When you win three NFL games by a total of 6 1/2 points, you know you are hot.
Congrats. Tremendous season.
I had that Wash/NYG game teased with the Over, by the way. Over 33 -- I timed it well and avoided that extra half a point.
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When you win three NFL games by a total of 6 1/2 points, you know you are hot.
Congrats. Tremendous season.
I had that Wash/NYG game teased with the Over, by the way. Over 33 -- I timed it well and avoided that extra half a point.
Yeah definitely got lucky with today's 3-0. Not only did the Washington under look like it was in trouble at the half, it went into OT with 40 points, needing no scoring to win! And somehow that happened. Then the Raiders covered the under by 2.5, and the "big winner" of the day was the Raiders covering the spread by 4.5.
40-16-1 now, +24.97 units
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
This is the best NFL season I have seen to this point in my 45 years of doing this. Really good job of taking what you want when it's there and not getting locked into some minimum or maximum number of plays, which is always artificial and often stupid. You are killing it.
As far as football overall goes, yours is the second best season I have seen to this point. A guy killed it against me about 12 years ago in an online competition that monitored about 50 handicappers. He destroyed Mountain West and Pac 12 college totals -- just obliterated them with a relatively high volume. Your season is second to that guy's season overall as far as what I've seen, and I've followed almost all of the major contests and monitored records. One guy, who I've met, swept the major five-games-a-week Las Vegas NFL contests about 20 years ago with startling records -- in the 67% range. He had just the max entries allowed for himself, but wasn't coordinating other entries, so that was monstrous. What Fezzik did years later, with the back-to-back at SuperBook, was astounding, but he was coordinating stuff, although the ones in his name were indeed his lead entries from what I understand.
Fezzik, however, was more of a contest player than a gambler. Not a story for public consumption.
Well, thank you. I appreciate all of the kind words during this NFL season. My college football season was very mediocre until my recent 9-1 run, which changed it to "good", but nothing like this NFL season.
I just have one pick today -- a moneyline dog.
As much as I hate the crappy Saints, I believe they will win tonight. They handed me my first loss of the season, so hopefully they don't hand me my 17th as well.
New Orleans +162 at Tampa Bay
That was brutal. Points win, but not the ML. It takes some work to tag Dan with a loss. Saints should be shot for blowing that game.
What did I have? Something that should have lost -- Teased the Over at 33 with the best of the lines earlier in the week, which is why I shop 'til I drop. Teasers that push one leg are pushes.
If Tampa were playing in another division, everyone would be commenting on Brady's degradation. Instead, they're commenting on his heroics.
That pass when he chose to throw to Julio Jones running a fly on the right sideline (and the pass just missed) instead of the more open WR deep down the left sideline gives you a clue how he has to reset and gather himself to make that kind of throw. He can't just pivot and do it, which means he's "cheating" before the play unfolds and committing in his mind to one side of the field or the other.
Monet, remember when we were discussing Brady pre-season? How's that ATS anti-Brady doing?
Yeah redeitz said it all. That loss was just really really brutal.
A bit late to the party (game is an hour away), but I'm firing on the total on tonight's Raiders game.
Raiders at Rams - Under 41.5
Easy winner.
Now 41-17-1, +24.88 units
Detroit -2 -116 vs Minnesota
Jacksonville +155 at Tennessee
Jacksonville at Tennessee - Under 41 -107
Buffalo vs Jets - Under 43
Cincinnati vs Cleveland - Under 46.5
Charmed NFL season continues.
Went 4-1, only losing Jacksonville under. The +155 Jax moneyline bet easily won. Only close win was the Buffalo under, and even that was on pace to win the whole way. Up 3.28 units today.
Now 45-18-1, +28.16 units
I see this SF game as another trap line, similar to the Minnesota/Detroit one we just saw.
Mind you, I don't feel about Seattle like I felt about the Lions. I was begging everyone I knew to lay off that Vikings bet they wanted to make.
Seattle is 7-6, but they haven't yet beaten a good team. Their victories were over Denver (awful), Detroit (mediocre), Arizona (bad), LA Chargers (inconsistent), Arizona again, NY Giants (in a tailspin), and the LA Rams (bad). A victory over the Niners would be their biggest accomplishment this season.
Also, the Niners have won six in a row, including that drubbing of Brady 35-7 on Sunday. The last time they allowed more than 17 points was October 23. No team has allowed fewer points this season than the Niners, and only one (Buffalo) is anywhere close.
I get all that. However, Vegas doesn't give anything away, and usually when there's a line like this, it means something. Remember, the Seahawks are just a hair away from getting into that playoff zone, whereas the Niners have much less to play for tonight.
Seattle +160 vs San Francisco (+3 ok)
Lost the Seattle game.
Today:
Indianapolis +175 at Minnesota
Buffalo vs Miami - Under 43.5
A long time ago, in a universe far, far away, I had the Houston Oilers at between 15-1 and 20-1 to win the AFC and between 30-1 and 40-1 to win the SB. I watched the game unfold in the Golden Nugget, then got up early in the third quarter and went to my room because I could smell it coming. I herewith pass the baton for worst loss ever to Todd, with a ML wager on the Colts (and the fact he didn't take the points -- a winner) ranking as worse than the Houston Oiler collapse. I salute this loss. It was memorable.
If that's what it takes to beat Todd in 2022 NFL, so be it.
I was at The Bike playing poker, and we were all watching the Colts game on the giant TV. I told everyone about my moneyline pick, and I looked like a genius during the first half. One guy at the table kept popping off that the Vikings would come back, even when down 20-0. By the end, everyone simply felt bad for me, including the floorman. That game was the talk of the room. I will probably never see anything like it again in my lifetime.
This now marks two consecutive super-embarrassing 4th quarters. In one, they gave up 33 points in the final quarter after holding close for the first three. Then there was this fiasco. Matt Ryan sucks, the coaching sucks, and this team sucks.
The Oilers game came up while at the table, by the way. Someone recalled watching it as a kid.
This was my first 3-game NFL losing streak of the season, and my record is now 45-21-1, +25.16 units
Still looking at a few potential totals, but probably going to skip them.
Right now it might be just this moneyline dog and that's it.
Jacksonville +175 vs Dallas (+4 ok)
Many people would not go with a single +175 pick when on their first 3-game losing streak on the season, but here we are.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Two things about that Oilers game.
I was sitting with a bunch of Asian high rollers at the Nugget watching the game. When I got up to leave (early third quarter -- I could smell disaster), one of them asked me who I had. I said the Oilers. He was impressed that I sat with them, and they could not tell who I had.
Second, and I won't forget this. At halftime, I called my main partner on an old pay phone near the book. I said, the only way we lose this is if the game goes Over. He said there was no way he was wasting hedge money on a halftime bet and if the Oilers lost, he'd never bet a football game again. I got half my money back on a second half Over bet. And no, he didn't retire from betting football, but he does consider hedging no matter the scenario these days.
And oh yeah, about the ridiculousness of Singer's two-year NFL claims. All he would have to have done is manage what you've done this season, then do it again next season. LOL. I really think Rob didn't have any idea what was achievable. He just plucked a number out of the air with his 68% claim.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Red, 45 / 66 = about 68%. Was this what you meant?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Anyway, what if all of the jargon is merely some "internal narrative"? What is any of it really attached to?
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheGrimReaperQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Red, 45 / 66 = about 68%. Was this what you meant?Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Anyway, what if all of the jargon is merely some "internal narrative"? What is any of it really attached to?
Yes, no one has ever publicly managed 68% ATS (against the spread), picking five NFL games a week, for a two-year period. So Rob decided that he had done it.
Like me saying I ran a 3:45 mile or thereabouts.
I deserved that Jacksonville win. That pick looked dead several times, including in OT, but it somehow won.
Down 27-10 in late 3rd. Down 34-31 and gave up the ball on a fumble with 1:51 left in game. Needing to win two challenges in regulation to have a shot to get in FG range. Their QB Lawrence being ambushed and in horrible shape to make a crucial pass with 5 seconds left, and somehow completed a long one to put them in FG range, followed by a great FG kick to take it to OT. Going 4-and-out in OT, and having Dallas within 13 yards of FG range, then getting a dropped pass and running for a 52-yard TD to end it!
What a game. Not quite as improbable as the Colts blowing that 33-0 lead, but still pretty fortunate.
Now 46-21-1, +26.93 units
NY Jets -2.5 vs Jacksonville
Not even close to winning.
Now 46-22-1, +25.93 units
NFL Freeze Bowl
New England +135 vs Cincinnati
Carolina at Detroit - Under 43.5 -107
San Francisco vs Washington - Under 37.5
Chicago vs Buffalo - Under 40
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
The annoying thing about today, for me, is that I was supposed to tease both the Over of the Buffalo game with the Tennessee Over, and I said hell no with the weather. I also had Buffalo available to me in an LMS and decided to not use them because of the anomalous weather. So now I need SF.
And for your final game of the day, and my only game of the day, I unfortunately have the Over of the Wash/SF game teased. Bomb cyclone indeed.
Meanwhile, we have rolling blackouts in Tennessee. Worst weather since I moved here 25 years ago. Homes here are not designed to deal with this.
Merry Christmas and better fortune tomorrow!
Going to try and bounce back from yesterday's 0-4.
Now 46-26-1, +21.93 units
Green Bay +165 at Miami
Green Bay down 7 at the half. I can't even blame washed up Aaron Rodgers. Fucking defense gave up 20 in the half. Not fun having to count on Rodgers to get you back a touchdown when Miami is scoring well.
Anyway let's throw one more pick onto the pile, in this battle of shit teams:
Denver -3 -108 at Rams
Well, I should've just stuck to the Packers. Miami didn't score in the 2nd half, and they won.
The Broncos got stomped on hard, in a battle between two bad teams.
1-1 today, +0.65
Now 47-27-1, +22.58 units
I was vacillating all day regarding tonight's game. Decided to go with neither side, and take the under.
Chargers at Colts - Under 44.5
Won last week with the pick above. Now 48-27-1, +23.49 units
Jax is a trap line this week. Plops are hitting it hard. I'm going the other way.
Jalen Hurts is very likely out for the Eagles. And somehow the 6-9 Saints are still in contention for the division.
That's all I got.
I hate betting these two teams, but here we are.
New Orleans +205 at Philadelphia
Houston +150 vs Jacksonville
Well I got tricked by Houston again. Boy are they ever awful. Blowout loss.
Fortunately the Saints pick was good, and I come out 1.05 units ahead.
Now 49-28-1, +24.54 units
Buffalo -2.5 at Cincinnati
Well, obviously that infamous Buffalo/Cincinnati game did not complete, so the bet was cancelled.
Here's what I got for today:
Denver -3 -115 vs LA Chargers
Carolina +160 at New Orleans
Cincinnati vs Baltimore - Under 39.5
Miami vs NY Jets - Under 37
Good luck today, Dan. You have crafted a really, really good NFL ATS season.
The only involvement I have with your games is I have the Over teased of the Bengal game, which I am getting ridiculous breaks in the first half. It was stupid in retrospect, as I don't really see how the Ravens can do anything. Anyway, I need Over 32 1/2.
Well you picked the right one against me. Cincy went over -- even without your tease.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That Carolina game was amazing. One of the worst QB stat lines you'll ever see, and yet they won.
Disappointing that a 31-20 Denver lead became 31-28 thanks to a 2-point conversion, and the game tied.
Denver -3 -115 vs LA Chargers - TIED
Carolina +160 at New Orleans - WON
Cincinnati vs Baltimore - Under 39.5 - LOST
Miami vs NY Jets - Under 37 - WON
Still a good day because I went 2-1-1 and won the +160.
Now 51-29-2, +26.05 units
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWell you picked the right one against me. Cincy went over -- even without your tease.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That Carolina game was amazing. One of the worst QB stat lines you'll ever see, and yet they won.
Dan,
That Carolina game tortured me in these no-spread contests. It was classic NFL. Carolina turns it over in their own end with the score tied, Saints run three horrific plays, then try some bombshot FG, thereby giving up field position to lose the game. And Carolina's TD came on a fumble into the endzone on third down.
Brutal -- that game may have cost me about 5K -- won't know until Tuesday standings. LOL. Life handicapping the NFL. And people wonder why I've spent 45 years being a college football specialist.
And congrats again on a really good day to close out a fine, bordering on spectacular, season. Your first eight weeks were second to none.
I hope it works out for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWell you picked the right one against me. Cincy went over -- even without your tease.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
That Carolina game was amazing. One of the worst QB stat lines you'll ever see, and yet they won.
Dan,
That Carolina game tortured me in these no-spread contests. It was classic NFL. Carolina turns it over in their own end with the score tied, Saints run three horrific plays, then try some bombshot FG, thereby giving up field position to lose the game. And Carolina's TD came on a fumble into the endzone on third down.
Brutal -- that game may have cost me about 5K -- won't know until Tuesday standings. LOL. Life handicapping the NFL. And people wonder why I've spent 45 years being a college football specialist.
That was just an awful game all around. How did Carolina win with that QB stat line?
And yeah, I was pretty much conceding it after that late 4th INT. I couldn't believe those terrible 3 plays and then the fail FG. The winning FG was following Darnold's only good pass of the entire game. Both teams played absolutely horribly. There were some terrible NFL games this season, but this one is in the running to be the worst.
San Francisco vs Seattle - Under 42 -106
Cincy 2H -4 +102
Won that second half pick above, lost the SF under.
Today:
Buffalo -5.5 vs Cincinnati
Ugh. Bad pick.
Okay, I'm firing once more
Dallas +165 at San Francisco
I hope I'm not sorry for not sitting this out.
I hate how it feels betting on sports.
San Francisco at Philly - Under 44.5
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Had Dallas at 10-1 and +750 to win NFC. Needed Prescott to play like a human. Or Pollard to not get hurt. Prescott threw two picks, but it could have been five with where he was placing the ball.
Got back about a third of my original wager with hedging. I actually thought Dallas would win. Boy, they were a mess.
You only cost yourself money when you hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You know this.
Prove me wrong!
Won the SF under. Going into the Superbowl, my season record stands at 53-32-2, +24.98 units.
I disagree. If your confidence has changed, it is ok. If you have realized you have bet too much money, it is ok. To say you shouldn't hedge usually assumes nothing has changed at all, the odds of winning are the same and the amount bet relative to your BR and personal finances are the same. Having said this, I don't think I have ever hedged and haven't done it even when I lost my confidence. Recently I did bet too much on the Eagles and was really thinking I had made a mistake, but I never hedged. I thought about taking a risk free offer on SF, but it didn't seem worth it and I would have rather just bet more on the Eagles.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou only cost yourself money when you hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You know this.
Prove me wrong!
I also disagree for different reasons, but wasn't going to mention it as didn't want to get monet riled up.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesdayI disagree. If your confidence has changed, it is ok. If you have realized you have bet too much money, it is ok. To say you shouldn't hedge usually assumes nothing has changed at all, the odds of winning are the same and the amount bet relative to your BR and personal finances are the same. Having said this, I don't think I have ever hedged and haven't done it even when I lost my confidence. Recently I did bet too much on the Eagles and was really thinking I had made a mistake, but I never hedged. I thought about taking a risk free offer on SF, but it didn't seem worth it and I would have rather just bet more on the Eagles.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetYou only cost yourself money when you hedge.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You know this.
Prove me wrong!
I know players that will make a 4 team parlay going off at different times, win the first 3 legs and then hedge the 4th game. I do agree this is dumb. If this is the way you felt, then why didn't you just bet the first 3 leg?
But the instances I am specifically thinking of are longer term, longer odds futures type wagers. When you pick a team to win the championship at 40-1, 50-1, 100-1, you aren't really betting them to win the championship. You are betting them to get to the playoff games in college football, or the final 4 in college basketball, or deep into the playoffs in baseball or the NFL, so that you CAN hedge and make good money. Hedging isn't some panic play, it is planned from the start with these types of wagers.
The second thing is that with these kinds of long-term wagers over weeks and months, circumstances change, players get hurt or traded So it seems perfectly acceptable to re-evaluate based on current and new information and circumstances. If you don't take new information and circumstances into account, you are kind of an idiot, aren't you?
Superbowl over 51
Good call Druff. Wraps up a very nice NFL season for you. Congrats.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Boy the over looks easy now. ;) It was one of those games where if you had bet the over for the 1st quarter, half and game, you would have swept and done so by midway through the 3rd quarter.
Final record:
54-32-2, +25.89 units
Very nice season. Hopefully I can duplicate this in the 23-24 campaign.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Very, very solid. High volume, high percentage, high return on investment. Bordering on spectacular. In most years of Mike McCusker's "Tipsters or Gypsters?" handicappers' report, which often featured about a hundred well-known handicappers, that NFL record would have been in contention for the top overall profit spot. And it would have put you top five (maybe top couple, depending on the year) in percentage and return on investment.
I also wanted to add that Todd shorted himself in his overall record. I don't recall the exact result, but he bet and counted one of his results with a really bad line, so one of his pushes should have been a win, or one of his losses should have been a push, assuming you did any shopping. I wasn't going out of my way to be generous, so he really did short himself half a game.