A couple more River Dragons variants:
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A couple more River Dragons variants:
Do you feel the numbers are close or the same.
You are jumping on the Original Version at 4930 or above right?
After that long session where you ripped off both meters do you feel that you need more than 4930 to start?
What is your Minor Entry point? I am not sure if you shared that.
I know you said you were at 419 when you started that other play and it was expected to come off.
Also you stated that if you had not hit the Minor you would of only had a 773 dollar profit?
That being said do you think the entry points need to be higher than what you first decided?
I have data collected from four plays on the 500 meter and one play on the 5000 meter. I made $39,521 in action and got dropped for $6,796.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
6796/39521 = 17.2%
On the 5000 play I calculated that if it ran me all the way to the top I would make $25,600 in action. And if I got dropped for 20% the cost would be $5,120. But I also knew the 500 meter would run to the top and hit too since it runs faster than the 5000 meter. So I would have my butt covered if I took a 20% drop. I took a 16.68% drop which equates to $4,270 but hit both the 500 and 5000 meters so made $1221.
I want to make a healthy profit on the play so $4930 is my number on all the variants as long as the meter speed is 0.26666%. Different meter speed means a different calculation.
On the 500 meter, whether the meter speed is .375% or .4% I'll play at $486.
I think the problem you will run into in Vegas is hustlers willing to play lower numbers than I play. It's a competition thing. They'll take it low to keep other hustlers from getting the play. To me that means no one makes any real money on the game.
Mickeycrimm I am very impressed with all of the data from all of your plays on so many machines and games. (When do you find time to sleep?) Keep up the good work.
After further thought I think I can see a case for playing numbers a little lower than I play. That is, if you think running 25 to 30K in action will generate freeplay mailers.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI have data collected from four plays on the 500 meter and one play on the 5000 meter. I made $39,521 in action and got dropped for $6,796.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
6796/39521 = 17.2%
On the 5000 play I calculated that if it ran me all the way to the top I would make $25,600 in action. And if I got dropped for 20% the cost would be $5,120. But I also knew the 500 meter would run to the top and hit too since it runs faster than the 5000 meter. So I would have my butt covered if I took a 20% drop. I took a 16.68% drop which equates to $4,270 but hit both the 500 and 5000 meters so made $1221.
I want to make a healthy profit on the play so $4930 is my number on all the variants as long as the meter speed is 0.26666%. Different meter speed means a different calculation.
On the 500 meter, whether the meter speed is .375% or .4% I'll play at $486.
I think the problem you will run into in Vegas is hustlers willing to play lower numbers than I play. It's a competition thing. They'll take it low to keep other hustlers from getting the play. To me that means no one makes any real money on the game.
Alan, money is the motivating factor. At all times I carry a pocket notebook and have a calculator on my phone. Recording and analyzing stats is a pain in the ass but it pays off in the long run. thanks for the compliment.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
This is the problem I see in a lot of places. The pseudo-AP's that think Something like $460/$500 is a good play. One lady had a machine locked up for 3 days trying to hit it, finally getting it this morning! I haven't been on a must hit by in years.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
This is Barney,
Mr. Jbjb, I agree with you but what is worse, and that I sometimes see, is security personage calling local personage when the progressive slut machine device gets around $485 and they places reserved sign on device. When the local personage shows up she tips the security personage, takes off the reserved sign, and begins to play the device. Both times when I see this happen the local personage plays around 10 hours before hitting the payoff. Probably lost money since it took so long before hitting it. Talk about Collusion. This play by local personage pisses me off more than the so-called Russian Collusion.
Ahhhh! It's a slot machine, not a slut machine. :-)
It looks like the Wizard is finally taking a look at the AGS must hits. He's a little off on the name, it's not Fire Dragons but River Dragons. The variants are Fire Wolf, Wolf Queen, Forest Dragons, Winter of the Dragons. And their are some new variants hitting the casinos. The one thing to look for is the AGS logo on the machine. If you find that logo its going to run you to the top.
I brought up the research you have done Mickey, seems like it pissed the Wiz off, lol. And when the Wiz is pissed, suspensions happen.
An End is what it is.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
And a Grasshopper is what it is.
And Christmas Sir is a Humbug, Good Day!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3XsnSEMock
Fuck, I figured you died, my bad, sorry.
Onenickelmiracle is a pain in the ass. And Babs doesn't marty her liberal pets on the suspensions. Always just 3 days.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
I don't think the Wiz knows the reset values. The 500 always starts at $200. The 5K can start at either 2K or 4K but the meter rate is always the same, 0.26666%. At least with the many machines I'm familiar with. I much prefer the ones that start at 4K because it doesn't take as long for a play to develop.
About a week ago an AP showed me a picture of an RD that hit at $4917. So it is possible for it to go early but not likely. And the 4917 is a pretty high number too.
There is a thread over at WoV on the AGS must hits like River Dragons. Shack puts the average hit at 4945. I think that's accurate but not for the same reasons he lists. He speculates that 99% of the time it hits above 4900 and 1% of the time it hits below 4900. I'm networked with a lot of people on this game. I know of two cases it hit in the low 4900's. Verified with pictures. I know of no cases it hit below 4900. By and large it runs to 4990 or higher before it hits.
I think the rare cases it hits in the low 4900's brings the average hit down from 4995 to 4945. But you can't jump on this game at 4870 thinking the average hit is 4945. You'll get your clock cleaned. You have to calculate your cost based on the average hit being 4995 because probably 97% of the time thats the number you are going to be at or around when it hits.
Do not think you have a uniform chance of hitting it when it gets above 4900. Thats only going to happen when you get to 4990 or over.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...YY7xfGTf8cbeXA
The same thing seems to be true with their Shamrock Jackpots game. It has four must hit progressives. The bottom two are a $25 and a $50. If you take the $25 any lower than $24.15 or so or if you take the $50 anywhere below $49.30, you're asking for trouble. It does seem like the base game return decreases as you get closer to the must hit value, but hopefully that's not the case. Anyhow, as long as players keep in mind that with any AGS must hit product, if they initiate a play very close to the top, they can usually avoid trouble.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Over at WoV, on page 3 of the AGS thread, the Wiz says he has a par sheet for the game. From the par sheet he was able to determine the amount of payback represented by the progressive meters. But there is one glaring omission in his analysis. He didn't divulge the payback of the overall game or the payback in the main game. If he has the par sheet he has that information. He has always published payback percentages but in this case he hasn't. It's probably information that he only wants his inside click to know. Someone should ask him about it.
I'll give the guy this, he's hooked up pretty well since he managed to get the par sheet for it (clique members must be stoked). It looks like you were spot on with your meter rise estimates.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I know someone that has played off 15 RD's and everyone has run him above 4990. But I've also seen two pics where it hit in the low 4900's.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayI'll give the guy this, he's hooked up pretty well since he managed to get the par sheet for it (clique members must be stoked). It looks like you were spot on with your meter rise estimates.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I found a river dragons at $489.xx and started playing. The meter was only moving at about 0.2% though!!! I’ve played a lot of these and never seen that. Still I got lucky and made $600 on it.
A hustler showed me a pic of one that hit in the $43xx’s.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmI know someone that has played off 15 RD's and everyone has run him above 4990. But I've also seen two pics where it hit in the low 4900's.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayI'll give the guy this, he's hooked up pretty well since he managed to get the par sheet for it (clique members must be stoked). It looks like you were spot on with your meter rise estimates.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I've yet to see one of these over $4900 in LV; looks like the tourists play them off early. The closest I've seen was last week at 4868, and a few days later someone had flipped it.
To many people are willing to take the bait in the high 4800's.Quote:
Originally Posted by Guy Incognito
Before I knew they always went to the top I played one at $487x.xx. I somehow won like $3k on the play. I think it helped that i was betting $5 and $9. Variance obviously plays a larger role when betting more. Now that I have more experience with them I shutter at the thought of playing them that low. I actually pass on $4910 a few weeks back because the $500 was near reset and wouldn’t hit before the $5k.
Here's some pics of the play I did a couple days ago.
Is that $4994 it hit at?
Yep. I had $5000 in the machine with $834 in credits left when I hit it so made $829. I figured to get in for about that much when I started the play. The drain was 14.43%. The place is good for comped rooms and freeplay so I took it a little lower than I normally would.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
Mickey how often have you seeen them hit before $4990?
I've personally never seen it but I'm networked with a lot of guys so every once in a while we get a report of one hitting early. Every coin in is eligible but it's not equally weighted. It's heavily weighted to the top. You can't count on it hitting early. You have to strategize it like it's going to run to 4995.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Sometimes I'm at the store searching, give up and ask the clerk where is this item? Usually the answer is-Right in front of you! Anyhow.
What can I learn from these two pics? Why did you show both? How does the total come about. How many ways did you win? What is the bet, what is the demon. It's clear as mud but I'm curious. Thanks.
Signed, Lost in Montana.
I miraculously managed to find one of these (485/500) in Las Vegas, at a store that's notoriously vulture-infested, no less. Came off at around 497, which I assume is around the average. I still haven't found a 5000 play (closest was 4898).
Here's my stats for the play:Quote:
Originally Posted by pahrump pete
Start: $4917.56
Finish: $4994.58
Wager: $28,882
Cost: $4166
Drain: 14.43%
Net Win/Loss: +$829 and comp/freeplay
How I determined the total wager:
The meter moves at .002666666%.
Divide 1 by that number and you get 3.75.
That means it takes a $3.75 wager to move the meter 1 cent.
So every $375 in action moves the meter $1.
I moved the meter from 4917.58 to 4994.56.
Thats a difference of $77.02.
77.02 X 375 means a total wager of $28,882
I had $5000 in the machine with $834 in credits left when it hit. That's how I determined that the profit was $829.
For the drain percentage I just divide the $4166 cost by the total wager, $28,882 to get 14.43%.
[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;87506]Here's my stats for the play:Quote:
Originally Posted by pahrump pete
Start: $4917.56
Finish: $4994.58
Wager: $28,882
Cost: $4166
Drain: 14.43%
Net Win/Loss: +$829 and comp/freeplay
How I determined the total wager:
The meter moves at .002666666%.
Divide 1 by that number and you get 3.75.
That means it takes a $3.75 wager to move the meter 1 cent.
So every $375 in action moves the meter $1.
I moved the meter from 4917.58 to 4994.56.
Thats a difference of $77.02.
77.02 X 375 means a total wager of $28,882
Determining the cost is easy. I had $5000 in the machine with $834 left when it hit. So the cost was $4166.
For the drain percentage I just divide the $4166 cost by the total wager, $28,882 to get 14.43%.
deleted. Double post.
deleted. triple post.
deleted. I don't know what the hell is going on. I keep deleting but it keeps double posting.
Ouch, that much math at one time makes my brain hurt. Seriously though, interesting stuff. I see it clearer.
I get a sense of danger if the action generated on the bets doesn't materialize as expected. That must be the downfall. On the other hand pure icing on the cake when the action abounds, the ride is free and the payoff "must hit". Nice.
Thanks Mickey.
Got another River Dragon play on graveyard last night. Ran exceptionally well. Got dropped for just 12.47%. Made $1647, plus put $67 on the card and may get comp/FP mailers.
Nice one Mickey! It definitely helps to run well. Is that a place where the hold could have been set to 20-25% or were you pretty confident of the expected drain?
I've had 3 plays so far. 1st was a 17% drain, 2nd 14.47%, and this latest one just 12.47%. Even though the RD's run to the top they have a stronger meter than the 10K's and much lower variance. The hold is predictable, well below 20%.Quote:
Originally Posted by Katch
Oh, good. I took a bath chasing a $500 this year when it dropped over 40% during just $10k+ coin in, but I was pushing it at the 8.80 level and variance just got the better of me.
Yeah, I play the 5000's at 176 and the 500's at 88 to smooth out the variance.Quote:
Originally Posted by Katch
If you are not filing as a pro it almost seems the $5k W-2G isn’t even worth it. I guess maybe there are ways to offset such a huge play.
Playing a 5k rd at 1.76 would be like watching paint dry ,,,hours wasted
I have only played River Dragons one time. I chose the 528 denom. Didn't want to possibly hit a taxable before the main event.
Maybe so but with the numbers you guys play its money wasted.Quote:
Originally Posted by Advantageplay
I like the low variance route. I don't get a play on RD's all that often. This last play was on graveyard in a 600 machine casino in the middle of nowhere. Nothing to do but twiddle my thumbs if not on the play.
PS: An 880 bettor gets to sit around waiting on W2-G's. You have to rack up just 137 bets in free game mode to get one.
And we all don't have million dollar plays like you.
I've seen W2Gs at 1.76.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
On this last play I hit one of the set of free games for about $700. Would have been a W-2G at the 352 level. And while I was playing a lady was playing one of the other machines. She took two W2-G's at the 352 level.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburgerI've seen W2Gs at 1.76.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
I took a minor on one of these recently and had a pretty good spin....
1439 bets in one spin. Nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfoot66I took a minor on one of these recently and had a pretty good spin....
A. Wow. Twitter worthy.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfoot66I took a minor on one of these recently and had a pretty good spin....
B. That would have been a W2G at 88c.
You're right. I'll hang it.Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburgerA. Wow. Twitter worthy.Quote:
Originally Posted by bigfoot66I took a minor on one of these recently and had a pretty good spin....
B. That would have been a W2G at 88c.
I found an Ainsworth Glitter Diamonds at $1,964.29 major must pay by $2,000.00. I saw someone playing for a bit and I clocked the major meter at 1 penny per $5.00 and the minor at 1 penny per $3.50. Does that sound right for an Ainsworth penny machine? Also, at what number would you guys begin to play a machine like this? Newbie here. Thanks in advance.
Depends on what the overall payback of the game is. But at 1964 and .2% meter the average hit would be 1982. With .2% meter that's $9000 in action.Quote:
Originally Posted by BetMore
1982/9000 means the meter is worth 22%. That would be enough for me to spin it off without knowing the actual payback of the game.
Anyone have any stats on these new Aruze: The Brave Spirit / Tiki games? Free Games meter accumulates at different multiplier levels and then hits at some point. I haven’t run enough spins to determine if this could be a play or not. Top level games seem to hit when 190+
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I haven't see this info anywhere and i'm pretty new to slots, so the pressing question i need an answer to is: How do you hold the machine when you need to take a bathroom break? Do you ask a casino employee to hold it, do you leave a small personal item on the seat, or is there some universal signal? i haven't seen any reference to Depends, so i assume that's out of the question.
Also, i wanted to say i'm very appreciative of you publicizing your plays and math; if i were in a similar situation i'm not sure i would, out of fear of competition. i understand you're in a less-populated area, but it's still quite generous. so thanks (even if i never get a play on one).
On that last River Dragon play I had a bathroom very close to the machine. That's the first thing I check out when I know I'm going to be on a machine for awhile. I have the "young man's bladder" so have to take frequent bathroom breaks. I know well in advance whether I'm going to be on one of those plays so carry my windbreaker with me, which I frequently need in the breezy casinos anyway.Quote:
Originally Posted by cottage cheeseQuote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I haven't see this info anywhere and i'm pretty new to slots, so the pressing question i need an answer to is: How do you hold the machine when you need to take a bathroom break? Do you ask a casino employee to hold it, do you leave a small personal item on the seat, or is there some universal signal? i haven't seen any reference to Depends, so i assume that's out of the question.
Also, i wanted to say i'm very appreciative of you publicizing your plays and math; if i were in a similar situation i'm not sure i would, out of fear of competition. i understand you're in a less-populated area, but it's still quite generous. so thanks (even if i never get a play on one).
With the Buffalo Diamond 3X plays and the River Dragon plays I wait until I'm awarded free games. When I take off to the restroom I have a cup of coffee, my reading glasses, a pen, and an ashtray on the machine and my windbreaker on the back of the chair with the chair tilted forward onto the machine so no one can sit down in it. When the game is in free game mode you can't cash out the ticket so that's a blocker to anyone trying to rip me off. They are going to have to play off the free games before they can get the money. With the buffalo diamonds I don't start the free games until I get back.
The River Dragons will automatically start the free games but unless you are using the speed stop it plays real slow in free game mode. I'm usually back to the machine before the free games are over.
BTW, that last River Dragon play was at North Star Casino just outside Bowler, Wisconsin.
Would I use the above technique in Las Vegas? Fuck no. The LV thieves are to sharp. They'll speed stop those free games off lightning quick and be gone with the ticket in 30 seconds. But it works pretty good in the outback where they don't have the really experienced credit hustlers.
Mickey, are you concerned you would draw attention to yourself if you asked a slot attendant to cover?
Seems risky walking away anywhere. Thanks.
Yeah, I don't understand that. I have had slot attendants watch my machine and I just give a tip when I get back. They are asked by people to do that all the time. I think you're just asking to get ripped off. But maybe I'm missing something.
Getting a slot attendent is a pain in the butt. They aren't always around.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
Stopped by a casino that I haven't been to in years. I had been barred from throwing dice there but still had played a little VP. But has been a couple years since I was there.
Although I am not a slot player, I was walking around looking at the machines to see if there were some hanging Ocean Magic gifts or any of the other stuff mentioned by Mickey et. al. Also, I will vulture an ultimate x if I see one. As I'm wandering a host I used to know comes over to say hi and where you been and that kind of stuff. We talk cordially a few minutes and then she says they don't allow "scavenging for bonus symbols". I said I haven't made one bet--I was just walking around to see what they had since I hadn't been there for a while.
She said she knows what I was doing and that I better not continue. I had a half hour to kill so I just went and played 25 cent VP. Was getting killed and then hit a Royal (first in several years now I think) and left up a few hundred.
The point being that someone at that casino is aware of the slot vulturing.
It seems very strange to me that they have a host out there enforcing the rule.Quote:
Originally Posted by regnis
I don't know which casino Reg is referring to, but in his area, Joliet is real aggressive in throwing out machine scavengers.
Joliet has been that way forever. But it also means if a guy passing thru works it right he can make some money because of the lack of others working the games. The trick is not looking like a slot hustler. Sit down on the Golden Egypt, set it on the nickel level and start spinning. Here and there check the higher bets levels but quickly and only a couple at a time, going back to the nickel level and spinning. Give yourself some cover like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Smurger--here the host, managers, and pretty much any suit have multiple duties. But I cant say for sure she is still a host but she was for years when I was a regular.
Mickey--I am sure I looked like I was scavenging because I was walking through the whole casino checking the various denominations on all these games. So even though I wasn't playing, I know what it must have looked like. If I ever actually play (doubtful) I will try your suggestion.
Sometimes you just have to play a crappy slot for a few minutes. Call it the cost of doing business.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmJoliet has been that way forever. But it also means if a guy passing thru works it right he can make some money because of the lack of others working the games. The trick is not looking like a slot hustler. Sit down on the Golden Egypt, set it on the nickel level and start spinning. Here and there check the higher bets levels but quickly and only a couple at a time, going back to the nickel level and spinning. Give yourself some cover like that.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb