Professional Sportsbetting

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Originally Posted by redietz

That's my point.

Technically, and this goes into the use of tenses when it comes to gambling as was discussed during the late Alan Mendelson's contribution to the classic dice-under-a-cup problem, saying "the EV was" refers to the advocate's estimation of "the EV" in past tense at the point in time in the past the advocate was doing the estimation. It's not mathematically appropriate, but it's linguistically and logically appropriate. In other words, it's subjective and references the advocate making the statement, which most people would consider inappropriate for a math term. But linguistically and logically, it's fine. If somebody wants to reference themselves, which I assume is what you're doing when you make an estimation outside of random events based on your personal opinion, then you say, "The EV was." That frames you as the person who made the estimation, with subjectivity baked in. You are taking ownership of your opinion. It's not a math term at that point; it's an opinion term.

I thought this was obvious. That's why I kept saying you should swap it out for "my opinion is" or "my opinion of the EV was."

Garnabby, you want to explain this? I know I was unfamiliar with the language spelled out regarding tenses in the dice-under-a-cup problem. I wasn't savvy regarding the use of language for that topic.

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Wow greatest post of bullshit you have ever made.

It seems you still don't get my point. You're just trying to sound smart but too dumb to know how bad you failed. What nutty shit.

I'm not going to repeat what every pro bettor knows but after the event occurs you still don't know what the EV was. You know what the value is.

I'm betting no sane person will understand or agree with whatever the point is you're trying to make. Talk about word salad. Holy fuck.

I don't get what Dietz is saying or trying to say. :confused:

Is he saying that the EV, which is figured before the wager somehow changes after the results are known? I can't imagine even he would think that, but I just can't come up with any other explanation for what he is mumbling at this point. Can anyone help me?

All I can say is the very obvious. EV is not an opinion. EV is the math of the wager or play.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If kewlJ IS a male escort, the whole blackjack schtick is an excellent cover story to explain income to the IRS AND facilitate meeting wealthy dudes at casino tables.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

That is precisely what he does. He's been observed at the tables by a host of people including MaxPen and AxelWolf, in the presence of an obvious sugar daddy type, pushing around low level red and green chips as obvious cover.

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Opinion = Just guessing without an overall advantage/ flipping coins with vig.

Of course, someone who is getting a free roll from their investors has an advantage.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Opinion = Just guessing without an overall advantage/ flipping coins with vig.

Of course, someone who is getting a free roll from their investors has an advantage.

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When I was heavy into poker I always thought one of the greatest yet unmentioned skills in poker is the gift of borrowing money and specifically without shame.

fact.

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Opinion = Just guessing without an overall advantage/ flipping coins with vig.

Of course, someone who is getting a free roll from their investors has an advantage.

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When I was heavy into poker I always thought one of the greatest yet unmentioned skills in poker is the gift of borrowing money and specifically without shame.

fact.

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The easiest thing to do in poker is loan money.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

Opinion = Just guessing without an overall advantage/ flipping coins with vig.

Of course, someone who is getting a free roll from their investors has an advantage.

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When I was heavy into poker I always thought one of the greatest yet unmentioned skills in poker is the gift of borrowing money and specifically without shame.

fact.

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The easiest thing to do in poker is loan money.

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I used to loan money to dealers, poker management, and regs all the time. I only got stiffed by one guy, Buck, a black dealer from the Horseshoe/Binions. It was only $200, and he never seemed to have it.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by accountinquestion

When I was heavy into poker I always thought one of the greatest yet unmentioned skills in poker is the gift of borrowing money and specifically without shame.

fact.

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The easiest thing to do in poker is loan money.

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I used to loan money to dealers, poker management, and regs all the time. I only got stiffed by one guy, Buck, a black dealer from the Horseshoe/Binions. It was only $200, and he never seemed to have it.

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Better policy to never do it but if you know how to pick your spots for small amounts then it isn't such a big deal. Or even big amounts if you pick your spots. I know a few guys I'll loan a few K to in a room. Now a days all the regs seem to use cash apps.

Although I probably don't appreciate the benefits from helping people out.

Just curious...when you poker guys loan money to players what are the "terms?"

Loaning money to poker players - A formula for happiness & success.

Almost as good as loaning money to slot players.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Just curious...when you poker guys loan money to players what are the "terms?"

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I have no clue what other people's terms were. In my case, it varied; there were many times it was just good for the game. Chances are, if someome is desperate enough to be borrowing money at a poker game, it's probably because they're on tilt and playing very badly.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Just curious...when you poker guys loan money to players what are the "terms?"

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I have no clue what other people's terms were. In my case, it varied; there were many times it was just good for the game. Chances are, if someome is desperate enough to be borrowing money at a poker game, it's probably because they're on tilt and playing very badly.

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Last year, I loaned out 30k to someone, and for each 6 months, I'll get an extra 3k. It's been a year so far.

I'm 100% positive I'll get paid back anytime I call in the loan, unless of course, God forbid, the person passed away, there are things in place in case that were to happen, but who knows on that aspect, I'm not 100% confident.

And if something were to happen to me, it would go to my wife.

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Just curious...when you poker guys loan money to players what are the "terms?"

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I have no clue what other people's terms were. In my case, it varied; there were many times it was just good for the game. Chances are, if someome is desperate enough to be borrowing money at a poker game, it's probably because they're on tilt and playing very badly.

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Last year, I loaned out 30k to someone, and for each 6 months, I'll get an extra 3k. It's been a year so far.

I'm 100% positive I'll get paid back anytime I call in the loan, unless of course, God forbid, the person passed away, there are things in place in case that were to happen, but who knows on that aspect, I'm not 100% confident.

And if something were to happen to me, it would go to my wife.

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How are you so certain you will ever be repaid? Do you vet these borrowers....is this a secured loan of some sort? Do you utilize notarized documents that ensure your wife gets repaid if something happens to you?

Trusting gamblers who need money? Doesn't sound "AP-ish".

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Originally Posted by Rob.Singer

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

I have no clue what other people's terms were. In my case, it varied; there were many times it was just good for the game. Chances are, if someome is desperate enough to be borrowing money at a poker game, it's probably because they're on tilt and playing very badly.

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Last year, I loaned out 30k to someone, and for each 6 months, I'll get an extra 3k. It's been a year so far.

I'm 100% positive I'll get paid back anytime I call in the loan, unless of course, God forbid, the person passed away, there are things in place in case that were to happen, but who knows on that aspect, I'm not 100% confident.

And if something were to happen to me, it would go to my wife.

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How are you so certain you will ever be repaid? Do you vet these borrowers....is this a secured loan of some sort? Do you utilize notarized documents that ensure your wife gets repaid if something happens to you?

Trusting gamblers who need money? Doesn't sound "AP-ish".

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That's a good question. The money isn't for degenerate gambling; it's for Big Boy AP sports betting(Not some penny-annie stuff like Red does), whereas they need as much money as they can get their hands on. They have a lot more money than I do, and I've known them since the '90s. They can actually calculate their +EV.

They didn't approach me and ask, I just asked if anybody was willing to pay some interest on a loan.

FYI if I mentioned to Mickey and a few others who it was they would probably say that's a hell of a safe bet.

It's the degenerates that hit you up for chump change. Flip 'em a 20 and you'll never see them again. The worst are the ones you just met, known maybe two hours and all of a sudden they need a loan. I get to laugh in their face when that happens.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

It's the degenerates that hit you up for chump change. Flip 'em a 20 and you'll never see them again. The worst are the ones you just met, known maybe two hours and all of a sudden they need a loan. I get to laugh in their face when that happens.

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Yeah, how desperate people must be to hit up "casino friends" they barely know for money to gamble with.

Just a sick addiction.

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Originally Posted by redietz

That's my point.

Technically, and this goes into the use of tenses when it comes to gambling as was discussed during the late Alan Mendelson's contribution to the classic dice-under-a-cup problem, saying "the EV was" refers to the advocate's estimation of "the EV" in past tense at the point in time in the past the advocate was doing the estimation. It's not mathematically appropriate, but it's linguistically and logically appropriate. In other words, it's subjective and references the advocate making the statement, which most people would consider inappropriate for a math term. But linguistically and logically, it's fine. If somebody wants to reference themselves, which I assume is what you're doing when you make an estimation outside of random events based on your personal opinion, then you say, "The EV was." That frames you as the person who made the estimation, with subjectivity baked in. You are taking ownership of your opinion. It's not a math term at that point; it's an opinion term.

I thought this was obvious. That's why I kept saying you should swap it out for "my opinion is" or "my opinion of the EV was."

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Redietz says EV can't be measured for future sports betting events as if he is the final authority. He's not. But many other pro sports bettors say EV can be measured and they use the term in future tense. So instead of saying "EV can't be measured in sports betting" redietz should say "MY OPINION is EV can't be measured in sports betting."

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Redietz says EV can't be measured for future sports betting events as if he is the final authority. He's not. But many other pro sports bettors say EV can be measured and they use the term in future tense. So instead of saying "EV can't be measured in sports betting" redietz should say "MY OPINION is EV can't be measured in sports betting."

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Expected Value can only be used in future tense. Maybe it is the initials that are throwing Dietz for a loop. Maybe he spelled out the words expected value each time, it would make more sense to him that it is an expectation of future results.

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Originally Posted by MDawg

The UNKewl one, just as he false name dropped before, made up that he knew or had anything to do with attorney Bob Nersesian.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Redietz says EV can't be measured for future sports betting events as if he is the final authority. He's not. But many other pro sports bettors say EV can be measured and they use the term in future tense. So instead of saying "EV can't be measured in sports betting" redietz should say "MY OPINION is EV can't be measured in sports betting."

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Expected Value can only be used in future tense. Maybe it is the initials that are throwing Dietz for a loop. Maybe he spelled out the words expected value each time, it would make more sense to him that it is an expectation of future results.

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If you want me to discuss this further, call into the radio show. You missed the whole point of the tense discussion. My fault; Garnabby can probably explain it to you.

"EV" should be a probabilistic term applied to random event projections. Oh hell, I'm not going to make you guys appear smarter than you are by tipping off the spiel. Call in and argue your points.

I love you guys.