Seattle (Woo) +118 at Angels (Sandoval)
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Seattle (Woo) +118 at Angels (Sandoval)
Won Seattle.
Today:
Boston (Paxton) vs Colorado (Seabold) - Under 9 -105
You wanna see something weird? The line right now on BOL is under 9.5 -137. Now only is that a shitty line, it's bizarre they won't move it down to 9.
Not only is that a crappy line, but it really seems they want to discourage under betting here.
Managed to win the under on the Rockies despite 3 runs coming home in the 10th.
Today I am fading Jameson Taillon, something I should've been doing for a long time, but haven't been.
His ERA is over 7, through 10 (!!) starts. He just hasn't looked right, possibly due to after-effects from his injury earlier this year. Whatever it is, he's been a disaster for the Cubs. He has had just 2 good starts -- one back in April against the Dodgers, and one on June 2 against the Padres.
Luis Ortiz hasn't been great for the Pirates, mostly struggling with walking a lot of people (15/16 K-BB ratio). However, he's been mostly good at stranding the many baserunners he's allowed.
I am not making this a first-5 pick because the Pirates have a lockdown closer in David Bednar, and a pretty good setup guy in Colin Holderman. The Cubs bullpen situation is a mess. Aside from being on the road, the Pirates generally have the bullpen advantage here.
Pittsburgh (L. Ortiz) +115 at Cubs (Taillon)
Lost the Pirates above.
Last minute:
St. Louis (Mikolas) -117 at NY Mets (Megill)
Lost Cards above.
Today:
San Diego (Snell) -114 vs Tampa (Eflin)
Won this San Diego pick above.
Today:
I like the under on the Braves game today.
Spencer Strider suddenly looks human, giving up 8 runs two outings ago, and 5 runs last outing. However, I don't think he's lost it -- at least not yet. He's still generating a lot of swings and misses (a big metric these days), and his velocity has not decreased.
Ranger Suarez was awful after coming back from injury -- so bad that I released him from my fantasy team despite having him for $1. Of course, since I released him, that meant he was going to go on a run, and indeed he has. He's back to 2021 form, and has been excellent in his past 4 outings.
Between what I believe will be a bounceback performance for Strider, and Suarez's unexpected return to effectiveness, I think this one goes under.
Philadelphia (Suarez) vs Atlanta (Strider) - Under 8.5 +100
Won yesterday.
Today:
Yankees (J. Brito) +138 vs Seattle (L. Castillo)
Now all you got to do is add in the Giants and Indians.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
.
Dan - I'm following every day - looks like you're doing well - can you please post your record and r.o.i. - thanks - then I'll keep track and won't ask again
.
It's all recorded and only 5 pages.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
Go back and do the leg work yourself you lazy prick.
Freeland pitched well in last 3 starts in Denver.
In general, dog bets on the Rockies at home aren't that bad.
Colorado (Freeland) +138 vs Angels (Sandoval)
Won the Colorado pick with 4 runs in the 8th. Considered picking them the next day, passed on it, and they fell behind 23-0 in the 4th. Good thing I avoided that embarrassment I'd never live down.
Today:
The Padres have an ultra-fail reliever who couldn't even beat minor league hitters, and he's opening today's game. The Pirates have Rich Hill who, after defying the calendar for many years, seems to finally be done at age 43. He has coughed up 4-6 runs in 4 of his past 6 starts, including the last two.
This is a first-5 over.
San Diego (Knehr) vs Pirates (Hill) - Over 5.5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS
One more pick for a bit later.
The Injuns and the Royals are two of the four worst offensive teams in baseball (the other being the Tigers and A's). They face each other tonight.
Admittedly Brady Singer has bad numbers this year, but he's actually had some solid games in there. Gavin Williams was killing it in the minors, but had a not-so-good start against Oakland in his MLB debut. Now that he's past the opening jitters and facing another bad offense, I predict he will look a lot better.
We don't need a 2-1 game to win this one. Just fewer than 9, in a game featuring two very weak offenses which are both averaging fewer than 4 runs per game.
Cleveland (G. Williams) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 9 -105
Thanks Dan! I rarely see the posts before start time, but I caught this one and jumped all over it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Easily won both of those totals picks, giving me a win streak of 6 in a row. My last losing pick was on June 16.
Record last posted 5/8/23: 25-18, +5.19 units
What followed was a dark period for the next 3 weeks...
5/9:
New York (D. Peterson) at Cincinnati (Weaver) - Over 5.5 -125 - W +0.8u
5/10:
Colorado (Senzatela) +124 at Pittsburgh (Hill) - W +1.24u
Cincinnati (Greene) +134 vs Mets (Verlander) - L -1.00u
Philadelphia (Wheeler) vs Toronto (Gausman) - Under 8.5 -120 - W +0.83u
St. Louis (Montgomery) at Cubs (Steele) - Under 7.5 -125 - L -1.00u
Total 5/10: 2-2, +0.07u
5/11:
Yankees (German) -116 vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - L -1.00u
Texas (Eovaldi) vs Oakland (Medina) - Texas over 2.5 run first 5 -130 - L -1.00u
Total 5/11: 0-2, -2.00u
5/13:
Cleveland (Quantrill) vs Angels (Detmer) - Under 8 +100 - L -1.00u
Baltimore (T. Wells) vs Pittsburgh (R. Contreras) - Under 8.5 -113 - W +0.88u
Colorado (Feltner) +125 vs Philadelphia (R. Suarez) - FIRST 5 - L -1.00u
Total 5/13: 1-2, -1.12u
5/15:
Baltimore (Rodrigues) +104 vs Angels (Ohtani) - L -1.00u
Seattle (Kirby) -117 at Boston (Houck) - W +0.85u
Total 5/15: 1-1, -0.15u
5/16:
Toronto (Gausman) vs Yankees (German) - Under 8 -105 - L -1.00u
Texas (Dunning) -105 vs Atlanta (Shuster) - W +0.95u
Total 5/16: 1-1, -0.05u
5/19: Cleveland (Quantrill) +128 at Mets (Carrasco) - L -1.00u
5/20: Seattle (Gilbert) +116 at Atlanta (Chavez) - W +1.16u
5/21: Miami (Luzardo) +113 at San Francisco (Wood) - L -1.00u
5/22: Detroit (Lorenzen) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 8.5 -105 - L -1.00u
5/23:
Cleveland (L. Allen) -123 vs White Sox (Cease) - L -1.00u
Cubs (Smyly) -110 vs Mets (Megill) - W +0.91u
Total 5/23: 1-1, -0.09u
5/24: Cincinnati (Lively) +142 vs St. Louis (Matz) - W +1.42u
5/26:
St. Louis (M. Liberatore) +102 at Cleveland (Bieber) - L -1.00u
Colorado (Seabold) vs Mets (Scherzer) - Over 11.5 +100 - L -1.00u
Minnesota (Varland) +130 vs Toronto (Gausman) - L -1.00u
Total 5/26: 0-3, -3.00u
5/27: Arizona (Davies) -102 vs Boston (Whitlock) - L -1.00u
TOTAL 5/9-5/27: 9-16, -6.96 units
TOTAL THROUGH 5/28: 34-34, -1.77 units
However, some better times would follow...
Record from 5/28-present
5/30: Angels (Ty. Anderson) at White Sox (Gioito) - OVER 9.5 -104 - W +0.96u
5/31: Pittsburgh (M. Keller) +108 at San Francisco (Wood) - W +1.08u
6/1: Angels (Detmer) +130 at Houston (R. Blanco) - L -1.00u
6/2: Arizona (M. Kelly) +106 vs Atlanta (Morton) - W +1.06u
6/3:
Seattle (Woo) +132 at Texas (Heaney) - L -1.00u
Minnesota (Gray) -134 vs Cleveland (L. allen) - L -1.00u
Total: 0-2, -2.00u
6/4: Yankees (German) at Dodgers (B. Miller) - Under 8.5 -104 - W +0.96u
6/5: San Diego (Snell) vs Chicago (Hendricks) - Over 9 -115 - L -1.00u
6/6:
Detroit (Alexander) +160 at Philadelphia (T. Walker) - L -1.00u
Boston (Paxton) -103 at Cleveland (Bieber) - W +0.97u
Total: 1-1, -0.03u
6/10: Seattle (Woo) +118 at Angels (Sandoval) - W +1.18u
6/12: Boston (Paxton) vs Colorado (Seabold) - Under 9 -105 - W +0.95u
6/13: Pittsburgh (L. Ortiz) +115 at Cubs (Taillon) - L -1.00u
6/16: St. Louis (Mikolas) -117 at NY Mets (Megill) - L -1.00u
6/17: San Diego (Snell) -114 vs Tampa (Eflin) - W +0.88u
6/20: Philadelphia (Suarez) vs Atlanta (Strider) - Under 8.5 +100 - W +1.00u
6/21: Yankees (J. Brito) +138 vs Seattle (L. Castillo) - W +1.38u
6/23: Colorado (Freeland) +138 vs Angels (Sandoval) - W +1.38u
6/27:
San Diego (Knehr) vs Pirates (Hill) - Over 5.5 -115 - FIRST 5 - W +0.87u
Cleveland (G. Williams) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 9 -105 - W +0.95u
Total: 2-0, +1.82u
TOTAL 5/28-6/27: 13-7, +6.62 units
GRAND TOTAL THRU 6/27: 47-41, +4.85 units
Not a spectacular record, but at least I'm winning.
Note that each game is exactly 1 unit bet, no matter what, for the purposes of this record keeping.
Great picks Druff. The only one I'm going against is Cle vs KC. Over all the way, you're buddy SINGER can't pitch his way out of a wet paper bag. Plus he's old as hell(74) WAY OVER THE HILL !! Betting the farm on that one!!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
You're betting on a completed game?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
for a great many sports bettors - not including you - that would be the only way they could possibly win
Haha! I noticed too late after the fact, to correct.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I am disappointed in myself for sleeping through the return of the pfatso -- Brandon Pfaadt.
He's a top D-backs prospect who just can't win in MLB. This was his second stint in the Majors, and it went about as well as expected. You could have gotten a +107 on the Rays, of all teams. Can you imagine? Easy 6-1 victory for the Rays, of course.
Here's a pick starting in 15 minutes -- a battle of two pitchers with inconsistent careers, but both of whom have done well recently.
Light wind blowing out of Wrigley.
Cubs (K. Hendricks) -101 vs Philadelphia (T. Walker)
Lost the Cubs, who blew two scoring opportunities mid game, and fell 3-1.
Okay, I missed fading the Pfaatso, but I am going to fade another struggling pitcher today -- Mike Soroka.
Soroka once had a great career ahead of him. Today, he's a big question mark. An injury shut him down for almost 3 years, and he returned to the Braves rotation earlier this season. He was horrible, and was demoted back to the minors.
After 19 good innings in the minors, he's BACK to face the Marlins in Atlanta.
The Marlins have Bryan Hoeing today, a converted reliever who has been fairly good in 2023. In fact, he threw 5 hitless innings in his last outing, and held the Blue Jays scoreless for 4 innings in his previous outing.
The Braves are averaging 5.5 runs per game, and have an explosive offense. I wouldn't be surprised if they come back to win the game, but I see Hoeing outpitching Soroka, who has not yet shown he is Major League ready since his injury, so I'm going to first-5 it. You still get a nice price -- only 7 points off the full game price.
Miami (Hoeing) +155 at Atlanta (Soroka) - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Texas (Jon Gray) vs Houston (R. Blanco) - Under 8.5 -105
Jon Gray appears to be BACK, after getting clobbered by Toronto on June 18th. He had a blister, so that probably explained it, as that start followed a rare complete game against St. Louis. He went out and threw a nice start against the Yankees last time, showing that he's feeling better.
Roniel Blanco has been mediocre this year, and was converted on June 1 to be a starter. He did pitch fairly well against the Dodgers, allowing just 2 hits in 6 innings, though both were HR, so that hurt his line. Blanco did manage 13 strikes on his slider alone in that start, which was encouraging.
I was deciding whether to go with a full game u8.5 -105 or a 5-inning u4.5 +100. I decided to go full game, as Blanco is a bit of a wildcard, and I'd prefer to have the ability to win this if he gets hit hard and Gray pitches well. The 4.5 +100 first 5 isn't a bad pick, though.
Split 'em. Barely pulled off the under, Miami got blown out.
Starting shortly:
Cleveland (Bibee) +116 at Cubs (Stroman)
Betting the weak-hitting Injuns against the Cubs against Stroman, for a measly +116 in Chicago? Am I crazy?
Maybe.
Stroman got bombed last start because of a blister -- one which apparently isn't all better.
Also:
Seattle (Kirby) +100 vs Tampa (Glasnow)
Won both of them yesterday, easily.
THRU 6/27: 47-41, +4.85 units
6/29: Cubs (K. Hendricks) -101 vs Philadelphia (T. Walker) - L -1.00u
6/30:
Miami (Hoeing) +155 at Atlanta (Soroka) - FIRST 5 INNINGS - L -1.00u
Texas (Jon Gray) vs Houston (R. Blanco) - Under 8.5 -105 - W +0.95u
Total: 1-1, -0.05u
7/1:
Cleveland (Bibee) +116 at Cubs (Stroman) - W +1.16u
Seattle (Kirby) +100 vs Tampa (Glasnow) - W +1.00u
TOTAL SINCE 6/27: 3-2, +1.11u
GRAND TOTAL: 50-43, +5.96 units
Sunday afternoon picks
Mets (Peterson) -126 vs San Francisco (Stripling)
Angels (Detmers) -116 vs Arizona (Gallen)
A legendary pitching matchup would be Pfaatso vs Old man Singer.
Won both, though the Mets came close to blowing it late. Now 11-2 since June 16.
Here's an under pick for tonight, starting in about half an hour.
Joe Ryan pitched a masterful 3-hitter CG against Boston, then got bombed against the Braves. First off, it's not shameful to get bombed by the Braves and their relentless offense, but it's also not uncommon to pitch poorly after a CG nowadays. It's not 1988 anymore, and pitchers simply aren't used to going that long. Ryan is now well rested (he only went 3 frames against Atlanta), and he's facing an offense which is the opposite of that of the Braves -- a Royals team which is the 2nd-worst in baseball (only ahead of the A's), and that's only after somehow battering the Dodgers recently.
His opponent, Austin Cox, is a reliever who won't go long, but has pitched well, aside from a poor outing last time against the Injuns.
Expect a low scoring affair from these teams with anemic offenses.
Kansas City (Cox) at Minnesota (J. Ryan) - Under 8.5 +100
Lost the under in final 2 innings.
Today:
Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer)
Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)
Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 innings
Ouchie!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Let's shake off the ugly 0-3 yesterday, of which 2 were actually decent picks which just didn't work out. (The Washington one probably wasn't a good pick.)
You gotta bet on a pitcher named Kutter, right?
He also has a 55/12 K-BB ratio, and has been a lot better than his 3.92 ERA would indicate.
Nate Eovaldi will have regression tonight after his 7 shutout innings last time. Book it.
Boston (Crawford) +130 vs Texas (Eovaldi)
Do not take the shitty +116 BOL line
This wasn't as bad as it looked. Well, results wise it was.Quote:
Originally Posted by monetOuchie!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
But the Braves had 4 runs in the first, and that over looked like a cinch to hit. Nope, only 5 total after 5 innings, after many other scoring chances.
Both the Nats and the Yankees had early leads, and both were blown.
Looking back on it, none of these were bad picks. Just didn't work out.
As I type this, the Red Sox are playing ping-pong with the Rangers, with neither side pitching well. Gonna be a long night.
Won yesterday.
Detroit (Faedo) +117 vs Toronto (Manoah)
Battle of the recently recovered starters.
Lost the Detroit game on the 7th. Time to get back into things.
Going to fire on a Rockies home game again.
Rockies are 22-25 at home. The are A's/Royals level bad on the road, but at home they are almost .500. This is often neglected when they have fail years like this one.
Houston's Hunter Brown hasn't pitched well in his last 2 starts, and Denver is not a forgiving environment to a struggling pitcher. I'm taking the Rockies and their bullpen game.
Colorado (Bird) +186 vs Houston (H. Brown)
Won Colorado yesterday. Nice!
Is Graham Ashcraft back? He was supposed to be my sleeper pitcher in fantasy this year. Presently he's on the free agent list, following my release of him over a month ago, and nobody has touched him. That says a lot in our very deep NL league.
But look at this numbers lately! Over his past 3 starts, he's gone at least 6 each time, allowed only one run each, and his WHIP over that span is 1.176.
Might he have finally found what he was doing wrong from April through June? Perhaps.
In any case, he's facing Ross Strpling, with even worse overall numbers than Ashcraft's, and who still doesn't seem totally recovered from injury.
The Reds scored 10 yesterday and lost to the Giants. Expect a bounceback today.
Reds (Ashcraft) -111 vs San Francisco (Stripling)
One more, statring very shortly.
Angels (Silseth) at Yankees (Rodon) - Over 9 -105 (Over 8.5 -125 ok)
Results for July (not including today):
7/2
Mets (Peterson) -126 vs San Francisco (Stripling) - W +0.79
Angels (Detmers) -116 vs Arizona (Gallen) - W +0.86
2-0, +1.65 units
7/3
Kansas City (Cox) at Minnesota (J. Ryan) - Under 8.5 +100 - L -1.00
0-1, -1.00 units
7/5
Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer) - L -1.00
Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)- L -1.00
Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 inn - L -1.00
0-3, -3.00 units
7/6
Boston (Crawford) +130 vs Texas (Eovaldi) - W +1.30
1-0, +1.30 units
7/7
Detroit (Faedo) +117 vs Toronto (Manoah) - L -1.00
0-1, -1.00 units
7/18
Colorado (Bird) +186 vs Houston (H. Brown) - W +1.86
1-0, +1.86 units
Total: 4-5, -0.19 units
Grand total: 54-48, +5.77 units
Won both yesterday.
Early games, 9:35am PT
Cincinnati (Abbott) -111 vs San Francisco (Cobb)
Milwaukee (Burnes) -106 at Philadelphia (T. Walker)
Won both above.
Starting soon:
Kevin Gausman's side hurts, and he hasn't pitched in 2 weeks. Logan Gilbert is inconsistent, and looked shaky in his last outing.
You don't need much to break a 7.5 total these days.
Toronto (Gausman) at Seattle (Gilbert) - Over 7.5 -110
Starting later:
Detroit (M. Manning) +119 vs San Diego (Wolf)
Manning has been one of the few bright spots on this Tigers team. Jackson Wolf has pitched well at AA, but has never played higher than that, prior to today.
Split them. Got screwed with the Detroit rain delay. Reliever after the delay gave up 9! Over on Seattle hit easily.
Today:
Dodgers (Sheehan) -115 at Texas (Ma. Perez)
Cubs (Taillon) +107 vs St. Louis (Montgomery)
Milwaukee (Teheran) +139 vs Atlanta (Elder)
One more
San Francisco (Alexander) at Washington (Gore) - over 9 -115
Got punched in the face by MLB yesterday.
San Francisco couldn't score against the LOL Washington pitching staff, and that game finished 6-1. Over lost.
Atlanta was Atlanta and had an 8th-inning comeback, overcoming Milwaukee's thin 2-1 lead. Lost.
Dodgers were up 4-0 but their pitching woes continued, and they lost 8-4. Lost.
Only success story was the Cubs, who broke out to a 7-0 lead, and never looked back. Jameson Taillon is somehow pitching well last few outings, and should be watched for betting purposes.
So I went 1-3 and lost a bit less than 2 units. Ugh.
That makes me 1-4 since rolling off 6 wins in a row. To be fair, none of these 4 losses were bad picks. The Detroit pick was going well until the rain delay, the Dodgers were up 4-0 to start, the Brewers were up in the 8th inning (and for most of the game), and the Nationals scored 6 runs when I had over 9.
All I can do is make good picks, and hope the luck is with me.
Let's look at old Dodgers friend Kenta Maeda.
He sports a troublesome 5.10 ERA through 9 starts. At age 35, is he done?
Not so fast. A look at his individual games shows a horrendous 10-run beatdown in 3 innings on April 26. Turned out he had a bad elbow, pitched anyway, and then was out for 2 months recovering.
Let's look at his 5 stats since returning. All have been good except a surprisingly bad one in Oakland on July 14, where he was wild. Against the Mariners, whom he's facing today, he allowed just 1 hit in 5 innings, with zero walks. He finally tired in the 6th and coughed up a 2-run HR, but otherwise pitched great.
Luis Castillo seems to be going great overall, with a 3.04 ERA and 1.048 WHIP. But let's look a bit closer again. In 5 of his past 6 starts, he's coughed up 2 HR. This is starting to become an issue.
Minnesota has won 8 of 10, and is starting to pull away in the tight AL Central. They are 29-22 at home.
I believe this game will go to the Twins.
Minnesota (Maeda) -110 vs Seattle (L. Castillo)
Well... that one wasn't easy. 2-1 all the way to top of the 9th, 2 out, nobody on. Lock it up?
Nope. Single, then a home run by Kolten freakin' Wong, and it's 3-2 Mariners.
Then the Twins push across a run in the bottom of the 9th but leave a runner at 2nd. They manage to blank 'em in the 10th and get their runner from 2nd home, and I win 4-3. Phew!
Two games today, one early, one later this afternoon.
St. Louis (Flaherty) +127 at Arizona (Gallen)
Zac Gallen has given up 10 HR since June 4
Detroit (Lorenzen) -104 vs Angels (P. Sandoval)
Patrick Sandoval has walked 9 in last 3 starts combined, Michael Lorenzen has given up 0 ER in last 3 starts
Cardinals won.
Okay, let's look at this Battle of the Bay coming up this evening.
The A's have rookie Freddy Tarnok going, who is likely to throw 3 innings like he did last time out. Tarnok has done in his brief MLB stint essentially the same as what he was doing in AAA. In both the minors and Majors, he's battling control issues yet otherwise not allowing that many runs. He's then followed by Hogan Harris, who pitched well through late June, but then got hit pretty hard 3 consecutive times from June 29 to July 15. In his last outing, however, he pitched fairly well against Houston.
The Giants have Ryan Walker starting, but don't read too much into that. He's going to be an opener, probably not going more than 2 innings, and will be followed by Alex Wood. As has been typical of Wood's career, he's been inconsistent in 2023. On June 22, he got bombed by the Padres. On June 27, he pitched great against the Blue Jays. On July 2, he was super wild and gave up 5 runs to the Mets in less than 2 innings. He bounced back and threw 5 shutout innings in relief against the Rockies (in SF) on July 8. Finally back as a starter, he allowed 8 baserunners, and lifted in the 4th, though he only gave up 1 run. The lowly Nationals hit him for 5 runs last time out.
The key here is Wood. Is he worth a 2-to-1 favorite, given his recent struggles, or is it +EV to oppose him?
While the A's are a horrid team and the two pitchers they have lined up are uninspiring, Wood's control issues and general struggles lately don't bode well for him, especially on an evening with a 9-11mph wind blowing out. It is cool in SF tonight (60 degrees or so), so that will somewhat negate the wind regarding the HR advantage, but still, overall the wind should help carry some balls out.
A's have also gone 3-4 in their last 7, which for them counts as a hot streak. They were notched 2-1 by the Giants last night.
If you can, don't bet on "listed" for the Giants, as Walker starting doesn't matter. We are focused on Wood. Probably won't matter, though, as we are close to gametime.
Oakland (Tarnok) +200 at San Francisco (any/Walker)
Hmm, too late for me because I already placed the bet. But you might want to "action" the whole bet, because ESPN claims Harris is starting. I think ESPN is wrong, though. I see Tarnok everywhere else, including this official A's post from 2 hours ago:
https://twitter.com/Athletics/status...28581336539137
Oakland lost that game above.
Today:
Dare I go under in this era of offense?
Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) vs Milwaukee (Rea) - Under 11 +100
Colorado (Blach) vs Oakland (Medina) - Under 12.5 -120 (under 12 -110 ok)
Split 'em. Easily won the Oakland under (by 10.5 runs!), lost the Atlanta under by 3.
I've got two tonight. Both Sox.
White Sox (Scholtens) +173 at Texas (Heaney)
Fading Heaney here, who has coughed up 15 runs in his last 18 1/3 IP, over 4 games. His only good recent outing was against the light-hitting Injuns. This is only the 3rd time in his career that he has more than 100 IP in a year.
Boston (Bello) -105 at Seattle (Bryce Miller)
Rookie Bryce Miller coughed up 4 HR in his last outing. Aside from a recent bad start in Oakland of all places, Bryan Bello has had all quality starts since June 4, going 6+ innings and 3 or fewer ER each time. Consistent!
It's that time of year when those tempting big dogs can kick you in the ass. That's what happened to me yesterday, as my even-moneyish Boston pick managed to win, but the White Sox were shut down 2-0.
Aside from a few short slumps, I've been mostly consistently winning in MLB this season, sticking mostly to small favorites and small dogs, eschewing the ploppyish big favorites and mostly avoiding the wishful big dogs. I've long felt that there is too much variance in big MLB dogs after June 1, except in some cases where the game is seemingly a tossup at big dog odds.
Today I just have one totals pick for you.
NY Mets (Senga) at Kansas City (Ragans) - Under 9 -118
Won the Mets under.
Today:
Miami (Luzardo) +122 at Texas (Montgomery)
Colorado (Flexen) at St. Louis (Wainwright) - over 9.5 -115
Oakland (Blackburn) vs San Francisco (Stripling) - over 8.5 -115
Lost the over above.
Today:
Wish I woke up early enough for Reds.
Anyway, here's the one remaining one I like:
St. Louis (Hudson) vs Tampa Bay (Beeks/bullpen) - Under 9 +100
Lost yesterday by 1.
Today:
Well... I'm in a bit of a slump.
Which is why I don't love trying to get out of it with a big dog, but here we are.
James Paxton is 5.40 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and 23:9 K/BB since July 1. I'm going with the Royals today and their bullpen to take this one over Boston. You can list Paxton but leave it open for the Royals.
Kansas City (bullpen/Cox) +195 at Boston (Paxton)
Lost yesterday. KC shut out.
Today:
August dog days struggles.
I have two for you anyway.
Pittsburgh (Oviedo) -111 vs Cincinnati (Abbott)
Two pitchers going completely opposite directions.
Arizona (Nelson) +144 vs San Diego (Snell)
Ugh. Lost both.
Today:
Judge is playing, as is Stanton (ok that's not so exciting), and you can get +170 on the Yanks. What a time.
Yankees (Schmidt) +170 at Atlanta (Fried)
Lost again... big time.
Today:
Atlanta (Elder) vs Yankees (Severino) - Over 10.5 -110
Severino has been absolutely terrible in every start. Elder has been bombed with 5-7 runs in 4 starts since July 9, including his last 2.
Hoping to break the losing streak.
Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115
You had the right idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bad luck to go scoreless the final 3 innings. I needed a minute to find the game on the board. Cleveland is now the Guardians. What did Indians do wrong to get canceled?
I should have won this one. Not only was there a scoreless final 3, but in the 8th, the Reds had 2nd and 3rd nobody out, and couldn't score. Cleveland also had a HR robbed from them earlier in the game.Quote:
Originally Posted by Don PerignomYou had the right idea.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Bad luck to go scoreless the final 3 innings. I needed a minute to find the game on the board. Cleveland is now the Guardians. What did Indians do wrong to get canceled?
Bad run for me.
Much like poker losing streaks, it's a combination of bad luck (yesterday should've been a win) and pressing.
The SD/Arizona game tonight is interesting. It features Rich Hill, who hasn't gotten out of the 4th inning in his past 2 starts (and wasn't pitching well before that), and Zac Gallen, who was lights out for the first half of the season, and then became mediocre for five straight starts from early July to early August. Last time out, he looked back to his former self, and shut out the Padres for 6 innings.
The ploppies LOVE Arizona tonight. They get All-Star Zac Gallen against 43-year-old Rich Hill, who appears to finally be finished. And they get a small dog price! What a steal!
But this has trap written all over it. The money is more on the Padres, while the number of tickets are more on Arizona -- one of the indicators that the sharp bettors like SD and the ploppies like AZ.
Does this mean I like SD? Not really. There's no doubt that Rich Hill is bordering on useless. In his last 10 starts, the best he's done was give up 2 ER. In 8 of those 10 starts, he lasted fewer than 6 innings. In 3 of the past 4, he didn't make it through five innings. The only thing to his credit is that the only complete bombing was on August 6th against the Dodgers, which of course happens to a lot of pitchers these days. Additionally, Gallen shut down these same Padres last time out. So do I really like Hill at a small favorite line today? Nope.
I think the safer bet is a first-5 over. You'll notice that BOL has the strange O4 -145 line. That's indicative they're trying to push sharps away from betting on it, rather than simply moving it to 4.5. Good sign.
Don't bet it on BOL. Look elsewhere. I have a book taking 4.5 -110, and I see it elsewhere, as well.
San Diego (Hill) vs Arizona (Gallen) - OVER 4.5 -110 - FIRST 5 INNINGS
Lost again. By 0.5.
Today:
Colorado (Lambert) -123 vs White Sox (Kopech)
Finally won!
Here's an under for you, starting very soon:
Toronto (Kikuchi) at Baltimore (G. Rodriguez) - Under 8 -115
I see the Dodgers -1.5 at -120. It hurts to put down -120 for -1.5 on the road, but this is a ploppy's paradise with Syndergaard on the mound and the crap Injuns offense.
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (B. Miller) at Cleveland (Syndergaard)
Lost that, too. Yet the Dodgers killed the Injuns in the other games. Ugh.
Okay, so with that said, here's one I like.
The Reds are in a pennant AND wildcard race, just smacked around the Angels (but who doesn't these days), and their main issue is pitching. How bad is their pitching? The only worse NL teams in runs allowed are the Nationals, Cardinals, and Rockies -- all last place teams. The Reds are also a very nice 36-27 on the road, even taking a series from the Dodgers who nobody seems to beat at home for the last few years.
The D-backs are 8-2 in their last 10, and have a 4 game winning streak. They aren't in a pennant race (12.5 games back), but are in the same wildcard fight as the Reds, with virtually the same record.
Sounds like a pretty even matchup, right? Except maybe if the D-backs have a big pitching advantage. But today they don't.
Over his last 10 starts, Merrill Kelly has 0 ER once, 1 ER twice, 2 ER twice, and 3 ER four times, and 5 ER once. So he's been solid, but not dominant.
Since early July, Brandon Williamson has a 3.38 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 47:15 K:BB across 48 innings. He's basically had two not-so-good starts in that stretch (though neither terrible).
These are two hot teams, two pitchers who have been solid but not dominant since early July, and two both fighting for a wildcard spot.
I like the line here.
Reds (B. Williamson) +154 at Arizona (M. Kelly)
So brutal. Had a 3-2 lead in the 8th and lost to Carroll's 1st homer since July.
Today:
You can't run bad forever. Or can you? I've had some bad streaks in poker over the years which would make you guys projectile vomit.
Lance Lynn is a new man in Dodger blue. He's returning to face an AL foe since his renaissance. Will we get back the old horrible Lynn, or the dominant Dodgers Lynn?
And will Kutter Crawford build upon his 1-hitter of the Yankees? Or did he pitch so well because the Yankees are terrible?
I believe that this one will go under, and the 10 line gives us some room. Don't be too concerned about the 9-10mph wind blowing out, as the drizzle and rain should counteract that somewhat (it also might delay or suspend the game, though, so watch out!)
Dodgers lineup tonight is more top heavy than usual, which is good for under bettors.
https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1695180207773335565
Dodgers (Lynn) at Boston (K. Crawford) - Under 10 -105
Results so far?
They were good until about 3 weeks ago
chants* NFL! NFL! NFL! NFL!Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Thursday, September 7th.
Dodgers (Pepiot) vs Arizona (Pfaadt) - Under 9 +100
Won the Dodgers under above. I wanted to pick over on Dodgers last night, decided not to, and it easily covered. Oh well.
Today:
Oakland (Sears) +112 vs Angels (P. Sandoval)
Yes, I'm to the point where I'm making a +112 pick on the A's.
Won the Oakland game easily.
Now time for the bad news. The results since I last updated.
On July 18, I was a solid 54-48, up 5.77 units. That was my last results report.
But it got better! I reeled off 5 more wins, putting me at a peak of 59-48, +10.37 units.
Then that afternoon (7/22), I lost my second pick -- Detroit vs SD. Then I kinda slipped a bit but was mostly spinning my wheels. Then from August 5 to 25, I had the most brutal run I've ever had in MLB, first losing 9 in a row, then winning one -123 pick, and then losing another 4 in a row. For those keeping score, that's a 1-13 run, dropping 12.19 units! OUCH!!
I've made 2 picks since then, and won both, including the one today.
Soooo... where do I stand? See the next post.
Through 7/18: 54-48, +5.77 units
7/19:
Reds (Ashcraft) -111 vs San Francisco (Stripling) - W
Angels (Silseth) at Yankees (Rodon) - Over 9 -105 - W
2-0, +1.85
7/20:
Cincinnati (Abbott) -111 vs San Francisco (Cobb) - W
Milwaukee (Burnes) -106 at Philadelphia (T. Walker) - W
2-0, +1.84
7/22:
Toronto (Gausman) at Seattle (Gilbert) - Over 7.5 -110 - W
Detroit (M. Manning) +119 vs San Diego (Wolf) - L
1-1, -0.09
7/23:
Dodgers (Sheehan) -115 at Texas (Ma. Perez) - L
Cubs (Taillon) +107 vs St. Louis (Montgomery) - W
Milwaukee (Teheran) +139 vs Atlanta (Elder) - L
San Francisco (Alexander) at Washington (Gore) - over 9 -115 - L
1-3, -1.95
7/24:
Minnesota (Maeda) -110 vs Seattle (L. Castillo) - W
1-0, +0.91
7/26:
St. Louis (Flaherty) +127 at Arizona (Gallen) - W
Detroit (Lorenzen) -104 vs Angels (P. Sandoval) - RAINED OUT
Oakland (Tarnok) +200 at San Francisco (any/Walker) - L
1-1, +0.27
7/30:
Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) vs Milwaukee (Rea) - Under 11 +100 - L
Colorado (Blach) vs Oakland (Medina) - Under 12.5 -120 (under 12 -110 ok) - W
1-1, even
8/1:
White Sox (Scholtens) +173 at Texas (Heaney) - L
Boston (Bello) -105 at Seattle (Bryce Miller) - W
1-1, -0.05
8/2:
NY Mets (Senga) at Kansas City (Ragans) - Under 9 -118 - W
1-0, +0.85
8/4:
Miami (Luzardo) +122 at Texas (Montgomery) - L
Colorado (Flexen) at St. Louis (Wainwright) - over 9.5 -115 - W
1-1, -0.13
8/5:
Oakland (Blackburn) vs San Francisco (Stripling) - over 8.5 -115 - L
0-1, -1.00
8/9:
St. Louis (Hudson) vs Tampa Bay (Beeks/bullpen) - Under 9 +100 - L
0-1, -1.00
8/10:
Kansas City (bullpen/Cox) +195 at Boston (Paxton) - L
0-1, -1.00
8/11:
Pittsburgh (Oviedo) -111 vs Cincinnati (Abbott) - L
Arizona (Nelson) +144 vs San Diego (Snell) - L
0-2, -2.00
8/14:
Yankees (Schmidt) +170 at Atlanta (Fried) - L
0-1, -1.00
8/15:
Atlanta (Elder) vs Yankees (Severino) - Over 10.5 -110 - L
0-1, -1.00
8/16:
Cincinnati (Abbott) vs Cleveland (Syndergaard) - Over 9.5 -115 - L
0-1, -1.00
8/17:
San Diego (Hill) vs Arizona (Gallen) - OVER 4.5 -110 - FIRST 5 INNINGS
0-1, -1.00
8/18:
Colorado (Lambert) -123 vs White Sox (Kopech) - W
1-0, +0.81
8/22:
Toronto (Kikuchi) at Baltimore (G. Rodriguez) - Under 8 -115 - L
Dodgers -1.5 -120 (B. Miller) at Cleveland (Syndergaard) - L
0-2, -2.00
8/24:
Reds (B. Williamson) +154 at Arizona (M. Kelly) - L
0-1, -1.00
8/25:
Dodgers (Lynn) at Boston (K. Crawford) - Under 10 -105 - L
0-1, -1.00
8/30:
Dodgers (Pepiot) vs Arizona (Pfaadt) - Under 9 +100 - W
1-0, +1.00
9/1:
Oakland (Sears) +112 vs Angels (P. Sandoval) - W
1-0, +1.12
TOTAL 7/19-9/1: 15-21, -6.57 units
GRAND TOTAL: 69-69, -0.80 units
So just a hair under even right now, including the juice.
Need a good final month to make this a decent season.
Kansas City (Marsh) +156 vs Boston (Houck)
Lost the KC pick, taking me to -1.8 units on the season.
Today:
Cincinnati (Phillips) +136 vs Seattle
San Francisco (R. Walker) +117 at Cubs (Hendricks)
Split 'em, winning Cincinnati but losing SF.
Now 70-71, -1.44 units
Today:
I didn't completely forget about baseball betting.
George Kirby is in a dysfunctional situation right now in Seattle. He's had a 6.00 ERA over his past 4 starts, and after the last one, he whined about being left in the game in the 7th inning "after 90 pitches". Yes, dude was whining about NOT being taken out.
This has drawn the ire of fans and former players, and the team is none too pleased.
Bobby Miller also has somewhat struggled in his past 4 starts, though he threw a gem against the Braves last week. I still like him and the Dodgers at near even money, especially with the Dodgers having the much better offense.
Kirby just seems like a guy in a funk right now.
Dodgers (B. Miller) -107 at Seattle (Kirby)
Won the Dodgers bet two days ago, to take me to 71-71, -0.51 units.
Today:
Tampa Bay (Littel) +105 at Baltimore (Kremer)
Ugly beat. 3-1 Rays in bottom 8, 3-2 Rays bottom 9th 2 out nobody on, and they can't win. They even were up 4-3 in the 10th with 2 out. Still no good.
Today:
Philadelphia (Wheeler) -110 at Atlanta (Wright)