I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.
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I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.
Redeitz, which AP, Axelwolf, AinQ, ect said that what they are doing in regards to promo based sports betting which by the math makes their play +EV (because of the promo or other situation), rivals the decades long ability of yourself or your hero Billy Waters?
If whatever these guys are doing were to dry up tomorrow as you said, these guys would just move on to the next +EV opportunity (which they are actually likely already doing) and it wouldn't even involve sports betting.
That is the whole point....what these guys are claiming is not about sports betting, it is about finding +EV opportunities. This particular one just happens to involve sports betting. You seem to be taking offense that this opportunity for however long it has existed, months, years, and however long it remains is some threat to your legacy or history of 40 years of more traditional sports betting and sports picking. It is no way tarnishes your history. The two are not connected. They are apples to oranges.
Your mention of the late Alan Mendelson and his very biased, negative, anti-AP rhetoric (things like secret AP club) is very disappointing. I don't know why you would go there.
I think some of this is because you think you need to answer to Rob Singers nonsensical challenges of your past and history. YOU DON'T! Singer is a nut with zero credibility.
Once again he is bringing up Billy Waters. Then he seems to think people are claiming they do better than Billy Waters. Redietz makes strawmen like no one else.
He finally get something right though, that promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever. Still a strawman of sorts since people aren't claiming any promotion will be around forever. Nothing will. What a clown.
Fuck you coach belly....and the 14 year old boy you rode in on. Oh wait....you already did!
Nothing wrong with what I said. I am sorry Alan passed and may he rest in peace, but Alan Mendelson, was very anti-AP. He didn't like players that won based on the math and frankly didn't even believe in the math. He probably didn't understand the math in most cases. If anyone needs confirmation of this, there are thousands of posts here and at WoV that prove what I am saying. These facts don't change because Alan passed away.
Just to be clear. Redietz's point is pretty lame. Everyone here who is sharp gets it. There is not EV that can definitively be calculated. However there is still something like a theoretical EV.
If you want to be able to understand it - think of it like this. You are God and can restart a game a billion times and average out the results. Then knowing that, you could go look at any bet and figure out the edge you have or the EV. That is the EV but it requires faith and you will never be 100% correct. I'm not sure what a better term would be but at least "EV" lets ditz think he has a point worth making.
So what is the proper term, Redietz? Say your handicapping says team A is going to win by 3 but they're the dog at some book. Now there is a distribution of historical results. Using this you can estimate the odds of losing or winning the bet (presuming your handicapping is correct and historical data is fairly accurate). So there is a definitive calculated number that is very similar to the EV in purely numbers based gambling. So what do you call that Redietz? What is the term or word that is closer than EV?
From let's say 2001-2002 give or take a year until now can someone tell me when there have not been sports bonuses, sports promotions, off lines, arbitrage, etc? Sure, technically you might be right "promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever" There's no handicapping method or AP situation that one can rely on forever that's why perhaps it's better to be a "jack of all, and master on none" when it comes to sports betting and AP.
Who really knows since there are always outliers when you consider the best of the best in a particular area. I'm fairly certain no one on this forum is the best of the best or even close or ever will be(oops, I almost forgot about Zenking the GOAT).
Let's assume one isn't making a cut from their client's money. What percentage on average does a college football handicapper make?
How many games on average does he bet per year? What's the longest losing streak one can go on?
If that's all you got, then I'm golden. Fyi, I wasn't trying to be nasty it's just that a few of your posts keep leading back to Rob. You are never going to win your battle with Rob. Let's just say you had absolute proof that everything Rob ever said was complete BS. He will brag that he's been trolling you for 10 years or whatever and you fell for it. He will claim the king of the trolls and probably write a how-to book.
Yes, when you realize that he was referring to your "wife".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4AGdVt2Dfg
Can anyone show me proof of a handycapper that has years-long records(500-1000 bets min?) in sports who have made money off of pure handicapping?
I'll accept public records showing picks made prior to all games and the real line available. IE no BS lines that are basically impossible to get down on.
I have seen that move before where a tout claims to be getting down with 1/2-1 point better than what's actually available. Sure, that happens, but certainly not every game.
Oh, I didn't see her post quoted.
That video is Very fitting since Captain Jack is actually a well-known and highly regarded sports bettor. I don't think I have ever tried Captain Jack I like Captian Morgans.
The beach vibe and Bikini actually reminds me of a cruise me and my Wife went on. She made that Bikini herself.
Not sure what that even means.
She actually isn't a bad seamstress for being self-taught. It's not easy to design and make a perfectly fitting bikini to your taste from scratch, with no pattern or good examples. Chicks are usually really picky when it comes to their bikinis. Any little imperfections they notice and think everyone else will as well. It was only after searching store to store looking for the perfect bikini without success I suggested she make the perfect style and fitting one herself.
Back when she was taking some nursing classes she started making unique scrubs for herself. Her Mother, who was an RN asked her to make some for her. They caught on with the other nurses who were willing to pay for custom scrubs. She could crank them out fairly fast and inexpensively. I believe they were paying upward of $80 a pop depending on how custom they were.
I think she got bored of it, but she made a nice haul for the time she did it.
Walters had been out of prison for 8 months when Trump pardoned him. He was released after doing about 3 years of a 5 year sentence by prison officials because his age put him in the high risk category for covid. Once released he was never going back to prison whether Trump pardoned him or not.
BTW, The FBI had been after him for years. They stupidly thought his sportsbetting was bookmaking. They looked for anything to hang him on. Walters says it was a wrongful conviction and is pursuing litigation
Here's my records in betting the various sports this season:
NHL: 3-2, +1.54 units
NCAA Basketball: 37.5 wins, 44 losses, 1.5 ties, -8.04 units (I'll explain the .5 thing at the bottom)
NBA: 34-39-2, -6.43 units
NFL: 46-22-1, +25.93 units
NCAA Football: 47-39-1, +8.66 units
MLB 2022: 59-62-2, +3.35 units
Each bet is 1 unit, no matter what. This way it is easy to keep track of my real profitability here. Other handicappers play with "units" by just increasing them when losing, while not actually increasing their real-life bets for that amount, in order to falsify a winning record. I have to use units because I sometimes bet moneylines, so obviously a +190 win is not the same as a -110 spread win. I am assuming a -110 spread or totals line unless otherwise stated, even though I personally can often get better (via lower juice books).
The one exception to the "1 unit" thing is something I started doing in NCAA Basketball, where I make a "split pick" on the same game -- 2 picks for 0.5 units each. It will usually be a moneyline on the first half and the spread for the entire game. So that's why I have a 0.5 win and 0.5 tie in that sport, which actually occurred tonight when I tied the first half.
Anyway, as you can see above, I am +25.01 units up total, over 442 picks. However, in sports other than NFL, I am down overall 0.92 units. I've had an outlier NFL season, obviously.
In short, sports handicapping is hard, unless you really study props, find weak spots, and can get action down (the hardest part).
I like Billy Walters, and I can't ignore his net worth. This is no judgment on him. This is just me talking about Handicapping and showing where not using math while gambling will probably lead you I.E handicapping. Unless you are freerolling/making money from clients or whatever( there's nothing wrong with that if you're the one making the free money). But, from an AP or ploppy standpoint, you decide if handycapping is a viable endeavor(especially when paying a cut for a service). Or, if using mathematical advantages, bonuses, promotions, etc(very hard to lose when done correctly) would actually be better.
One should also assume no previous ownership of a car dealership or income from bookmaking, or rich parents to fall back on. Also, ask yourself if you'll need runners(Illegal?) or if apps and online betting will be sufficient until they shut them down/limited. That could happen regardless of what method you use if you're winning.
"Billy has once narrated his experiences after gambling where he lost his home. He had gone back home to inform his then second wife that he had lost the house they were living to gambling and they might have to move as soon as possible. Although they did not move from the house but it took him a total of eighteen months to pay off the appropriate mortgage on the house. Now, this was not the first time he would come home after he lost his home and definitely not the last. According to Walters, he had returned home at least fifteen times to tell some similar stories of how he lost his home and basically everything. Well, not everyone could take the uncertainty and unpredictability from a man. It was not a surprise therefore when his second wife left him after a series of losses.
Walters has not always been a successful gambler. As a matter of fact, up till late 1982, he was a losing gambler. He lost a total of $25,000 USD by the time he reached the age of 22. By the age of 25, he had already lost $50,000. In 1982, he lost his home from pitching nickels. He lost everything he had to his name up till fifteen times, including his two wives. Even at that, his father was not able to convince him to give up on gambling and take up a steady job.
It wasn’t long after his second wife left him due to his excessive gambling that Walters started his own car dealership business in the year 1982. In addition to running a car dealership business, he also began to operate his own bookmaking services. It is important to mention that this activity is a crime within the jurisdiction of Kentucky. Walters was caught at some point and he had to pay a fine of $1,000 USD. After paying the fine, he made up his mind to relocate to somewhere else where gambling is allowed."
full unedited version here...
https://casinochecking.com/blog/billy-walters/
All it will take is for you to win some sports handycrapping contest.Soon after you'll start telling us how haddycapping is the stone-cold nuts, and then you'll start charging us for your services. ;)
I look forward to receiving your package(the ones you send in the mail that is)
The guy knew exactly how to attack players clubs to get max mailers on Video poker. He really pulled the wool over the Fraudulent players eyes like yourself. A Master troll and journalist. Real funny how he twisted you up over the years. You have a thing for attacking dead guys. What a complete piece of shit you are. Go fill your toilet with cum laced turds you freak. Get infected by the closet cruising married men
The only closet cruising married men around here is you, asshole.
One of the dumber things you have posted and it is growing harder to keep track, because you post more and more dumb shit lately. I miss the old, "normal" mickeycrimm.
How do you know any account is just one person mickey? How do we know your account is just you? There certainly has been a change in posting content in the last year or so? Didn't you have a roommate after your heart attack? How do we know you haven't found a lady friend and are shacking up and she is posting on your account?
How do we know Mrs Axelwolf doesn't chime in at times? Maybe even Mrs Dan Druff, posting some of these cute Vegas info pieces?
I know a guy that used to post here that got tired of posting and just turned his account over to someone else who kept posting.
What about AccountinQuestion. That dude has multiple personalities. Is that any different than two different people posting?
Would it surprise anyone if there were more than one person posting on Tasha's accounts?
There is no rule against multiple people using the same account. However if they were to create a second account from the same household, that would look like a sock puppet and be shut down.
I quick glance at the rules here says one account on the system, no duplicate accounts. A second account from the same household would be and show up as a duplicate account, therefore if more than one person in the same household want to post the MUST post on the same account.
It’s not like Druff gives a fuck about his forum rules, let Tasha sock it, lets GrimReaper/Yung/Garbageboy do it all Willy nilly; uses parentheses to put (2.5 hours from Vegas) Utah stuff in the Las Vegas subforum on his own forum!
How so? Again no answer. Because I can tell you Merry Christmas while also saying you're a phoney fuck?
All you guys whine about me trolling you then take random shots in unrelated threads.
Vegas too empty to get tricks and so you're broke and whiney? Whats going on dear man, please tell us.
This statement is pretty stupid. Imagine someone propositioned you to betting sides on every college game of the year and they will lay you 7 extra points per game. Since you have to bet every game it throws opinion out the window. What does the math say about this bet? Is there anyone here that would turn this bet down?
The math says you would have a huge edge. Sure, this is a hypothetical. But it shows clearly that mathematics is a huge part of sportsbetting.
Being 100% honest I've had that theory for some time way before Seedvalue showed up. I had no idea Singer said this. It all makes sense to me though. Your undying need to have legitimacy has to come from SOMEWHERE. LV is so full of prostitutes etc.
Good Lord, don't take shots at me randomly if you don't want it back at you. Not that hard. If you do, don't play victim.
Typically I've only made fun of you in relation to your obsession with Mdawg and Singer. That's pretty fair play. Many many people have brought this up with you yet you continue. Some mission of some sort.
Hey, Mcap! You want Willy and Nilly? Check out the latest installment of resident writer Tasha's thread, "Young Axl Rose and Cake Cream in 2022! :D". Also known as just shitting all over the place.
https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...432#post152432
Here's the teaser.
--->Quote:
A1, to A2 ... "Who are those people, how did they get on our tv, and, why the hell are they making up such loonie stuff about us.
Every Time Two Fools Collide - The Best of Kenny Rogers [MrV] and Dottie West [Tasha].
https://anagram-solver.net/A1,%20to%...s?partial=true
I managed to squeak in Monet, and his sidekick. Ha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NorBOX_jmUM
As far as me being a phony fuck, again, I am surprised that you buy in and are repeating that garbage. You are entitled to think whatever you like. I am just surprised when it is someone like you as opposed to the anti-AP or KJ haters.
I don't need to prove anything to you or anyone for that matter and I won't. But I have mentioned that one of the top AP's in this town, has worked with me this year, or given me some work with his team. While I won't mention him by name or the handle is is well known by on other forums (was actually asked not to), some of the real AP's know who I am talking about and have asked him, because he told me so. The fact that you don't seem to know or want to pretend not to says more about you that me.
You guys are just nuts. On another forum there are several guys (also one here in seedvalue) that make all kinds of ridiculous accusations, about me working at a burger joint, or prostituting old rich guys and make claims about where I live, calling it a high-rise slum, all that kind of nonsense, when one of these very guys, actually hired someone to find me and find about me and posted that info online and then claims I don't even play blackjack.
It is crazyness at it's most and like I said, I expect it from the long-time crazies. I am just surprised you have joined their club.
Dude, if YOU really believe this crap, I would say you have bigger issues that seedvalue, Singer, Mdawg and other haters. They don't really believe it, they just say it out of hate. One of that group (probably all), have absolutely proven the opposite of what they say.
I was never a KJ hater but I am willing to make a joke about your obsession with Mdawg/Singer. Those dudes don't even post here anymore! Yet here you are addressing them.
You've been playing LV 20 years or whatever and I don't recall you ever talking about back-offs etc. You just make a real plausible story but at some point it tends to be less believable than believable. Whatever. I'm not here to get into it with you. If you'd just take your lumps over me giving you a hard time about Singer/Mdawg. Your story makes even less sense now that there are so few 3/2 tables.
Good luck but at the end of the day I only started a thread asking what you so readily give us when we don't ask.
I have said this before but it is true. Some of you guys decide you don't like someone, often for something that has nothing to do with gambling or advantage play, something about their politics, or opinion on this or that, or in my case their sexual orientation, maybe their religion, and you demonize them, including throwing everything you can to attempt to discredit gambling/AP wise.
That is lame. I have never done that. I have challenged a few people because their claims are BS and defy math and the reality of how things work. When they retaliate, trolling and attacking me, as they always do, I troll back. But I never attack anyone's real AP or gambling credibility. Take mickeycrimm for example. Since mickey decided to bond with or whatever you want to call it with Singer, mickey has taken to attacking me. I may troll mickey back some, but have I ever, EVER, attempted to discredit him gambling or AP wise. Absolutely not! Nor any other legit AP or even recreational gambler.
I expect that from the complete trolls. The guys everyone knows are trolls....your Singers, Mdawg''s, coach belly's and more recently seedvalue, but I am still surprised when it what I though was a normal person.
You are in your own world. Another guy who just ignores what he is told. I'm not sure what you're yapping about but I've never made any sort of slur regarding your sexuality. You just make shit up.
I believe you are an expert in blackjack and probably play a good deal but I don't think that is your primary income (if you are actually winning).
At the end of the day you're 100% an attention whore. Whether a literal one or not I have no idea but the theory fits.
Literally I started a thread suggesting (telling? lol ok.....) you give us an update which is what you do ALL THE TIME without anyone asking. Then you blew it up into some big thing complete with a lot of complete falsehoods. You play victim card faster than anyone on this forum. I mean sure I started it but you could have just given us an update. <chuckle> anyway, I'm kinda over these stupid arguments. Pointlessness wrapped within pointlessness. A true waste of time is arguing with someone like you.
They read! ;) Look these guys troll me, I troll them back. Why does everyone think it is comical when they troll me, but when I return, I am obsessed and too serious and all that? :confused: This is what I do for entertainment dude, just like everyone else here. :p
If you never heard me talk about backoff, you either haven't followed me for long or might want to get your memory checked. For years, I shared my experiences, winning, losing, heat, backoffs, interactions with pit people, almost in real time. I usually tried to put a slight delay in things that could be identifying like backoffs, or large wins or losses, but almost in real time.
I did all that! I stopped doing so on this forum and GF, because that is not what these forums are. They are troll type arguing back and forth forums. So that is what I do.
I know you say you don't read GF, but if you go there and click on blackjack, you will see a half dozen threads I started sharing my blackjack experiences. Some of the titles are: The rollercoaster that is blackjack card counting (variance), Education of a young card counter and two man EMFH team play (both referencing my brothers and I playing together) and most recently, Chaotic opposition betting, a thread about some of the very betting patterns I have used that have helped me achieve longevity.
If you look back at threads on this forum, you will see similar threads started by me. I even entertained blackhole on two different occasions, answer every question he could throw at me. But the fact is THAT is not what these two forums are about, so I have stopped.
I don't think there is anybody in gambling, certainly not blackjack that has shared their experiences, even as I was going through them including details of losing periods, weeks, month, and significant below expectation years, as I have shared. I just don't know how you can even say what you said, if you are serious.
I am pretty certain that Kewlj is one of those people whose default state is to be upset, not at peace. Like it’s very unsettling to some people to not be constantly upset for whatever reason, have to search for something to be upset about or be victimized over.
People constantly give you shit almost entirely BECAUSE you’re more or less incapable of not reacting to it, I don’t believe it’s nearly as much for the reason you believe.
You so conveniently skip over being called out on your BS to defend other BS. I said I believe you're an expert at BJ. Oh you made forum posts ! All this shit no one can verify. You keep the numbers low so it makes sense but just hard to believe you're playing at the same casinos in 1 town for 15 or 20 years or whatever. Why care so much validating yourself? Just doesn't add up. I don't even claim to be a real gambler. I just find the stuff interesting and dabble in it although that is very well changing. God willing.
At the end of the day you're just some dude trying to be someone on the internent whether true or not. I shouldn't pick on you but I really don't even think thats what I did this recent round. I do however feel like a bully though continuing with you. If you don't want that shit then don't take random shots at me and not expect me to do this little forum battle nonsense. Or don't just make up shit then ignore the fact you were called out on it. Just proceed to make up more shit then expect everyone to believe your main bullshit.
Now about backoff:
When I moved to Las Vegas I wanted to play at a level and style where I could achieve some longevity. I wasn't interested in what guys like KC were doing racking up 5-600k in 6-18 months (depending on how wide a travel range) until you were barred everywhere. I wanted to make a living playing blackjack, mostly playing Las Vegas, with minimal travel.
I devised a plan for that based on my mistakes playing Atlantic City. I knew there was a level of play (max bets and spread) that would be tolerated as long as you spread your play around and didn't create too many situations that pit folks had to answer for. I just had to figure out what that was. And it is different for different casinos and different times of play. What is tolerated at a casino at 3pm on a Tuesday is far different than what is tolerated on Saturday night at 10pm.
You learn this true trial and error. And that is where backoffs come in. Backoffs are the measuring stick to your progress. My first couple years in Vegas I was backed of 10, 11, 12 times a year. Basically, once a month from somewhere. After my first few years backoffs started to go down, 8, 6, settling from 3-5 for many years. There was one year in the middle of that pack that one backoff out of town at Valley Forge, resulted in 3 more back home here in Vegas almost immediately. This too part of that learning process.
Of course last year ended a pretty good string of few backoffs, when I first was backed off in Reno, which like Valley Forge resulted in a couple as soon as I returned to Vegas. And then I was doxxed and that info appeared in the databases. I learned this from a friend in the business (it is good to have friends in the business :). I am 100% positive, that info in the database, shortly following a disastrous backoff in Reno, would have resulted in a very difficult year, possible the end of my career, had I played regularly. So I adjusted. Laid low for half the year, doing some other things and when returned to play changed my style a bit, playing crowded times.
I played about half as much as normal this year, at slightly higher stakes. You know how many backoffs I had? ZERO! Because I worked hard at it, just as I always have with longevity as my top priority. This year may have just been my greatest accomplishment, because I found a way to keep playing, (hopefully well into the future) overcoming what looked like to be a possibly career ending situation.
So don't tell me I haven't shared backoffs and heat and everything I have gone through. I HAVE! There just is little appetite on this forum so I have all but stopped and joined in the games that are played here. Good fun.
So you can be backed-off multiple times from a casino and come back without be trespassed?
Regardless of all my meanness towards you, I do read your blackjack posts and find them interesting at least.
You are free to believe whatever you like. Honestly, I am fine with that. It isn't going to change what I do or what I make one single bit. Actually probably better for me the more people that don't believe. I also am not trying to prove I am the best or GOAT (that belongs to Zenking). I am just making a living, lower end of what most AP make.
I do have to say something about this "expert" comment. I am not a blackjack expert. There is a lot of math to blackjack and the real blackjack experts like to get into all the math and formulas and all that, which most is over my head. Some of these "experts" I suspect haven't won shit playing blackjack or at best recreational type money.
That is not what winning money is about. The winning money part of blackjack is simple as simple can be. More aces and high cards remaining = good....bet more. More low cards remaining = bad....bet less or better yet zero (exit game). That is all there is to the mathematics of winning blackjack play. Everything else is just fluff.
Now the trick to winning real money for a long period of time (longevity) isn't about math at all. It is about figuring out how to bet those bigger bets and be welcome back to play another day. To that I have tried to learn all I can, through trial and error and other players trial and error (experiences). I don't know that I would use the word expert, but I know what works and doesn't work for my situation, circumstances, location and style of play. Maybe I am an expert in my very narrow field of play in regards to longevity. I don't know. That label isn't important to me. Being able to keep playing is what is important to me right now.
But anyway, If you think that I have learned what I have learned, through other players as well as my own experiences, and been at this for going on 20 years so I can make posts on forums to impress who?....well I don't know what to say. Obviously, there is someone who has done that in Singer. Mdawg might be following in his steps....time will tell. If you think that is what I am about and have spend half my life so I can make some posts on a forum, all I can say is you aren't a very good judge of what is going on. But I really am fine with you thinking that.
At the end of the day AinQ, you have to use your brain a bit to figure out people. I think you are smarter than some of the things you are saying or repeating. :rolleyes:
So let me ask you this? This is a good starting point. Where has my claims or story or whatever you want to call it changed even one little bit over the years?
Singer's story and claims change more than the seasons. 10 years of playing his singer system from 2000-2010 to 3 years and 5 years of the double up bug during the same time. Pictures in an RV claiming it was his, to later saying "well that wasn't my RV, mine was identical just across town". There are so many I can't even begin to list them. Mdawg first he said he wasn't playing with an advantage now he says he is. Last year he said he won $1,070,000 from March through Oct, then in Oct 24, he said he was "about even for that trip".
I am touching the tip of the iceberg, but these guys stories always change (usually escalating). It is one of the big "tells". So, give me an example of anywhere my story has changed. Obviously, there are things I do that I choose not to share or not share in real time. Anyone that doesn't get THAT, again, I don't know what to tell ya.
But the floor is yours...tell me where I have been inconsistent and changed my story.
Where did I say you were inconsistent? I just don't believe the sum of it all and this counting 3 tables at once. (Or was it only 2? lol don't recall.) You try way too hard to be credible. Still playing in LV after all these years even after fewer 3:2 tables.
Your faking your death etc. Just because you're consistent doesn't mean you're not lying. Whatever.. gl
Ok, I'll tell you about trespassing. It is mostly a myth in regards to advantage play. Well at least here in Nevada...I can't speak to everywhere. Some casinos don't even understand or pretend not to, that they can't really trespass a player for winning. And of course, Police either don't really know or don't want to. Anyone that is trespassed that wants to fight it will win....eventually. You might have to spend a night in jail and then lose the first ruling to some local judge, but if you appeal you will get to the point that you win. The charges will be dropped. A lot of time, expense and effort to get there, which most players won't go through, but it is not illegal to play and win as long as you aren't doing anything illegal. (disclosure: the basis of these comments come from Attorney Bob Nersesian and are specific to Nevada).
Trespassing is just an intimidation tactic used by casinos. What they can do is not allow you to play. That is a backoff and really that is only good for that day. But if they told you that, every player would be back the next day or next week, so they threaten you with trespass, if you return. Now again, these comments are for Nevada. I don't know every situation for every jurisdiction. I don't even know for some places that I visit occasionally...and probably should. Knowledge is power. You should know the rules and legalities, because you sure aren't going to get an honest shake from the casinos.
Now that said, you should never push the envelope and do what I did at El Cortez. It is just stupid. When backed off a player should just exit and avoid that casino for a couple-three months, and maybe that particular pit guy and dealer for longer, even up to a year. You want to exit with as little drama as possible making yourself and that particular situation as "forgetful" as possible. If your priority is longevity that is the play, not arguing or anything else (hear that Zenking). You want nothing that makes you more memorable. Returning day after day to spite a pit guy is as stupid as can be. I knew I was dealing with ElCo, who doesn't contribute to the databases, but still just one of the stupider things I have done in my blackjack career.
You can be trespassed for any reason that doesn't violate the Civil Rights Act.
Do you play blackjack? and if so, in Las Vegas? and if so at what betting level?
One of the big myths about Las Vegas blackjack is that everything has gone to 6:5. That there is no 3:2 blackjack left.
This simply is not true. Low limit, $10-$15 games on the strip are 6:5. $25 and $50 games are 3:2 and games at most offstrip locations are 3:2. Sometimes a double deck game may be 6:5.
When I moved to Vegas, I stated what I made every year, whether good or bad (and the purpose of that was to show what kind of money a midlevel player focused on longevity could realistically make). In addition to that I would post a summary of conditions that changed and what I felt the outlook was for the next 5 years for my situation based on those changes. Most years there was very little change. Once in a while I would report that XXX casino went from 3:2 to 6:5 on $10 games, but it was minimal change and a couple years I even reported two casinos that went the other way from 6:5 to 3:2. I just have not seen this great change towards 6:5 at least at my level of play.
Of course when a casino did change to 6:5 or any other thing that made it unplayable, I drop it from my rotation, but I have always up until covid had a rotation of 30+ games, all 3:2. Post covid, it has probably been 2 dozen as some casinos never reopened that were in my rotation and there have been changes post covid (mostly less traditional BJ tables) as well as the way I play the last year.
I don't do those end of year reports any longer, but even before covid I began to be concerned that electronic and/or stadium style blackjack (electronic betting with one dealer severing as many as 50 betting stations) would be replacing lower limit games at many places and that has come to fruition. That really only effects me because some of the lower limit players bump up in stakes playing $25 tables rather than play the electronic/Stadium blackjack, which makes for more crowded conditions at the tables I play.
Anyway, I strayed a bit, but 6:5 taking over is mostly on the strip and mostly lower limit games. There are plenty of 3:2 games throughout Vegas at $25 and up and even some of the off strip places at $10/$15 dollars.
yeah, yeah. Talk to Mr Nersesian. Players that are trespassed for card counting that fight it, almost all have charges dropped. Now whether you want to go through that hassle and expense, and it is a hassle, is another matter. And that is really all it is about hassling players.
Of the players that I know and talk to, a trespass is just a backoff. You treat it mostly the same. Stay away for a period of time, maybe a little longer with trespass.
But if you are approached after a trespass, they don't even call the police. They just remind you that they trespassed you and you leave. It is all part of the cat/mouse game. Trespass is just an intimidation tactic of that game.
I suspect you're wrong about a lot of this but I don't know any bj counters. You had a big misunderstanding of the law that directly impacts your source of income for the past ~15 years. Like I said .. it is all hard to believe. gl
Also hard to believe you've never been trespassed. Only "backed off". If you were trespassed it is an odd omission on your part.
Ok, I am heading out for a while to take a little bike ride. Finally have a day in the 60's in LV after about 2 weeks of temps in upper 40's low 50's (8-10 degrees cooler than it should be). I am not complaining because I see on the news what the rest of the country is going through. Be careful up there in Montana mickeycrimm with those temps. Everyone else as well.
AinQ, I am not trying to change your mind about anything. Honestly, think whatever you like. But if you have any other questions, about what I do, I am happy to answer if I can without revealing anything I don't want to reveal. Maybe someone else can benefit, although I don't think there are any BJ players reading. But who knows, maybe a lurker. :)
Here is a link to Nevada trespass law, posted by a seemingly sharp Las Vegas attorney:
https://www.shouselaw.com/nv/defense...0-trespassing/
Ok, I think we are branching off into different discussions here and conflating different things from different situations and discussion, although somewhat related.
In the article that MrV. just linked to, the examples the repeatedly gave were of a patron or customer that had been trespassed for some action that by itself could have legal ramifications, like a fight at the bar or stealing, disorderly conduct. Card counting is not an action that by itself has any legal ramification tied or associated with it, despite what casinos sometimes tell people. So a person, drunk and involved in a fight, who is trespassed is a very different situation that a casino trespassing a person who has done nothing illegal. The argument that they have the right just doesn't come into play in real life application.
I think it was one of his appearances on GWAE, although I did hear a long discussion with Mr. Nersesian on some sort of legal podcast, but I believe it was GWAE, where Mr. Nersesian talked about a ruling in a trespass case (it wasn't the Grosjean case, as it was years after that), but the ruling from the judge was that even though the casino had trespassed the player and I believe had the player sign an agreement, that upon return, he had to be given the opportunity to leave each and every time, before he could be arrested or held. Only if he was advised that he was not allowed to be there due to a previous trespass and declined to leave, could he be held and arrested. This ruling essentially took the bite of the act of trespassing a player. Again, it may be very different for someone who was trespassed for an activity that on it's own, has criminal consequences.
In addition, let's get into real world consequences and actions because that is what this discussion was about with AinQ comment about returning after backoffs.
I have been backed off over 60 times in Las Vegas. Not once was I read the trespass act, you know that whole schpiel about "if you return....blah, blah, blah". Not once! I did have a casino manager from a small casino in Henderson call me and leave a voicemail advising me I could not come back. And guess what, I returned there and played machines, even using my players card many times with no issue. The only reason I never tried to play blackjack again, is because it was a very small place with a single 6 table pit that was only open one shift a day. It would be almost impossible to return from even a mild backoff to play that situation. One shift, same pit, same dealers.
The other quazi- situation was a straight up backoff at a property. They gave me the standard "no more blackjack", didn't say I had to leave the property or anything, but one over-zealous security guard seemed to take it upon himself to make sure I left the property. I have since returned many, many times to play blackjack.
Bottom line: a trespass for card counting just doesn't have the bite the casinos want players to think it does. It is essentially a backoff. All card counters that put in any real time in Vegas will get backoffs at some point. And probably a trespass. These things really are part of the game within the game. Part of doing business.
I am not trying to undermine what redietz has said. Weak lines often exist for reasons which are beneficial to sportsbooks, such as enticing people to bet on a side that the book believes is going to lose (also known as a "trap line".)
Other times weak lines exist when there is not much information known about the game, or the game is very low-profile, and likely not to receive much betting action.
The average person does not possess the ability to pick out a weak line, even if they are big sports fans or frequent sportsbettors.
Fortunately, in modern times, there are sites you can use to examine betting trends, and you can deduce for yourself when this is occurring. The basic rule of thumb is that you usually don't want to bet on the side that Vegas is trying to entice you to bet.
From what I have seen, redeitz has a lot of handicapping knowledge, and isn't just a contest-winning luckbox. And I mean that seriously.
The Las Vegas subforum has always been the "main forum" of this site. This predates my involvement here. Remember, I showed up 3 years after the forum was started by Alan, and I didn't take over any kind of content admin until it converted to Vegas Casino Talk. I have tried to maintain the spirit and look of the original site, for the most part. Regarding certain general topics posted here, I have tried to push some of it over to other forums, by moving certain threads which have nothing at all to do with gambling or Las Vegas.
Utah stuff near the Nevada border is still what I consider to be the greater Vegas area, so that's why I post it over here. I wouldn't post Salt Lake City stuff on this forum at all, unless it had to do with gambling in some way.
Where are the sockpuppet accounts? It seems that Grim Reaper simply switched accounts, which isn't the same thing. If he were posting on Bill Yung, Garnabby, and Grim Repaer at the same time, then I would force him onto one of them. The only thing that annoys me about him is the fact that he posts non-sequitur nonsense a lot of the time.
Good for you for saying this Dan Druff. I think anyone being objective long ago reached the same conclusion.
As most people know, I have a saying "It just don't take that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about and who is just talking".
I guess I need to add an addendum to that, an addendum I would have never thought needed, that this only applies to people trying to be objective and unbiased. If you go into a situation, any situation, predetermined with the result you want to find, then that is what you will find.
Here is the deal Dan Druff. I mentioned that the two people I live with, my brother and our third housemate, lets call him a friend, occasionally post on my account. My brother rarely here, more so at GF where he likes to troll Singer. The other guy is very, very occasional, mostly in defense of attacks on me.
This came about after my brother created an account at Wizard of Vegas where he made a post in a thread about continuous shuffle machines. It wasn't about cheating as I have discussed, it was actually a post on gaining a very slim about 1/3-1/2 percent advantage. His post was deleted, and account closed or canceled or whatever within an hour, I am sure which ever moderator did so, thinking it was me. So I told both if they want to post something, just use my account. Doesn't make any difference to me as most discussions here are trollish discussions.
So that is what mickeycrimm is all wound up about. It is very rare that either posts, especially here and if either had made a separate account, you would have busted it as a sock puppet. I don't know what the big deal is because like I said earlier, what guarantee do any of us have that any of these accounts are just one person? Could be a few people having their wives ect, post and no one would know. Could be Mrs. Dan Druff makes some of these "cutesy" type posts that you sometimes come up with.
Dan, if I posted what I truly meant most of the time, you would explode.
It's not a big deal, no matter how corny it all gets, but, what it does strongly indicate is that you can't form, and, then, present a logical thought, let alone a mathematical proof. I mean, just because the next guy may be a crook doesn't get you off the hook for actually having professed to being one. What else do you thus and similarly just rationalize away?
Sorry, but you, like Crimm, and Redietz, pissed in your own bowls of "cornflakes" a long time ago. Turned out no better than the other fools you argue with daily. A veritable freak show.
It's warmed back up in the 20's for Christmas with an expected high of 50 in a few days. But we were in the negative 20's with wind on top of that. I closely monitor the cold cranking amps of the battery in my van. I try to keep over 700. And I have a damn good jump starter just in case. And all season tires. They're a big difference in traction from regular street tires.
Oh, when I buy a new vehicle the first thing I do is put remote start in it. It's nice standing inside and cranking the van up through the window to let it warm up.
Mickey, why don't you use snow tires with the M/S rating during the winter?
Much better in the snow than all season radials, and since you live in Montana I'd think you'd opt for them.
If you really want an update on Rob Singer, I am happy to oblige, AinQ.
This is something I have shared with I think 2 members but have never shared publicly and me doing so now should make for some interesting discussions in the Singer household over Christmas. ;)
A couple years ago I was so concerned over a couple of Rob's comments towards me, that I felt I should contact someone. I didn't want to call the police on the guy, so I contacted Rob's daughter, Marrissa. She seemed like a nice lady. She told me they were aware of Rob's internet activity and assured me that he was harmless. I didn't press or ask her about any of Rob's claims specifically, as that was not the purpose of my contacting her, but she did volunteer something that sort of said it all without saying anything, if you know catch my drift. So those that think I don't really know about Rob.....I do. :cool:
When does the nonsense stop with you mickey?
You started off saying you believed Rob's double up because he told you something, you thought only someone that played it would know. You took great offense that the rest of us didn't feel the same way.
Over time you have expanded to where you make some sort of defense of most of Rob's different claims, while attacking those that challenge anything.
Just last week, you went as far as to repeat that Rob saved $20k by registering his Newell in S.D., when you know damn well right there was no Newell. Just as there was no double-up bug play from Rob for 2.9 million, just as there was no recent 1.5 million dollar video poker jackpot that the casino won't allow him to name the casino.
I know it is a game to you and you think it fun, but when does the lying end?
There you go again making the shit up to fit your false narrative. I didn’t say Rob saved 20K. I said it’s a 20K difference between Arizona and SD. They don’t call you K-Jocchio for nothing.
Over at gamblingforums about a year ago UNKewlJ started a thread “Final Thoughts” on Rob Singer where of course whatever he had to say as usual was farrr from final and the perennially UNKewl one kept whining softly about how there was no way Rob could have done what he did.
Recently someone came along and posted
I don't know if Rob Singer actually had the results he stated, but his 3 year $300,000 claim is very believable based on what I have achieved. Whereas if I took all my win/loss statements for the orthodox method years, and compared my coin in to my results, my results are far below what the math says they should be.
which is of course a knife in UNKewlJ’s loose bowels as yet another person posts about how MDawg or Singer is far more credible than UNKewLyingJ has ever been.
LOL..."high powered attorneys..." bwa ha ha ha
So, "william" who made the post that Mdawg quoted, joined Gambling forums in 2017. In those 7 years, he has made a total of 4 posts. All in the same thread entitled Rob Singer in which "william" lends supports to all things Singer.
Yeah, THAT is real! About as real as Rob's sock puppet here, GirlFriday, or his sock puppet Jerry Logan, both of which were created to support Singer's ideas and claims when no real person would. :rolleyes:
Is this your life now Rob, trolling and sock puppets? :confused: You can't find some slightly more productive hobby to pass what time you have left? :confused:
This is some odd kind of 3-way love affair between KJ, MDawg and Rob Singer where all 3 are rationally assumed liars hellbent and obsessed with discrediting the other two for being liars and delusionally feel it will clear their names.