 7 out of 8 winners.
I don't really value money so I am never happy.
Win a Million and I'm all pissed off I'm not up 4 Million.
I had to go back and recheck.
That was on the 10th so it has been 11 days of winning out of 12.
Avalanche Screwed Me against the Kraken.
Expect today to make it 12.
Not entirely true... I lost my ass on Spin Poker... losing 3000 an hour is BullShit!
But they kept giving me 500 dollar Free Play so how the Fuck could I quit?
Nobody likes a quitter!

All my Secret Squirrel stuff doesn't count though.
All that matters is what I post on this site before game time with ample time for everyone to get to the book.
Unlike Dan Druff posting picks with 10 minutes before the first pitch... MotherFucker!

---

I didn't watch the last two games. I got an update on the Flames game when they were tied 2-2 with like 8 minutes to go. Figured the parlay would just go down in flames (pun intended).
SJS are kinda dicey at times but I'm surprised the Blues didn't have an easier time covering the PL.
Anyhow, woke up to a nice surprise and promptly kicked myself for not getting greedy with baseball plays.

Thanks again bud.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

You go on an on about how anyone who bets in a -EV situation is a dumb gambler. Do you have any idea what Monet's chances were of this parlay winning?

---

You are just such a liar. I have said many time on this very forum that I do some sportsbetting as pure entertainment. It is negative expectation and I have the records to prove that I lose right along those lines of expectation. (sometimes more :() The cost of this negative expectation entertainment is a dollar or two per $100 wager. So the cost a month is about what I would pay to go out to say an Applebees and movie. I am fine with that.

AND I have never put anyone who gambles -Ev recreationally down. Just like my little bit of sports betting if someone goes to a casino a couple times a month (or how ever often they want) and plays -Ev and loses....that is fine if that is what they want to do with their money. It is only a problem when....it becomes a problem.

I mean do you realize that AP's couldn't exist if it weren't for many more players (like you) that lose.

I just think if players are going to go to a casino and play for fun (recreationally) and there are a couple little AP type things they can do to win a little or even lose less, maybe they should consider that.

But no matter how you slice it, my issue with you Singer, and this Mdog who is using your exact playbook is not jealousy. It is that your claims are bullshit. I hold the two of you no different than all Christopher Mitchell and the blackjack army guy and all the other you tube scammer. The fact that you are not selling anything makes absolutely no difference. You are peddling bullshit information.

---

I think the language being used here is not quite right. In sports and horse racing, you can't just announce that something is negative EV for a particular individual. That's because these are not purely mathematically constrained systems with the same expertise being brought to bear by each individual. Sports and horses are games of OPINION, not pure math.

Assuming monet brings some hockey expertise to the table (and he certainly seems to know what he's doing), simple application of math odds is inappropriate. Monet may be positive EV in hockey regardless of whether he's betting parlays or straight bets.

Now having said that, betting parlays is inferior to straight betting in the long term because you are very rarely getting optimal odds for each game in the parlay. If I were coaching monet, I would have recommended betting each game straight as opposed to parlay betting, unless there were some promo or reason to bet every game at one place at one point in time.

The most important point is that when dealing with sports or race betting, simple math analysis doesn't cover the reality. Opinions matter.

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

The odds and payoffs shown by Monet show the six teamer to be 14% house edge, while the 7, 8 and 9 teamers show 30% house edges.

Hell, Singer is within .5% of the house with what he does.

Maybe loading up the card with dogs changes the math a little, I'm not really sure. Redietz would know. But I've been under the assumption by reading the Wizard's parlay strategy that the books won't allow you to load up on all dogs.

More power to Monet for hitting the parlays but my big question is why is redietz giving you parlay bettors a pass in this thread?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

You know what Belly, one of the things I stumbled on today involved you. Someone named Lonestar really had you pegged. And in a thread discussing your trolling Dan Druff confirmed that on some other forum, you had as many as 10 different handles that you used (sockpuppets) and were the sole reason that forum shut down.

I mean who does this crap? I knew you were nuts and a troll, but didn't realize you were "tasha" type crazy. I am not even going to put you back on ignore. Just not going to bother with you. You are a crazy fuck!

---

Coach Belly got a forum shut down? I think I should of heard of this if it happened. Its the first I've heard of it. Whats the name of the forum?

Oh, hold on! Is this just more of KJ making up shit?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

The odds and payoffs shown by Monet show the six teamer to be 14% house edge, while the 7, 8 and 9 teamers show 30% house edges.

Hell, Singer is within .5% of the house with what he does.

Maybe loading up the card with dogs changes the math a little, I'm not really sure. Redietz would know. But I've been under the assumption by reading the Wizard's parlay strategy that the books won't allow you to load up on all dogs.

More power to Monet for hitting the parlays but my big question is why is redietz giving you parlay bettors a pass in this thread?

---

I certainly do not want to get into an argument with you over this but I have stated the mathematical facts about parlay betting multiple times over the last year.
This is not as simple as you think that Parlay Betting is Negative EV no matter what.
You say that Parlay Betting is Negative EV and no human alive can beat Parlays?
Ok... I'll submit to that statement.
It really doesn't matter to me.
I'll let my pre game posted picks do the talking.
Subscription Fees soon to be implemented.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by redietz

I think the language being used here is not quite right. In sports and horse racing, you can't just announce that something is negative EV for a particular individual. That's because these are not purely mathematically constrained systems with the same expertise being brought to bear by each individual. Sports and horses are games of OPINION, not pure math.

Assuming monet brings some hockey expertise to the table (and he certainly seems to know what he's doing), simple application of math odds is inappropriate. Monet may be positive EV in hockey regardless of whether he's betting parlays or straight bets.

Now having said that, betting parlays is inferior to straight betting in the long term because you are very rarely getting optimal odds for each game in the parlay. If I were coaching monet, I would have recommended betting each game straight as opposed to parlay betting, unless there were some promo or reason to bet every game at one place at one point in time.

The most important point is that when dealing with sports or race betting, simple math analysis doesn't cover the reality. Opinions matter.

---

I don't like this post.
It's too educated and well written.
Stop that shit.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by redietz

I didn't realize until these last few posts from mickey and Alan that I was the resident Argentino expert. Who knew? I've probably read more of his material than anyone here. And I certainly have more experience in Las Vegas during the time he was writing for Gaming Today than anyone here. Since his column often made the front page of GT, and everybody in race and sports books read GT, pretty much everyone had an opinion on him.

I was there a hundred days a year while he was writing for GT (pre-internet, really). I hadn't actually framed things that way before. Until that last book was published ("We Were Wise Guys and Didn't Know It"), I probably knew as much about the folks who gave Argentino his LV break than anyone on these forums.

Huh. So I guess if anyone has a sense of his story over time and the likelihood that he was "covering up the bug" by writing for GT, it's probably me. I'm likely the best qualified to have an opinion. I read his columns in real time and interacted with the people he was interacting with at the time. In fact, as I was cleaning out the garage last week, I stumbled on a couple of GT's with his column.

LOL. Now the big question. Is anyone interested in my opinion? And does anyone want to read some of the old columns to see if those columns suggest a man covering up the double up bug?

---

I didn't realize you were the resident Argentino expert.

So you've read him on this forum going way back. And you read him in Gaming Today going way back. What a coinicidence! SO HAVE I!

And you had more experience is Las Vegas when Rob was writing for Gaming Today? Well, maybe you did....because I was working Laughlin, Las Vegas, Reno and Tahoe at the time. I ran that route from 96 to 2007, with a few trips out of state here and there.

Of course, Gaming Today was in all those Nevada towns. I read it religiously, picked it up every Tuesday when it came out. I read Rob's column's but the casino business news was my main reason for picking it up. I found plays and and stayed on top of casino openings thru that rag. Casino openings used to be a thing. You never knew what you would find.

Now, redietz:

Did you follow Rob Singer in the Videopokerforums?
Did you follow Rob Singer on vpFREE?
Did you follow Rob Singer on freeVPfree?
Did you follow Rob Singer on Las Vegas Adviser Sports Forum?
Did you follow Rob Singer on Wizard of Vegas?

I followed him in all the above forums. He made multi-thousands of posts. A hell of a lot more posts combined than he has made on VCT. I think the first time we conversed was freeVPfree in 2005. But I read his posts going back to 2002. Our feud lasted from 2005 until a couple years ago.

Are you sure you're the resident expert here on Argentino?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

---

I "bragged" about hitting a hockey parlay? When the fuck did that happen?

I have stated dozens of times how that the small amount of low limit sports betting that I do is -EV. How can I say it any clearer?

I don't often mention what I bet or won or lost. Once in a while if there is already a discussion about football or March madness, otherwise I don't bring it up.

In this case I wanted to congratulate monet, so mentioned that I tagged along on a portion of his picks as I have done for a while now, at small stakes. So where is this bragging, mickeycrimm?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

The odds and payoffs shown by Monet show the six teamer to be 14% house edge, while the 7, 8 and 9 teamers show 30% house edges.

Hell, Singer is within .5% of the house with what he does.

Maybe loading up the card with dogs changes the math a little, I'm not really sure. Redietz would know. But I've been under the assumption by reading the Wizard's parlay strategy that the books won't allow you to load up on all dogs.

More power to Monet for hitting the parlays but my big question is why is redietz giving you parlay bettors a pass in this thread?

---

I certainly do not want to get into an argument with you over this but I have stated the mathematical facts about parlay betting multiple times over the last year.
This is not as simple as you think that Parlay Betting is Negative EV no matter what.
You say that Parlay Betting is Negative EV and no human alive can beat Parlays?
Ok... I'll submit to that statement.
It really doesn't matter to me.
I'll let my pre game posted picks do the talking.
Subscription Fees soon to be implemented.

---

You say....that I said....that parlay betting is negative EV and no human alive can beat it. Funny, I don't recall saying any such thing. I don't think I said it.

Redietz, could you please put up a link to where I said it?

Oh, and redietz. Can you give some examples of parlays you can successfully bet that ostensibly show house edges around 30%?

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

You say....that I said....that parlay betting is negative EV and no human alive can beat it. Funny, I don't recall saying any such thing. I don't think I said it.

---

What the hell are you talking about? Where did I ever say no human alive can beat sports betting? Of course some can! When I talk sports betting, I am only talking about my own experiences. I CAN'T BEAT SPORTS BETTING LONG-TERM.

As for monet, he said just today that anyone who can consistently win 55% can do well with parlays. Well hell, anyone that can it 55% of puck line (or run line wagers) which many times are +120, +130 to begin with, would do quite well betting straight up as well as parlays.

I can't hit 55%. I can't hit 50% on my own. But if Monet can, and I have no idea if he can long-term, but he has been for most of this season since I have followed, so I have tagged along, betting many of his picks straight (puckline) and a few parlays, when he seems to particularly like a couple teams.

I don't know why you are making more of this that that. You seem to have gone full blown KJ hater now, like Singer and Mdog, I guess in an attempt to support this strange relationship you now have with Singer. Just chill the fuck out Crimm. I have never said anything negative about you.

Hey Monet if the subscription biz pays off let's do an Infomercial!

(Still waiting to see who else congratulates you.)

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by redietz

I didn't realize until these last few posts from mickey and Alan that I was the resident Argentino expert. Who knew? I've probably read more of his material than anyone here. And I certainly have more experience in Las Vegas during the time he was writing for Gaming Today than anyone here. Since his column often made the front page of GT, and everybody in race and sports books read GT, pretty much everyone had an opinion on him.

I was there a hundred days a year while he was writing for GT (pre-internet, really). I hadn't actually framed things that way before. Until that last book was published ("We Were Wise Guys and Didn't Know It"), I probably knew as much about the folks who gave Argentino his LV break than anyone on these forums.

Huh. So I guess if anyone has a sense of his story over time and the likelihood that he was "covering up the bug" by writing for GT, it's probably me. I'm likely the best qualified to have an opinion. I read his columns in real time and interacted with the people he was interacting with at the time. In fact, as I was cleaning out the garage last week, I stumbled on a couple of GT's with his column.

LOL. Now the big question. Is anyone interested in my opinion? And does anyone want to read some of the old columns to see if those columns suggest a man covering up the double up bug?

---

I didn't realize you were the resident Argentino expert.

So you've read him on this forum going way back. And you read him in Gaming Today going way back. What a coinicidence! SO HAVE I!

And you had more experience is Las Vegas when Rob was writing for Gaming Today? Well, maybe you did....because I was working Laughlin, Las Vegas, Reno and Tahoe at the time. I ran that route from 96 to 2007, with a few trips out of state here and there.

Of course, Gaming Today was in all those Nevada towns. I read it religiously, picked it up every Tuesday when it came out. I read Rob's column's but the casino business news was my main reason for picking it up. I found plays and and stayed on top of casino openings thru that rag. Casino openings used to be a thing. You never knew what you would find.

Now, redietz:

Did you follow Rob Singer in the Videopokerforums?
Did you follow Rob Singer on vpFREE?
Did you follow Rob Singer on freeVPfree?
Did you follow Rob Singer on Las Vegas Adviser Sports Forum?
Did you follow Rob Singer on Wizard of Vegas?

I followed him in all the above forums. He made multi-thousands of posts. A hell of a lot more posts combined than he has made on VCT. I think the first time we conversed was freeVPfree in 2005. But I read his posts going back to 2002. Our feud lasted from 2005 until a couple years ago.

Are you sure you're the resident expert here on Argentino?

---

I would say the hobo is the resident Singer expert. Right down to verifying the whole 9.5"...........RIP

We should award him a #1 Singer Knob Gobbler badge to recognize his accomplishment.

Dan can you get on that stat?

Bbbwwwahhhhhhhhhhhhhh cats are comin over the top makin the claim strong, now, baby with talks of millions dollar rv+ 18 y-0 on the bounce at dices table gotta wonder what's next? Good thing I stock up on the Guiness and cashew, hey hey!

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Silence is golden. Redietz is giving these parlay bettors a pass. KJ says you can't beat negative video poker, but then he turns around and brags about beating negative hockey parlay cards.

The odds and payoffs shown by Monet show the six teamer to be 14% house edge, while the 7, 8 and 9 teamers show 30% house edges.

Hell, Singer is within .5% of the house with what he does.

Maybe loading up the card with dogs changes the math a little, I'm not really sure. Redietz would know. But I've been under the assumption by reading the Wizard's parlay strategy that the books won't allow you to load up on all dogs.

More power to Monet for hitting the parlays but my big question is why is redietz giving you parlay bettors a pass in this thread?

---

Well for the six teamer I'm getting a figure similar to the 7,8, and 9 teamers Mickey - about 30% for this one also: (28.6%). 100*(45/63)=71.4%. 100%-71.4% gives 28.6% for the six teamer book edge. I'm not a sports book bettor so maybe I'm missing something and I apologize in advance if my six teamer figure is off. Monet, due to your prowess, you may need to have your wife,friends and relatives start getting your action in at the books, since if they identify you as a sharp you will have trouble getting your bets down for significant money I would think. You're on the front line so you would know best, but just throwing that out there as an armchair quarterback.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tableplay

Well for the six teamer I'm getting a figure similar to the 7,8, and 9 teamers Mickey - about 30% for this one also: (28.6%). 100*(45/63)=71.4%. 100%-71.4% gives 28.6% for the six teamer book edge. I'm not a sports book bettor so maybe I'm missing something and I apologize in advance if my six teamer figure is off. Monet, due to your prowess, you may need to have your wife,friends and relatives start getting your action in at the books, since if they identify you as a sharp you will have trouble getting your bets down for significant money I would think. You're on the front line so you would know best, but just throwing that out there as an armchair quarterback.

---

No worries.
I'm not a sharpie.
26 years ago I got barred from BJ in a few Casinos.
Shit Happens.
If they tell me that I can't bet Sports in the whole city, I'll just do something else.
These days you don't even have to be sharp at anything.
If you win a bunch of dough they get scarred and refuse your action.
I seen it happen with a guy just firing at BJ a few years back.
They told him to take his quarter of a million and have a nice day... they just flat out refused any further action of his even though he was playing God Awful.
I think the same thing happened to Dana White and he was just firing.
Happened to Ben Affleck but I suspect he was actually counting.
I'm sure you know all this.

Like I said before.
When my pal was beating the Golden Nugget at dice for 400k they had 3 suits watching him for hours lol.
Who knows how many others were watching him away from the action.
14 some odd hours playing drunken dice.
Shit was fun to sweat but I didn't want him to blame me if he lost it all back so I only checked in on him every 3 to 4 hours.
He has been known to call me the Dark Cloud and I kind of hate that shit lol.
Because if that was true I would only need to show up and have you bet the other way at the other end of the table and we would own this town.

Anyways, what many of you don't understand (Ozzy Excluded) is that the NHL is a different animal compared to any other sport.
Injuries are a major factor and how many lines can a team realistically roll.
Sometimes you have 4 strong lines vs only 1 on the opposing team.
Take Phoenix for instance just about 12 days ago.
They got all banged up and were starting College Kids lol.
It was basically a Pro Team vs a High School Team.
Needless to say the Coyotes were suffering losses like 9-0, 7-2, 6-1... etc. etc.
But what the Fuck do I know?
I'm just gambling.
I leave the Advantage Play to your real professionals.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by monet

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tableplay

Well for the six teamer I'm getting a figure similar to the 7,8, and 9 teamers Mickey - about 30% for this one also: (28.6%). 100*(45/63)=71.4%. 100%-71.4% gives 28.6% for the six teamer book edge. I'm not a sports book bettor so maybe I'm missing something and I apologize in advance if my six teamer figure is off. Monet, due to your prowess, you may need to have your wife,friends and relatives start getting your action in at the books, since if they identify you as a sharp you will have trouble getting your bets down for significant money I would think. You're on the front line so you would know best, but just throwing that out there as an armchair quarterback.

---

No worries.
I'm not a sharpie.
26 years ago I got barred from BJ in a few Casinos.
Shit Happens.
If they tell me that I can't bet Sports in the whole city, I'll just do something else.
These days you don't even have to be sharp at anything.
If you win a bunch of dough they get scarred and refuse your action.
I seen it happen with a guy just firing at BJ a few years back.
They told him to take his quarter of a million and have a nice day... they just flat out refused any further action of his even though he was playing God Awful.
I think the same thing happened to Dana White and he was just firing.
Happened to Ben Affleck but I suspect he was actually counting.
I'm sure you know all this.

Like I said before.
When my pal was beating the Golden Nugget at dice for 400k they had 3 suits watching him for hours lol.
Who knows how many others were watching him away from the action.

Anyways, what many of you don't understand (Ozzy Excluded) is that the NHL is a different animal compared to any other sport.
Injuries are a major factor and how many lines can a team realistically roll.
Sometimes you have 4 strong lines vs only 1 on the opposing team.
Take Phoenix for instance just about 12 days ago.
They got all banged up and were starting College Kids lol.
It was basically a Pro Team vs a High School Team.
Needless to say the Coyotes were suffering losses like 9-0, 7-2, 6-1... etc. etc.
But what the Fuck do I know?
I'm just gambling.
I leave the Advantage Play to your real professionals.

---

Yes that's right - they just stop taking action from big winners a lot of the time. Imagine a vulture on a $200 per spin scarab slot with scarabs full on spin 8. On spin 9 he catches a bonus round (3 scatter symbols but we could pipe dream and say he caught 4 or 5 scatter symbols if we wanted) and gets a massive hand pay for $25K when the bonus round completes. Then, on spin 10 he cashes the scarabs full for another unholy amount of money. "Sir, you're game's just too strong for us and we're going to have to ask you to leave after you get paid".

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by tableplay

Yes that's right - they just stop taking action from big winners a lot of the time. Imagine a vulture on a $200 per spin scarab slot with scarabs full on spin 8. On spin 9 he catches a bonus round (3 scatter symbols but we could pipe dream and say he caught 4 or 5 scatter symbols if we wanted) and gets a massive hand pay for $25K when the bonus round completes. Then, on spin 10 he cashes the scarabs full for another unholy amount of money. "Sir, you're game's just too strong for us and we're going to have to ask you to leave after you get paid".

---

Let us not forget that the 6 teamer that I bet swelled up to 110 to 1 payout odds.
Probably doesn't mean anything.
Just Saying.