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I did just figure out the Angels were the ones that beat Pittsburgh in Dan Druff's pick in early May. Later I thought I made money with the Angels and that's not true because they won in the bottom of the 9th costing me about $6,000 in tickets I'd cash if the Angels lost that day.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
We are only 50 games into a 162 game season. Not yet 1/3 of the way. Some teams are just now starting to round into true form. This includes teams like the A''s that got off to a surprisingly good start, as well as your angels and their 8 game win streak. Other teams that got off to a slower than expected start will start to win. Don't read too much into those early results. It is a long season and teams have a way of reverting to form and what was expected of them based on talent.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
One thing I have learned is rather than trying to identify who is going to win certain games and days, just identify the bad teams and fade them most days. If you can't identify teams that are going to be the bad teams on your own, read what other people that really follow the sports, teams and players say. And when a team that is projected to be bad gets off to a surprisingly good start or vice versa, don't be fooled. That is a prime opportunity to fade them.
Maybe that is my blackjack roots, but it is kind of like blackjack and variance associated with blackjack. With enough trials, results will usually get to where they should be.
Here are several teams to keep an eye on IMO. Not winning but an eye on them losing. Minnesota Twins, St Louis Cardinals, SF Giants. All have over-performed what was expected to date. All are 6-9 games over .500. I expect all to be below .500 by seasons end. I have a futures wager that the Twins will NOT make the playoffs. I am not betting against these teams every day, but select days, especially if they are favored, I am fading them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UBQ4noMV68Quote:
Originally Posted by Mdawg
So how did fading these 3 teams work out today?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Balt +110 over (Cardinals) WIN
Detroit -110 over (Giants) WIN
Tampa Bay -115 over (Twins) WIN
Don't worry about missing the boat. There will be many more days like this, as these 3 teams, all with winning records make their push to below .500, maybe even down to .400
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Originally Posted by MDawgAxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.
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Originally Posted by MDawg
Congratulations. The universe has been telling me to look at something else besides gambling and that's what I need to do. Slot AP is very difficult with too many machines tightened up and FP reduced by anti-AP measures.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJSo how did fading these 3 teams work out today?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Balt +110 over (Cardinals) WIN
Detroit -110 over (Giants) WIN
Tampa Bay -115 over (Twins) WIN
Don't worry about missing the boat. There will be many more days like this, as these 3 teams, all with winning records make their push to below .500, maybe even down to .400
Dead money lol. I mean the Angels suck and they need other teams to have bad luck and for the Angels to have good luck.
I bet LA Angels +4000 and greedily +3000. Now they're +5000 and I feel obligated to bet more. I have noticed everyone in the AL West isn't really good and the Mariners have bad pitching right now. Yes, I've been told everyone expects the Mariners to win the division, this might even be an opportunity to bet Houston and not LA Angels. Oh and I bet the A's again without noticing and it's locked in. Only was a small bet with bonus bets and that's why it isn't cancelable.
I'm really impressed with how they're playing at least evening the score tonight in a division game. Houston is super hot right now for sure though. Just noticed Baltimore swept the Mariners and the White Sox and now midway through the A's series, they could be swept. The As do actually stink pretty well. Bogdan pitching well but Kocha name only last 3.1 innings and giving up 4 earned runs. I dont know, the Mariners are ahead of their expected record, but do the Mariners just stink and aren't the Bella Da Bells who always roll on the Angels before now? Houston I figured a better favorite than Seattle. The way my friend described Seattle being expected to win the West, blah, blah, they're pretty good, and said it in such a way I didn't think he believed what he was telling me. Seattle gives up runs almost as bad as the Angels right now with poor pitching stats.
The Angels have used up 4 pitchers so far. This game will hurt the Angels so they better win. Seems like this game will lose them a game down the road or get them back into a losing streak. The Angels coach I noticed expressed some sighing/deep breath moments in these games, but hopefully he will be seeing a change this year. He is just used to being let down and he wants this team to win and not fall apart on their potential. It's kind of a story if a movie, we would only have some hope but not really good clues of what was to come.
Oh Houston has the #1 team pitching right now and the Angels are almost at the bottom as a team. I did not capitalize on Houston when I was suspecting them of dogs becoming favorites. I can't afford long term bets right now. I remembered seeing only +130 and now it's -170 for Houston to win the division, and we may as well say congratulations.
Added later: If LAA beats Seattle tomorrow and Houston wins, they'll both be tied for second in AL West by 4.5 games and both 2.5 games back from the wild card. You probably need two rainouts in NY for LAA to split the series because they're probably good enough to beat the Yankees 2/4 if the game is 6 innings if LAA ahead.
Swept by the Orioles and beat the Yankees in extra innings 1-0. I didn't see a sweep loss and I didn't see any Yankee wins when the Angels were on a bad luck streak. It would be great if they surpass expectations more. The Angels don't have the juice to run through the Yankees 3/4 or 4/4. I suppose Angel long balls give them a chance for more luck even if they don't excel over the Yankees usually. I bet a token amount and the Angels win though.
Anybody check out the results from the "Rocky Road" angle since I mentioned I would not bet against them on the road?
I had a theory about the lines regarding them, but only for the road games, and that theory is holding up thus far. I will keep tabs and announce if I think it's time to abandon the idea.
I did bet on them when they won their 13th. Otherwise I will not be betting much, but I do love baseball. I might even buy a set of baseball cards and catch up. About the Rockies, the odds just don't seem worth it. If it is true they are more likely to win on the road, then their major weakness must be the long ball for your theory to even be worth considering. About the Angels, they have won the series against the Yankees 3/3 with the last game tomorrow and they play Houston in a 3 game series next. I would think the owner would want to take a chance instead of dismantling if the Angels can win 3/4 of their next 4 games. So either sweep the Yankees and win 1 against Houston or lose tomorrow to the Yankees and get 2/3 from Houston. I didn't think the Angels would win a single game against NYY, but Houston is maybe the real world series favorite, idk.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I did just notice the Angels do have one of the best records in MLB against teams over .500. That's weird luck.