Golden State vs Portland - Over 233
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Golden State vs Portland - Over 233
Lost in a heartbreaker, with a surprisingly slow 4th quarter.
Now 35-41-2, -7.52 units
Chicago vs Cleveland - Under 224
Winner. Had to fade OT happening, but it ended in regulation. Otherwise easy win.
Now 36-41-2, -6.61 units
Battle of the two conference leaders.
Boston -2 -108 at Denver
Murray is questionable, Gordon is probable but hurting.
Also:
Memphis vs Sacramento - Under 238.5
Split 'em, and neither were close. Sac under won, Boston lost.
Now 37-42-2, -6.70 units
Toronto -2 at Indiana
More today:
Minnesota vs Denver - Under 232.5 (232 ok)
Clippers vs Miami - Under 218.5
Phoenix at Cleveland - Under 216
Toronto vs Milwaukee - Under 224
Wow... that Phoenix under pick looking great so far. 21 points in 10 minutes.
Here are two more picks, this time on sides:
Portland -1 at Minnesota
Miami -8.5 -109 at Lakers (Lebron, Walker, and of course still Davis OUT)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Dan,
I give your approach the thumbs up. Looking at the numbers as they sit right now for the season, I think all of the value is in the Unders going forward, at least in the immediate future. Also, the Laker game as a case in point, it looks as if the home underdogs have done so well that the opening lines have been distorted, so the value lies with the road favorites. You laid -8 1/2, but this line opened -5 or thereabouts. The line should never have been that low to open because it was fairly clear who was or wasn't playing.
Sadly neither of my sides worked out. Portland had a comeback going but they blew it.
Both unders were easy covers, but I had to sweat the Bucks because it went to OT and almost to 2OT. Actually could've still covered the under in 2OT, but fortunately it ended at OT.
The other day, Clippers under covered, but Timberwolves under barely lost after looking good for awhile. Also lost the Toronto pick.
Now 40-46-2, -7.97 units
Well, I owe Dan a dinner. I never bet NBA, but I was intrigued by the home-dog distorted line angle and took the three road favorites tonight. All three cashed. If Dan weren't betting this stuff, I never would have noticed.
I didn't bet much (I never would on NBA), but it'll cover my next LV excursion.
Be glad to meet you sometime, redeitz.
Here's an under:
Milwaukee vs Charlotte - Under 230 (Hayward OUT)
Lost that one big.
Now 40-47-2, -8.97 units
Today:
Utah at Chicago - Over 239
Utah/Chi had a bad first half (102), but ultimately it covered by 5.
Now 41-47-2, -8.06 units
Last minute:
Oklahoma -4 -115 vs Dallas (Doncic out)
Hopefully I'll finally catch fire in NBA. Just haven't had any kind of extended winning streak. I did win yesterday, with Oklahoma leading most of the way, coming up with an 11 point victory.
Now 42-47-2, -7.19 units
PLOPPY MONDAY
Memphis -12 -115 vs San Antonio
Memphis only won by 8, couldn't put shitty Spurs away
Now 42-48-2, -8.19 units
Today:
Oklahoma City +110 at Miami (Herro, Lowry, Martin, Adebayo OUT) (+2 ok)
Portland vs Orlando - Under 228.5
Miami has almost entire starting lineup out. OKC just beat a Dallas team missing Doncic. This is kinda similar.
OKC up 7 with 1:42 and they blew it.
Even worse, they had the ball up 2 with 17s and turned it over.
112-111 final, heat win
So ugly
Went 1-1 yesterday (should've been 2-0).
Today:
Two unders.
Indiana at New York - Under 226.5
Miilwaukee at Atlanta - Under 227.5
Split 'em. Indiana was looking like it was going to cover but a last minute scoring spree killed it.
Now 43-50-2, -9.27 units
Today:
Brooklyn vs Boston - Under 225.5 (Brown, Horford, Durant OUT)
Those road favorites I mentioned as being undervalued went 3-1 or 3-0-1 today, depending on when you would have pulled the trigger on Atlanta. The lines are slightly but significantly light, and the distortion in the lines due to prior 2022/23 history provided the margin to win or push in three of the four games. GS wasn't close and was unaffected by the slightly distorted number.
Won the Boston under.
Now 44-50-2, -8.36 units
Toronto -7.5 vs Atlanta (Bogdanovic OUT)
Toronto / Atlanta - Under 231.5
Utah vs Philadelphia - Under 232.5 (Niang/Harris QUESTIONABLE, Marrkanen/Gay/Sexton OUT)
Toronto got beat the whole way, but the under covered.
Philly/Utah was slightly on pace the whole way to cover, but a 62-point 4th made it barely lose.
1-2 day
Now 45-52-2, -9.45 units
Portland vs Dallas - Under 222
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Since I mentioned the road favorite value in Post #90, road favorites have gone 22-13 ATS.
Now, unfortunately, it's time to back off that angle.
Portland under didn't come close.
Now 45-53-2, -10.45 units
Today:
Denver -9.5 vs Minnesota
Houston vs Charlotte - Under 236.5
Oklahoma City vs Indiana - Under 238 -105
Really got screwed on Houston under. 72 point 4th ruined what seemed to be a lock. 1-2 day, only winning Indiana under.
Now 46-55-2, -11.50 units
Today:
Brooklyn at Phoenix - Under 221
Porltand +1.5 -105 vs Philadelphia
Lost both. Now 46-57-2, -13.50 units
Having a hard time in basketball this season.
First, a ploppy pick:
Sacramento -5.5 vs Oklahoma City
Now some totals:
Denver vs Indiana - Under 237
Brookylyn at Utah - Over 233
Lost all 3.
Glutton for punishment.
Big time slump here in NBA. Might give up on the season if it continues.
Today:
Minnesota at Houston - Under 234
Avoided the worst beat of the season by the skin of my teeth. 207 total with 56s to play, in a 7-point game. Somehow 26 points scored and I had to fade the final shot to win the under.
Today:
Cleveland -3.5 at NY Knicks
More:
Phoenix vs Charlotte - Under 226.5
Was looking at Pelicans under but it just went off the board.
Split 1-1, winning the Phoenix under despite a 70-point 3rd.
Today:
Minnesota at New Orleans - Under 229
Won yesterday
Boston vs New York - Under 221
Lost yesterday.
Today:
Oklahoma City vs Cleveland - Under 222
Miami vs Orlando - Under 219 -112
Won both yesterday.
Today:
Atlanta vs Clippers - Under 231.5
Lost the under in ugly fashion, as it was on pace to win until last minute fouling got me, and I lost by 1.5.
Today:
Toronto +2 at Phoenix
Toronto was getting beat down, then they came back and took a 5-point lead in the 3rd, and somehow managed to blow it, despite still being ahead in the final minutes. Game didn't end up that close.
Today:
Chicago vs Clippers - Under 225.5
Won the Chicago under easily.
Today:
Boston vs Brooklyn - Under 224
Lost the Boston under, due to them scoring 139.
Now 51-65-2, -16.04 units
Toronto at Houston - Under 224
Totally screwed on that under which had 30 points cushion with less than 3 min to go. Awful.
Today:
Dallas vs Golden State - Under 226
Lost yesterday
Toronto +1.5 at Memphis
Sacramento at New Orleans - Under 228
Split them, winning Toronto.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Today:
Atlanta +1 at New Orleans
Also:
Minnesota at Denver - under 233
Ouch. 0-2.
Today, just one:
Detroit +215 at Cleveland - FIRST HALF (Garland, Mitchell OUT)
Lost Detroit.
Today:
OKlahoma City +3 -115 at Portland
Won yesterday.
Now 53-71-2, -20.26 units
Today:
Miami Heat still hasn't realized it's 2023. Their game scores look like the 2010s.
213.5 is the new 183.5.
Orlando vs Miami - Under 213.5
Speaking of unders, guess who is playing again?
The Heat.
Miami vs Denver - Under 217.5
This one is also starting shortly, and the line has been rapidly falling. Vegas really really really wants you to bet over here.
New York vs Brooklyn - Under 218.5
Miami vs New York - Under 217
Oklahoma City vs Utah - Under 230.5
Charlotte vs Orlando - Under 225 -107
Toronto +2.5 -107 at Clippers
2/11:
Orlando vs Miami - Under 213.5 - WON (despite OT)
2/13:
Miami vs Denver - Under 217.5 - LOST
New York vs Brooklyn - Under 218.5 - LOST
3/3:
Miami vs New York - Under 217 - LOST
Oklahoma City vs Utah - Under 230.5 - LOST
Charlotte vs Orlando - Under 225 -107 - WON
3/8:
Toronto +2.5 -107 at Clippers - LOST
Total 2/11-3/8: 2-5, -3.16 units
Grand total: 55-76-2, -23.42 units
Terrible season for me in NBA so far.
=======
Today:
In 4 of last 6 games Brooklyn has played, one or both teams scored fewer than 106 points, and twice the total was under 205.
Minnesota has had a total of 213 or fewer in 4 of past 6 games.
Minnesota vs Brooklyn - Under 226
Atlanta -2 vs Cleveland
Ugly tie on the last one. Should've won it.
Today:
New York at Indiana - Under 229
Rare NBA playoff pick
Memphis -4 vs Lakers
Note that AD, Lebron, and Schroeder are all hurting.
Lakers a favorite down 3-0.
I know it can be argued they were close for a lot of the game in two of the three, but there's something about being down 3-0 in the NBA. No team has ever come back from it. I've seen it so many times throughout the years where the team down 3-0 at home just gives up and gets blown out.
You can get first-level tickets for $347 each right now at Staples Center (I won't call it crypto.com).
I think the moneyline is the best bet here. I see this one being a close game. It will probably a decisive win either way. Either Lakers will play great and Denver will essentially give up, knowing they have 3 more games to get it done, or the Lakers will fall behind and basically give up at some point.
I haven't really bet the NBA playoffs, but I'm going against my Laker fandom (which isn't nearly as intense as my Dodgers fandom) and betting the Nuggets ML here. For the record, I won't ever bet against the Dodgers because that's blasphemy. It's cost me money over the years, as I know the team very well and sometimes know in my heart when the Dodgers are going to lose. The Lakers I can bet against.
Notice this is not a "sharp" bet of any kind, and just one I'm doing on feel.
Denver +148 at Lakers
Okay, I barely hit yesterday's Denver bet, which I felt was great value at +148.
Today I just have to bet Miami. Again, not a sharp bet, just a feeling. Just looks like the Celtics have given up.
Denver had to win on the road. Miami is right on their home court and is already being crowned the Eastern Conference champs.
Miami -1.5 -107 vs Boston