Anyway...
at Arizona (Medlen) +178 vs Houston (g. Cole)
Starts 6:40 P
Still looking at Angels
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Anyway...
at Arizona (Medlen) +178 vs Houston (g. Cole)
Starts 6:40 P
Still looking at Angels
Looks like I shoulda passed with the public Braves under and gone with the non-public Cubs under.
Oh well.
Hopefully Reds under holds.
Decided to skip the Angels game. Done for the night.
Go Dbacks
1-2 yesterday
Here's two same game picks, starting at 1:15pm PDT:
Detroit (J. Zimmerman) +140 at Kansas City (Hammel)
Detroit/KC - Under 9.5 -120
I hesitated hitting "bet" on the under when it was -115 and it moved to -120 seconds later. So annoying.
Maybe more picks later
Next games up:
at White Sox (H. Santiago) -1.5 +215 vs. Minnesota (Lynn)
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Cincinnati (Mahle) - Under 8.5 -110
Starting at 4:10 PDT
One more:
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Texas (Hamels) - Under 9 +101
Starts 5:05 PT
Won the first two Detroit-related picks, though the +140 side was razor thin close (thanks to 2 errors on routine plays by the Tigers).
TOTAL ON 5/2: 34-29-2, +7.188 units
5/3:
*GAME 2* Toronto (Biagini) at Cleveland (Plutko) - Under 10 -105 - LOST -1
TOTAL: 0-1, -1 units
5/4:
Miami (W. Chen) at Cincinnati (Romano) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
San Francisco (Stratton) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 9 -105 - LOST -1
at Arizona (Medlen) +178 vs Houston (G. Cole) - LOST -1
TOTAL: 1-2, -1.130 units
5/5:
Detroit (J. Zimmerman) +140 at Kansas City (Hammel) - WON +1.40
Detroit/KC - Under 9.5 -120 - WON +0.833
at White Sox (H. Santiago) -1.5 +215 vs. Minnesota (Lynn) - LOST -1
Miami (Caleb Smith) at Cincinnati (Mahle) - Under 8.5 -105 - WON +0.909
Boston (E. Rodriguez) at Texas (Hamels) - Under 9 +101 - LOST -1
TOTAL: 3-2, +1.142 units
TOTAL 5/3-5/5: 4-5, -0.988 units
GRAND TOTAL: 38-34, +6.200 units
Overs: 1-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 23-17-2
Sides: 12-13
I didn't realize this before, but Dan, are you betting exact 1 unit on everything, like always betting $100? I usually just bet a unit if it's the dog and enough to win a unit if it's a favorite.
I am always betting between 1 and 1.1 units.
If it's a dog, I bet 1 unit.
If it's a favorite, I will bet up to 1.1 units, depending upon the line. So if it's something like -140, I will just win substantially less than a unit.
I prefer to do this way so I don't get my ass handed to me if I bet a favorite and it doesn't win.
But since I don't bet many big favorites (in fact, I don't think I've done any yet), this doesn't really affect much.
Last-minute bet on 10:10am game:
Toronto (M. Estrada) at Tampa (Archer) - Under 8 -110
There were 3 "Trapper John" games today.
One was this one -- under 8 with two pitchers who had terrible records. Final score 2-1. Ding!
The second was Pittsburgh +112 on the road at Milwaukee. Crappy Chad Kuhl was up against the surprisingly effective Chase Anderson. So you can get a slight dog on Kuhl on the road against a better Milwaukee team and pitcher? Huh? Indeed, the Pirates are up 9-0. Considered this one, but ended up skipping it.
The last one was the under on Oakland/Baltimore. Featuring the bad Andrew Triggs versus the horrendous (9.64 ERA) Alex Cobb. It's 1-0 in the 3rd right now.
Three games which would appear to be obvious choices to the casual bettor (two overs and a side bet on Pittsburgh), and two decisive losses plus one on pace to lose.
Betting MLB baseball, everyone.
Anyway, I'll take my 1-0 day and be done.
Picked up +0.909 units today.
GRAND TOTAL: 39-34-2, +7.109 units
Overs: 1-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 24-17-2
Sides: 12-13
Mets (Conlon) at Cincinnati (Bailey) - Under 9.5 -106
Public money right now is very much on the over.
Starts 4:10pm PDT
I have to do this... out of principle...
Boston (Pomeranz) +205 at Yankees (Severino)
And while we're being contrarian...
Mets (Vargas) at Cincinnati (L. Castillo) - Under 9.5 -123
Both starting very shortly.
Three more:
at White Sox (Giolito) +132 vs. Pittsburgh (Nova)
White Sox/Pittsburgh - Over 9 -115 (you can get this line on Bovada, it's -125 to -130 elsewhere)
Detroit (Fiers) at Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -117
Starting at around 5:05pm.
Early game.. an under in.... Colorado?!
Angels (Barria) at Colorado (T. Anderson) - Under 12 +102
Easy cover with the Rockies.
I'll share a secret with you guys.
The Rockies can't hit.
This isn't the Rockies you've grown to know and love.
Even in Coors they are struggling to score, and their pitching has also improved.
Not to say that you should keep firing Coors Field unders, but I'm saying that it's not the complete crapshoot it was in prior years.
The Padres have scored just 2 fewer runs than the Rockies so far.
Okay here's a last minute pick for a 4:05pm PDT game:
San Francisco (Stratton) at Philadelphia (Pivetta) - Under 8.5 -105
Nothing today for me. Probably have some tomorrow.
I changed my mind.
One pick tonight, involving the Dodgers:
Cincinnati (Mahle) at Dodgers (Buehler) - Under 7.5 -110
Battle of two young pitchers with a lot of upside. Also a cool night at Dodger Stadium where the ball doesn't fly much.
Didn't want to see the Dodgers losing, but at least it helped my under cover.
Here's my record:
As of 5/6: 39-34-2, +7.109 units
5/7:
Mets (Conlon) at Cincinnati (Bailey) - Under 9.5 -106 - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/7: 0-1, -1 units
5/8:
Boston (Pomeranz) +205 at Yankees (Severino) - LOST -1
Mets (Vargas) at Cincinnati (L. Castillo) - Under 9.5 -123 - WON +0.813
at White Sox (Giolito) +132 vs. Pittsburgh (Nova) - LOST -1
White Sox/Pittsburgh - Over 9 -115 - WON +0.870
Detroit (Fiers) at Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -117 - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/8: 2-3, -1.317 units
5/9:
Angels (Barria) at Colorado (T. Anderson) - Under 12 +102 - WON +1.020
San Francisco (Stratton) at Philadelphia (Pivetta) - Under 8.5 -105 - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/9: 1-1, +0.020 units
5/10:
Cincinnati (Mahle) at Dodgers (Buehler) - Under 7.5 -110 - WON +0.909
TOTAL 5/10: 1-0. +0.909 units
TOTAL 5/7-5/10:
4-5, -1.388 units
GRAND TOTAL:
43-39-2, +5.721 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 27-20-2
Sides: 12-15
Milwaukee (Woodruff) at Colorado - Under 11.5 -110
at San Diego (Lauer) +127 vs. St. Louis (L. Weaver)
Two blowout losses yesterday.
Here's a last minute home dog:
**GAME 1** at Detroit (Boyd) +134 vs. Seattle (M. Gonzalez)
Hopefully some of you got in that Detroit pick, as it won (albeit barely, thanks to 9th inning drama).
Here is a night game, in the same vein of the blowout Padres pick yesterday which lost:
at San Diego (T. Ross) +107 vs. St. Louis (Wacha)
No picks today.
Through 5/10: 43-39-2, +5.721 units
5/11:
Milwaukee (Woodruff) at Colorado - Under 11.5 -110 LOST -1
at San Diego (Lauer) +127 vs. St. Louis (L. Weaver) - LOST -1
Total 5/11: 0-2, -2.0 units
5/12:
**GAME 1** at Detroit (Boyd) +134 vs. Seattle (M. Gonzalez) - WON +1.340
at San Diego (T. Ross) +107 vs. St. Louis (Wacha) - WON +1.070
Total 5/12: 2-0, +2.410 units
5/13:
NONE
TOTAL 5/11-5/1: 2-2, +0.410
GRAND TOTAL: 45-41. +6.131 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 27-21-2
Sides: 14-16
Nothing on the early MLB games.
Might go with the Angels under tonight (starting after 7pm PDT), but right now I'm still examining it.
Probably gonna skip the Angels under tonight, again probably leaving me with no picks today.
Will be the first time in 2018 since I started betting this MLB season that I am going 2 days in a row with no picks.
Early MLB game:
at San Diego (Lyles) -104 vs. Colorado (G. Marquez)
Rockies have a thin lineup, missing LeMahieu (DL) and Blackmon (rest).
Lyles is off to a surprisingly good start this year (mostly in relief, but he's traditionally a starter), and will be facing his former team.
Marquez has bad numbers, but has actually performed well on the road, as is sometimes the case for Rockies pitchers. (I'm mentioning this because betting against him here isn't the no-brainer you might think it is.) Still, I believe this will be a Padres win.
I'll throw this pick in, too, even though I hate paying this price for a totals pick.
Colorado/SD (see above post for details) - under 7.5 -125
Record keeping:
at San Diego (Lyles) -104 vs. Colorado (G. Marquez) - WON +0.962 units
San Diego/Colorado - Under 7.5 -125 - WON +0.800 units
TOTAL 5/15: 2-0, +1.762 units
GRAND TOTAL: 47-41-2, +7.893 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 28-21-2
Sides: 15-16 (winning record in units)
For those wondering, my MLB record so far is equivalent to hitting about 57% of -110 NBA spread games.
So it's going pretty well after 90 picks. I've made a few adjustments already, which is part of the reason you're seeing fewer picks per day recently.
Several early MLB games today.
Here's one starting at 10:10am PDT.
Cleveland (Bauer) at Detroit (Carpenter) - Under 9 -120
May have another around noon.
Was considering the Texas under, but decided against it.
No more picks until perhaps the later (4pm PDT) games, which I'll revisit after 3pm.
Should have taken Texas under, as that covered.
But so did the Cleveland under, making it my 5th win in a row.
Record keeping:
Cleveland (Bauer) at Detroit (Carpenter) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
GRAND TOTAL: 48-41-2, +8.726 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 29-21-2
Sides: 15-16 (winning record in units)
Only one pick tonight, and it's a night game.
Colorado (Bettis) +127 at San Francisco (Samardzija)
Bettis gave up 7 ER last time out, but look more closely. In his 5 road starts this year (i.e. away from Coors), he has give up 0-2 ER each time, and looked great. Two of his three home starts have been bad.
Samardzija has been bad all around, and has been bombed in 3 of his 5 starts this year, holding an ERA near 7 and a bad WHIP as well.
Rockies win in 12!
Record keeping:
Colorado (Bettis) +127 at San Francisco (Samardzija) - WON +1.270
GRAND TOTAL: 49-41-2, +9.996 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 29-21-2
Sides: 16-16 (winning record in units)
I'm now a hair under 10 units in the black, a season-high. My last loss was 6 days ago on Friday, when I went 0-2.
Good stuff, Dan.
I'm sure I've asked this before, or at least I've thought of asking it - sorry if I'm repeating myself or you've answered this already....but do you bet ACTION vs ACTION, PITCHER vs PITCHER, or something else? I don't check often enough to verify how likely/unlikely it is for the listed starter to not start. I've just always bet A vs A, but now that I think of it, it probably makes the most sense to bet P vs P, since (I'd imagine?) a large part of what makes the lines is who the starting pitchers are.
I bet listed pitcher. As you said, it's a huge part of the reason for the bet.Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
No picks yet.
Looking at:
St. Louis moneyline
KC moneyline
Tampa Bay under
I'll be back in about 4 hours with this.
My win streak is likely over today, as I have 4 picks, including 2 fairly big dogs.
3 starting very soon:
at Kansas City (Junis) +171 vs. Yankees (Sabathia)
Kansas City/Yankees - Under 9 +105
Cleveland (Clevinger) +152 at Houston (Morton)
And one later:
Colorado (Freeland) at San Francisco (Holland) - Under 8.5 -120
I took a fair amount of doggos today and so far looking good.
Yeah took 2 of the early 3, and SF under looking fairly good right now.
I was going to also do Cardinals -115 but my friend talked me out of it. Of course they're up 5-0.
Lost my first game in a week today, but I'm still 9-1 since May 12.
at Kansas City (Junis) +171 vs. Yankees (Sabathia) - WON +1.710
Kansas City/Yankees - Under 9 +105 - WON +1.050
Cleveland (Clevinger) +152 at Houston (Morton) - LOST -1
Colorado (Freeland) at San Francisco (Holland) - Under 8.5 -120 - WON +0.833
Total 5/18: 3-1, +2.593 units
GRAND TOTAL: 52-42-2, +12.589 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 31-21-2
Sides: 17-17 (winning record in units)
Excellent job, Dan. It's very difficult to beat a "window" sport. You're being selective, but firing at different kinds of plays. Very impressive.
Starts very soon (10:10am)
at Cincinnati (L. Castillo) +118 vs. Cubs (Hendricks)
11 games starting after 4pm PDT. Will be back closer to that with more (probably).
Picked up a win on Cincy in extras.
They were up 4-2 in the 8th, and blew the lead, mostly thanks to Iglesias melting down after hating some questionable calls on balls. Then they won in the 12th thanks to a bases loaded walk. LOL
I've been on the fence on a lot of games, but ended up deciding to skip all of them. Just too many reasons not to pick every play I considered.
So maybe I'll change my mind, but for right now, that's it for the day.
10-1 since May 13th, after scoring this win:
at Cincinnati (L. Castillo) +118 vs. Cubs (Hendricks) - WON +1.180
... and none of those 11 were big favorites, while some were big/moderate dogs. So this is a nice run.
GRAND TOTAL: 53-42-2, +13.769 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 31-21-2
Moneylines: 18-17 (a good deal ahead in units)
As is often the case on Sundays, I'm having a hard time finding any games I like.
Considering one play for the Cle/Hou game, but that's not til 5pm, so I will look at that again later.
Okay, I do have one wager today.
Cleveland (Carrasco) at Houston (McCullers) - Under 7.5 -115
Starts 5pm PDT
Interestingly, while I haven't kept track of the exact numbers, roughly half my profits in MLB have been through moneylines this year (despite being only 18-17, due to underdogs), and the other half have been through unders. It's very close regarding which has made more money.
If only it were always this easy...
Cleveland (Carrasco) at Houston (McCullers) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870
GRAND TOTAL: 54-42-2, +14.639 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 32-21-2
Sides: 18-17 (a good deal ahead in units)
Now 11-1 in MLB since May 12. I have never won 11 of 12 picks in any sport prior to this. None of these 11 were big favorites, btw.
Thank you. Trying to enjoy this run while it lasts. Obviously will come back to earth at some point, but as long as I keep winning at a decent pace overall, I'll be happy.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
How did you win? Houston won the game 3-1. The way your bet is being placed it is as if you are betting on Cleveland to win the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Think he had the under.
Miami (E. Hernandez) +122 at Mets (Vargas)
Kansas City (I. Kennedy) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 -110
Miami game starting at 4:10pm PDT. St. Louis at 5:15pm.
NOTES:
Jason Vargas has a 13.86 ERA and has looked horrible since returning from the DL. There is no evidence he will pitch capably today. Elieser Hernandez is by no means a great option (he had troubles with walks in the minors this year, and doesn't strike out many), but this is a bet against Vargas and a depleted Mets lineup (Cespedes, Lagares, Frazier all out).
A very high percentage of money bet on the KC/StL total is on the over. So if you want to fade the public, here's your chance.
You must have misunderstood my post. If I list the two teams and don't post a line next to either of them, but have a total listed after (such as "Under 8.5") then it's a total pick.Quote:
Originally Posted by seemoreroyalsHow did you win? Houston won the game 3-1. The way your bet is being placed it is as if you are betting on Cleveland to win the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
So looking at the pics I just posted today, I'm betting Miami +122 and KC under 8.5 -110.
Thank you for clarification.
at Cincinnati (Harvey) +106 vs. Pittsburgh (Taillon)
Detroit (M. Boyd) at Minnesota (Lynn) - Under 9 -120
*** NOTES ***
Minnesota game is a bit weird, line-wise. Lance Lynn has been HORRIBLE this season, including recently, and yet you can get +153 against him. Even weirder? The public is piling on Detroit (which is unusual, for the public to pound the underdog), and the line keeps getting better -- known as reverse line movement. This looks very much like a Trapper John MD situation, and I'd stay away from the Detroit moneyline here, as tempting as it might be to get +153 against one of the worst starting pitchers in 2018 baseball. But I do like the under here.
Cincy game may get rained out. But no harm in firing a bet on it anyway.
http://cdn.atlantamagazine.com/wp-co...oneuseonly.jpg
Right back into the W column with an easy 2-0 day. Not much of a sweat on either of them.
Record keeping:
5/21:
Miami (E. Hernandez) +122 at Mets (Vargas) - LOST -1
Kansas City (I. Kennedy) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 -110 - WON +0.909
5/21 total: 1-1, -0.091 units
5/22:
at Cincinnati (Harvey) +106 vs. Pittsburgh (Taillon) - WON +1.060
Detroit (M. Boyd) at Minnesota (Lynn) - Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
5/22 total: 2-0, +1.893 units
Last two days: 3-1, +1.802 units
GRAND TOTAL: 57-43-2, +16.441 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 34-21-2
Moneyline: 19-18 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
I'm 14-2, +12.72 units since May 12
Considered firing Detroit under again but decided to pass. Not clear enough for my liking.
I'll be back in the 3pm PDT hour to possible post afternoon/evening picks.
Shouldn't doubt myself when on an epic hot run. Detroit under would have easily covered.
I had entered the bet and was about to hit submit, and then erased it. Ugh.
Only got one today.
Colorado (Freeland) at Dodgers (Maeda) - Under 7.5 -115
May have missed a winning under early in the day, but I came right back with an actual winning under pick, to run my record to 15-2 since May 12.
Record:
Colorado (Freeland) at Dodgers (Maeda) - Under 7.5 -115 - WON +0.870
GRAND TOTAL: 58-43-2, +17.311 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 35-21-2
Moneyline: 19-18 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
Nothing this morning. May or may not post picks for the later games... later.
Very last minute pick, so you probably can't bet it.
But for record keeping, here it is:
at Tampa Bay (Snell) +110 vs. Boston (Porcello)
Won again last night, to take me to 16-2 in last 18.
Today:
Baltimore (Hess) at Tampa Bay (Romo) - Under 8.5 -120
Arizona (Corbin) +122 at Oakland (Manaea)
NOTES: No, I haven't gone crazy. Baltimore/TB over is a Trapper John MD line. Go the opposite way. Yes, it's THAT Romo starting.
Arizona will break out of their losing streak today, at least for the moment. They're 1-12 in their last 13, but don't let that scare you.
Baltimore game starting in 10-15 min.
Let's throw one more onto the pile. This is another I agonized over picking, but decided to go with it.
Again, public very much on other side.
Kansas City (Skoglund) at Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -110
Starts at 5:05pm PDT, so not much time left
Shouldn't have tossed in that last-minute KC under. That one was crap the whole way.
The other two won easily. Now 17-3 since May 12.
Through 5/23: 58-43-2, +17.311 units
5/24:
at Tampa Bay (Snell) +110 vs. Boston (Porcello) - WON +1.100
Total: 1-0, +1.100 units
5/25:
Baltimore (Hess) at Tampa Bay (Romo) - Under 8.5 -120 - WON +0.833
Arizona (Corbin) +122 at Oakland (Manaea) - WON +1.220
Kansas City (Skoglund) at Texas (Minor) - Under 9.5 -110 - LOST -1
Total: 2-1, +1.053 units
5/24-5/25 total: 3-1, +2.153 units
GRAND TOTAL: 61-44-2, +19.464 units
Overs: 2-3
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 36-22-2
Moneyline: 21-18 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
Here is a Trapper John MD pick for the day (that is, an opposite of the trap line).
Starting in about 20 minutes (1:10pm PDT). Enjoy!
White Sox (H. Santiago) +103 at Detroit (F. Liriano)
Considering Giants under for a bit later today. Stay tuned.
White Sox took it down.
One more for the evening, starting at 7:10pm:
San Diego (Lyles) at Dodgers (Wood) - Under 7 -105
Spectacular stuff, Dan. The dogs have been solid. Whatever you're doing, keep doing it.
Sunday is the toughest day to handicap in MLB, and this is no exception.
Probably won't make any picks today.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sounds good. Teams make these spur-of-the-morning decisions on holding regulars out, and some of the decisions always surprise me.
Trapper John MD line this morning involving Verlander on the road, but even I can't fire against it. Domingo German (Yankees) has just been so awful lately, and Verlander has been so locked in... and the prize for correctly fading Verlander is a tiny bit above even money. Can't do it.
Also a bunch of sharps going with Baltimore at home against Washington. Normally that would be intriguing, but Alex Cobb is just so bad that this is unappealing. 7.32/1.932 through 8 starts. I mean, seriously.
So I'll sit those out.
And again, sharps are fading Degrom as he pitches on the road against the Braves and rookie Max Fried. This one again would be interesting to perhaps back Atlanta, but +100 isn't worth fading Degrom at this point, who so far has been the 2018 NL Cy Young winner.
I do like one early game though:
St. Louis (Weaver) +102 at Milwaukee (Suter)
Weaver has been pitching much better lately, and he has something to prove, as Alex Reyes is about to join the rotation, and Carlos Martinez will show back up in early-mid June. At that point, there will be 6 Cardinals starters, and one of the remaining ones will have to take a seat.
Game starts at 11:10am PDT
More later (maybe)
I'm 0-2 since my 18-3 run.
Let's try to turn it around with the 2nd game of the Braves/Mets doubleheader, starting in about half an hour (4:10pm PDT)
Mets (Conlon) at Atlanta (McCarthy) - Under 9 -108
So here is a losing streak, albeit a small one.
Took 21 picks to lose 3 games, and now I'm 0-3 since.
Let's shake things up a bit. How about an over pick?
Washington (Hellickson) at Baltimore (Bundy) - Over 9 -120
Let's add another element to the Baltimore game.
at Baltimore -108 (Bundy) vs. Washington (Hellickson)
Starts at 4:05pm PDT
I admittedly know nothing about MLB betting, but I'm trying to figure out how Baltimore could have possibly been favored in that matchup. They have the worst run differential in the AL, and Washington's pitcher has only given up more than 2 runs once this season.
Five losses in a row.
Seems like my worst losing streaks come immediately after a very hot run.
Today I'm not going to take the easy way out by simply firing on a big favorite.
Instead, I'll be staring down a potential 6th straight loss with this sole underdog pick:
Houston (Keuchel) +180 at Yankees (Severino)
NOTES: Severino shut out Houston in a complete game earlier this month, but acknowledged that otherwise he's gotten "crushed" by the Astros, including in the playoffs last year.
Yankees will be resting Greg Bird and Brett Gardner. Astros will be resting George Springer, and Brian McCann just hit the DL.
The public favors this one, but not heavily. If you don't like betting with the public, skip this one.
Hellickson has gotten off to a decent start this season, but he doesn't have much endurance. He's made it through 6 innings only once. Indeed, he almost got blown out in the 5th inning, but barely finished it and the team squeaked out a 3-2 win. He also looked horrible last year, and struggled badly against AL pitching.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Incognito
NL pitchers tend to struggle in AL parks because they're not used to the DH, though so far that hasn't happened as much this year, for whatever reason.
There are some other factors, as well.
Often the +EV bet is the one that seems very wrong on the surface. Sometimes, of course, they don't work out and you look like a fool, as the "obvious" side ends up winning.
The thing about baseball that makes it different from most betting sports is the 3 or 4 game "series". In baseball.....in a 3 game series between a bottom tier team and a top tier team.....the bottom tier team will most likely win one out of 3 in a series. Even though the top tier team will be favored in all 3.
A bottom tier team in the course of the year, will peobably go on a 7 game winning streak, or 8 out of 10. It just the way the ball bounces.
As bad as baltimore is.....they did have a week where they looked like an emerging team....but that fizzled. San Diego has had good stretches. And conversely ..reaL good teams in the course of a season will lose a bunch of games in a row like Ariz did this year, and like LA did at the end of last year.
In baseball its getting on the winning or losing train of various teams and either betting on them or against them. More than anyother sport..baseball is a game of streaks. And being on the wrong side of streaks is death to bettors.
I'm not saying you're wrong but I'm skeptical about the correctness of that statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I would like to see some kind of proof of that.
If an MLB team has won 3 in a row and their upcoming starting pitcher is weak they would seem less likely to win the next game then an NBA team unless injuries are a factor.
Just statistically its more likely to happen in a season of 162 games vis 81 games in basketball or 16 games in NFL.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeI'm not saying you're wrong but I'm skeptical about the correctness of that statement.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I would like to see some kind of proof of that.
If an MLB team has won 3 in a row and their upcoming starting pitcher is weak they would seem less likely to win the next game then an NBA team unless injuries are a factor.
A 9-1 winning record during some period of a 162 game season s much more common in MLB for a weaker team than in other sports You will never see a lower tier team in the nfl go through a9 -1 or and 8-2 stretch. And its very uncommon in the nba for a lower tier team to do well for a 10 game stretch.
Conversely it isnt out ofthe ordinary for an upper tier team in a 162 game season to lose 10 in a row or go 1-9.
Arizona, a first place team just did it. Pittsburg has a winning streak and is now looking like a last place team.They had an 8-2 stretch..and now is in next to last in national league central
Washington, ..one of the better teams in the east has a 2-8 stretch.
There are already a 8-10 streaky teams this year that have either won or lost 8 out of 10 in MLB and the season is not even close to half over.
And itwill continue....because thats what a baseball season is.....a season of streaks both winning streals and losing streaks.
All it takes is a botton tier team to meet up with 3 teams in a row that arent playing their best a the time...and the pathetic lower tier team can put together a 8-2 record during some time in the season. WHne you play 162 games......the bottom teir team may end up with a 333 record.....but its not going to always be WWL, WWL, LWW, WLW. there will be a WWWLLWWWWW sector in there some time in a long season where everything just falls right.
of course we are talking about wins and losses accross all games to keep the apples to apples compariosn
Of course in NFL and NBA a lower tier team can go on a "covering" streak.....but thats not what MLB is all about.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I get what you're saying but it's useless info unless you can state a method of predicting when these streaks will begin and/or continue.
If you can't (and I don't know how anybody could) then it's just like the guys on crapsforum.com talking about their big scores playing streaks implying falsely that it constitutes a winning method or system.
and I'm not saying that you were implying that or that anything you said was false. just pointing it out.
You are right, I didnt say that the streaks could be predicted. I was responding to the person who was talking to Dan about baltimore being a fave even though it is a horible team. And speaking to the fact that dan goes with the dog. SO i was just commenting that dog betting is a decent way to go seeing that even the worst teams can go on a 8 game winning streak, and even the best teams can go on a 10 game losing streak while both are relatively healthy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half SmokeQuote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
I get what you're saying but it's useless info unless you can state a method of predicting when these streaks will begin and/or continue.
If you can't (and I don't know how anybody could) then it's just like the guys on crapsforum.com talking about their big scores playing streaks implying falsely that it constitutes a winning method or system.
and I'm not saying that you were implying that or that anything you said was false. just pointing it out.
Its just the way baseball is.
And like I said, in a 3 game baseball series or 4 game series.....the worst team in baseball will ,likely win one of the 3 or 4 games.