Quote:
Originally Posted by
kewlJ
Rob, i am going to ask you to stop repeatedly posting that I am envious of other players that win more than I do. Mickeycrimm, jbjb, Monet, MaxPen, Axelwolf and just about every AP that participates here or other forums win more than me. I have never questioned or challenged a single one of them. The difference is they are doing something mathematical that can back up and explain their advantage and winning. The only person that had math that could explain and back up their ability to win was Moses. With Moses, I challenged the amounts. A player can't do what he claimed in RENO. Has he made the same claims but said he was playing Las Vegas or traveling around to multiple locations, I wouldn't have questioned anything. It just can't be done in a small sweaty place like Reno (for more than very short bursts).
Now Mdawg and yourself, you have no math that can explain or back up your claims. your claims DEFY the math. You both have been given ample opportunity to make your case. You have come up with "special plays", stop limits and machines teleporting hot and cold cycles. :rolleyes: Mdawg has come up with betting into streaks (similar to hot cycles). These are long disproven voodoo crap by both of you.
And then the playbook is that you both go on the attack. I suspect that it is he who copied your playbook on that, but either way, it is simply a deflection because you have no legitimate mathematical supported answers. Without some sort of math to back up your claims you and Mdawg and a few others are absolutely no different than Alan and his 18 y.o. in a row. If anything you are worse because I honestly don't believe Alan set out to intentionally deceive anyone. He is just mis-remembering and now that he has been shown the math too stubborn to admit he was wrong.
So I am going to say every, or 98% of advantage players playing for a living and I include some that may not be exclusively playing for a living but are playing seriously make more than me and I have never challenged a single one. Nor am I jealous of any. I measure myself against myself and my goals. I am not in competition with anyone else, nor jealous of anyone else. It is purely about the math for me. If you are going to claim long-term winning playing -EV games like you and Mdawg, you have got to have something, some math to back it up.
The fundamental problem with the bell curve claims is that the people making the claim that they have won simply by being at the far end of the bell curve, then report from that point forward that they are winning and winning and winning some more. Instead of saying, "Gee, I made this amount of money at a negative game, so it must be that I'm at the far end of distribution. I better stop," they continue to report winnings, slapping end of bell curve results onto end of bell curve results on and on. And there's always an implication if not an explication of some personal skills or attributes that enable them to do so. In Mdawg's case, it's an odd implied "reading of the cards" along with some implied advantage for being able to bang large sums into play over and over, as opposed to the proletariat, who can't muster the same sums. Rob.Singer goes with something he calls the "human factor," which reminds me of the Seinfeld "Human Fund." No definition is provided of the "human factor," of course, but ostensibly it does something.
Sports handicapping is a game of opinion, so there are no real math boundaries to it, but despite that, nobody wins more than 60% of their games lifetime. It just doesn't happen. Actual math-boundary casino games have much more predictable outcomes. The odds against MDawg doing what he originally claimed are so long that they can, from a practical standpoint, be dismissed out of hand.
Should posters protect "the public" from thinking they can do what MDawg claims he did? Yeah, I think so. If USA Today allowed sports services to post claims of 85% and 90% winners when it was first published, I think that suggests that Americans fall for a lot of stuff. And I can't say I think they've gotten any wiser over the years.
