That's why they changed the name WWF to WWE . . . . They should change the NBA to NBEQuote:
Originally Posted by monet
NHL = StupidQuote:
Originally Posted by mcap
NBA = Entertainment
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That's why they changed the name WWF to WWE . . . . They should change the NBA to NBEQuote:
Originally Posted by monetNHL = StupidQuote:
Originally Posted by mcap
NBA = Entertainment
Yeah, was watching it! While my under was embarrassing (literally lost by almost 50), pretty amazing that I won by 3 in regulation when Washington was down 5 with 12 seconds left. Also, that one shot by Brooklyn with like 1 second left, which rolled around the hoop before popping out, would have pushed this the otehr way had it fallen.Quote:
Originally Posted by mcap
One of my luckiest wins in a long time.
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
The Suckramento Kings had run off 3 nice games in a row, before choking off a lead against the Heat, and barely coming up short in a 4th quarter comeback attempt.
Now they face the New Orleans Pelicans, a team which has its moments but usually isn't very good.
This one looks more like a coin flip to me, but you get a nice moderate dog line, so I like it.
Sacramento +137 at New Orleans
Won the pick, though it was looking bad at one point, with Sac down 10 in the early 4th. However, the turned it on hard at the end and won by 9.
The Pelicans are big chokers, which was part of the reason for the pick.
Toronto -6.5 at Orlando
Aaron Gordon is out for the Magic, which is a garbage team even when he's there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
New Orleans looks like a classic NBA team with oodles of firepower but whose players don't really give a rat's ass about playing a shred of defense or winning. They just want their minutes. And really, they do have a lot of firepower.
I don't ever have much to say about the NBA, but the team I can stomach watching because they are a team is Utah.
Skill sets of Pelicans just aren’t complimentary offensively. Plenty of talented players but no upper tier catch and shoot players, several complete non shooters in the starting five, Adams particularly as well as lack of overall shooting clogs the lane for Zion. Defense actually isn’t horrible both of their starting guards are quality defenders, Adams is average. Backups are pretty bad on d I guess.
5 of Utah’s 8 primary rotation players have been playing together forever Mitchell, Ingles, Favors, Gobert, O’Neal’s all been there 4+ years other than one season in NOLA for Favors, the other three in second season there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mcap
Adams has been a turnover machine recently, which really short circuits any value he has. Utah's individual players have deficiencies, but they cover for each other. Mitchell plays little defense, but it's okay. The starting point guard can only do a subset of things, but he does them well. And they appear to be well conditioned, which is probably rare in this era of covid. New Orleans either doesn't care much in crunch time or appears to run out of collective gas. Maybe it is conditioning.
Won yesterday.
No moneylines today.
OKC vs. Houston - Under 222 (Wall, Alexander, Hill out)
Milwaukee vs. Indiana - Over 233.5
Sacramento vs. Boston - Under 224 (Walker out)
2-1 yesterday. Close with the third one (Sac under), but lost by 3.
Still deciding on Lakers. May go under. Right now I'm undecided and can't fire.
Not a whole lot I like today.
I'm looking at Philly.
I typically hate favorite lines like 10 because you can be right on the money in your predictions for the game, but get screwed by trash time. Too much variance in these type of picks.
This is my first one like that in the 2020-2021 season, and it's because Portland is decimated by injuries. No McCollum, no Nurkic, no Derrick Jones, and most importantly, no Lillard. Even Nassar Little is out.
Simmons is out, announced at 3:10pm PST. Line went from 10.5 to 9.5, now back to 10.
Philadelphia -10 vs. Portland
Atlanta was at 227 earlier. I passed. Upon re-analysis of the game, I decided I like the under. I could've had 226. Now it's 221.5. Just out of principle, I want to lay off, but I can't. I think this is going under.
Trae Young out, De'Andre Hunter out
Atlanta vs. Utah - Under 221
1-1, winning the Atlanta under, losing Philly both big time.
Here's one to start off, beginning at 5:05pm PT:
Minnesota -2.5 at Oklahoma
I may have more.
Another:
Phoenix vs. Detroit - Under 213
Okay, back to the Minnesota game.
I'm going to make a second pick on it -- an over. Not really a ploppy pick because these isn't a sexy matchup for the public to bet over, but I feel it's going over nonetheless, after analyzing the game a bit further.
Minnesota vs. OKC - Over 220.5
2-1 yesterday, only losing the OKC over. Minnesota was close but barely covered.
Today:
Remember when Memphis won 7 in a row, and then had two not-very-good games following? They'll get back in the win column today:
Memphis +100 at New Orleans (+1/+1.5 spread ok)
More coming shortly
The Hawks struggled last time out with no Trae Young, but he's BACK today.
I like this one a lot. The Raptors, back-to-back on the road and off a tiring game yesterday, are going to lose to Atlanta.
Atlanta +115 vs. Toronto
Finally:
Yesterday, I had the T-Wolves in a tough contest against the Thunder. They barely covered the -2.5 by securing a victory by 3 (though I rooted for the final 3-pointer by OKC at the buzzer, because OT would have virtually guaranteed me a win on the over, while giving me a shot to still win the Wovles bet).
Anyway, OKC is going to come back strong today to split the dual game series with the Wolves.
OKC -2 vs. Minnesota
Okay, I lied. One more.
Look at Brooklyn/Philly
Durant is out.
Kyrie is out.
Embiid is sore and will either be out or not 100%.
I think the Nets over train is about to derail.
Unfortunately I noticed this late, and the line has slipped.
Brooklyn vs. Philadelphia - Under 234 (233.5 ok)
Coming into today:
Record on 1/22: 22-25 (-1.26 units)
Since then:
1/23: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
1/24: 2-0 (+1.82 units)
1/25: 2-1 (+1.61 units)
1/26: 2-0 (+1.82 units)
1/27: 1-1-1 (-0.09 units)
1/28: 1-2 (-1.09 units)
1/29: 1-2 (-0.40 units)
1/30: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
1/31: 1-1 (+1.21 units)
2/1: 1-0 (+1.37 units)
2/2: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
2/3: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
2/4: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
2/5: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
Total 1/23-2/5: (19-12-1, +8.53 units)
Grand total: 41-37-1, +7.27 units
(Note: Every bet is 1 unit)
Wild day, with the Brooklyn under coming back from the dead to barely cover, OKC blowing a 21-point halftime lead and barely squeaking into a 2-point win to give me a tie, and Memphis playing a tight one, taking a 5-point lead late, and then giving up 14 straight points to get crushed.
After the smoke cleared, I went 2-1-1 and picked up another +1.06 units.
That leaves me 21-13-2, +9.59 units since January 23, for a very nice 36-game run.
Nice!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thanks for posting a record and running total.
I went back to last year but you didn't post that information.
Seems like a lot of work.
I suppose its easier if you just make the bets from your computer or phone.
+20 units per month wouldn't be so bad if you can maintain that average.
Five games today despite the Superbowl.
I like one. It's early (10am PT).
Charlotte +105 vs. Washington
Okay, as much as I hate low lines like this in 2021, I decided I like this last-minute under
Miami at New York - Under 207
I'm not going to get 20 units per month, betting the number of games I do. That would be impossible.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetNice!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thanks for posting a record and running total.
I went back to last year but you didn't post that information.
Seems like a lot of work.
I suppose its easier if you just make the bets from your computer or phone.
+20 units per month wouldn't be so bad if you can maintain that average.
Understood.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
What is the goal?
What should we expect the upside or average units won per season?
You are trying to be in the positive at the end of the season, correct?
Personally, I just fire in the book but I'd like to be a bit more precise.
Once again my main problem is that the Book doesn't give you much for total coin in.
Basically nothing.
Of course, I suppose a person could go around and pick up all the online bonuses.
Did you see the guy a few months back who had an elaborate online poker scheme.
He had over 1000 accounts lol, picking up bonuses and putting people in the whipsaw.
They say Cheaters never win but I beg to differ.
Nice call on this one Dan. And it wasn't even a nail biter.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Gave me a little more to blow on SB.
Good Job Fellas.Quote:
Originally Posted by dannyj
I was going to bet it too but I decided to take my dogs for a walk, give them baths and nail trimmings.
Stupid Me.
Stupid Dogs.
Stupid Life.
Fuck!
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
The Bucks are 4-0 in February, winning by blowout each time. They face the enigmatic Nuggets in Denver, now 1-3 in their last four (and looking bad in all of the three losses), and the Bucks are just a 3.5 favorite.
Do you think I'm picking Milwaukee?
Of course not. That would be the ploppy play.
Denver will surprise the Bucks and hand them their first February loss.
Also, tonight the Suns and Cavaliers face each other. In the past 6 games, Cavs have scored 81, 104, 100, 99, 105, 99. Phoenix has scored 114, 111, 109, 101, 109, 100. In three of those, Phoenix also held their opponent to 91-93 points. Going with the under for this and other reasons.
Phoenix vs. Cleveland - Under 214.5
Denver +140 vs. Milwaukee
After a nice run of winning or breakeven days, I finally had a bad one. 0-2 yesterday, and neither were close.
Today:
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
Detroit +205 vs. Brooklyn
Durant out
More soon.
I need to stop reading this thread.
It's going to make me create online accounts again and those are scary.
Click, Click, Click my money away.
So far so good with Detroit, up 38-26 after 1. Long way to go, though, and the Nets can put up points quickly.
Here are two more I've been mulling over today, and have decided to fire:
Golden State -1 at San Antonio (Draymond "probable")
Philadelphia at Sacramento - Over 232
Wire-to-wire win with Detroit +205, despite them almost blowing the lead a few times.
Golden State easily won.
Philly/Sac had 137 points and it looked like it was done. Then just 93 points in the second half, and the total falls on 230. I still would have won had Sac made one of their last 2 shots, as they would have fouled after.
Still, I had a 2-1 day with almost +2 units, basically making up for yesterday's loss.
Chicago +120 vs. New Orleans
Washington vs Toronto - Over 234.5
Denver vs Cleveland - Under 219
I like the Chicago moneyline a lot.
Thank you for posting with adequate time to get to the book.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Interesting Note that you went against simpdog on the Denver/Cleveland game.
I think I'm going to remove the trolling from this thread. If Half Smoke has an issue with me, he can start it in a separate thread. This thread is for my NBA picks.
Anyway, I went 2-1 today again, with the Cleveland under being the sole loser. Cleveland was held to a low score, but their defense was absolute crap, giving up over 130 points.
My strong record on dogs continues, as Chicago easily won despite a bad 2nd quarter.
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
Last minute (well, last 10 minutes):
Houston +113 vs. Miami
Toronto +124 at Boston (reverse Trapper John pick)
Houston/Miami - Under 214
Record on 2/5: 41-37-1, +7.27 units
2/6: 2-1-1 (+1.06 units)
2/7: 1-1 (+0.05 units)
2/8: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
2/9: 2-1 (+1.96 units)
2/10: 2-1 (+1.11 units)
Total 2/6-2/10: 7-5-1 (+2.18 units)
Grand Total: 48-42-2 (+9.45 units)
(Doesn't include today's games, which haven't completed yet)
Okay, so after yesterday's 1-2 day (only the under won), let's have a comeback.
I have a moneyline for you... on a good team, for once!
Milwaukee +120 at Utah (Holiday out, Conley out)
Washington vs. New York - Over 219 (Beal out)
Dallas vs. New Orleans - Under 232.5
I stopped watching the NBA about 10 years or so ago.
What the Fuck is going on?
Dallas 143 to NOLA 130???
The Bad Boys of Detroit would never allow such nonsense.
Even though I still bet NBA I'm liking it less and less every day. Constantly have to monitor who's in and who's out with a hangnail.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
The Bad Boys of Detroit would not fly now because their common fouls would all be flagrants. Sad.
Also, I'm NOT betting against the Jazz tonight. Should not have got off that train.
After going 1-5 on Thursday and Friday, I took Saturday off.
I planned to give it a shot again today, but thought maybe one more day was better.
I did look, and liked Minnesota +300. However, I decided to pass on it, since I felt I needed one more day, and because this was also likely to extend my losing streak, being a +300 bet, and I didn't want that demoralizing me.
Final score:
Minnesota 116, Toronto 112
Would have been my biggest underdog hit of the season.
I feel you Dan. Going through a tough patch too.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Gotta keep firing.
Last minute:
Chicago +170 at Indiana
Chicago/Indiana - Under 223.5
I should have had them both on Monday, but the game went into OT, killing my under.
The +170 hit though, so I still won 0.7 units.
Anyway, here's today's:
I'm posting this 12 hours before game time.
Sacramento -103 vs. Miami (Dragic doubtful, Leonard out, Barnes out, Holmes out)
Sac +1 -115 or better is okay here too.
Sac got clobbered yesterday, moving me to 2-7 in my last 9. Ouch.
There are some hot and not-so-hot teams in the NBA right now.
Phoenix is one of those hot teams. They reeled off 6 wins in a row, before finally losing by 4 to the equally hot Nets. They should easily handle the choking Pelicans today, and avenge their ugly 22-point loss to them on February 3.
Phoenix -3.5 at New Orleans
The NBA has been heading in the direction of every-game-is-an-exhibition-game for awhile now. Players are in control. Coaches have become less authoritarian. Rest days and days off for minor ailments are common, and with the mega-possessions now routine every game, maybe even necessary. But I think covid has pushed the league into almost a full scale 72-game exhibition season. Some teams (Utah, Denver, the Lakers for a quarter a game, etc.) actually care night in and night out; but it's increasingly rare. It's become more art form and skill display than athletic contest.
Timeouts get taken, not because coaches have anything real to say, but because that's what you're supposed to do when the other team has gone on a run.
Anyway, my point is that yesterday's Miami/Sacramento game was classic. Multiple players out, combinations you would not see outside of an exhibition game, and coaches trying to plug people in at the wrong times because that's how they're supposed to manage minutes. Any team with Jimmy Butler on the floor will have some intensity, so Miami wins on cruise control. It was more exhibition than competition.
And I think that's true for the majority of NBA games this year.
Moneyline!!
Chicago +270 at Philadelphia
Simmons probable
1-1 yesterday. Phoenix won by 18 despite being down 11 after 3 (!!), and Chicago had a chance to tie in the final minute, but lost by 7.
Today:
Golden State -2 at Charlotte
Unbelievable bad beat on that Golden State game. They blew a late 10-point lead and Draymond's double-technical with 9s left led to a loss, despite having the ball with 16 seconds left, up 2.
I can't believe I'm betting the Knicks as a favorite, but...
NY -3 vs. Minnesota
Also:
Philadelphia -3 at Toronto
Raptors streak will break tonight.
1-1, winning Philly barely
Today:
Sacramento +210 at Brooklyn
Minnesota +10.5 at Milwaukee
Two more, regarding the Philly/Toronto game:
Philadelphia -2.5 at Toronto
Philadelphia/Toronto - Under 222
2-2 yesterday
Won both Philly bets, lost the other two
Today:
Houston at Cleveland - Over 220
Atlanta +115 vs Boston (Kemba Walker out)
One more:
Toronto +112 at Miami
Dragic questionable (and even if he plays, I imagine he will be rusty and held to a minutes limit)
Lowry probable
1-2 yesterday, winning only Atlanta +115, for an 0.85 unit loss overall.
Today:
Sacramento -105 at New York (spread up to -1 ok)
Denver -7.5 vs. Washington
Memphis vs. Clippers - Under 225.5
1-2 again, winning only the Memphis under.
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
Miami +215 vs. Utah
I need to pray that Adebayo, currently with some knee pain, will feel better today and play. He's listed as "questionable", but I'm leaning on the side of him playing. Tragic Dragic should be off the minutes restriction.
Also:
Memphis vs. Clippers - Under 224.5 (let's do yesterday's winner again)
Two more:
Golden State -6 vs. Charlotte (-6.5 ok)
Toronto vs. Houston - Under 218.5 (Siakam out)
And...............
Let's make it an even 5
Utah/Miami - Over 220 (220.5 ok)
Nice day yesterday. Hit everything except the Houston under, going 4-1, plus one of the wins was +215, so I won almost 4 units.
Got one for you right now... still looking at the rest.
Philadelphia vs. Cleveland - Under 222
One more under:
Oklahoma City vs. Denver - Under 220.5 (Milsap out, Harris out)
BREAKING NEWS
Kyrie OUT today
Total for Nets falling FAST
Brooklyn vs. Dallas - Under 233 (232 ok)
I've been staring at this one all day, and decided to fire.
Oklahoma City +225 vs. Denver
I already have the under on that game.
"I already have the under on that game." ---> Muriel and the Orange Death.
https://anagram-solver.net/I%20alrea....?partial=true
Noticed this, yesterday, but, thought I'd wait to see what happened.
2-2 yesterday. Weird finish, as one of the unders which looked good ended up losing in a bizarre final 90 seconds in a blowout game (the OKC one), and one of the unders which looked dead at halftime ended up easily covering (Nets). The moneyline lost, making me lose both OKC bets, but I won the Philly under to split the day.
Minnesota vs. Phoenix - Under 225
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
Golden State +130 at Lakers (sorry fellow Lakers fans)
Washington +185 at Boston (Jaylen Brown out, Washington has been excellent past 8 games - but they are playing back to back)
Lakers/Golden State - Under 220
Split 'em again, though I got royally screwed on the Washington +185. They were up 5 with 46 seconds, and were still up with 12 seconds and had the ball! How do you lose that?
*** MONEYLINE ALERT ***
I've lost my last 3 moneyline picks, but that doesn't worry me. Washington should've won last night.
I'll take another shot at beating Denver.
Chicago +160 at Denver (Milsap out)
Monitoring the Philly game, as there are 3 questionable players, including Embiid.
Two more.
Charlotte at Portland - Over 230 (230.5 ok)
San Antonio vs. Brooklyn - Under 233
Embiid and Brogdon both played, so I passed on the Philly game.
1-2 yesterday. Heartbreaker with the Brooklyn under. 104-93 with only 3 mins left to play, score ends up 108-108, sending it to OT and killing my great under, which otherwise had covered by 17. Chicago also blew a 6-point lead late.
Terrible.
I did hit the over. Should've gone 3-0, or at least 2-1.
Today:
Starting at 4:05 PT
Memphis at Washington - Over 238.5
More later
I should be 7-1 in my last 8 totals picks. I'm 6-2 because of that stupid OT yesterday.
Anyway, here's two more:
San Antonio vs. New York - Under 214
Milwaukee vs. Denver - Under 234
FYI the San Antonio game has a ton of missing players.
San Antonio: Aldridge, White, Weatherspoon, Vassell, Gay
New York: Rose, Payton, Gibson, Robinson
2-1, losing only the Washington game, which had a bad 3rd quarter and failed to go over by just 2.5 points.
Here's my current record:
I've slipped a bit since my peak on February 10th. However, I'm still up 5 units, down from a peak of 9.45.
Record on 2/10: 48-42-2 (+9.45 units)
2/11: 1-2 (-1.09 units)
2/12: 0-3 (-3.00 units)
2/15: 1-1 (+0.70 units)
2/18: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
2/19: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
2/20: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
2/21: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
2/23: 2-2 (-0.18 units)
2/24: 1-2 (-0.85 units)
2/25: 1-2 (-1.09 units)
2/26: 4-1 (+3.88 units)
2/27: 2-2 (-0.18 units)
2/28: 2-2 (-0.18 units)
3/01: 1-2 (-1.09 units)
3/02: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
TOTAL 2/11-3/02: 19-24 (-4.44 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 67-66-2 (+5.01 units)
Orlando +120 vs. Atlanta (Reddish out, Capela questionable, Ennis out, Fournier questionable)
Orlando vs. Atlanta - Under 219
Charlotte -3 at Minnesota
Dallas vs. Oklahoma City - Under 220 (Doncic doubtful)
Lakers at Sacramento - Under 223.5 (Lebron out, Davis still out, Gasol out, Kuzma questionable, Caruso questionable, Hield questionable, Parker questionable, Whiteside out, Woodard out)
Still watching Detroit as a possible moneyline pick. Jerami Grant is questionable. If he plays, I'm probably firing on them.
And another. This is the most picks I've made this season in a day. If I make one more, it will be an all time record for number of picks in a day.
Charlotte vs. Minnesota - Over 234.5
You have to do 1 more pick, we want to see history in the making!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
3-3 yesterday. Should've been 4-2, but Orlando blew a 17-point halftime lead and lost in the final minutes. Terrible.
Today:
Clippers at Washington - Over 236
Also I'm going to throw in a ploppy pick:
Milwaukee -6.5 at Memphis
Maybe more later.
Stop saying shoulda, coulda, woulda.
At the end of the day you count up your money or units.
That's the only way to measure.
Either you get paid for your bet, you push or you lose.
None of this bullshit about how things should of gone.
Throwing in another:
Detroit at New York - Under 207 (206.5 ok)
True and not true.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
The quality of your picks isn't just dictated by actual win/losses but also how close they were. If you make 6 picks, and 3 are blowout wins and 3 are close losses, those were six good picks. You just fell on the wrong side of variance for those six. Similarly, if you made an under pick which wins by a wide margin in regulation, but you get fucked by OT and lose, it was a good pick. On the flip side, if you make an over pick which easily loses in regulation, but the bet wins thanks to OT, it was a bad pick where got lucky.
So it's important to note when you are seemingly seeing things well, and when you are just getting lucky or unlucky.
I will tweak things when I'm perceiving that I'm losing due to making actual bad picks, rather than just bad luck.
Yeah, like if Binnington "wouldn'ta" fucked me by losing the PL by giving one up with 8 seconds to go after just surviving a 6 on 4. I woulda and coulda won my parlay.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
I thought your picks were pretty good yesterday Dan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffTrue and not true.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet
The quality of your picks isn't just dictated by actual win/losses but also how close they were. If you make 6 picks, and 3 are blowout wins and 3 are close losses, those were six good picks. You just fell on the wrong side of variance for those six. Similarly, if you made an under pick which wins by a wide margin in regulation, but you get fucked by OT and lose, it was a good pick. On the flip side, if you make an over pick which easily loses in regulation, but the bet wins thanks to OT, it was a bad pick where got lucky.
So it's important to note when you are seemingly seeing things well, and when you are just getting lucky or unlucky.
I will tweak things when I'm perceiving that I'm losing due to making actual bad picks, rather than just bad luck.
I was on the Hornets -3 and the Mavs under but that Magic game did in my parlay. Shit I am one of Red's dumb asses.