Axel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Printable View
Axel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonRead this carefully mickeycrimm because this is the post by kewlj that started it all. Pay very close attention to his words "accumulated EV" which means hands previously played would impact future results. That's plain English,buddy. Now read it:
Mickeycrimm why would Kewlj refer to "accumulated EV" if he didn't mean that the EV played previously didn't impact future results.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Don't blame me for what kewlj wrote or for what he started.
Okay, I read this carefully. I try to stay out of this mainly because I don't track EV projections and compare them to ongoing results or anything like that.
But I am an English (writing option) major, I have had gambling articles edited and published, and I have no idea why Mr. Mendelson, or anyone, would think the two words "accumulated EV" implies "that the EV previously played would impact future results." That's non-sequitur stuff. It doesn't make sense to deduce the latter from the former.
It just does not follow. It doesn't follow logically, or by definition, or by any math terminology of which I'm aware.
I understood the gist of what kewlJ was saying. Basically, tracking EV is the more accurate way to understand if you're doing the proper things, as opposed to tracking your recent bankroll. That's obvious. How can anyone argue with that?
Sports isn't amenable to pure math analysis, so I do not do that stuff. Video poker and blackjack are solved games; they are amenable to it. What the living hell is the confusion?
KJ is using the phrase "accumulated EV" as referencing the point-to-date of a tracking system, not a physical bank account. Saying "I played the poker hands properly and lost my ass on every one" does not imply "I am owed wins." One doesn't follow the other.
As a point of reference, I think the dice-in-a-cup nonsense was poorly written trickeration purposefully trying to provoke an "improper answer," so I was halfway on Mr. Mendelson's side on that one. Language meant to confuse is bad writing.
I wasn't confused with the "accumulated EV" phrase. I'm not sure anyone should be. Now it's possible some people would read it incorrectly, so then it would be the duty of an editor to clean it up. But I wouldn't be that editor, while I would take a hammer to the dice-in-a-cup writing.
Good, then you should debunk it and call him out on it every chance you get.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAxel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
His system is actully dangerous to people financially.
Do you/have you posted up articles for him on one of your websites? Doing so might lend him some unwarranted credibility with people who don't know any better. Even if his articles have nothing to do with his system.
Really redietz? You -- a writer and English major -- can't differentiate between "accumulated EV" and what the rest of us know to be as the EV of each bet? Shame on you.
My website articles deal with his special plays and some of his off the wall statements about rigged machines. I didn't know about his other strategies until he started posting about them here.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfGood, then you should debunk it and call him out on it every chance you get.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAxel I don't follow or agree with Rob's strategy and I don't play his way and I've said it on this forum. Does that answer your question?Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
His system is actully dangerous to people financially.
Do you/have you posted up articles for him on one of your websites? Doing so might lend him some unwarranted credibility with people who don't know any better. Even if his articles have nothing to do with his system.
I also avoided discussions about abortion, Hillary Clinton,.the Iran nuclear deal and other controversial issues. Do you expect me to comment about those too?
Redietz I know how to resolve this right now. Why don't YOU ask kewlj what he meant by "accumulated EV"?
I have no idea what you're talking about. You've decided "accumulated EV" means something specific that I don't think it means. It's a tracking system, not a bank.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I'm going to take a stab at why one would use EV tracking as opposed to results tracking, even though I don't do it. As a layman regarding video poker and blackjack, I could be completely wrong, so I would appreciate APs correcting me (with a hammer if necessary).
The kewlJ reference was to a point-to-date in a tracking system. Keeping that tracking system day-to-day would be useful if one were trying to decide if games were deteriorating or getting better, or if certain locations were better or worse, and whether opportunities were seasonal or date dependent in other ways. The EV tracking would be a better way than actual results to track short-term, because if you're trying to analyze different locations and seasonality, you're probably not going to accumulate a lot of results data fast enough.
Redietz are you having trouble with the word accumulated?
verb
past tense: accumulated; past participle: accumulated
gather together or acquire an increasing number or quantity of.
"investigators have yet to accumulate enough evidence"
Now ask him why he said accumulated instead of just using EV.
Well then sir, this might just be your lucky day.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
The owners of WoV are advertising for someone with just those skills.
see:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info...riters-needed/
[QUOTE=Rob.Singer;66575]You are right. No AP would ever say that. Would you please explain that to Mendelstupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Oh mickeycrimm perhaps YOU need to ask kewlj what he meant by "accumulated EV."
I read KJ's post here very carefully and I can't find a single solitary sentence "which means hands previously played would impact future results." That is YOUR interpretation. A very STUPID interpretation. Only a DUNCE would make such an interpretation.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonRead this carefully mickeycrimm because this is the post by kewlj that started it all. Pay very close attention to his words "accumulated EV" which means hands previously played would impact future results. That's plain English,buddy. Now read it:
Mickeycrimm why would Kewlj refer to "accumulated EV" if he didn't mean that the EV played previously didn't impact future results.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Don't blame me for what kewlj wrote or for what he started.
Once again proving your sheer stupidity.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickeycrimm what is meant by accumulated? Why did kewlj use the term "accumulated EV"?
And why if he wasn't accumulating EV would he have written this:
" Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win."
KEWLJ, WHY DID YOU USE THE WORD ACCUMULATED?
In law, and V can probably better explain it, when there is an ambiguity in some verbiage it is given its simplest clearest meaning.
Here the term accumulated was used, implying that the EV was being accumulated for some future use. I keep asking what that future use might be since your EV is still the same on each and every hand. So what exactly is accumulated EV and what can I do with it? If it was just a bad use of the word than just say so. Otherwise please tell me what I can do with all that accumulated EV.
I personally stick the money I make from accumulated EV in the bank. It is you and Mendelstupid that take a past tense word "accumulated" and apply it to the future. I don't do that and neither does KJ.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
What? Future use? what are you talking about?Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
This just isn't that complicated.
First I will take it out of blackjack and go to video poker which I hope Alan understands better.
So say I go out today and find a VP machine with a 102% payback. I play 100 rounds at $1 denomination ($5/round) for $500. The expected return would be $510, EV of $10 (2% of $500). So there is $10 EV.
So I go to a second casino and do the same thing except I play 200 rounds at casino #2. EV for that second casino is $20 (2% of $1000)
So my accumulated EV for the day is $30. I add that to what ever the running total is for the year (all the days before) and I have a new "accumulated EV" total for the year. It's THAT simple.
Now my results for that day at those 2 casinos are not likely to be + $30. The actual results will be within a range, from a losing amount to a winning amount. That range is called standard deviation.
Whether I won a few hundred for that day or lost a few hundred for that day, is insignificant. The results are within the normal standard deviation. But with enough trials, enough days (longterm), actual results and "accumulated EV" with come together and be pretty close. It has to mathematically. It just isn't that complicated.
Aren't you talking about accumulated profits?
EV is a forecasted return before you make the bet.
I think you're the one who made the whole thing complicated.
But when you were losing $8800 you had no profits and you still talked about accumulated EV.
"Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win."
Sorry but it's a lot of doubletalk.
I think you were trying to impress us with a bunch of two dollar words... and you failed.
Oh, and tell your shoeshine boy Crimm he doesn't impress me either.
I don’t know why, but I was expecting and kinda hoping for an interesting discussion.....not whatever this is.
I wouldn’t put any stock into what Alan’s “AP friends” or whatever say blindly. IIRC, they sound like they’re playing for nickels and dimes and don’t really know what they’re doing.
OMG....NO, I am NOT talking about accumulated profits. YOU continue to mix up profits or actual results with EV. They are NOT interchangeable. I have told you many times they are two separate distinct things. Maybe it will help if I post records of my play and results for that period. It will take me a few minutes as I have to transfer from the program I use and delete out casino names and misc comments about each session (mostly heat and any unusual developments that I want to remind myself on my next visit to that casino)Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Not at all. I tried to make it as simple as possible and that is why all but 2, maybe 1.5 people seem to understand what I am saying. You being one of those 1.5 or 2, I would say it is you who have failed....failed to understand a fairly simple concept.
Don't go low with me Alan. That is directly from the Rob Singer Playbook. Divert and attack. If you have a problem with Mickey Crimm, YOU tell him. That is between you and he. Don't drag me into it. But frankly, you SHOULD be impressed with Mickey in regards to this thread. EVERYTHING he has said is spot on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Doc removed
Ok, see column 4, EV for each session. When you add them up, you get the accumulated EV (column 5). Since these results start on January 1 for the first 15 days of January, which is the period we were talking about, it was nice and easy. EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15.
Now actual results flip flop all over the place, from a high of + $9212.50 on 1/04/18 to a low of - $2087.50 on 1/11/18. That is variance, and a completely normal range, known as standard deviation.
So while actual results bounce around up and down (like the stock market), EV is a steady climb of expectation and given enough trials (longterm), accumulated EV and actual results will come together. Just as mine did by 1/15/18. Now sometimes this bouncing around, gets more extreme and actual results can be further above or below expectation, and may take longer to get back in line, sometimes months instead of weeks, like in this case. BUT they always come back in line. ALWAYS.
So accumulated EV is a way to measure where you really are, expectation wise. Because results will either catch up to expectation or come back to expectation. In this 15 day period, consisting of only 11 playing days, results both came back to expectation when they were running well above and came up to expectation when they were running behind, so this is a good example.
It's expectation, or accumulated EV that is the real measure of where you are.
Oh and BTW, 1/08/18. Lost $8775, but had accumulated EV of $476, which is about 50% above my daily average for expectation or accumulated EV. So it was a good day for EV despite the loss. That's all I said. I didn't say it was good that I lost.
And it is not unusual that bigger winning AND losing days are also strong EV days. That means, I found good conditions, and got a lot of play in and likely had many max bet opportunities, which is what leads to these bigger swings. If you win those max bets opportunities, you likely will win big and if you lose those max bet opportunities, you will lose big.
This is it, Alan, This is the best I can do. If you can't understand this and come back with something stupid as you always do, I am forever done with you, forever labeling you a useless troll. No more benefit of doubt.
So I take it, even though I don't really know what I'm talking about, that my interpretation of a point-to-date tracking system was spot on?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
The problem, of course, is that if you're doing the opposite (playing negative EV games), if you use something like this tracker, it's hard to escape the fact that you're the casino's bitch. It becomes pretty obvious. Maybe best to argue that this kind of tracking isn't a real thing.
If I didn't know better, I'd say casino ownership is pulling the strings of some posters. I could see that, as 40 years of negative EV can lead to convenient bedfellows.
I use EV (expected value) to determine if I want to sit down on a play or not. Most of my plays have a seat time of 40 minutes or less. These days I try to keep the seat time worth $100 per hour or more. So if I find a five-spot keno progressive showing a positive expectation of $80 and I know that on turbo speed it plays at 40 games per minute I'm looking at about 40 minutes average seat time because the frequency of hitting the solid five is 1551. I divide $80 by 2 then multiply by 3 to get an hourly rate of $120. That means the play is a go. I do this because I know there are other plays waiting on me and I dont want to waste my time on a low earner.
I've played off multi-thousands of these kind of plays in the past ten years. With 1551 being the cycle I've hit the five-spot on the first game and I've gone 7500 games to hit it. I've hit it in a quarter cycle hundreds of time, half cycle hundreds of time, 1 cycle hundreds of time, 1.5 cycles hundreds of times, 2 cycle hundreds of times, 3 cycles dozens of times, 4 cycles dozens of time, and I've been stretched out to over 5 cycles a few times. But when I look at the results thru hundreds of plays the average is about 1 cycle per play.
It's the same thing with the money fluctuations. The average cost to run 1 cycle is $150. When I hit the five-spot early I make more than the $80 in expectation. When I hit it late I make less than the $80 expectation. If I hit it way late I lose money on the play.
But thru 200 hundred plays, which is the long term on this play, I've accumulated about $16,000 in EV. The results moneywise are always within $1000 either way of the $16,000 accumulated EV.
Kewlj I'm sorry but you have caused the confusion because you are using EV interchangeably and you've created your own definition in doing so. The key to effective communication is to use words that everyone understands and do not confuse. If I used "peanut butter" to describe a royal flush and "saltine" to describe an ace our discussion would go nowhere.
This is about EV so let's use the definition of EV, and not your definition:
Expected Value
Expected value is how much you can expect to lose (negative) or win (positive) from a bet. For example the expected value in American double-zero roulette is -5.26%. That means you can expect to lose 5.26% of every dollar you bet.
That's from the Wizard of Odds
You keep referring to EV also as profits and losses and you say EV has a range. Regnis and others have told you EV is predetermined based on the game and odds. You ignore this. This is a roadblock for understanding.
You can't say things like this:
"EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15." You can't say it because EV is a defined return and doesn't change on the same game.
If you want to be a better communicator use the definitions that are accepted. Otherwise it is doubletalk. EV is not the result of a bet, it is a forecasted value before the bet is made.
I have exactly zero problem interpreting KJ's analysis. I don't think most others do either. The problem is your continual misinterpretation of everything. It's never ending. Since you have so little comprehension you can write a post like you did above about virtually anything that gets posted here. It's whats so maddening about you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickeycrimm maybe you can interpret kewlj because you speak the same "AP speak" he does. But the rest of the world doesn't.
Do you want to communicate with the rest of the world? Then use a language the rest of the world understands.
I'm not alone. Eddie was the first to go public here to say he didn't understand. Regnis followed. That's three of us, at least. Something is wrong with the message when one third of the active forum members question the wording.
Now call me stupid if you want or use your bigoted anti semite slur if you want, but this is the real situation.
I suggest kewlj come up with some different terminology if he wants to get his message across.
The bottom line is the rest of us should not have to interpret anything. It should be readily understandable.
You can pull that shit on anyone or anything. It's time to take responsibility for your own ineptitude.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Mickeycrimm you have a real problem. I'm sorry.
Yes, you are a sorry person.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I'm hoping kewlj is more reasonable and smarter than you mickeycrimm. Kewlj could indeed have a very smart methodology that only needs it's language tweaked to be understood. I'm hoping he comes through.
I can't comment on what someone playing -EV situations might do or think. :rolleyes: I really can't. I have no experience with that. None. I never played negative EV games. Never gambled. There are people like my late partner, who were -EV players and turned themselves into +EV players (I like to think I helped quite a bit in this case). But I am not one of those people. I never had any interest in gambling before I learned card counting and +EV play.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I suppose if you are a -EV player, you don't want to see results like tracking by EV. I suspect there is a lot of lying to yourself involved and seeing those results would interfere with that.
Yeah, I do that too with blackjack. I have a dear friend, Norm Wattenberger :rolleyes:, who is author of great blackjack software (QFIT products) that does that for me. This is how I know what each different game (by # decks, penetration, rules) is worth to me per round, and whether I am even interested in playing that particular game and conditions.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Alan, you are the one double talking and saying things that were never said. Prime example is that "EV has a range". I never frigging said anything like that. EV is constant, actual results have a range (standard deviation).
You have done this since day 1 that I have interacted with you, and whether it's a game or because of your degenerative gambler mindset you simply cannot understand these concepts, doesn't even matter to me. My purpose here is not to try to break down your wall and teach you something you clearly have no interest in learning. Your interest is to argue.
And by the way Alan, you keep saying my definition. Accumulated EV is not my concept. Like most things I do and employ, they were learned from other AP's. Almost all serious AP's engage in some form of tracking their EV to determine how their actual results measure up at any given time against expectation. Maybe they don't call it "accumulated EV". Maybe they have some other term for it or have no term for it, but all serious AP's do this.
Again this is not my definition. While I can't remember where every concept or term I learned and now employ or incorporate into my play came from and give credit, everything came from some BJ author or member of a blackjack site that has contributed to my blackjack education.
Alan here is what I think is really going on here. You have contempt for AP's which we all know and I think everyone acknowledges but you. I think Dan Druff, who remains silent on almost everything even chimed in on that one time.
So I come along, a guy in my mid 30's, who has supported myself from card counting for, now in my 15th year. Made nearly a million dollars from card counting, over a million total AP, and you immediately had double contempt for me, because I have had some success at an early age. You think of me as a kid, and have referred to me in that manner, trying to do so in an unflattering way. So every time I say something, that you as a non-AP, non-card counter, are not familiar with, or haven't heard of other people doing, you say to yourself "this kid doesn't know what he is talking about" and immediately try to challenge and discredit me.
You will deny this, but it is true and I think anyone being objective sees it. You did it with tracking 2 tables. You have done in with "accumulated EV". You have done it a couple other times that aren't coming to mind right now. Double contempt. Because I am a successful (at my level of play) card counter / AP and because I am young by your standards. Get over it Alan. You have chosen your path in life and your path gambling-wise. You claim you enjoy being a losing player. So why all the contempt for those of us that enjoy and work hard at winning?
I'm not going to argue with you anymore because we are obviously speaking different languages... the same way you are speaking different languages over the WOV controversy about Qfit.
You say that EV doesn't have a range? Okay I'm glad you said that but above you posted:
"EV starts at zero (new year) and progresses up to $3244, at the end of January 15."
Is that not a range?
I'm guessing you really didn't mean to say EV and you meant to say something else. Well that's the problem. I don't understand you. Eddie doesn't understand. Regnis doesn't understand. Apparently the Wizard doesn't understand either in your fight over Qfit.
Good luck.
Skip the double talk. What can I do with the accumulated EV. My odds of winning the next hand haven't changed at all. So what can I do with it? What good is it? Or does it just mean I played a lot of hands? I played a lot of hands so I accumulated a lot of EV. OK---now what? What do I do with it? How does it help me on the next hand or the 10,000th hand to come? That is what I don't understand. The fact that you lost $8,000 or won $8,000 doesn't matter to me. I understand there are wins and losses. But tell me what I can do with that accumulated EV.
My feud with QFIT, in which Michael Shackleford wrongly chose to get involved and take sides has nothing to do with this discussion. Don't try to mix it in. And you don't even know the half of what it is about, as it began, on 2 other sites before Wizards. QFIT, simply followed me (stalked me) to other sites that he didn't even participate at, trying to bully other site owners to silence me. Only 1 other site owner did and that was Mike Shackleford. At BJ21.com, 2+2 Poker, and even Gamblingforum, the owner all told QFIT to pound sand when he tried the same bullying tactics. Only Shackleford was so weak, he allowed himself to be played and bullied. So don't talk about something that you don't know the facts of.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If you are guessing I didn't mean to say "EV" then you are guessing wrong. No wonder your gambling results are what they are. You are a bad guesser. ;)
EV does not have a range. EV accumulates. Starting at zero and accumulating to 3200 and beyond (currently 46,680 for the year) is NOT a range.....it is the process of accumulating.
Kewlj DO NOT respond to me. From now on respond to regnis.
You can't "do" anything with it. It is not a monetary value, although most teams actually do pay their players based on EV rather than results, or some combination of EV/results. That is getting a bit away from what we are talking about, but it does demonstrate the degree of certainty that these players that understand the math have that results and EV will eventually come together.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Accumulated EV is a measurement of results and where results will eventually be. EV is a constant so it removed the fluctuation that actual results incur. In the end long-term), both will arrive at the same point. ALWAYS DO. It's mathematics.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Actually, I am about done responding to either. I am not going to continue to waste my time trying to explain things to people that don't want to learn, just want to argue.
You guys do it your way. I'll do it mine. I am very happy with my results over the last 14+ years. Now my chauffer is here. Off to work I go to accumulate some EV. :cool:
Kewl--I am trying to have a conversation with no name calling, no agenda, no Forum BS. I asked a very simple question that I don't understand. If you can't give me an answer then I have to assume you don't have one.
I didn't see 119. Disregard. I see your answer.
Hold on kewlj. I can understand you not responding to me, but regnis? He's posted twice about you.
I amazed at how long this discussion can go on with MendelFOOL. When will KJ get tired, is the question.
MendleFool... not bad but nothing beats that MendleBread reference with Hitler having the recipe.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
It is pretty obvious that MendleBread doesn't give a shit about what he is talking about or asking. He is only here to cause trouble and troll asking the same stupid questions over and over again and telling everyone that he "gotcha" or they are wrong. Fucking Asshole really who made a living out of telling on people. Nothing but a piece of shit Tattletale. He is also here to promote Rob Singer and most likely gets a kickback or blowjob from him.
as i hold the mirror to james bonds faceQuote:
Originally Posted by monetMendleFool... not bad but nothing beats that MendleBread reference with Hitler having the recipe.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
It is pretty obvious that MendleBread doesn't give a shit about what he is talking about or asking. He is only here to cause trouble and troll asking the same stupid questions over and over again and telling everyone that he "gotcha" or they are wrong. Fucking Asshole really who made a living out of telling on people. Nothing but a piece of shit Tattletale. He is also here to promote Rob Singer and most likely gets a kickback or blowjob from him.
You forget, KJ is a grinder (that is a blackjack playing approach, not a sexual reference). Grinders are persistent and have stamina. But you are right MaxPen, dealing with this guy has taken it's toll on me and is wearing me out. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
I think an example of "using accumulated EV" from the casino's point of view would be when they are establishing player comps based on play and the player's theoretical loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
From a player's perspective? :confused:
I suppose after tracking a sufficiently large number of sessions and the "EV accumulated", one could compare it to their actual results and perhaps make a determination if one indeed DOES have a +EV situation.
The only other use I can see for it is to comfort yourself when you run below expectation or suffer a bad beat. :rolleyes:
Correct, the casino industry tracks expectation. Their entire business is based on expectation. And just like the player who achieves the long-term, the casino industry knows results will meet expectation in the long run. It's math.Quote:
Originally Posted by a2a3dseddieI think an example of "using accumulated EV" from the casino's point of view would be when they are establishing player comps based on play and the player's theoretical loss.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
From a player's perspective? :confused:
I suppose after tracking a sufficiently large number of sessions and the "EV accumulated", one could compare it to their actual results and perhaps make a determination if one indeed DOES have a +EV situation.
The only other use I can see for it is to comfort yourself when you run below expectation or suffer a bad beat. :rolleyes:
Form the players perspective. Blackjack is NOT like Video poker where there is a 4000-1 payout or other games with large jackpots. Blackjack is an even money game basically. You aren't going to win a million dollars, or $100,000 or whatever your goal is without putting in the action, the actual play that will allow for that. Accululated EV is a way to determine just where you are as it is constant, not subject to the short-term fluctuations and variance of actual results. In the end the two will come together. But in the short-term, accumulated EV is a much better measuring stick as to where you are....because it is not subject to that short-term fluctuation, that "rollercoaster" ride.
Compare it with your actual results. Duh!Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
kewlj, I think this is where results oriented thinking people may take issue. :eek:Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Mickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmCompare it with your actual results. Duh!Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.
I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.
Virtually all nursery school graduates learn that Straw Man arguments are ineffectual against other people older than four years old - Alan is the extremely rare exception.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Hey, MrV, I just wanted to thank you for the heads up. Unfortunately, I haven't played blackjack in 30 years, I never play craps, and I don't even know the rules for the other games (other than NLH and Seven Stud). But I do appreciate the information. If he ever wanted some sports betting editor, well, that I can do.Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterVWell then sir, this might just be your lucky day.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
The owners of WoV are advertising for someone with just those skills.
see:
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/info...riters-needed/
Sounds as if there's an exodus of writers at WoV. I hope they get paid more than the mods.
Alan, put a coin in your hand. Charge me $8500 to pick what hand the coin is in. If I guess wrong I owe you $8500.. If I guess right I get $42500.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Allow me to keep playing until i want to quit.
I bet I can get a loan on that bet and float all my bills, even if I lost $8500 multiple Times already in one day. And I could say I had my best day ever even though I lost because I know dang well I will crush you soon enough and it will average out soon enough.
Another misstatement Axel. The day you lost is not a great day. You may have made a wager with a very high EV. But you lost--so not a great day. And that is really the essence of what this argument is all about. And when you do win the 42,500, that will be a great day, although the EV of that wager was no different.
Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisMickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmCompare it with your actual results. Duh!Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.
I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.
You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.
mickey, kewlj,
Looking at some of the analysis you make before making a bet... determining if it is indeed a +EV opportunity and reading through your explanations is very interesting stuff.
What would happen if you didn't track this EV afterwards? I mean, uncovering +EV situations to bet on anyone can understand, but does it really matter after the bets are resolved? :confused:
Mickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmQuote:
Originally Posted by regnisMickey--don't get snarky with me. Compare it with actual results to what end? What good does it do? We all know there is variance. Kewl is certain that in the long run he will approximate the EV. So what good does it do to look at it after the one bad day? If he is certain then it doesn't matter and he need not look at it.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
If it is just a mental crutch then so be it. It may be meaningless to some but it may have some comfort to others. So be it. But don't make it sound like it has some other intrinsic value.
I'm ok with Kewl's answer from above.
You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.
You must be a Fucking Idiot! Are you a part of the Confederacy? Sure sounds like it! Any day that you get a 50/50 chance and risk 8500 to win 42,500 is a Fucking Great Day no matter win or lose any amount. You Fucking Idiots are the dumbest pieces of shit that don't understand that in this lifestyle all you are looking for is something like this and to exploit it over and over till you have to move to the next exploit. Fucking Amatures!Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Even though you say your name has no relation to Rob Singer I think it is clear you are Singer or Regnis... Fuck You!
Here's a hypothetical question. I play 4 hours, lose $8,000, and accumulate $450 EV. The next day I play 4 hours and accumulate $400 EV and win $8,000.
Which day is better?
Nice to hear from you Monet. When is your release date from the institution?Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou must be a Fucking Idiot! Are you a part of the Confederacy? Sure sounds like it! Any day that you get a 50/50 chance and risk 8500 to win 42,500 is a Fucking Great Day no matter win or lose any amount. You Fucking Idiots are the dumbest pieces of shit that don't understand that in this lifestyle all you are looking for is something like this and to exploit it over and over till you have to move to the next exploit. Fucking Amatures!Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Even though you say your name has no relation to Rob Singer I think it is clear you are Singer or Regnis... Fuck You!
We are dumb because we believe losing is bad. Hmmmmm--must be that new math they talk about.
I didn't say it was a bad bet or bad odds. He had great odds and lost. Thus--not a great day. Yes--he should do it every day and yes he will probably make a ton of $$.
But to lose with good odds or bad odds or any other way is bad. Would I make that bet? Yes--every effin day. And any day I lost would suck.
Fuck off, regnistupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisMickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmQuote:
Originally Posted by regnis
You're the one that's been getting snarky. I didn't make it sound like it had some intrinsic value. Anyone who says I did is a fucking liar. Here, I'll make it a little easier on you and Mentalmidgetson. I "played off" $330 in EV today. It means the exact same thing as "I accumulated $330 in EV today." But maybe you can grasp "played off." There's no hope for Mentalmidgetson. And this bullshit about it comforting someone is total hogwash.
For me the amount of EV I'm running off (accumulating) tells me where I should be. I'm a 20K winner in Town A and I'm only a 15K winner in town B. In Town A I'm running off (accumulating) $400 a day in EV. In Town B I'm running off $600 a day in EV. Which town should I spend more time in? If I go by results I will come up with the wrong answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by a2a3dseddie
The reason I'm spending so much time out of state these days is because I'm running off (accumulating) twice the amount of EV out of state than in state. In other words the opportunity is currently much better out of state.
You can also use your track record to plan financially.
Eddie brought up a good point. Casinos Marketing bases their offers on accumulated EV.
Player A spent two days at the property. He/she ran a total wager of $20,000 on a slot with an 8% house edge and won $1000.
Player B spent two days at the property. He/she ran a total wager of $20,000 on a slot with an 8% house edge and lost $1500.
What these two players won or lost is irrelevant. The pertinent stats are the total wager and house edge. The house accumulated $1600 in EV from each of these players. Marketing uses the accumulated EV as a basis to determine future offers to these two players.
A couple of things: whether KJ's 8K loss was a good day or bad day in any sense depends on whether those opportunities are going to be there awhile. If the exact same game will be there for months, I'd feel a lot better playing perfectly and getting slammed than if that game will disappear next week. If you're going to play blackjack for a living, you can't close up shop on a minus 8k day just because of variance. Unless, of course, you suspect a mechanic is part of the problem.
And I guess that would be an issue with me. I'm not able to recognize a mechanic, or a magician, so I'd become paranoid over a result like that which took 10% of my annual earnings away in one shift. Video poker is different, in that so much value is in the royals. I've experienced 100k (hands) without royals and gotten three in a few hundred hands, so getting clobbered in one day with a big edge wouldn't bother me.
I think you have to track the EV. I don't see how a professional machine player or blackjack player could pass on doing that.
Well said.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You are not wrong in a regular Joe type of thinking sense but when you AP for a living you are always looking and finding a place where you have an edge so it doesn't matter win or lose. Win and Lose is the same thing for a player who is playing at a positive every time they step up to the plate. Only the morons who aren't in it daily think in terms of I just won 10 grand or I just lost 10 grand. Leave that type of thinking to the ploppies which are almost everyone. Even if you only have 1 hour to play at a high edge you should be the happiest player in the world because that is what you are looking for. You want to get your money in at every single opportunity where you have an edge and the bigger the better no matter time limit or how much you win or lose on that given play.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Most players are thinking about Risk vs. Reward but once you get past thinking about the "money" all you are thinking is what is my return % or edge. The key as you elude to is that you need to be able to generate these opportunities on a consistent basis which isn't as easy or as hard as you might think. Think about that story of Dancer and WoN together hammering out a play for 8 hours that had an edge of over 100 dollars per hour. They ran good and ended up beating it but that isn't what mattered in the end. What matters is to be able to play with that edge and only to play when you have those edges. Money doesn't matter once you get to a certain level.
Mickey-I haven't said an unkind word towards you and have been a fan of your stories and the road trip pictures. I admire what you do--you have your niche. But an inability to have an open discussion without resorting to vulgarity shows your true colors.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmFuck off, regnistupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisMickey--how did you play off EV? Is there a special EV voucher that you put in the machine?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Having the edge is fine. Losing sucks. I don't think that is so hard to understand. If I make a great bet with a huge edge and I lose, that sucks. As I said, I too would keep making that bet. But that day that I lost still sucks--and even more so because I had such a big edge.
You commented that you played off EV. I don't understand. Splain Lucy!!
Red-I would ask what value there really is in tracking the EV. He knows the EV and he says it doesn't change on the next hand or the 10,000th hand. So as long as he knows he has a +EV on every hand, what good does tracking do? Yes--I want to know that I have an advantage on my bet. But if I know exactly what that advantage is, isn't that the end? It doesn't make it more likely that I will win any hand down the road. And again, the concept of accumulating it just seems meaningless to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
"playing it off" or "played off" just means you are executing or executed the play. A recent example would be where I got 10X points at the Deadwood Mountain Grand weekend before last. They have a blackjack console in there that's a 99.43% base game. The card is worth .4% so 10X made it 4%. The 10X lasted two hours on Friday night and 2 hours on Saturday night. So I went in on both Friday and Saturday nights and "played it off." At the speed the machine plays it was $800 in EV but I actually made $650.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnisMickey-I haven't said an unkind word towards you and have been a fan of your stories and the road trip pictures. I admire what you do--you have your niche. But an inability to have an open discussion without resorting to vulgarity shows your true colors.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmFuck off, regnistupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Having the edge is fine. Losing sucks. I don't think that is so hard to understand. If I make a great bet with a huge edge and I lose, that sucks. As I said, I too would keep making that bet. But that day that I lost still sucks--and even more so because I had such a big edge.
You commented that you played off EV. I don't understand. Splain Lucy!!
Don't anyone go flying off to Deadwood. The play is over.
Thanks--now i understand what you meant.
Nice play mickeycrimm. But it seems to me even a new player could have done what you did? That means get a card and play at the designated time for the bonus, right?
Yes, and there were drunk ploppies playing at the same time I was. They slowed me down quite a bit. They weren't betting much and I think they were oblivious to the promotion going on. They were coming and going.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Alan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
So this is not an example of "tracking EV" but just being aware of a promotion and playing it at the right time?
8/5 Bonus Poker pays 99.2% and Mickeys game paid 99.43% Both would still get the 4% bonus? I'd stick with the game I know.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAlan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
There is a terrible danger playing a game you don't know because of some promotion.
I also was thrown off by the phrase "played it off" but now I understand as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
I think there are regional and demographic and age differences in how we use various words and what their meanings are.
I order scrambled eggs "dry" and in the East it's not a problem. Here on the west coast waiters and waitresses don't know what "dry" means. (It's well done.)
For one thing, it allows you to determine if a game is rigged. KewlJ gave an excellent example of this when he outlined his experience at the Eastside Cannery in Las Vegas -- obviously if you are running at -5 standard deviations below the EV for an extended period of time, then knowing what your earn should be (via tracking the EV) versus what's actually going on will have proven to be very valuable since you will stop playing the rigged game based on the huge differential between expected and actual.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
Machine BJ has a much lower variance than 8/5 bonus poker (vastly so) - so if you are looking for a well-behaved, predictable earn, the BJ is the way to go - but of course this only applies to people who know the strategy of both games.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson8/5 Bonus Poker pays 99.2% and Mickeys game paid 99.43% Both would still get the 4% bonus? I'd stick with the game I know.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAlan, would a novice be able to find the best game for such a promotion? And would they know optimal strategy? Would they even be aware of the value involved?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
There is a terrible danger playing a game you don't know because of some promotion.