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Let's just say, this Minority, has a wide "Span," of people. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Don't keep us in suspense: do tell: Is itQuote:
Originally Posted by Tasha
midgets and dwarves?
lisping, left-handed Lakota lesbians?
white punks on dope?
surly Samoans?
God help us, it can't be a yeshiva full of jacked-up Jews?
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcapMr Redeitz aout your methods,Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
What was your estimated EV difference middling the props vs just betting them on straight bets at 4%. Or alternatively, you esimate that on an extra time invested per hour basis?
I have no idea, as this is not coin flipping so those kinds of estimates have very little ongoing real-world value. None of the props in a SB should be considered stand-alone random events. "EV" should not be attached to non-random estimates if the phrase "my opinion of the EV" or simply "my opinion" can be substituted with no change in the meaning of the phrase.
Since the range of sports books one would survey would have a direct effect on the likelihood of middling a prop, with what I estimate to be diminishing returns once you check the half dozen or so most likely to be outliers, there would be no precise answer. Ergo, the phrase should be "my personal opinion" as opposed to "the EV."
Since the props themselves can change radically (and some have in past Super Bowls, such as Kurt Warner's passing yards as one famous example) over the course of two weeks, there is limited "mathematical precision" to this. It's mainly heuristics.
If I had it to do again, I probably wouldn't put in that amount of time for that amount of money. It was a grind that had to re-reviewed every day and then every few hours as kickoff approached. It was a unique event. I had to blow 25K and I didn't like the game or total, plus many of the props had $500 limits, so I had to bet a boatload of them to use up the 25K. I was determined, however, to be thorough and semi-precise and not lazy. Part of my motivation is that my plays were public on the site where I won it, so I wanted to set a good example of betting the appropriate props at the best numbers.
The outcome was pretty funny. The only thing I middled was a "longest punt" prop, which brought me back to break even on the 25K investment, so I didn't actually lose the amount of the cumulative juice.
One quick recent note. I have to blow some bonuses and contest winnings this week, so I spent a couple of hours surveying props and decided to blow half of them on a Hopkins middle attempt. I went Over 11 1/2 rec yards for a unit and Under 13 1/2 for half a unit. I meant to launch more, but when I circled back to the original site, the 11 1/2 had gone to 12 1/2, so I didn't add to the wager.
I don't really like making spontaneous decisions, so this prop-middling isn't my cup of tea.
Maybe you'd be in better spot financially if you didn't look at your bankroll as something you needed to blow. Then going and finding what you feel are best bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
There is some basic methodology you could apply to your betting and perhaps turn it all around. Dm me for further instruction if you'd like.
That's a good one. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by TashaLet's just say, this Minority, has a wide "Span," of people. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVDon't keep us in suspense: do tell: Is itQuote:
Originally Posted by Tasha
midgets and dwarves?
lisping, left-handed Lakota lesbians?
white punks on dope?
surly Samoans?
God help us, it can't be a yeshiva full of jacked-up Jews?
But can you really even call them a Minority given that most of Miami spans that particular ethnicity?
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionMaybe you'd be in better spot financially if you didn't look at your bankroll as something you needed to blow. Then going and finding what you feel are best bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
There is some basic methodology you could apply to your betting and perhaps turn it all around. Dm me for further instruction if you'd like.
You're correct, of course. After three losing weeks this football season, I need to turn things around in a hurry. Otherwise I might wind up in a higher tax bracket.
I appreciate your input and am looking forward to any and all advice. Please don't be shy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z66TbXzro2Y
Note: I have expiring bonuses (Feb 9 and 20). Since 80-some percent of my wagering is college football, anything else is more or less wagering-while-ignorant. While I would like to believe I have some insight and expertise in things other than football, that is not the case, so I'll be launching a couple of middles. Not going to use an electron microscope to convince myself I have an edge in something I know nothing about.
You know
Well, they are a Minority. ;) When I was a child, we had about 30 students in my class. About 26 of us were BLACK. I thought Black people were the Majority since MOST of my class was Black. I was surprised to find out that Black people were actually a MINORITY, not the MAJORITY.Quote:
Originally Posted by pinchingyourballsThat's a good one. :DQuote:
Originally Posted by TashaLet's just say, this Minority, has a wide "Span," of people. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
But can you really even call them a Minority given that most of Miami spans that particular ethnicity?
The Super Bowl party situation is the big issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by jpfromla
This has become monetized in most venues, and there are not a lot of public viewing areas for free. If you want to go to a party, most are over $100/pp unless you were invited due to casino play.
Most people are probably just looking at this and saying, "I'd rather just stay home and watch it on the big screen with my friends."
This shit is where Vegas drops the ball. There should be a real effort to allow the public to watch the Super Bowl together for free, in various venues around town, and then count on making money from them before/after the game.
But the accountants think everything has to be immediately monetized nowadays.
I also when I first read the first lives of your post thought,"People can just watch the game at home in a private and free party," I continued reading and you did mention that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThe Super Bowl party situation is the big issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by jpfromla
This has become monetized in most venues, and there are not a lot of public viewing areas for free. If you want to go to a party, most are over $100/pp unless you were invited due to casino play.
Most people are probably just looking at this and saying, "I'd rather just stay home and watch it on the big screen with my friends."
This shit is where Vegas drops the ball. There should be a real effort to allow the public to watch the Super Bowl together for free, in various venues around town, and then count on making money from them before/after the game.
But the accountants think everything has to be immediately monetized nowadays.
I wouldn’t exactly call Vegas empty right now. It’s a busy weekend but nothing crazy.
Yeah Vegas sounds like a fun place to spend Superbowl weekend.
Hour long plus check in lines. 6/5 Blackjack, 000 roulette, 85% RTP slot machines, 97% Video Poker tables, electronic craps.
Maybe the average football fan is slightly more aware of how bad these all are than the general public at large.
Having to gamble to get into a lower tax bracket is a new one to me. You win. Redietzi s GOAT.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionMaybe you'd be in better spot financially if you didn't look at your bankroll as something you needed to blow. Then going and finding what you feel are best bets?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
There is some basic methodology you could apply to your betting and perhaps turn it all around. Dm me for further instruction if you'd like.
You're correct, of course. After three losing weeks this football season, I need to turn things around in a hurry. Otherwise I might wind up in a higher tax bracket.
I appreciate your input and am looking forward to any and all advice. Please don't be shy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z66TbXzro2Y
Note: I have expiring bonuses (Feb 9 and 20). Since 80-some percent of my wagering is college football, anything else is more or less wagering-while-ignorant. While I would like to believe I have some insight and expertise in things other than football, that is not the case, so I'll be launching a couple of middles. Not going to use an electron microscope to convince myself I have an edge in something I know nothing about.
You know
Actually, this is a VERY exciting SB too. :) Kansas City and Philadelphia Eagles are going head to head and these two Football Teams are two VERY HUGE and highly loved Football Teams, so this one is going to be a VERY good SB too, :) not like the beyond bad Patriots vs Rams from 2019 which is the lowest scoring SB in SB HISTORY. :eek: I feel that KC will win as they are the Favorite, but PE won the SB a few years ago and the PE was the LONGSHOT that year, so you never know. :)
126 Million viewers setting a new record, breaking last years 123+. Once again the moron was wrong and as always, has no fucking clue on anything. But what do you expect from someone that shits on the floor at home and in public. Poor Mammie!Quote:
Originally Posted by Tasha
I really don't know why anyone pays any attention to what an ignorant and completely stupid "person" like her ever says.
Appreciate your comment.Quote:
Originally Posted by TashaI also when I first read the first lives of your post thought,"People can just watch the game at home in a private and free party," I continued reading and you did mention that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffThe Super Bowl party situation is the big issues.Quote:
Originally Posted by jpfromla
This has become monetized in most venues, and there are not a lot of public viewing areas for free. If you want to go to a party, most are over $100/pp unless you were invited due to casino play.
Most people are probably just looking at this and saying, "I'd rather just stay home and watch it on the big screen with my friends."
This shit is where Vegas drops the ball. There should be a real effort to allow the public to watch the Super Bowl together for free, in various venues around town, and then count on making money from them before/after the game.
But the accountants think everything has to be immediately monetized nowadays.
We were all wondering what you were thinking about when you read the first few lines of his post and we are appreciative and our curiosity is satiated now that we know that initially you had the same thought as Dan, but then you confirmed that both of you had the same thought when you completed reading his post.
I believe I speak for all of us when I say these are the types of posts that are very meaningful and that we wish we could see more of.
I can't speak to how crowded or uncrowded Las Vegas was leading up to the Superbowl as I was out of town on a skiing trip last week and returned Saturday night. But Superbowl weekend has always been a big weekend in Vegas.
Several years when I wasn't all that interested in the teams playing, I played blackjack during the game. It was a great time to play as casinos had max tables open, just waiting for the rush after the game ended. But during the game, very uncrowded conditions. You could jump around as much as you wanted.
I was out on the strip partying and drinking after the game. Seemed pretty crowded. Can't speak to table game action. IF Las Vegas was less crowded than usual, I would doubt it had anything to do with the teams playing in the game. There are other factors in play. Like many people in Souther Cal, where a lot of the Vegas holiday traffic comes from, were dealing with other things....like finding a place to live. :rolleyes:
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Originally Posted by ZenKinG
The tribal casinos in Pac NW all have overhead TV's that show sports broadcasts: I assume they showed the SB so patrons could watch while gaming.
It's been awhile since I've been to LV, I don't recall: are there overhead TV's for players to watch sports while gaming on the casino floor in sin city?
Many casinos have screens in the pit with games on. But many also don't. But on Superbowl weekend, there are viewing parties at almost EVERY casino in an area where food is supplied or available. A lot of people are in those area, plus sportsbooks during the game, and flock to the tables (and I presume machines) as soon as the game is over.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
Now a lopsided game like this might not have held people's interest for the full game, so tables and casinos might have started filling up before the game ended. But either way there is a period for a good part of the game that tables were less crowded, with an over abundance of tables open, just waiting for that rush, making for good conditions.
There is also some of this same thing that goes on with really big fight type events. Not as dramatic as the Superbowl, but it can make for good playing conditions during the event.