Professional Sportsbetting

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Unabated is pretty cool. I subscribed briefly at one point.

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Yes, I like it. But I don't subscribe to any of them. So that means I have various limitations and delays.

I might get myself into trouble if I had perfect, real-time information because the sportsbooks don't like when you insta-attack their line moves. The stuff I bet has usually been sitting a few minutes at least, which I hope gives me some "cover" to look somewhat recreational.

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Interesting. That makes sense. Books could do reports on how quickly people bet lines that move to have a lot of closing value.. I'm not sure what the logic would be but a good way to discern a certain type of sharp betting from the pool to eliminate them.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Unabated is pretty cool. I subscribed briefly at one point.

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Yes, I like it. But I don't subscribe to any of them. So that means I have various limitations and delays.

I might get myself into trouble if I had perfect, real-time information because the sportsbooks don't like when you insta-attack their line moves. The stuff I bet has usually been sitting a few minutes at least, which I hope gives me some "cover" to look somewhat recreational.

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Interesting. That makes sense. Books could do reports on how quickly people bet lines that move to have a lot of closing value.. I'm not sure what the logic would be but a good way to discern a certain type of sharp betting from the pool to eliminate them.

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LOL. Also be sure to occasionally glimpse your cards when playing poker. And best to not roll dice by putting them in your mouth and spitting them out.

dupe post

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

Yes, I like it. But I don't subscribe to any of them. So that means I have various limitations and delays.

I might get myself into trouble if I had perfect, real-time information because the sportsbooks don't like when you insta-attack their line moves. The stuff I bet has usually been sitting a few minutes at least, which I hope gives me some "cover" to look somewhat recreational.

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Interesting. That makes sense. Books could do reports on how quickly people bet lines that move to have a lot of closing value.. I'm not sure what the logic would be but a good way to discern a certain type of sharp betting from the pool to eliminate them.

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LOL. Also be sure to occasionally glimpse your cards when playing poker. And best to not roll dice by putting them in your mouth and spitting them out.

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get on the podcast or stfu finally. jesus. you fucking clown.

You've literally been beat down to Singer's level which is one level above Kewl as far as credibility. Now DEAL with it. Or do you no longer have the mental faculties to understand this?

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

Interesting. That makes sense. Books could do reports on how quickly people bet lines that move to have a lot of closing value.. I'm not sure what the logic would be but a good way to discern a certain type of sharp betting from the pool to eliminate them.

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LOL. Also be sure to occasionally glimpse your cards when playing poker. And best to not roll dice by putting them in your mouth and spitting them out.

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get on the podcast or stfu finally. jesus. you fucking clown.

You've literally been beat down to Singer's level which is one level above Kewl as far as credibility. Now DEAL with it. Or do you no longer have the mental faculties to understand this?

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I am up for the podcast any day any time. It's not my podcast, genius. Tomorrow, Sunday, Monday, next week, next month. I'm good with any and all of it.

Look, account, I promise to not respond to you again. But out of the goodness of my heart, I let you know that your response to the post above was something a third-grader with Alzheimer's might write. Have you considered not actually writing about shit you know absolutely nothing about? I guess not. One of the advantages/disadvantages of online "anonymity." Take account of yourself, for God's sake. Actually ponder what you just typed once in awhile. If you don't know anything about something, you might want to consider not typing. These trailblazing observations of yours are embarrassing.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by Don Perignom

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Originally Posted by redietz

I think the pandemic line moves and people accessing early "load management" decisions created the perspective that NBA sides were beatable.

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Can I chime in from a "mechanical" perspective? (I hope my terminology is correct.)

Middles can often be less obvious than scalps.

Here's a scalp:

Lakers moneyline -105
Mavs moneyline +110

Smart bettors will jump on this because the advantage is plainly apparent.

But now here's a middle:

Lakers -1 -110
Mavs +3 -110

This is a bigger advantage, but requires more thought (and data) to perceive.

Similarly, on a total:

Lakers/Mavs OVER 225 -110
UNDER 229 -110

Again, not completely obvious.

My examples are a little extreme, but this is why opportunities can arise on sides rather than moneylines -- because of the camouflage factor.

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Do you have the ability to do an EV calculation between the 2 bets? (I did at one point in my life but it'd take hours for me to figure it out and find the data to do it with)

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I can’t recall all the details but I think someone once said something like “There is no such thing as EV in sports betting, but you can calculate it after the game has been played & the results are in.”

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by redietz

LOL. Also be sure to occasionally glimpse your cards when playing poker. And best to not roll dice by putting them in your mouth and spitting them out.

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get on the podcast or stfu finally. jesus. you fucking clown.

You've literally been beat down to Singer's level which is one level above Kewl as far as credibility. Now DEAL with it. Or do you no longer have the mental faculties to understand this?

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I am up for the podcast any day any time. It's not my podcast, genius. Tomorrow, Sunday, Monday, next week, next month. I'm good with any and all of it.

Look, account, I promise to not respond to you again. But out of the goodness of my heart, I let you know that your response to the post above was something a third-grader with Alzheimer's might write. Have you considered not actually writing about shit you know absolutely nothing about? I guess not. One of the advantages/disadvantages of online "anonymity." Take account of yourself, for God's sake. Actually ponder what you just typed once in awhile. If you don't know anything about something, you might want to consider not typing. These trailblazing observations of yours are embarrassing.

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We are having a discussion about sports betting. I understand how books can easily pick off people that beat CLV or whatever but it never occurred to me that they can also look at the timestamps of your bets to find sharps. We were just having a discussion and I admitted to some level of ignorance. Who gives a fuck but you? I've never put myself out there as anything NEAR a professional sports bettor. Infact, I'm sure I've said numerous times I've placed relatively few bets.

The whole thread was started by successful APs who have an interest in professional sports betting. Not buster scamdicappers. You have no interest in learning about anything, all you want to do is beg about trying to gain respect on here with your stale-ass knowledge from decades ago and need to worship scumbag mafia.

I'm not some busted ass loser who has to prove themselves by incessant name dropping in every post while simultaneously being wrong and mocking those who have established records. Your bullshit might fly in bumfuck TN pizza parlor bathroom get togethers but it won't on here. Deal with it.

*You* diagnosing others with dementia is peak redietz. If I was half the asshole I am, I wouldn't point this out but I'm full-on asshole.

Go take another picture with another man's car and post it so I can use that to also ridicule you. Chump.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

I understand how books can easily pick off people that beat CLV or whatever but it never occurred to me that they can also look at the timestamps of your bets to find sharps. We were just having a discussion and I admitted to some level of ignorance. Who gives a fuck but you? I've never put myself out there as anything NEAR a professional sports bettor.

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Same here. I try to achieve basic proficiency at multiple endeavors, but I've rarely considered myself an expert at anything. I've rarely if ever felt comfortable with my assessments of "cover." I've played casino machine games for a couple of decades, and I still don't know with any reliability what it takes to generate mail and remain welcome.

Commenting further on attacking line moves in sports, let's say an injury or other news is announced, and the Maggots suddenly shift from a prevailing line of +150 to +120. If I have real-time alerts, I'll see maybe 5 or 6 remaining books still sitting at +150. If I immediately bet into those books, I fear bad things may happen. Now fast-forward 10 minutes, and only 1 or 2 books remain with the stale line. At this point, I figure I have a green light because the line is either intentional or incompetent.

/not an expert

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lost pick above

today - Wyler Abreu under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs - 135______________Orioles vs. Red Sox

he's had only 2 hits, zero runs and zero RBIs in his last 7 games

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lost pick above

I'm 6-4 on my picks here

only about 9% profit because some paid out less than the common -110

gonna take a break - it's a lot of work looking at these props - maybe I'll post some in the future

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Originally Posted by MDawg

This just comes back to that this UNKewl one is INcapable of keeping his mouth shut. As well as INcapable of staying away from these forums for even just a few days notwithstanding his (claimed) resolve.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

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Originally Posted by MDawg

This just comes back to that this UNKewl one is INcapable of keeping his mouth shut. As well as INcapable of staying away from these forums for even just a few days notwithstanding his (claimed) resolve.

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He hasn’t posted here in a few weeks. If you want to blow him so bad, sent him a private message, you obsessed, camel stroking homo

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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lost pick above

I'm 6-4 on my picks here

only about 9% profit because some paid out less than the common -110

gonna take a break - it's a lot of work looking at these props - maybe I'll post some in the future

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Honestly, cross-referencing props 24/7 for the week leading up to the SB for that contest was the most pain-in-the-ass thing I've ever done, including delivering milk for a penny a quart when I was nine. You gotta juggle numbers in your head, try to figure out where they are likely to go, stay on top of everything, and then make decisions you can live with, knowing the timing for at least a third of them will be non-optimal.

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I stopped posting here but I started up again at WOV

I went 14-5 on my 19 picks there starting on May 25 in the "sports betting chatter" thread - my last pick was yesterday

a few of them only paid out close to 1/2 but I was way, way up in profitability

but I've gotten tired of it - I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions) and it took a lot of time for me to come up with just ONE pick I liked

there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can beat sports if I want to - my way is to form an opinion - not to crunch tons of numbers - of course, I'm not knocking those who do - they will get way, way more picks than I would

my profitability in my picks had nothing to do with free play or bonus $ which is of course a great thing

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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I stopped posting here but I started up again at WOV

I went 14-5 on my 19 picks there starting on May 25 in the "sports betting chatter" thread - my last pick was yesterday

a few of them only paid out close to 1/2 but I was way, way up in profitability

but I've gotten tired of it - I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions) and it took a lot of time for me to come up with just ONE pick I liked

there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can beat sports if I want to - my way is to form an opinion - not to crunch tons of numbers - of course, I'm not knocking those who do - they will get way, way more picks than I would

my profitability in my picks had nothing to do with free play or bonus $ which is of course a great thing

.

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Howdy HS. I followed along with your picks and tagged along with some. I am not crazy about laying big odds like you did on some picks so I didn't tag along on all, but some. Not to influence your decision to stop, as you seem to have valid reasons, but just wanted to let you know, your efforts were appreciated.

If you read my other thread, you know I am coming to an end with my bonus whoring plays as well. The bonus have dropped to a point that it just isn't worth the time I am putting in. Still making a little profit, but just not worth the time. That time could be put to better use (for me in the AP world).

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Originally Posted by mcap

You’re going into these elaborate logic chains that aren’t ALL that different from saying you couldn’t possibly count cards for a living in Las Vegas for over a decade….

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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I stopped posting here but I started up again at WOV

I went 14-5 on my 19 picks there starting on May 25 in the "sports betting chatter" thread - my last pick was yesterday

a few of them only paid out close to 1/2 but I was way, way up in profitability

but I've gotten tired of it - I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions) and it took a lot of time for me to come up with just ONE pick I liked

there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can beat sports if I want to - my way is to form an opinion - not to crunch tons of numbers - of course, I'm not knocking those who do - they will get way, way more picks than I would

my profitability in my picks had nothing to do with free play or bonus $ which is of course a great thing

.

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Howdy HS. I followed along with your picks and tagged along with some. I AM NOT CRAZY ABOUT LAYING BIG ODDS LIKE YOU DID on some picks so I didn't tag along on all, but some. Not to influence your decision to stop, as you seem to have valid reasons, but just wanted to let you know, your efforts were appreciated.

If you read my other thread, you know I am coming to an end with my bonus whoring plays as well. The bonus have dropped to a point that it just isn't worth the time I am putting in. Still making a little profit, but just not worth the time. That time could be put to better use (for me in the AP world).

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I overlooked posting the main reason I believe sports is more easily beatable now - the reason is props - and a few of them every single day are obviously mispriced - but wow - what an effort it takes to find them

one of the main reasons these props are mispriced is because so many are shaded so that the bettor who wants the big payout gets screwed and so few bettors (such as yourself) are willing to plunge for smaller payouts which are very often a much better deal

it hasn't been documented in sports betting (to the best of my knowledge) but it has in horse racing

because of longshot lovers bettors betting only faves in racing will lose less than the takeout (but not nearly enough to be profitable because the takeout is so huge)

those who bet extreme longshots in racing will get totally crushed in the long run - losing much, much more than the takeout

I found it quite amusing - a pro racing writer estimated the true odds of the horses at the Belmont Stakes

the horse Uncaged who went off at 19/1 - he estimated the fair odds as being 200/1______________:)

he estimated the horse Heart of Honor who went off at 20/1 as having fair odds of 106/1____________________:)

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Originally Posted by MDawg

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Originally Posted by MDawg

The truth is … UNKewlJ hasn’t spent 20 years playing blackjack. He’s spent 20 years trying to convince people that he’s been playing blackjack.

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And now going on a year trying desperately to establish that he's ever placed a sports bet in his tunnel dwelling life.

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Why isn't this retard out pretending to be a high roller?

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

.
I stopped posting here but I started up again at WOV

I went 14-5 on my 19 picks there starting on May 25 in the "sports betting chatter" thread - my last pick was yesterday

a few of them only paid out close to 1/2 but I was way, way up in profitability

but I've gotten tired of it - I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions) and it took a lot of time for me to come up with just ONE pick I liked

there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that I can beat sports if I want to - my way is to form an opinion - not to crunch tons of numbers - of course, I'm not knocking those who do - they will get way, way more picks than I would

my profitability in my picks had nothing to do with free play or bonus $ which is of course a great thing

.

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Howdy HS. I followed along with your picks and tagged along with some. I AM NOT CRAZY ABOUT LAYING BIG ODDS LIKE YOU DID on some picks so I didn't tag along on all, but some. Not to influence your decision to stop, as you seem to have valid reasons, but just wanted to let you know, your efforts were appreciated.

If you read my other thread, you know I am coming to an end with my bonus whoring plays as well. The bonus have dropped to a point that it just isn't worth the time I am putting in. Still making a little profit, but just not worth the time. That time could be put to better use (for me in the AP world).

---

I overlooked posting the main reason I believe sports is more easily beatable now - the reason is props - and a few of them every single day are obviously mispriced - but wow - what an effort it takes to find them

one of the main reasons these props are mispriced is because so many are shaded so that the bettor who wants the big payout gets screwed and so few bettors (such as yourself) are willing to plunge for smaller payouts which are very often a much better deal

it hasn't been documented in sports betting (to the best of my knowledge) but it has in horse racing

because of longshot lovers bettors betting only faves in racing will lose less than the takeout (but not nearly enough to be profitable because the takeout is so huge)

those who bet extreme longshots in racing will get totally crushed in the long run - losing much, much more than the takeout

I found it quite amusing - a pro racing writer estimated the true odds of the horses at the Belmont Stakes

the horse Uncaged who went off at 19/1 - he estimated the fair odds as being 200/1______________:)

he estimated the horse Heart of Honor who went off at 20/1 as having fair odds of 106/1____________________:)

.

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I think there is a key, significant difference between "easily beatable" and "profitable."

The phrase "easily beatable" means you can rifle-shoot the occasional alleged error for a prop, which is usually based on a certain historical block of results that can be rendered dated by things (in the NBA) as obvious as a transition from ass-grabbing regular season to semi-serious playoffs or a change in coaches, even assistant coaches. In baseball, it can be something as simple and obvious as a dramatic change in batting order. But the problem with trying to actually make money from the "easily beatable" rarity is that the limits are low. So you can get three or four or five consecutive "easily beatables" correct and make very little money, even sprinkling it around at half a dozen different books (assuming everyone isn't on red alert simultaneously for it, which is what usually occurs).

So if you're constrained by $300 or $500 limits on particular sites for smaller props, this is a lot of spinning of one's wheels and investing of time to find $300 or $500 wagers where you are laying -115 for half of them.

To bring in a Kim Lee/KewlJ angle, this is why when Fezzik "retired" publicly and said he would restrict himself to props going forward, the announcement was so jarring. It basically meant he was transitioning from high-rolling mega-bets to pouring over hundreds of props while betting a a twentieth or less of what he had been betting. It suggested strongly that something had really gone wrong.

The other key and obvious aspect to this is that the prop volatility is generally higher than other forms of betting, which relates some to the low limits. But the point is that monitoring ALL of the props ALL of the time is a full-time job. Since the props numbers change so frequently that getting the optimal number and/or optimal price requires threading the proverbial time/place needle, it becomes an ongoing, every hour-of-the-day project. Now whether $300 and $500 limit props are worth that kind of personal investment is not something everyone is going to agree on.