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Well I'm 3-2 following your picks. Don't feel bad if they lose. We're all grown adults who can make our own choices. I think your bets are good so I'll follow them. Just do me a favor and don't go losing the next 20 or nothing like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I didn't bet the Brooklyn one, no. I figured I'd only bet the under bets that you make. Tough loss though, you would'a beaten the spread at +3.5 but lost on the ML. =(
Starting in about 20-25 min:
Utah +4
More NBA later
Here's a game well in advance, though not in advance enough, as the line has already moved. But it's still good.
Portland -2
Spurs are missing Green, Parker, Leonard, and Gay. It's basically Pau, Aldridge, and the 7 dwarves. And the game is in Portland.
Here's a game well in advance, though not in advance enough, as the line has already moved. But it's still good.
Portland -2
Spurs are missing Green, Parker, Leonard, and Gay. It's basically Pau, Aldridge, and the 7 dwarves. And the game is in Portland.
Alllllllllllmost 2-0 yesterday. Portland blew 7-point lead very late and ended up winning by 1.
Today two totals (RS's favorite)
Houston under 220
Sac over 199 -115 (199.5 -110 ok)
Sharps are on Houston under, they are neutral on Sac pick
I just got royally screwed in the Houston game.
42 points in the final 5:56 to beat my under by 3.
You read that right.
Even more unbelievable was that this game was NOT CLOSE in the 4th.
This wasn't due to intentional fouling.
There were only 5 points in the final 1:21!
How do 37 points roll in over slightly more than 4.5 minutes?
This has to be one of the bigger screw jobs I've had this year.
Despite the Houston screw job (probably my worst-luck loss of the season, given a late lead), I still went 1-1 as the Sac over covered. Perhaps KewlJ is onto something when he says my overs, while few and far between, tend to be best.
Record now 107-75-2.
Here's an under, starting in about 1.5 hours:
OKC under 205 -115 (204.5 -110 ok)
Probably my only play today. Sharps are on this one. They are also on Miami +4.5, Lakers under 212.5, and Dallas under 215, but I'm not feeling those. The above is the only bet I recommend, at least for now.
Here are picks on the early games. I'll be back later maybe with more.
Washington under 207.5
Detroit under 205
Chicago +4.5
Golden State under 219 -115, 218.5 -110 is ok.
Massive number of people sitting.
Curry/Thompson on GSW, Rivers/Griffin/Gallianari on Clippers.
Wish I didn't add that GS pick, as it didn't come close to winning. 2-2 day. Now 109-78-2.
For those who are a fan of my overs, here are two:
Lakers +2.5
Lakers Over 211
Cleveland Over 223
I hope all your bets win. Lakers ML, ftw.
Can I call it a decent NBA day even when one pick lost spectacularly by almost 40 points?
Well, I went 2-1, so I guess so.
Record now 111-79-2.
Brooklyn under 211
Washington under 218
Perhaps more shortly
Memphis under 204 -115 (203.5 -110 ok)
Memphis +6.5
Looking at Portland under, but not sure yet
Okay... I decided to hit the Portland under, even though it's kinda weird because of Lillard and Davis likely playing but each not at 100%.
Portland Under 220
Almost all of the money has gone on the over this game. If you hate the public, this is the bet for you, because this is super anti-public. Sharps not on this one either way.
One final under...
Golden State under 222
Curry out
Sharps are on a ton of games. Won't bother to list them all, but of my 6 picks, the sharps agree with:
Washington under
Portland under (sharps were on it, then they weren't, now they are again)
Memphis side
Golden state under
They are not with my Memphis under or Brooklyn under, but they are also not against them.
As I mentioned, sharps are on several others tonight which I'm not betting either way.
DD
the thing about golden state is that they are a well disciplined defensive team ....when they turn on the switch. Last game thompson was out so it showed in 120 points from the clips.
So when any major player is out...they have others that can make up those points. Curry doesnt hog the ball like westbrook. The ball gets passed around quite a bit so thompson can get hot, Durant can score an extra 10 points easy, the bench is productive.
This is a real tough road trip with toront and cleveland coming up....so I think they may want this game badly and decide to play some defense. In my opinion the under may be a good bet, not because curry is out(I am sure the man adjusted for that)...but because they havent played great defense in recent games and here is an opportunity to get a win with some difficult teams coming up.If they dont win this game they can be looking at 3 losses in a row. So this is important.....andKerr stresses defense. Milwaukee also stopped their 26 game opening year winning streak(2 years ago) so here they arre again at the scene of the crime.....and i am sure they remember that(thompson was missing that game). I personally dont bet totals with GS because this year I can see they are not taking the regular season as seriously as previous years, with alot of resting of players. And they still have the bad taste of going for the win record 2 years ago and running out of gas against cleveland. So its hard to tell if they are going to give max effort on defense. When they do...they usually hold the opponent under 100....and that makes unders of 220 very doable.
Looking at the scores right now, I be like...
https://youtu.be/HT-mSima3CE
Joking, of course. I told my friend you had good bets and he decided to follow your picks today, too. #HesAJinx
Charlotte +2 (or money line)
also
Washington under 215.5
Yesterday was really tough.
Charlotte was ahead by a small amount for most of the game, then shit the bed in the 4th and lost by 10.
Then even worse, OT fucked my Washington under.
So I went 0-2, which looked like 2-0 at one point, and at least deserved to be 1-1.
Nevertheless, record is now 113-85-2.
This morning, I slept through what would have been a surefire under pick, which would have won by a ton (Milwaukee, which began at 10am PST).
So here are two more picks:
Phoenix +3 (you can get +3.5 -115 on Bovada right now, moneyline of +130 ok, but I'm betting +3)
Minnesota under 212.5
Both picks are sharps approved.
Sharps are also on Portland but I am not endorsing that one.
I'm officially ice cold again.
2-8 in the last 10.
0-2 today. Phoenix got destroyed. Minnesota under had a bad 1st quarter, then a great 2nd, then a great first 4 minutes of the 3rd (to where the pick looked very likely to win), and then horrible from that point forward. It lost by 11.
113-87-2 is now my record. I'm mired in a 15-25 slump since December 31.
EARLY NBA:
Charlotte +3
Game begins 9:35am PST
Was a great run. So to kind of mirror another thread, should you back off a little, analyze where you're going wrong, and regroup, or are you accumulating EV and keep firing even if you keep losing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
When I have a bad streak in horses, I sit back and regroup and try to figure out what I'm doing wrong, if anything. I make sure I'm not weighting one or two factors too much over other factors that I consider. I see if I'm using track bias too heavily, or concentrating on breeding too much, or putting too much weight on one factor rather than using all of my factors.
So what do you do on a cold streak?
That Charlotte pick won.
Also had two other picks posted on my PokerFraudAlert site (I always post them there first, sometimes I forget to repost here).
Here were my two picks, so you know I'm not full of it: https://pokerfraudalert.com/forum/sh...l=1#post738985
They were Golden State under 234.5 and Sac +11.5. Both won, giving me a 3-0 day. This breaks my 4-game losing streak over the prior 2 days.
Anyway... record now 116-87-2
A rare day for me... no totals, and only favorites.
Just call me Mr. Public.
Denver -6
Portland -11
Portland game was a typical backdoor cover. Up 20 points going into the 4th quarter, win by 7. I didn't watch the game, but would guess starters sat most of the 4th quarter. Back door covers are why I almost never lay big points in any sport.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Toronto under 212.5
New Orleans over 219
OKC under 216 (215.5 ok)
Also Utah -4
0-2 on Tuesday with two really brutal beats. Denver was up by 23 and played a horrendous fourth, and only ended up winning the game by 4, thus not covering.
Portland was up by 25, and also fell apart in the 4th, only winning by 7.
Both picks lost in the final minute.
When it came down to it, none of my 4 Wednesday picks were close, though the OKC under was a bit of a sweat until the scoring died in the final 4 minutes.
The New Orleans over was a disaster.
Look at how last night's games went:
New Orleans over: Lost by 32 points
Toronto under: Won by 27.5 points
OKC under: Won by 12 points
Utah side: Won by 11 points
So it was three good picks and one terrible pick. Still a good result, and a nice relief from the horrible double-bad-beat I suffered the day prior.
I may actually be seeing things well again.
Monday was 3-0, Tuesday was 0-2, and Wednesday was 3-1.
However, both Tuesday losses were highly likely wins where two surprising collapses snatched victories from me in the final minute.
Had those two unusual collapses not occurred, we would be looking at 8-1 in the past 3 days. Even if I had split them, I would be 7-2 in the past 3.
Small sample, but I've also been hitting wins with a wider margin of victory again, so that's encouraging to see.
Blowout losses do concern me a bit (I just had one last night), but as long as those are infrequent, it's not a big deal.
I did take my 90th loss on Wednesday, and my record stands at 119-90-2.
I told a friend a few days ago, "I think I'm done taking Portland unders."
So of course here's what I'm taking today:
Portland Under 213
Portland -4
That was easy! I only got in on the under though. I don't have that much confidence in your side bets. And especially involving certain teams. Portland and Memphis haven't been good to you. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I don't 'ride' you picks too often, for one I am usually home already when you make your picks. I also am not too interested in watching NBA basketball at night at home (not until the playoffs). So instead on the nights I have wagered, I am harassing Alexa every 5 minutes. "Alexa, what is the score of the Golden state game?" :rolleyes:
The first day I 'rode' some of your picks was the day after one of your 4-1 days and naturally, 'we' lost that day. I have probably only played 14-15 of your picks, but you are on the winning side with me. :) Not betting anything significant though....just fun money. :cool:
Siri is awful at telling the score or who won a game. I don't remember the teams, but a while back I asked Siri who won in a game, and it was something like....
Me: "Hey Siri, what's the score of the Diamondbacks and Rockies game?" (I bet on Rockies, for instance)
Siri: "The game ended 4-5."
Me confused, well, which team won!?
Me: "Hey siri, did the rockies win today?"
Siri: "The rockies nearly defeated the diamonds today, 4-5."
Me thinking, oh that's cool, they barely beat them, nice!
Hold on, that was some weird ass wording....
Me: "Hey Siri, did the diamondbacks win today?"
Siri: "The diamondbacks nearly lost to the rockies today, 4-5."
Me again, they nearly lost. Okay, so they barely lost 4-5, niiiice!
Hmmm....something doesn't seem right. "Nearly lost" should mean they almost lost, not that they barely lost....I think? But then again, why would siri tell me a team NEARLY lost when she can just say THEY LOST.????
*Phone buzzes*
Me: "Hey siri, read me a text message."
Siri: "You have a message from XYZ. It says, 'Omg lulz the rockets and diamondfags game, so close, z0mg, dafaq. wowww!' Would you like to respond?"
Me: "Yes."
*Phone beeps, to start recording my message.*
Me: "Watt de Fuq haven't. Am driven two CA see now hey fuck you bastard i'll kill you you damn piece of shit get the hell off the road if you're gonna driven like that sorry am driven and sum idiot driver was---"
[Translates to the following because Siri is retarded and can't figure out what words I'm saying so she pretty much just makes shit up: "What the fuck happened, I'm driving to a casino and <insert RS yelling at other people while driving>, sorry I'm driving and this some idiot driver was---" *gets cut off by siri's timer because she's a bitch and doesn't let you send long messages with voice to text*]
*Phone beeps*
Siri: "Are you ready to send your message?"
Me: "Yeah sure, go ahead. YES."
Me: "Hey Siri text XYZ"
Waits for phone to beep so I can start saying my message.
No beep happens....hmmm...maybe she didn't hear me....
Me: "Hey siri, text XYZ."
*Phone beeps*
Me: "did we win? siri's being a bitch."
Phone beeps
Siri: "Are you ready to send your message, 'Hey Siri, text XYZ, did we win, siri's being a bitch.' YES or NO?"
Me: "Yes"
Phone buzzles
Me: "hey siri, read me a text message."
Siri: "you have a new message from XYZ, would you like to hear it?"
Me: "YES. READ MESSAGE!"
Siri: "Okay, good bye."
Me: "wtf?"
Me: "Hey siri, read me a text message."
Siri: "You have a new message from XYZ, it says....."
Me concentrating on driving because now another asshole without his lights on [it's night time] just cut me off, so I'm not paying attention to siri.
Siri: "Would you like to respond?"
Me: "HOLY SHIT SERIOUSLY? GOOD FUCKING YARD, I just wanna know if the rockets won or lost....damn"
.
.
.
.
Siri: "Starting directions to...."
Me: "Hey Siri.....kill yourself."
Siri is garbage.
Amazon Alexa, however, is pretty much what Siri was suppsoed to be.
I've definitely had "sides" trouble with Cleveland, Portland, and Memphis.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThat was easy! I only got in on the under though. I don't have that much confidence in your side bets. And especially involving certain teams. Portland and Memphis haven't been good to you. ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I don't 'ride' you picks too often, for one I am usually home already when you make your picks. I also am not too interested in watching NBA basketball at night at home (not until the playoffs). So instead on the nights I have wagered, I am harassing Alexa every 5 minutes. "Alexa, what is the score of the Golden state game?" :rolleyes:
The first day I 'rode' some of your picks was the day after one of your 4-1 days and naturally, 'we' lost that day. I have probably only played 14-15 of your picks, but you are on the winning side with me. :) Not betting anything significant though....just fun money. :cool:
On the flip side, it seems I've won nearly every pick I've made (side or total) involving the Knicks.
San Antonio +6 (you can get 6.5 -115 on Bovada on certain accounts)
San Antonio under 204
Brooklyn +3.5 -115 (+3 ok)
Sacramento under 202
More later possibly
San Antonio starting in 15-20 min
Hope you guys bet.
4-0, record up to 125-90-2.
Interesting fact:
I'm 12-3 in past 15, but would be 14-1 (!!) if those two blowout games didn't get screwed by last minute comebacks a few days ago.
Most of the 12 wins have been by wide margins, especially the unders.
Congrats to you Dan. I got 1, the Sac under. I missed the earlier under and am not playing your sides currently. A few more days like this and I might. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
No offense but it is time to stop crying about those two back door covers. That is a risk of laying big points (in any sport). Yeah ya got screwed. You can mention once or twice. Three times is crying a bit to much. :p
I admit that losing a -11 backdoor cover isn't all too unusual, though still it sucks when you have a 25-point lead in the 3rd quarter and it doesn't get there.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJCongrats to you Dan. I got 1, the Sac under. I missed the earlier under and am not playing your sides currently. A few more days like this and I might. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
No offense but it is time to stop crying about those two back door covers. That is a risk of laying big points (in any sport). Yeah ya got screwed. You can mention once or twice. Three times is crying a bit to much. :p
However, the -6 isn't a large number of points to lay, and losing that when my team was up by 23 was pretty maddening.
Losing them BOTH in one night was further maddening.
You actually talk to Siri or is this a joke? I am only 42 but I certainly can't get into this talking to my phone and having it talk back to me. I find it easier to just push a button but I like pushing buttons. I thought I would like a house that was voice activated but now that they actually have it I find that I don't want anything to do with it.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
Not really feeling anything for the two early games.
I'll be back a little later, closer to the night games, to post picks on the others.
Early evening games:
Houston +3 -105
Houston under 236.5 (236 ok) *** (see below)
Milwaukee +7 (no Antetokounmpo, no Reddick)
*** The Houston under pick is a "feel" pick, based upon my belief that totals like 236 are too damn high. This was pick was not made with my usual analytics. I have a belief (which is not yet verified in any way) that such a total is +EV to fire under in standard NBA games, simply due to the fact that it is very difficult to maintain such a high scoring pace for an entire 48 minute game. However, if you wish to stick to picks made through my usual strategy, you should skip this one. The Houston side was made through my usual strategies.
Also, as the Bucks are missing Antetokounmpo today, while I like that side anyway (and my numbers led me to it), beware that this game is a bit unpredictable, so there's a reasonable chance that the Bucks will get blown out.
Also, for whatever reason, the sharps are leaning AGAINST my Houston pick today, which is very rare. Almost all of my picks end up where the sharps are either for them or neutral towards them.
So this is kind of a strange day so far.
You've been warned.
I might make more picks on the final games later.
Early evening games:
Houston +3 -105
Houston under 236.5 (236 ok) *** (see below)
Milwaukee +7 (no Antetokounmpo, no Reddick)
*** The Houston under pick is a "feel" pick, based upon my belief that totals like 236 are too damn high. This was pick was not made with my usual analytics. I have a belief (which is not yet verified in any way) that such a total is +EV to fire under in standard NBA games, simply due to the fact that it is very difficult to maintain such a high scoring pace for an entire 48 minute game. However, if you wish to stick to picks made through my usual strategy, you should skip this one. The Houston side was made through my usual strategies.
Also, as the Bucks are missing Antetokounmpo today, while I like that side anyway (and my numbers led me to it), beware that this game is a bit unpredictable, so there's a reasonable chance that the Bucks will get blown out.
Also, for whatever reason, the sharps are leaning AGAINST my Houston pick today, which is very rare. Almost all of my picks end up where the sharps are either for them or neutral towards them.
So this is kind of a strange day so far.
You've been warned.
I might make more picks on the final games later.
Super last minute:
Clippers under 213
Posted Dallas +5.5 but decided to take it back. Not betting it.
Was up for about 2 min. Hopefully none of you bet it.
True story with the Clippers... I totally forgot about it, then ran down to bet it in the final minutes. Wish I forgot. What a disaster that was.
2-2 day thanks to Houston, and I move to 127-92-2.
Oh, and regarding the last-minute Dallas pick I posted and retracted (which I don't think anyone bet, fortunately, and I didn't either), I made a critical error which, if anything, meant I should have picked the other way.
But it was so last minute that I didn't have time to do anything but erase the post and not bet it myself.
It's losing by 15 so looks like that was a good decision. If I had more time, I actually would have gone with Portland, but either way, whatever... it's a no-pick/no-bet.
Detroit over 209 (its -105 on Bovada right now)
Might have one more on last game later.
Dan, a point of info based on the reality of actual betting
when you bet....lets say 4 bets on a day and go 2-2 .....that is a loss assuming you bet the same units on each. However in reality do you treat each bet totally equal financially, or do you sometimes weigh more units on one over the other.
I dont expect such detal when you post your picks....I was just wondering you philosophy
Atlanta +2.5 (or moneyline)
That's the first pick.
Still analyzing the 5pm PST and later games (of which there are many)
I almost always bet equally.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
You are correct that 2-2 is not an even day, and is a small loss due to the house vig.
I do sometimes place moneyline bets on the small favorites instead of the spread, but I am posting spread bets here and counting the spread, not the moneyline, for my record.
understood....for accounting purposes here that the way to do it
More:
Memphis +3.5 (moneyline of +140 ok)
Houston under 212.5
Still may post more
Portland +3 -105
Portland under 210.5
That's all. Only 5 picks.
thoughts on basketball since I started betting:
playing is a lot more fun then watching
takes like 30 min to watch the last 2 minutes of the game
fouling being a strategy is stupid
betting unders, even though it's more advantageous then the over takes years off my life
then dont bet college BB, because with 18 second left and being down by 10, college teams will still foul..whereas if the pros are down by 7 with18 seconds left they will give up.
4-0-1 day.
Soooooo close to 5-0. Atlanta won EASILY, Houston under won EASILY, Memphis was looking bad for most of the game, but roared back in the 4th and won outright.
Came down to the two Portland picks.
Under was on pace to win the whole game, though it was possible to lose. Slow 4th made under a certainty unless OT came. Portland had a 95-90 lead late, but blew it, and fell down 102-99 with under 7 seconds left. Fortunately they only chose to make a 2-pointer, taking it to 102-101, lessening the OT possibility. Then the fouled Denver intentionally (obviously), and sadly Denver hit both FTs. That made it 104-101, Portland had to heave it and shoot with 1.8 seconds left, and they didn't come close, so that was the final, and the Portland +3 tied while the under covered.
On a side note, I chose to make a full moneyline bet on Atlanta +131, and no spread bet. It won easily.
I chose to make a half moneyline +140/half spread bet on Memphis. It had to come back and looked bad for much of the game, but it won outright.
I chose to make a full spread bet on Portland, and no moneyline.
All three were roughly the same spread, but Portland I had the least faith in winning outright, whereas Atlanta I had the most faith.
I ended up being 100% correct on those assessments.
Record now 131-93-3. This was just my 3rd tie in 227 picks.
I'm 18-6-1 in the past 8 days (January 15-22). I've finally erased the 2-week slump from December 31-January 14. I was 15-25 in that stretch, following a 98-62-2 record through Dec 30. That 15-25 stretch was by far my worst slump of the season, where I had previously avoided protracted slumps. However, thanks to this recent run, I'm now 33-31-1 since December 31, which by itself isn't impressive, but was a great comeback given how things were going.
I rarely watch games I bet, so luckily I don't worry about what happens during the game, just after. If I'm bored I'll fire up a stream. I do watch a lot of football though.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
Dan Druff, are you checking your lines against Pinnacle? I did that for some of yours and you were on the right side for whichever bets I saw you made.
I have 3 sportsbooks where I bet. I always choose the best line, obviously.Quote:
Originally Posted by DJatcI rarely watch games I bet, so luckily I don't worry about what happens during the game, just after. If I'm bored I'll fire up a stream. I do watch a lot of football though.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
Dan Druff, are you checking your lines against Pinnacle? I did that for some of yours and you were on the right side for whichever bets I saw you made.
That's the line I will post, but I will note if it's better at the particular book I'm betting on, sometimes even stating that a slightly worse line is "ok".
When handicapping, I look at a lot of books and see their activities with line movement and betting patterns.
Sacramento under 211.5 (211 ok)
Starts in about 30 min
More shortly
Brooklyn under 211 -113 (210.5 ok)
Lakers under 207.5
Lakers +5 -105 (you can get +5.5 -115 on some Bovada accounts)
Detroit under 199.5 (starting very soon)
Boston under 217 (216.5 ok -- starting at 7:30 pst)
you know you're going well when OT hits and you still get the under. congrats
Last night we had one solid gold under, which finished regulation covering by 21.5 points -- only to run into OT. The Detroit game finished 89-89, but OT managed just 15 points, keeping the under fortunately (and deservedly) intact.
The Boston under was close the whole way, bouncing back and forth between on pace to win and lose, though never too far in either direction.
It squeaked by when the total finished at 215, though those who bet close to game time got a worse line than that (it closed at 213.5 on most books).
However, most of the way you were getting 217 or 216.5 since I posted it, so if you bet it, you probably won.
The 2-0 day takes me to 133-93-3 overall, putting me 40 games over .500 for the first time this season.
More interestingly, it leaves me at 22-8-1 in the past 9 days, with many of those 22 covering easily.
Washington +5 -105 (may want to drop some on moneyline +180)
Perhaps more shortly
Golden State under 228 (227.5 ok)
New York under 211
Does this forum have text-message-alerts for when you post your bets?
Kings ML FTW
Be glad you missed my picks yesterday.
They went 0-3.
Early NBA (more later probably):
Atlanta +7 (starting 30 min)
Utah +8 (starting 70 min)
Here's something you rarely see from me: A road favorite.
Houston -4.5
San Antonio under 200
Dallas +2 -115 (or +105 or better moneyline)
That's it. 5 picks.
Hopefully goes better than yesterday.
Atlanta game really got screwed. Was up 95-90 late, and then 110-109.
12-0 run for Charlotte in the final 2:59 made the final 121-110, and my +7 didn't cover.
The others:
Utah: Won outright
Houston: Lost outright, despite coming back from 20 down
San Antonio under: Will win
Dallas: Will lose
2-3 puts me at 136-99-3 for the year.
Rough last two days, going 2-6 combined after a 22-8-1 run.
Here's my one pick so far:
Detroit +3.5 (or moneyline +145 or better)
Game starts in about 45 min.
More later.
Detroit sucks.
One more for tonight:
Minnesota under 216
Someone came to me recently and said, "Todd, no wonder you're shitting the bed over the last few days with the NBA. Your talent lies with NBA unders, not with sides. Look at the last 2 days. You're 2-0 with unders, and 1-4 with sides."
Point taken.
Here you go:
Lakers under 217
OKC under 214 -105
NOTE: I predict that OKC under will go up to 214.5 or 215 before game time. So you may want to wait on placing this one. Game starts 3:05pm PST.
so far in this season you have an amazingly good record by picking sides and totals. Sometime you have to lose in order to win. So maybe by betting the sides you bet less totals. Now if you specifically seek out totals you may over pick games....selecting more totals in order to make up for the sides you dont bet. Be careful. Betting is a fragile thing when u are on an overall good streak. Streaks are bound to come to an end anyway....so do what you think is best. Advice on how to change your betting pattern is a dime a dozen.
LOL -- if I'm sitting 30-some games over .500 and somebody gives me advice on what I should do -- believe me, that person not only isn't getting any more plays. I'm going to have to make sure nobody overheard him giving the advice because I don't want his legs broken due to a lack of respect. Actually, since what I do is 90% college football, I'm never 30 games over .500 in a season (well, twice in 40 years) -- to put things in perspective
Now I can see advice like, "Well, it's All-Star time -- maybe back off for a week or two," or "reduce the amounts per game for a stretch of the calendar" or something like that. But in terms of actually suggesting what I should be taking -- if I'm 30-some over .500, I'd quietly advise that maybe that person should branch out into brain surgery and cryptocurrency speculation while he conquers the world.
ICE COLD WARNING: I AM 3-9 IN PAST 12 PICKS
Charlotte +2.5 -105 (+2 ok, but +3 -115 exists on Bovada for certain accounts)
Charlotte under 211.5 (211 ok)
More later.
I think that's going to be it, folks.
Was considering Philly under and Miami side, but passing on both.
Please, please, please never bet against OKC when they're super hot.
Oh, wait
Washington +4.5 -115 (Bovada) -- 3.5 -110 or 4 ok
This is one of those lines which "pops" at the last minute in order to bring disproportionate action back the other way. It was +3 just a short time ago.
Starts in 15-20 min
John Wall is out, btw.
Brooklyn +5.5 (might want to put some on moneyline +200)
Starts 15-20 min