This one is starting later:
Cincinnati (Castillo) +125 at San Diego (Lamet)
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This one is starting later:
Cincinnati (Castillo) +125 at San Diego (Lamet)
Split yesterday, winning under, losing Reds.
Today:
Texas (Gibson) +108 vs. Oakland (Montas)
Won yesterday.
If you can still find RHE bets (they're back on Betanysports, btw):
Mets (Stroman) vs. Atlanta (Morton) - Under 24.5 RHE -115
Here are two later games, which I also hope win as a Dodgers fan:
Dodgers (Kershaw) -114 at San Diego (Snell)
Angels (Heaney) -122 vs. San Francisco (DeSclafani)
1-2 yesterday, but won the RHE.
So here's another RHE, starting in a few:
Toronto (Ray) at Miami (Rogers) - Under 23 RHE +100
Won yesterday's RHE bet.
Here's a regular one starting 11:05am PDT
Texas (Allard) +135 vs. Oakland (Bassitt)
Lost yesterday.
Got two MLB unders:
Angels (Cannings) at Tampa (Kittredge) - Under 8 -115
Boston (M. Perez) at Yankees (German) - Under 10.5 -115
Pretty amazing these both won yesterday.
Angels/Tampa was 3-3 after 2 1/2 innings.
NY/Boston was 3-3 after 1 1/2 innings.
I'll take it.
Through 6/17: 47-40-4 (+8.25 units)
6/18: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
6/20: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
6/21: 1-0 (+1.08 units)
6/22: 1-2 (-1.13 units)
6/23: 1-0 (+1.00 units)
6/24: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
6/25: 2-0 (+1.74 units)
Total 6/18-6/25: 6-6 (-0.36 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 53-46-4 (+7.89 units)
Starting now
Atlanta over 9.5 -110
Miami +115
Lost both yesterday.
Last minute:
Kansas City (Duffy) +141 at Boston (Richards)
Here's one with more time to bet:
Milwaukee (Peralta) vs. Cubs (Hendricks) - Under 7.5 -120 (Under 7 -105 or better ok)
Lost both, even though KC was up 5-1. Ugh.
Here's 2 for today:
Atlanta (Fried) vs Mets (Peterson) - Over 9 -105
Minnesota (Ober) +113 at White Sox (Cease)
Split yesterday, neither were close. Over covered in the 4th.
Here's a morning game for you:
Seattle (Kikuchi) +175 at Toronto (Ryu)
Asian on Asian violence.
Seattle has looked much better lately, as has Kikuchi.
Nice call Dan! Should have tailed you but Seattle has been one of those teams that seem to screw me whether I’m on or against them. Last time I saw Kikuchi he was dealing. Real nasty stuff.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thanks, Danny. Yeah Seattle is one to watch, especially Kikuchi.
Starting at 4:20pm PT:
2 picks 1 game
Miami +101 (P. Lopez) at Atlanta (Smyly)
Miami/Atlanta - Under 9 -112
If you missed that, here's one more moneyline:
St. Louis (Oveido) -110 at Colorado (C. Gonzalez)
Two titans of pitching in Coors Field. Buckle up.
2-1 yesterday, losing only the Miami +101 bet.
--
Kyle Muller is doing well so far in MLB, but only has pitched 10 innings.
In the minors, he wasn't looking particularly impressive -- 4.60 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and 41/19 K/BB ratio through 31 1/3 innings.
This guy is cruisin' for an MLB bruisin'.
Miami (Alcantara) +110 at Atlanta (Muller)
One more.
Baltimore (Lopez) at Angels (Cobb) - Under 9.5 -120
2-0 yesterday.
Two of baseball's better 2020 pitchers are really bad this year, and are facing one another.
Keller is the worst in the AL. Maeda isn't the worst, but has also been pretty bad.
Keller's ERA is over 9.00 over his past 5 starts, and yet there wasn't one particular start which was substantially worse than the other.
Minnesota (Maeda) at Kansas City (Keller) - Over 10 -120
Lost yesterday.
RHE Bet
Dodgers (Buehler) at Miami (T. Rogers) - Under 23.5 R+H+E -110
Lost the RHE bet above.
Remember I said to ride Kikuchi and the Mariners?
3 ER over last 26 2/3 innings, spanning 4 games.
Seattle (Kikuchi) +101 vs. Yankees (German)
German didn't start, so this is a no-bet record-wise, even though I'm getting screwed over by Betanysports, which snuck in an "all bets are action" clause when the software change occurred. Dirty.
Anyway, here's one today:
One MLB today, I think.
Baltimore (Tate) vs. Toronto (Manoah) - Under 11 -115
Manoah has looked excellent as of late. And Tate? Well, this is a bullpen game for the Orioles. But I like this under a lot.
RAINOUT
Makeup pick.
Philadelphia (Eflin) -102 at Cubs (Alzolay)
Won the Philly game easily.
Got two overs for you today.
Philadelphia (V. Velasquez) at Boston (G. Richards) - Over 11 -110
Oakland (Irvin) at Texas (Lyles) - Over 9 -120
I'm sure even the ploppies can get on board with these picks.
Split the two, with the Philly over covering before half the game was complete!
Another Cubs fade.
St. Louis (Kim) +105 at Cubs (Davies)
Won yesterday easily.
Last minute but here you go. I hate low totals like these, but I'm making an exception.
Atlanta (I. Anderson) at Miami (P. Lopez) - Under 6.5 +105
Not a good start in the above game, as Miami's Aguilar popped a 3-run HR in the first. This is why I hate 6.5 unders.
On the plus side, Pablo Lopez is dealing, as I expected, striking out 6 of 6 batters faced thus far.
Anyway here is another one, for all you plops out there:
Milwaukee -1.5 (Woodruff) +135 vs. Cincinnati (L. Castillo)
Detroit (Manning) vs. Texas (Lyles) - Under 9.5 -113
Won on Wednesday.
Today:
St. Louis (Leblanc) at Cincinnati (Mahle) - Under 9.5 -110
Lost yesterday.
I've told you guys I hate totals like 6.5 and 7, so I won't go that way today.
I'll go the alternate RHE route.
Pitcher's duel today with Rodon & Woodruff.
White Sox (Rodon) at Milwaukee (Woodruff) - Under 24 R+H+E -135
Won the RHE on Saturday
Okay, here's an under 6.5 I can get behind
Atlanta (Muller) at Mets (Stroman) - Under 6.5 -115 -- 7 INNING GAME -- GAME 1 OF DH
Won yesterday easily.
Today:
Baltimore (Watkins) vs. Miami (Alcantara) - Under 9 -102
St. Louis (Wainwright) -111 at Cleveland (Quantrill)
Split yesterday, winning Cardinals.
Here's one for today:
Boston (Houck) at Toronto (Matz) - Under 8.5 -121 - Game 2 (7 inn)
Won the Boston under 2 days ago.
Here are 3 picks for you, 2 being totals:
Philadelphia (Vasquez) at Pittsburgh (Crowe) - Over 9 -115
Mets (Carrasco) -138 vs Cincinnati (Gray)
Toronto (Stripling) vs Kansas City (Lynch) - Under 10 -105
Pittsburgh over looked good when it was up 5-0 early, then scoring just collapsed.
Also got fucked in that Toronto under which looked great in the 7th and then ended up tying.
Mets just sucked.
0-2-1 yesterday, blah.
Today:
Minnesota (Ober) +120 at St. Louis (Woodford)
Seattle (Ty Anderson) at Texas (Hearn) - Over 8.5 -110
2-0 on Saturday, but got lucky to win Seattle over.
One game interests me today.
Milwaukee (Lauer) vs Pittsburgh (B. Wilson) - Over 9 -110
Ugh. Late scoring rally fell a tiny bit short, with Pittsburgh leaving the bases loaded in the 9th, down 6-2.
Today:
I told you earlier this season to watch Yusei Kikuchi, as there's often value with him. He had a few rough games recently (not ones I bet), but he continues to strike people out -- even in his bad starts -- and has a 124/38 K/BB ratio. In his past 9 starts, he has struck out 6 or more each time. He needs to get the HR ball under control (8 HR allowed in past 6 starts, with a minimum of 1 each time), but overall I see this year as a big improvement. Seattle has been surprising overall this year, and is in the playoff hunt.
Seattle (Kikuchi) +143 at Tampa Bay (Patino)
Won the Seattle game, similar toh ow I said it would go.
Early game today:
Braxton Garrett did a great job last time out against the Padres, and he's facing ancient Rich Hill of the Mets, who has pitched about 5 innings max in the past 2 months, and despite that has allowed 3-4 ER in 7 of his past 9 starts.
Miami (B. Garrett) +118 vs. NY Mets (Hill)
Perhaps more later.
Nice win by Miami to start the day.
Ready for some gambling?
Two inconsistent pitchers tonight. Either can pitch well or get bombed. Triston McKenzie for Cleveland versus Ross Stripling of Toronto.
Cleveland (McKenzie) +184 at Toronto (Stripling)
Lost that Cleveland game, so 1-1 yesterday.
Starting soon:
Tampa Bay (Yarbrough) at Baltimore (Means) - Over 10 -105
Starting in about an hour:
St. Louis (Wainwright) vs Kansas City (Minor) - Under 8 -115
Minnesota (Ober) +178 at Houston (Greinke)
3-0 yesterday, though the Minnesota one took 11 innings and had to come back from 3-0 down early.
Starting at 4:15pm PT:
Kansas City (Keller) at St. Louis (Kim) - Over 8.5 -115
St. Louis blew bases loaded, nobody out in the 6th, up 5-2. Scoring died after that, and I lost. Annoying.
Today:
Late game. Starts 7:10pm PDT.
San Diego (Musgrove) vs. Miami (Z. Thompson) - Under 7.5 -120
ugh, 4-1 in the 8th with 2 out, and the under easily lost.
Kinda feel like I've taken beats the last two days to lose each of those games.
Here's two picks starting soon, hopefully better luck:
Cleveland (McKenzie) +132 vs. Oakland (Manea)
Boston (E. Rodriguez) -118 vs. Tampa Bay (Patino)
Leading both late, lost both, one in extras. The 4th bad beat in a row. Ouch!
Wavered back and forth on this, but I'm firing, hoping to break by 4-game streak of late game bad beats.
San Francisco (Gausman) vs Arizona (M. Kelly) - Under 7.5 +102
Kelly has actually been damn solid over his past 9 starts -- something lost when looking at how bad the Diamondbacks are overall.
Lost 5 in a row, 4 of which were good picks with a high % to win late in the game. So it's just running bad, but I took a break anyway.
Here are some today:
Washington (J. Gray) +156 vs. Atlanta (Morton)
Colorado (Gomber) +190 at San Francisco (DeSclafani)
Washington starts soon (4:10 PDT)
Note that DeScalfani had two bad starts back-to-back, then went on the DL. Then they diagnosed him with "shoulder fatigue". Now, after a 10-day stay, he's back, supposedly better. Do you trust him to have a good outing? Austin Gomber, by the way, has been very good as of late, pitching well in 3 of his 4 last starts, and having a similar pattern prior to being on the DL himself, which he got off in mid-July. He can have his blowup bad outings, but usually you're getting either a solid 6 or something dominant.
Ouch another two losses, including Washington which was ahead for awhile, and had chances to tie/win several times once behind.
Today:
Battle of the Asian pitchers
Seattle (Kikuchi) +128 vs Toronto (Ryu)
Finally snapped the losing streak on Saturday.
Now let's go against Seattle.
Starting at 5:05pm PT
Texas (Hearn) +120 vs. Seattle (Ty Anderson)
Seattle taught me a lesson for challenging them and their surprising value this year.
Let's go back to a total.
Atlanta (Morton) at Miami (Luzardo) - OVER 7.5 -120
Won yesterday.
Starting 4:05 PT
Yankees (Taillon) vs Minnesota (Gant) - Under 10 -105
Lost that one a week ago, above.
I haven't posted much baseball, but here's a double pick starting very shortly:
Oakland (Kaprielian) +114 vs. Yankees (Taillon)
Oakland/Yankees under 8.5 +100
Lost both. Oakland was down 6-0, came back to 6-6, lost in extras.
Today:
Atlanta -128 (I. Anderson) vs. San Francisco (DeSclafani)
Here's an over for you. I won my Atlanta pick yesterday easily.
Baltimore (Ellis) at Toronto (Ray) - Over 9 -120
Won the Baltimore over... barely.
Today:
Failpitcher v Failpitcher
Minnesota (Dobnak) at Tampa Bay (Wacha) - OVER 9 -110
Close loss in yesterday's over. Ugh.
Here's an under for today:
Boston (Houck) vs. Cleveland (Morgan) - Under 9.5 -115
Won that Boston over on Saturday.
Today:
Here's two coming up very soon:
Cleveland (Civale) vs. Minnesota (Gant) - Over 10.5 -105
Pittsburgh (D. Peters) -109 vs. Detroit (W. Peralta)
Possibly more later.
Split these on Sept 7, wining Pitts and losing the over.
Haven't posted a play in 9 days.... heres one:
San Francisco (Gausman) vs. San Diego (P. Johnson) - Under 8 -115
Lost yesterday.
Here's 2 today:
Yankees (Kluber) vs Cleveland (Plesac) - Under 9 -120
KC (Heasley) vs Seattle (Flexen) - Under 9 -115
Went 2-0 on two close ones yesterday
Last minute:
Mets (Carrasco) vs. Philadelphia (Nola) - Over 7.5 -115
Won Saturday.
Starting shortly:
Philadelphia (Suarez) vs Baltimore (Means) - Under 8 -120
Won yesterday easily.
Today:
Okay, here are two today... a battle of good AL teams, plus an over.
Tampa (Rasmussen) +100 vs. Toronto (Manoah)
Houston (Urquidy) at Angels (Naughton) - Over 9 -120
Manoah had a great outing last time (8 shutout innings, 1 hit), but it was his first strong outing in awhile, and he hasn't pitched in 8 days. Expect a letdown here against the Rays and the underrated Drew Rasmussen. A lot of variance on this line, but you can get +100 on BOL right now.
Split 'em yesterday. Won the over.
Here is a rare late season dog pick today, plus actually fading the Giants at near even money. Yes, it's THAT Scott Kazmir on the mound.
Yes, it's actually a pitcher named Junk.
San Diego (V. Velazquez) -110 vs. San Francisco (Kazmir)
Angels (Junk) +184 vs. Houston (Luis Garcia)
Angels were up 5-3 in the 8th, then had TWO chances at easy walkoff runs in extras. Lost in the 12th, and I went 0-2.
I hate to repeat yesterday's mistake backing the Angels, but...
Angels (Cobb) +148 vs. Houston (McCullers)
Okay, squeaked by with that last Angels pick, winning and taking the +148 dog.
Here's another +148 for you.
Josiah Gray was sent to the Nationals by the Dodgers in the Scherzer/Turner trade, and.... so far he hasn't been very good. His ERA is near 6.00, and he had 4 straight starts recently where he gave up 5-6 ER in 3-5 innings. Ouch.
However, his last start looked much better -- 6 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8K. Granted, it was against the Marlins, but it was his control plaguing him the prior two starts, and he righted that ship.
But you know who also hasn't been very good lately? German Marquez, who has pitched poorly in 6 of his past 8 starts, including the last 2, one of which was against these same Washignton Nationals.
In a meaningless battle of two teams with clinched losing records, go with the dog here.
Washington (Jo. Gray) +148 at Colorado (G. Marquez)
Won again... and once again there was drama in the 9th.
Okay, so I've hit 2 decent dogs in a row, let's keep it going...
Atlanta (Morton) vs. Philadelphia (Wheeler) - Under 7.5 -110
Kansas City (Singer) -118 vs. Cleveland (Civale)
Hit 'em both yesterday.
Just one today... I think.
Baltimore (Lowther) vs. Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9.5 -110
Always felt Eovaldi was overrated and overpaid, and I still think that. However, he did roll off 7 straight decent starts from August 11th to September 19, before getting shellacked by the Yankees last time out. But we will forgive that, and this is a much easier matchup.
Won again yesterday.
Let's attempt to continue the streak.
The one starts at 3:35pm PDT.
Pittsburgh (Yajure) vs. Cubs (Steele) - Under 8.5 -105
Battle of the failteams. Battle of the rookies.
Both profile as ones who can probably handle fail lineups fairly well, but struggle against tough offensive squads. Steele has particularly good stuff (52K in 50 IP this year), but his command has been off, and he's given up a lot of HR lately.
Wouldn't be surprising to see both of them pitch well here, though neither will be in for a lot of innings.
Really annoying. Pittsburgh didn't score, as I thought might happen. Cubs hammered Yajure and were up 7-0 after 3. Yet here we are in the 9th, and it's only 9-0. One fewer run and I would've won anyway, most likely. Oh well.
Time to fire on another one I like
Battle of the has-beens:
Arizona (Bumgarner) at San Francisco (Kazmir) - Over 8.5 -110
1-1 yesterday.
I really hate unders like these, but it's hard to ignore this one, because it looks pretty good.
Philadelphia (Suarez) at Miami (S. Alcantara) - Under 6.5 -110
I realllllllly hate betting under 6.5 because you are fucked if the score goes 3-3.
Both of these pitchers have looked excellent recently, aside from one not-so-good one for Alcantara last time out at Tampa. But even in that one Alcantara didn't walk anyone, and his control has been excelelnt lately. Suarez is coming off a CG shutout against the Pirates.
This is a meaningless game in the standings, as both teams are clinched out of the postseason. Only Dodgers/Giants games matter at this point in the NL.
Well, as much as I hated the 6.5 total, it covered. Another win.
Guys, look at this weirdness.
At 7:45am, line on Pittsburgh Pirates was +153. Then it slowly drifted down to +140, then back up to +145.
Then POW a 10-point drop a few minutes ago.
Now +135 pretty much everywhere. I was in the process of analyzing it and getting close to posting this pick when that happened. Ouch.
Sharps seem to like this one. Public is on the Reds, behind Mahle, who had a pretty good year (13-6, 3.54 ERA, 204/62 K-BB ratio), against the 100-loss Pirates and a pitcher who, aside from decent 2 starts (one of them being last time), has gotten hit pretty hard.
But let's go with it...
Pittsburgh (Kranick) +135 vs. Cincinnati (Mahle)
Came back from down 5-0 to win yesterday. Nice!
Here's some totals for the final MLB game.
Every single baseball game starts between 12:05pm and 12:20pm PDT.
Angels (Detmers) at Seattle (Ty Andreson) - OVER 7.5 -110
Miami (P. Lopez) vs. Philadelpha (Falter) - UNDER 7.5 -120
White Sox (Cease) vs. Destroit (T. Alexander) - UNDER 8 -110
These should, for the most part, be my last picks, though I may through an occasional pick out during the postseason.
Been a long time since I posted my record!
Through 6/25: 53-46-4 (+7.89 units)
Since then:
6/27: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
6/28: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
6/30: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
7/01: 1-0 (+1.75 units)
7/02: 2-1 (+0.80 units)
7/03: 2-0 (+1.93 units)
7/04: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
7/05: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
7/07: NO BET (pitcher didn't go)
7/08: 1-0 (+0.98 units)
7/09: 1-1 (-0.05 units)
7/10: 1-0 (+1.05 units)
7/11: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
7/21: 1-0 (+0.88 units)
7/23: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
7/24: 1-0 (+0.74 units)
7/26: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
7/27: 1-1 (-0.10 units)
7/28: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
7/30: 0-2-1 (-2.00 units)
7/31: 2-0 (+2.11 units)
8/02: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/03: 1-0 (+1.43 units)
8/05: 1-1 (+0.18 units)
8/06: 3-0 (+3.60 units)
8/07: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/09: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/10: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
8/11: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/13: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
8/14: 1-0 (+1.28 units)
8/17: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/18: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
8/19: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
8/26: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
8/29: 1-0 (+0.78 units)
8/30: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
9/03: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
9/04: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
9/07: 1-1 (-0.08 units)
9/16: 0-1 (-1.00 units)
9/17: 2-0 (+1.70 units)
9/18: 1-0 (+0.87 units)
9/20: 1-0 (+0.83 units)
9/21: 1-1 (-0.17 units)
9/22: 0-2 (-2.00 units)
9/23: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
9/27: 1-0 (+1.48 units)
9/28: 2-0 (+1.76 units)
9/29: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
9/30: 1-1 (-0.09 units)
10/1: 1-0 (+0.91 units)
10/2: 1-0 (+1.35 units)
10/3: 2-1 (+0.82 units)
TOTAL 6/27-10/3: 42-36-1 (+6.31 units)
GRAND TOTAL: 95-82-5 (+14.20 units)
Total games bet with result: 182
Total ROI: +7.80%
The end helped. In the final 12 games I bet, I went 10-2 with a +8.68 unit profit.
Very solid season. Only real trouble occurred between August 7 and August 26, where I went 2-11 and lost 8.89 units.
I won't be betting much on the playoffs.
Now What, Half Smoke??