Professional Sportsbetting

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Is that from hits? I'm having a hard time finding just total bases.

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see link - it shows bet365 and DraftKings offering this prop - DraftKings is unavailable right at this moment - they say they are changing the odds

Total Bases is different from hits but no difference if the line is 0.5 - if the line was 1.5 the over would win if the player had just one hit that was a double - but over on the hits at 1.5 would lose with just one hit which was a double


https://www.covers.com/sport/basebal...5/kyle-stowers

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It comes up as total bases from hits. I don't bet or watch(never) much baseball, very little BB knowledge beyond baseball cards.

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yes, it's Total Bases from hits - meaning they don't include walks - a single is one Total Base - a double is 2 Total Bases - a Triple is 3 and a Homer is 4

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also, this site is much better for finding the odds - click under the right side where it says "Pick" by which pick you are looking at

it then gives you the current odds at 6 or more different books


https://www.bettingpros.com/mlb/picks/prop-bets/

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won pick above

today - Mike Conley - over 13.5 points, rebounds and assists - even money_______________Minnesota vs. OKC

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Game 1 of the Guardians/Twins series was suspended in the 4th last night. Resumption is scheduled for 6:10 (Eastern) tonight.

I'm arbed on the first half (5 innings) total at BetMGM and Circa.

BetMGM rules: "If a game has been suspended after the game has started, due to a weather delay or other deferral, and resumes within 36 hours after the original start time, all wagers will stand."

So that means I'm good if the outcome resolves today. But with more rain in the forecast, resumption could push out to Wednesday in which case I'll be cancelled.

Circa rules: "If a [suspended] game is completed within 5 days of its start, all wagering options that encompass a full game ... will have action and carry over ...."

I assume this applies to me, although my wager does not encompass a full game.

I'll plan to look in near the scheduled time to see if the bet remains open.

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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won pick above

today - Mike Conley - over 13.5 points, rebounds and assists - even money_______________Minnesota vs. OKC

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Are you sure you don't want to add some complicated riddles to relay these picks?

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Game 1 of the Guardians/Twins series was suspended in the 4th last night. Resumption is scheduled for 6:10 (Eastern) tonight.

I'm arbed on the first half (5 innings) total at BetMGM and Circa.

BetMGM rules: "If a game has been suspended after the game has started, due to a weather delay or other deferral, and resumes within 36 hours after the original start time, all wagers will stand."

So that means I'm good if the outcome resolves today. But with more rain in the forecast, resumption could push out to Wednesday in which case I'll be cancelled.

Circa rules: "If a [suspended] game is completed within 5 days of its start, all wagering options that encompass a full game ... will have action and carry over ...."

I assume this applies to me, although my wager does not encompass a full game.

I'll plan to look in near the scheduled time to see if the bet remains open.

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I hate when rule applications do not match up, which is why baseball arbitrage is not on my list of fave-to-dos. I am aware that rules/regs vary wildly and some places decide to change the standard rules (TopBet.eu comes to mind, all baseball bets action) and impose their own. One of my old partners who specialized in tennis was tortured by a classic difference in rules application for a tennis match that had a "retirement." He had the match arbitraged, but wound up with a loss. That kind of thing is beyond my pay grade and beyond my frustration tolerance levels. I hate squinting at fine print every time I make a play like that, because sports books can change the fine print daily if they want, and being aware is on our shoulders.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I hate when rule applications do not match up, which is why baseball arbitrage is not on my list of fave-to-dos. I am aware that rules/regs vary wildly and some places decide to change the standard rules (TopBet.eu comes to mind, all baseball bets action) and impose their own. One of my old partners who specialized in tennis was tortured by a classic difference in rules application for a tennis match that had a "retirement." He had the match arbitraged, but wound up with a loss.

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Yes, I can recall having at least one tennis arb that mutated into a push (cancellation) and a loss.

For my purposes, I typically want all my baseball bets specified as "action" (meaning the bet stands regardless of who pitches). Afaik, "action" is locked in on most of the regulated sports apps. Circa optionally allows listed selections on money line bets.

I understand the offshores may orient differently. To my frustration, BetOnline/LowVig defaults to listed-listed, with an option to select "action" on money line bets. I don't know how it goes at the B&M sportsbooks, as I only bet from home.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Game 1 of the Guardians/Twins series was suspended in the 4th last night. Resumption is scheduled for 6:10 (Eastern) tonight.

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And today is a washout. Game 1 will try again Wednesday, then they'll play game 3. Game 2 is postponed to September.

I'm hoping for more rain, otherwise I'm stuck with a busted arb. Is that a thing?

Also I discovered some of my Circa bets are listed-listed when I thought they were action :(. I got faked out because the summary display of pending bets doesn't include that level of detail. You have to click through, and I'm not into that.

That's going to be a problem.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

I hate when rule applications do not match up, which is why baseball arbitrage is not on my list of fave-to-dos. I am aware that rules/regs vary wildly and some places decide to change the standard rules (TopBet.eu comes to mind, all baseball bets action) and impose their own. One of my old partners who specialized in tennis was tortured by a classic difference in rules application for a tennis match that had a "retirement." He had the match arbitraged, but wound up with a loss.

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Yes, I can recall having at least one tennis arb that mutated into a push (cancellation) and a loss.

For my purposes, I typically want all my baseball bets specified as "action" (meaning the bet stands regardless of who pitches). Afaik, "action" is locked in on most of the regulated sports apps. Circa optionally allows listed selections on money line bets.

I understand the offshores may orient differently. To my frustration, BetOnline/LowVig defaults to listed-listed, with an option to select "action" on money line bets. I don't know how it goes at the B&M sportsbooks, as I only bet from home.

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I understand why sports books want "action" as default, but really, if you're betting significant money, who wants to draw a matchup out of a hat? I can see the argument either way, I guess. You don't get to specify specific matchups for starting quarterbacks, so why for starting pitchers? I get it, but I also get why books want to inject randomness as something everyone should tolerate with a smile and a crossing of one's fingers.

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lost above pick


tonight - Jalen Brunson Under 36.5 points and assists___-110_______________Pacers vs. Knicks


the Knicks have a shot at winning it all - they haven't won a Championship in 52 years since 1973

if it happens they'll be dancing in the street in the Apple

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Originally Posted by redietz

I understand why sports books want "action" as default, but really, if you're betting significant money, who wants to draw a matchup out of a hat?

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That's over my head and out of my realm, but I see your logic.

It surprises me that when the books offer a choice, they don't vary the odds. For example, here's BetOnline:



I have four menu selections to choose from, all paying at the same +114 odds. That seems exploitable for someone with appropriate analytical skills, which I wouldn't personally know about.

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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lost above pick


tonight - Jalen Brunson Under 36.5 points and assists___-110_______________Pacers vs. Knicks


the Knicks have a shot at winning it all - they haven't won a Championship in 52 years since 1973

if it happens they'll be dancing in the street in the Apple

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Damn, I be old. I remember that last Knicks title and all those players. I actually remember the previous year more clearly, when Lucas came out bombing from long range with Chamberlain on him, the Knicks somehow won the first game, then got smashed four straight.

Hard to believe the Mecca of hoops hasn't had a title since.

People sometimes ask me why I bet so little on baseball. I tell them when you think about it, you gotta be off your rocker to bet baseball. The entirety of the scoring could be riding on a single pitch, 1 out of 200. The stadiums are all different shapes and sizes, and change shapes and sizes year-to-year. Move the fences in; move them out; use a cutout down the right field line, and so on. No other sport has fields of varying sizes (once upon a time, hockey did, and high school/college hoops, but not now). Plus you're dealing with a "window" sport which hogs a bigger chunk.

I feel insane to put any money on this sport at all.

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Originally Posted by redietz

I feel insane to put any money on this sport at all.

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This year I've bet much more on college baseball than MLB.

Still confused though about "action."

These examples are all from Circa.

Here's an MLB total:



Two specific pitchers are "listed," so I assume the bet goes void if either pitcher fails to start. At BetOnline, the pitcher names would be clearly notated "must start."

Now let's do college. This one looks straightforward:



But then there's this:



What's that supposed to mean? You can't "list" a pitcher without the pitcher's name.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

It surprises me that when the books offer a choice, they don't vary the odds.

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Correction. There's a rule for that:



If you bet "action," and the pitchers don't go as scheduled, Circa can adjust your price.

That's awkward.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

I feel insane to put any money on this sport at all.

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This year I've bet much more on college baseball than MLB.

Still confused though about "action."

These examples are all from Circa.

Here's an MLB total:



Two specific pitchers are "listed," so I assume the bet goes void if either pitcher fails to start. At BetOnline, the pitcher names would be clearly notated "must start."

Now let's do college. This one looks straightforward:



But then there's this:



What's that supposed to mean? You can't "list" a pitcher without the pitcher's name.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

It surprises me that when the books offer a choice, they don't vary the odds.

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Correction. There's a rule for that:



If you bet "action," and the pitchers don't go as scheduled, Circa can adjust your price.

That's awkward.

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Circa can "adjust the price?" Wow.

Reminds me a little of exploratory surgery. You don't have much say in what gets found or what they do when they find it. At least with the surgery, they treat you as if you're unconscious because you are. Circa treats you as if you're unconscious because they say you are.

I wonder what precipitated this. Circa superficially seems like such a player-friendly environment. I know nothing, however, as I've only bet a couple of futures there, and nothing over $1500. I hang out there a bit whenever I'm in town, I did get a nice tour of the place, and kudos on the roof. But "adjusting the price" is bizarro. Like betting thoroughbreds.

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Originally Posted by redietz

But "adjusting the price" is bizarro.

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I guess I need to read through the rules of my sportsbooks. This article mentions the risk:

https://about.darkhorseodds.com/guid...cher-vs-action

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Placing an “Action” bet means that your bet will stand no matter which pitcher starts the game. Some sportsbooks might change the odds of your bet if there is a change from the originally listed pitcher. This is unlike other sports, where the odds are locked in at the time of placing your bet.

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FanDuel is mentioned as a book that commits to the odds as wagered. I verified it here:

https://www.fanduel.com/fanduel-spor...house-rules-az

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Action: All Money Line wagers are defaulted to “Action” meaning all wagers struck will stand if a pitcher change occurs. Wagers will be honored at the odds at bet placement and settled as normal.

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That's from Arizona. We don't have FanDuel in Nevada, but Boyd's sports app is powered by FanDuel.

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

I understand why sports books want "action" as default, but really, if you're betting significant money, who wants to draw a matchup out of a hat?

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That's over my head and out of my realm, but I see your logic.

It surprises me that when the books offer a choice, they don't vary the odds. For example, here's BetOnline:



I have four menu selections to choose from, all paying at the same +114 odds. That seems exploitable for someone with appropriate analytical skills, which I wouldn't personally know about.

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I will respond despite the trolling likely to follow, because I had a very similar problem on Monday at an offshore book.

In the morning when I made my picks, I placed two wagers on the Dodgers. One on the money line @ -140, the second on the run line at -1.5. The starting pitchers listed were Pfaadt for Arizona, and Landon Knack for the Dodgers. Later in the day I placed an additional wager on the over 10 as the wind was blowing straight out to Ceneter field. When I placed the later wager, I failed to notice the change in Dodger pitcher.

As I watched the game, I saw that Landon Knack was not starting. The Dodgers, at some point during the day had decided to use an "Opening pitcher" Jack Dryer for the first two innings and Brandon Knack came in to pitch the third inning on. So I knew my original two bets on the Dodgers would be no action and money returned according to this books rules. The over wager should remain valid.

So the Dodgers fell behind big early and went on to lose 9-5.

In checking the results of my 3 wagers, the over was graded as a win and paid as it should have been. The run line bet, was graded as a no wager or a push and money returned as it should have been. But the money line wager, which was the bigger of the two wagers on the Dodgers, was graded as a loss, when it should have also been a no wager or push.

So I fired off an email and the first response received the next day, simply said Dodgers lost 9-5. (without addressing the change in pitcher that should have negated the wager). Next I called, and despite explaining everything, got nowhere. The guy said there are different rules for different wagers. I guess meaning a change in pitchers negates the wager on the run line but not the money line, which is NOT what their own rules say, nor even makes any sense. I was getting nowhere with him.

I fired off one more email explaining in as much detail as I could and quoting their own rules, hoping someone with some brains would receive it. I received a response that said "Your objection has been noted" But nothing has been adjusted. :(

I resisted getting into the off-shore sports betting racket for these very concerns. My top worry was a sports book deciding to not honor the bonuses after the fact, which has happened. And my second worry was this exact situation, a sports book changing the rules or not honoring their own rules and having nowhere to dispute it.

Same concerns I have with playing Indian B & M casinos. They can do as they please and you have no recourse.

And with the sports book betting, playing on such slim margin, it only takes getting screwed a couple times and you have wiped away the margins.

YESSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!

ALLAH AHKBAR

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

I guess I need to read through the rules of my sportsbooks. This article mentions the risk:

https://about.darkhorseodds.com/guid...cher-vs-action



FanDuel is mentioned as a book that commits to the odds as wagered. I verified it here:

https://www.fanduel.com/fanduel-spor...house-rules-az

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Action: All Money Line wagers are defaulted to “Action” meaning all wagers struck will stand if a pitcher change occurs. Wagers will be honored at the odds at bet placement and settled as normal.

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That's from Arizona. We don't have FanDuel in Nevada, but Boyd's sports app is powered by FanDuel.

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It is truly sad that we have reached a point where a brick-and-mortar US sports book pats itself on the back for honoring "odds as wagered."

I am stunned that Circa would default to its position. My only theory is that they were tattooed recently by people who were able to get pitching changes in advance of what Circa could access. While I do know some folks who designed programs that can beat normal-speed online wagers to the punch, I always felt for my sport (college football) these programs were helpful but not huge difference-makers. When I see baseball, however, I understand a little of the fixation with processing speed. Echoes of the pandemic-era who-has-Covid personnel reporting for college football and the last-second "load management" decisions for the NBA. This is a way for Circa to neutralize all those announcements by, let's call it, backfitting numbers when other people beat them to the informational punch.