Professional Sportsbetting

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Look Dietz, I know you went to Pennsylvania Farmer's college or whatever the original name was, so I will try to explain this so even YOU can understand.

A professional gambler, gambles for a living. That means places real money wager on outcomes of events, casino games, sporting events, what have you. They have to win more than they lose, winning more money than they lose. If they lose more than they win, they lose money and won't last long as a professional gambler (unless they have a family that just keeps giving them money :rolleyes:)

So you Bob Dietz, do NOT meet this criteria is any way. You make you money by selling a service. You are a salesmen. It just so happens that service is related to sports in the form of picks. But You make your money from sales. Might just as well be condo as sports picks.

Unlike a professional gambler you don't lose money if your picks don't win. Oh you may claim you place a few sheckles on some bets, but the majority of your money comes from sales and isn't effected win or lose the wagers.

You Got it so far, PA farmers college boy?

Now you hold out these contests and publications of contest as some sort of proof that they are not. Those things are a tool that touts use to solicit new customers. And everyone knows it. And even that, if you do poorly in a contest, it costs you nothing, moneywise. except maybe you can't hold out that particular contest when soliciting new suckers. You are going to have to re-use some of the older ones that you did better in. In YOUR case, I guess that is 1983. :D

So stop with this nonsense. Just like Singer in the Newell at the dealership and Dawg with his cash and chips on the bed, your proof doesn't prove what you are trying to claim it does. And you just aren't fooling anyone.

THAT is the offensive part. That you people think you can come to a gambling forum (I know this barely qualifies), where there are real professional gamblers and player that play for a living, and think you can pull this shit. It is insulting dude.

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Well, it's good to know I don't gamble. Thank God.

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book? I bet more than half a million there, all on record of course, and it's one of more than a dozen accounts. But it is one of my accounts with the least action. You know me, no 50 bets a day in pursuit of a bonus, thinking the site, God bless them, won't catch on. I'm just not clever enough to do that stuff.

But I digress. You gotta love someone who claims the best evidence is a lack of evidence. How does that line go, according to some posters? KewlJ is known for saying that some people blow what they're talking about, and some people are just talking? Something like that.

Nobody on this forum, other than MrV (who actually is among the least knowledgeable) thinks kewlJ actually gambles. It's pretty funny. The guy who has convinced the least posts the most. I guess this forum desperately needs more people to blow what they're talking about. Or something like that.

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book?

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For the hundredth time, I Don't have an account at oddsmaker.

I did, but they were the very first to cut me off (shitty bonuses and rollover requirements) after I transitioned from rec sports bettor to bonus APing. The VERY first well over a year ago. I knew they were never going to be able to handle the volume of wagers and money I was betting, so it was no surprise.

No go ahead and bring up YouWager next. Another sports book that I no longer play. They were the second to cut me off by stiffing me bonus money after I had achieved rollover.

Dietz, you don't know shit about me or what I do. You Bob Dietz are the very definition of a "poser". Not surprising you have latched on to other posers like you have. Is there a secret "Poser" handshake?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

One final look

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Originally Posted by KewlJ

this will be my final post here and on any site throughout the gaming/AP community.

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

The reason he posts so much is because he never feels as if his lies are getting across to anyone, and that bothers him. Someone who lives such a concocted virtual life on internet gaming forums just CANNOT have that

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book? I bet more than half a million there, all on record of course, and it's one of more than a dozen accounts. .

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WHO'S MONEY DID YOU BET?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book? I bet more than half a million there, all on record of course, and it's one of more than a dozen accounts. .

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WHO'S MONEY DID YOU BET?

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Interesting question. Would you be more impressed if I (A) bet all my own money or (B) was entrusted by other people to bet theirs?

Assuming people are generally halfway bright, I would be more impressed with (B). It would mean I had a long-term reputation with a group of individuals who knew each other and felt comfortable plopping down five digits plus in my custody to do with as I pleased.

Now you might have a different response, but frankly I see (B) as much more impressive. Betting half a million yourself at a particular site just means you have half a million to bet. Betting half a million at a site with it being other people's money means the person betting must either (A) have some kind of verifiable track record that would entice them to do so, (B) they would theoretically be so experienced in the business that they have no qualms handing off the money, or (C) I'm able to hypnotize wealthy people to give me money to play with.

Axelwolf, do you really think that was some kind of gotcha question? Have you been imbibing this evening?

And if you're going to capitalize shit, either take a freshman English class or turn on a spell-checker. Christ, Alan Mendelson is turning over right now.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book? I bet more than half a million there, all on record of course, and it's one of more than a dozen accounts. .

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WHO'S MONEY DID YOU BET?

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I've bet 100k in an hour on a machine and I'm a putz in the AP world. This guy probably betting some sort of bullshit frequent players points. Notice how red didn't say what he actually bet - just half a million. Lol wtfever. Clowns abound

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book?

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For the hundredth time, I Don't have an account at oddsmaker.

I did, but they were the very first to cut me off (shitty bonuses and rollover requirements) after I transitioned from rec sports bettor to bonus APing. The VERY first well over a year ago. I knew they were never going to be able to handle the volume of wagers and money I was betting, so it was no surprise.

No go ahead and bring up YouWager next. Another sports book that I no longer play. They were the second to cut me off by stiffing me bonus money after I had achieved rollover.

Dietz, you don't know shit about me or what I do. You Bob Dietz are the very definition of a "poser". Not surprising you have latched on to other posers like you have. Is there a secret "Poser" handshake?

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You keep telling red how it actually is when you're not playing off wife/associate money.

I used to say the best poker skill is the gift of the borrow. I believe that to be analogous here.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book? I bet more than half a million there, all on record of course, and it's one of more than a dozen accounts. .

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WHO'S MONEY DID YOU BET?

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Interesting question. Would you be more impressed if I (A) bet all my own money or (B) was entrusted by other people to bet theirs?

Assuming people are generally halfway bright, I would be more impressed with (B). It would mean I had a long-term reputation with a group of individuals who knew each other and felt comfortable plopping down five digits plus in my custody to do with as I pleased.

Now you might have a different response, but frankly I see (B) as much more impressive. Betting half a million yourself at a particular site just means you have half a million to bet. Betting half a million at a site with it being other people's money means the person betting must either (A) have some kind of verifiable track record that would entice them to do so, (B) they would theoretically be so experienced in the business that they have no qualms handing off the money, or (C) I'm able to hypnotize wealthy people to give me money to play with.

Axelwolf, do you really think that was some kind of gotcha question? Have you been imbibing this evening?

And if you're going to capitalize shit, either take a freshman English class or turn on a spell-checker. Christ, Alan Mendelson is turning over right now.

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Betting half a million doesn't mean you have half a million to bet. Get back to playing basketball with people who hopefully can understand this.

Yes, I can work with this. Ha.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

The crazy Canadian Garnabby wants shorter posts. So here goes.

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--->

Don't Go Near the Water (The Beach Boys song). [First thus solution.]

Say Goodbye (Chris Brown song). [Last thus solution.]

https://anagram-solver.net/The%20cra....?partial=true

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The statement did not disclose a cause of death. Wilson had suffered from dementia and was unable to care for himself after his wife Melinda Wilson died in early 2024, prompting his family to put him under conservatorship ...9 hours ago

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Music groups: The Beach Boys (Since 1961), California Music (Since 1974 = (2 + 40)*(10 + 37) ---> 241_137).

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https://youtu.be/ruKCw797JM4

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I posted this earlier in the thread:

"one of the main reasons these props are mispriced is because so many are shaded so that the bettor who wants the big payout gets screwed and so few bettors (such as yourself) are willing to plunge for smaller payouts which are very often a much better deal"

and just now I found this info re Fezzik's betting who Red has mentioned - although the bets he's referring to here are not props

quite interesting - he takes this to extremes that I never have and never will - still I recognize him as an expert and his words have value

here are some quotes from him and then the link:

"NCAA basketball favorites of between 22 and 24½ points have won 449 of 454 games since 2006, according to boydbets.com, for a winning percentage of 98.9. That equates to a -9,090 money line, while a 98.0 win percentage equates to -4,999.

So Fezzik believes he has an edge when he can lay less than -5,000 in those games. He said he routinely lays -4,000 and will do so again in the NCAA Tournament.

“I bet $40,000 all the time to win $1,000. But it’s something you probably shouldn’t be doing unless you’re a guy with a documented track record and strong math history,” he said. “The real key number is when you get a favorite above 22 points and I can lay -4,000. That would be the sweet spot.”

Fezzik told me that he actually bet $38,000 to win $1,000 on the Wildcats, who were as high as 24½-point favorites over the Blue Demons, who went 0-20 in the conference in the regular season.


https://forum.bookmakersreview.com/t...ong-run.50748/


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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by redietz

If any person, any handle, were to claim they died in a robbery, then came back from the dead,

Then claimed they had been roughed up at South Point and called Nersesian, who took the case,

Then claimed they were broke but attended Villanova,

The question would arise, if someone lies about all of these overarching major events in life, why should anyone believe the same person is being fastidiously truthful about the rest of it? You would have to be a complete loon to buy any of it.

Why some anonymous, fairy-tale inventing whackadoodle has any expectation of being believed about any of what he writes is a wonderful question. Various forms of mental illness come to mind.

Best to just ignore him/them.

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Aw, shucks, red. Why hasnt Druff reported seeing your credit score yet? Whats it been? A year? Do you think it got lost in the mail?

Were you lying? So it ain’t so, redietz.

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We close on a newly built home, which sits in the shadow of Bristol Motor Speedway, in two weeks. Four bedrooms. When Rob makes his way to Asheville next time, he's invited to drop in.

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Hell, one can buy a house with a 4% down payment if they've got a 600 credit score.

Quit trying to move the goalposts, ditz. You said you would send your proven credit score to Druff because you wouldn't show it here. Something about it being to easy to post a phony score, you said.

You started this shit because you thought that no way possible AP's would have good credit scores. So you challenged us. You fucked around and found out. We produced our credit scores. YOU ABSCONDED with posting yours saying you would send it to Druff to verify. Well so far ain't nothing been verified.

If you don't show your score then you cheated your own challenge.

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Originally Posted by MHF

Yes, I can work with this. Ha.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

The crazy Canadian Garnabby wants shorter posts. So here goes.

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--->

Don't Go Near the Water (The Beach Boys song). [First thus solution.]

Say Goodbye (Chris Brown song). [Last thus solution.]

https://anagram-solver.net/The%20cra....?partial=true

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The Santa Barbara Police Department has released the cause and manner of death of former professional surfer Chris Brown.

According to a press release released on Wednesday, Brown died as a result of drowning due to blunt force injuries. On January 19 ---> 911, Brown fell from a cliffside at Hendry’s Beach and suffered serious injuries that made him unable to remove himself from the surfline. Brown drowned below the cliffside where he fell.

Toxicology reports also state that Brown was under the influence of a high level of methamphetamine at the time of his death. It’s unclear if this played a role in his death, but Brown had experienced Acute Methamphetamine Intoxication.

The manner of death certified by the coroner is listed as “undetermined.” The death was not a result of foul play according to investigators.

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https://youtu.be/GJ26gAc7BtU

Steve Fezzik heaps high praise on Plus EV Analytics who has been featured in this thread. How about that? A sports bettor named "Plus EV? And Fezzik thinks the guy is great? Didn't someone say EV has nothing to do with sports betting?

https://x.com/fezziksports/status/19...TlRn3nbq5DLvlw

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Steve Fezzik heaps high praise on Plus EV Analytics who has been featured in this thread. How about that? A sports bettor named "Plus EV? And Fezzik thinks the guy is great? Didn't someone say EV has nothing to do with sports betting?

https://x.com/fezziksports/status/19...TlRn3nbq5DLvlw

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Well, technically, I say that "EV" is fine when used to describe past results and summaries. Where people run into trouble is when they try to import a term best left to random events and apply it to non-random events going forward as if it has some actual precision, which is not the case. Now the argument, I suppose, can be made that it has SOME precision, but realistically, the only way it's useful is if the person doing the wagering going forward is completely at sea and has no real idea what he/she is doing, in which case I suppose any "ballpark precision" -- I love that as an oxymoronic phrase -- has some utility as opposed to having no idea whatsoever what you're doing.

I'm not saying anything that Wikipedia or a freshman math text doesn't make pretty clear.

I actually love this topic because it segues into a host of gambling discussions regarding the social psychology of human beings and classic psych studies. Hopefully, any interview with me will broach the subject.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Steve Fezzik heaps high praise on Plus EV Analytics who has been featured in this thread. How about that? A sports bettor named "Plus EV? And Fezzik thinks the guy is great? Didn't someone say EV has nothing to do with sports betting?

https://x.com/fezziksports/status/19...TlRn3nbq5DLvlw

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Well, technically, I say that "EV" is fine when used to describe past results and summaries. Where people run into trouble is when they try to import a term best left to random events and apply it to non-random events going forward as if it has some actual precision, which is not the case. Now the argument, I suppose, can be made that it has SOME precision, but realistically, the only way it's useful is if the person doing the wagering going forward is completely at sea and has no real idea what he/she is doing, in which case I suppose any "ballpark precision" -- I love that as an oxymoronic phrase -- has some utility as opposed to having no idea whatsoever what you're doing.

I'm not saying anything that Wikipedia or a freshman math text doesn't make pretty clear.

I actually love this topic because it segues into a host of gambling discussions regarding the social psychology of human beings and classic psych studies. Hopefully, any interview with me will broach the subject.

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God fucking damn. After the results are known it is no longer expected. It is the goddam known value. You thick skulled nimrod.

My guess is you should talk to Dennison more as he seems to be looking after you trying to keep you from embarrassing yourself.
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That's my point.

Technically, and this goes into the use of tenses when it comes to gambling as was discussed during the late Alan Mendelson's contribution to the classic dice-under-a-cup problem, saying "the EV was" refers to the advocate's estimation of "the EV" in past tense at the point in time in the past the advocate was doing the estimation. It's not mathematically appropriate, but it's linguistically and logically appropriate. In other words, it's subjective and references the advocate making the statement, which most people would consider inappropriate for a math term. But linguistically and logically, it's fine. If somebody wants to reference themselves, which I assume is what you're doing when you make an estimation outside of random events based on your personal opinion, then you say, "The EV was." That frames you as the person who made the estimation, with subjectivity baked in. You are taking ownership of your opinion. It's not a math term at that point; it's an opinion term.

I thought this was obvious. That's why I kept saying you should swap it out for "my opinion is" or "my opinion of the EV was."

Garnabby, you want to explain this? I know I was unfamiliar with the language spelled out regarding tenses in the dice-under-a-cup problem. I wasn't savvy regarding the use of language for that topic.

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Originally Posted by redietz

That's my point.

Technically, and this goes into the use of tenses when it comes to gambling as was discussed during the late Alan Mendelson's contribution to the classic dice-under-a-cup problem, saying "the EV was" refers to the advocate's estimation of "the EV" in past tense at the point in time in the past the advocate was doing the estimation. It's not mathematically appropriate, but it's linguistically and logically appropriate. In other words, it's subjective and references the advocate making the statement, which most people would consider inappropriate for a math term. But linguistically and logically, it's fine. If somebody wants to reference themselves, which I assume is what you're doing when you make an estimation outside of random events based on your personal opinion, then you say, "The EV was." That frames you as the person who made the estimation, with subjectivity baked in. You are taking ownership of your opinion. It's not a math term at that point; it's an opinion term.

I thought this was obvious. That's why I kept saying you should swap it out for "my opinion is" or "my opinion of the EV was."

Garnabby, you want to explain this? I know I was unfamiliar with the language spelled out regarding tenses in the dice-under-a-cup problem. I wasn't savvy regarding the use of language for that topic.

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Walters didnt bet opinions. He bet statistics. Statistics are from the past. His power ratings corresponded to the lines. If team A had a power rating of 7 and Team B had a power rating of 4 then his line was Team A -3. He compared it to the bookies line. He needed the line to be 1.5 different from his in order to make a minimum bet. He didn’t care if Team A was -1.5 or Team B was +4.5, just that the line was 1.5 different than his. And the bigger the difference between his line and the bookies line the more he bet. Why? Because it had bigger Expected Value, of course.

Didnt you guys discuss that at the Johnson City book club? Because thats what Walters wrote.

At 28:00 Krack talks about the 2-leg baseball parlays the books wont let him bet anymore

https://youtu.be/ko0g9hb7Gn4?si=Tq7oc8tox7cFoZC5

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by redietz

You know your account at Oddsmaker? That little boutique book? I bet more than half a million there, all on record of course, and it's one of more than a dozen accounts. .

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WHO'S MONEY DID YOU BET?

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Interesting question. Would you be more impressed if I (A) bet all my own money or (B) was entrusted by other people to bet theirs?

Assuming people are generally halfway bright, I would be more impressed with (B). It would mean I had a long-term reputation with a group of individuals who knew each other and felt comfortable plopping down five digits plus in my custody to do with as I pleased.

Now you might have a different response, but frankly I see (B) as much more impressive. Betting half a million yourself at a particular site just means you have half a million to bet. Betting half a million at a site with it being other people's money means the person betting must either (A) have some kind of verifiable track record that would entice them to do so, (B) they would theoretically be so experienced in the business that they have no qualms handing off the money, or (C) I'm able to hypnotize wealthy people to give me money to play with.

Axelwolf, do you really think that was some kind of gotcha question? Have you been imbibing this evening?

And if you're going to capitalize shit, either take a freshman English class or turn on a spell-checker. Christ, Alan Mendelson is turning over right now.

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Neither A nor B. I have bet millions of my own money and have been entrusted with 100's of thousands of team money since my 20s.


Bull shit, you don't need a half of million dollars to put into action millions of dollars. I would sometimes put 100s of thousands of action in per day, starting with much less than 100k.

Again, I ask whose money were you betting? OPM or your own?

There's enough evidance in the gambling world that can show losing and or untrustworthy gamblers can sucker/hypnotize wealthy people to give them money to play with. >>> Sports touts are still in buissness along with various non-sports related gambling BS.

I say, SHOW ME THE MATH OF THE +EV <<<That's what matters. Whenever I engage in a play with partners, for myself, when I hire people, invest in, offer action or whatever, I can show the EV via math and logic. There isn't much guessing. IE, the math shows a 130% edge with an avrage betting size of X with X expected number of trials/bets and an apprximate hourly rate or total estimated earn. That 130% might be off 5% either way, but one can still see there's a high EV, low risk(sometimes high risk), that can be calculated.

Show us your calculations and logic that back up the fact that you are a +EV sports bettor.

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Originally Posted by jce102jz

Axelwolf was drunk 80% of the time I worked with him. He used to have me order his drinks for him, so that he could have two drinks at the same time. Always captain morgan.

Axelwolf's decision making skills were affected by his drinking, no question. He would be drunk, then make poor decisions, which in the end costed team money.

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