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Just noticed the Yankees on a 5 game winning streak and more shocking, the Boston Red Sox have an 8 game winning streak in the works. The Brewers have a 5 game winning streak going, the Dodgers a 7 game losing streak and the Astros a 4 game losing streak.
Oh, I see the Phillies are pissed Misiorowski made the all-star team, only 1 all-star from Philadelpia compared to 8 last year. One of their pitchers would have been in aa an all-star but he didnt agree to pitch and he felt he should have been named, then replaced.
Im really liking the Brewers WS bets now. They can win their division and Misiorowski can get them some first gane wins in each playoff round and a 4th if needed. +2500 may not be so bad still. It would make a lot of sense for Misiorowski to be what was needed to win, think Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson.
Rookie of the year is one thing. If a player comes up and plays part of a season and his numbers are better than rookies that played all season or a bigger part of the season, I am OK with that. But the all-star game is a little different for me. It is supposed to be the best players for the first half of the year, not 3 week.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
I am not saying this kid is not going to last, as most people think he will. BUT there are some flash-in-the-pans that just start out hot for a few weeks and then fade into obscurity. rewarding for such a short period of time, isn't fair to the next guy up who's spot he is taking. Just my opinion, of course.
The Brewers are brewing something hot and look like 5hthey will be cruising. They had an awesome come from behind twice to win game.
The Angels came from behind and romped the Texans on two occasions scoring 5 in the bottom of the 9th. N. Schanuel is the boss always on base, always hitting, and always scoring. He is the club MVP. The funny thing about him is he looks like a slightly asian Baker Mayfield it's hard to shake. Feels so shameful being happy LAA won, they could beat the Texans tomorrow again then lose 5/6 between the Phillies and Mets after the All star game. On the other hand should a miracle occur and the Angels win 5/6, then destiny will be in their hands and behind their backs pushing them. Also I keep wanting to call Mike Trout Tim Salmon all of a sudden and I cant stop messing up.
Blue Jays blew an opportunity to take some control of the division yesterday. Gausman had one bad ball/strike call at a crucial time, he unraveled for a couple pitches, and there went the game.
I still do not know what to make of them.
Giants lost a home game they really needed. Was almost ready to pull the trigger on them had they won.
I still have no futures wagers at this point.
I said Texans but meant the AZ Dbags.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
Theyre great hitters. Future bets now are all bets against LA Dodgers. It will be a lot harder once it's Shotime.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Just an observation, but dating as far back as his Angels days, it seems like Ohtani doesn't have his best hitting days on days that he pitches. Maybe just too much to focus on.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
Makes sense. Pitching is stressful on the body. Btw to all, Im losing some faith in the Astros. I pulled back a ton of +1000 bets on them and moved them to the Brewers. I feel if they start struggling like the last week, futures odds will come back up longer. Idk it feels like bettors will allow +1200 and +1500 on them again.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJJust an observation, but dating as far back as his Angels days, it seems like Ohtani doesn't have his best hitting days on days that he pitches. Maybe just too much to focus on.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
The Angels are playing so amateur today. So many errors and so many screw ups, they can't do anything right and they have given today's game away. I had noticed their record is absolutely pathetic for day games and it was also commented on by the announcers. Bad management, but now they have had 2 managers this year because old man Washington got sick. I'm really disappointed in them. Shanuel has not had a good game, been 0-3 or 0-4, the Angels always need him on base to win.
Past 2 days the Overs have not done too well. Overall 12-18. But I throw out games with 1 or 2 really strong pitchers, so my picks were a little better at 10-13. And then one game that would have been a loss was void when Kansas City's pitcher got sick and was scratched at the last minute, yesterday, so actual wagers went 10-12 for the two days. :(
But it has been a really good run of overs for the last several week. More than good for a player who just needs to break even playing through rollover amounts. :)
After the all-star break, I will continue to look at overs for the next month or so. But not blindly. Selective, based on pitchers, weather condition, in particular heat. The ball jumps and travels further in temperatures above 90 degrees.
But I am not going to give a running day by day commentary, as I have done this week. No real reason.
There will be a lot of interesting series after the All-Star game this Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Brewers back in LA., it's eggciting having Toronto in SF, A's battling the Guardians, Red Sox at Cubs, Astros at Mariners and LAA at Phillies. These are make or break series for some of these teams to survive and thrive or plummet into insignificance.
Fri, Jul 18
Red Sox
Cubs
2:20 PM
Fri, Jul 18
White Sox
Pirates
6:40 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Angels
Phillies
6:45 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Padres
Nationals
6:45 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Giants
Blue Jays
7:07 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Royals
Marlins
7:10 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Reds
Mets
7:10 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Athletics
Guardians
7:10 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Yankees
Braves
7:15 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Orioles
Rays
7:35 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Tigers
Rangers
8:05 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Twins
Rockies
8:40 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Cardinals
Diamondbacks
9:40 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Brewers
Dodgers
10:10 PM
Fri, Jul 18
Astros
Mariners
10:10 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Sat, Jul 19
Giants
Blue Jays
3:07 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Royals
Marlins
4:10 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Reds
Mets
4:10 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Angels
Phillies
6:05 PM
Sat, Jul 19
White Sox
Pirates
6:40 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Padres
Nationals
6:45 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Orioles
Rays
7:05 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Tigers
Rangers
7:05 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Athletics
Guardians
7:10 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Yankees
Braves
7:15 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Red Sox
Cubs
7:15 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Cardinals
Diamondbacks
7:15 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Twins
Rockies
8:10 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Brewers
Dodgers
9:10 PM
Sat, Jul 19
Astros
Mariners
9:40 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Sun, Jul 20
Giants
Blue Jays
12:05 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Orioles
Rays
12:10 PM
Sun, Jul 20
White Sox
Pirates
1:35 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Angels
Phillies
1:35 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Yankees
Braves
1:35 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Padres
Nationals
1:35 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Athletics
Guardians
1:40 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Royals
Marlins
1:40 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Reds
Mets
1:40 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Red Sox
Cubs
2:20 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Twins
Rockies
3:10 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Brewers
Dodgers
4:10 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Astros
Mariners
4:10 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Cardinals
Diamondbacks
4:10 PM
Sun, Jul 20
Tigers
Rangers
7:10 PM
I just like any excuse to bet, because I would otherwise be holding pat ideally.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Boston Red Sox on 10 game winning streak. Of course winning any 10 games in a row is an accomplishment, but they were 2 games under .500 and now they're 8 above and 3 games away from the AL East lead and in the wild card. I truly thought they were going to be finished and I counted them for dead.
MLB Remaining Schedule Strength | Tankathon https://www.tankathon.com/mlb/remain...edule_strength
The Cubs and Astros have two of the easiest schedules to finish in baseball. The poor Rockies have one of the toughest. Those are some choppy waters to imagine the journey these teams go through. There are a lot of teams facing some headwinds, some will feel it and some won't, for many it's all luck making their fate. Seeing all these matchups causes me some real pain I feel.
I am disappointed I couldn't watch the homerun derby and will not see the all star game.
Best teams against lefties so far:
Toronto 14-10, Detroit 18-7, KC 11-7, Houston 10-5, Seattle 15-10, Milwaukee 19-10.
Best teams against lefties so far:
Toronto 14-10, Detroit 18-7, KC 11-7, Houston 10-5, Seattle 15-10, Milwaukee 19-10.
Currently, five Major League Baseball teams play their home games on artificial turf: the Arizona Diamondbacks (Chase Field), the Texas Rangers (Globe Life Field), the Toronto Blue Jays (Rogers Centre), the Tampa Bay Rays (Tropicana Field), and the Miami Marlins (LoanDepot Park).
It turns out the LA Dodgers were behind the Miz being in the all-star game. The Dodgers manage the NL and play Brewers Friday, Saturday and Sunday, so Miz may not be able to pitch or the Dodgers want to see him pitch in person to try figuring him out.
Great inspiration seeing Skubal gave up 2 runs in 1 inniny seeing they're beatable. Points against me and my futures bets Otani got a hit which became a run.
I am not as excited about The Red Sox 10 game winning streak as some seem to be. 6 of those games were against the Nationals and Rockies, two last place teams. And while Tampa Bay is a decent team who Boston jumped over with the 4 game sweep just before the break, Tampa is only 3-11 in their last 14 games. So they were struggling and heading in the wrong direction even before the Red Sox series. BUT, you gotta beat the teams on your schedule and the Red Sox have done that the last 10 games, so I give them that.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
About a month ago when the Yankees lead the division by 7 games, I said, I thought they were overrated and said I was not even sure they would even win the division, so I am not surprised at their recent play. You take away Judge and they aren't that good.
The Red Sox just got Bregman back, which will help, but I don't think they have the pitching to win the division. But at +650, I am thinking of taking a shot with them (to win the division), just because I think they Yankees are over-rated and not that good. And yes, I know Tampa and Toronto are still in the mix, Toronto on top right now, but I don't see either as much more than a .500 team.
The Boston Red Sox, they would be a surprise. I dont think they're that good and they lose way to many 1 run games. I'd not take them to win the division personally. I've already made my decision in the AL and Im sure this influences my opinion. Best regular season record in baseball has some good choices, may want to look there.
I went ahead and pulled the trigger on Red Sox to win the division @ +650. :)Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
There is a 9 game stretch September 8 -18 that the Red Sox play 3 games at A's, 3 games against the Yankees at home, and 3 more games against the A's at home. During that same period the Yankees play 3 games vs Detroit (best record in baseball), 3 games at Boston and 3 games at Minnesota.
Assuming the Red sox take care of business against the A's maybe 4 or 5 of the 6 games) and beat the Yankees 2 of 3 at home, I see that as a plus 3-4 game stretch for the Red sox. So if they can just get to that stretch and be close (or a head even better), I give them the advantage.
Now of course that strech is 7 weeks away. there are a lot of little stretches in between that might favor the Yankees. But THAT stretch is only a week and a half before the end of the season, so like I said, if they can get there and be close, There should at least be a good hedging opportunity.
And just think what happens should Judge go down for even a short time. :rolleyes:
Betting odds say Yankees O/U 91.5 games, Blue jays 89.5, Red Sox 85.5. It's one thing I did right was bet the Angels over 71.5 and over 72.5, they're expected now 76.5. Maybe Devers being gone was the impetus they needed.
I have bets on the Brewers, Astros, Angels, so not taking any more stabs. I hate the Red Sox, and their pet gnats.
Just noticed on ESPN bet Red Sox +700 to win division.
I liked Freddy Peralta to win the Cy Young. Of course he is having a good season, and he may be traded to another team in contention. He'll ruin all my bets if he goes to the Yankees, Cubs, or Dodgers.
I think CY young betting is severely limited. Maxed out at $50.
Well 2 weeks before the trade deadline, not much expected going on, too many teams in contention and not much talent available for needs. Seems like certain teams will need to have to gamble against themselves and concede. The most important 2 weeks in baseball games coming up.
I must say ive been hesitant to bet the blue jays but Brewers Blue Jays has a nice ring . Today Im thinking about parlay bets on pennant winners.
Brewers have a nice team all around. Lot of young talent. They can't seem to hang on to budding superstars when they become free agent eligible, I guess with Milwaukee being a small market and all. But somehow are able to replace players with young homegrown talent for another 4-5 years until their turn at free agency. I guess that reflects a good farm system and some people who know how to run a farm system. And they somehow always have a decent closer. Even when they lose one, they some how have another in the wings.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
But I would be surprised if they beat the cubs for the division. The cubs have a powerhouse team, especially hitting, right there with Dodgers, Phillies, Yankees, Detroit. Of course the thing with a strong hitting team is that hitting is cyclical. Sometime they just go 8-10 games when no one seems to be hitting. If that were to happen to cubs at just the right time, like mid September when winds start blowing in at Wrigley and Brewers were close enough, they could overtake them. I wouldn't bet on it though. Cubs might open up a 6-7 game lead before then.
Toronto is an interesting team. One they play on turf, which I think is a disadvantage when they go on the road and don't play on turf. I also think they are a very average team. They have Vladdy Guerrera and a bunch of very average players to me. Springer and Kirk are sort of having career years. You have to decide if both have taken a giant leap forward, or if the second have will revert back to the norm for either or both. Especially Kirk. The guy looks like a bowling ball and has always been a light hitting defensive catcher.
Now speaking of playing on turf. A quick google search turns up 5 teams that play on turf. All play in Domes and I think all with retractable roofs. Wasn't it proven in the 1970's, 80's that playing on turf is bad for players. Ruins their knees earlier? That kind of thing. Why are teams still playing on turf in 2025?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
In Vegas the Raiders stadium has a dome and has real grass. The grass field is on wheels and slides or rolls out of the stadium to get sunlight and watering. Looks kind of funny when you drive by the stadium and see the field out in the parking lot getting some sun. ;) But apparently it works. Maybe that wouldn't work if you needed the field for 80 games a year instead of only 8 or 9. I don't know. :confused:
And what about retractable roofs? Can't they open the roof so a real grass field can get some sun? Instead of playing on a rug.
The Brewers do have one of the hardest remaining schedule out there, iirc .514 winning percentage of opponents. Of course the obvious answer is the Cubs, the Yankees, the Tigers, the Dodgers. Im contrarian here.
Im not even a contrarian actually, that's band wagon sentiment I must admit truth.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
The Angels have a 2.5% chance of making the playoffs, quite a long shot. They need to win 12 games more than the expectations of 76.5, to do that they will have to play .620 ball iirc to get 88 wins. Their recent 22 year old RHP Tyler Bremmer may play MLB in a few weeks. He isn't ready as they say with 2 pitches to start and needs to get a 3rd in.
The Brewers some also like, they have a hard schedule 2nd half of season. 515. This includes 3 games starting today against the Dodgers a 3 game series and the Cubs 8 games(key). The Brewers will most likely not trade Freddy Peralta everyone is saying, because his CY young worthy season has gotten them here and made them legitimately World Series contenders. At the present time, Sal Frelick may be injured, it is not known yet. Whatever trade talks surrounding the Brewers, nothing but good. Sure would be nice for them to sweep the Dodgers this weekend, but it is not actually expected of course.
Angels at Phillies, Red Sox at Cubs, Giants at Blue Jays, Brewers at Dodgers, Astros at Mariners, almost every series this weekend is must see, must win
It could be a good season bet for the Rockies to win over 40.5 games. They're so bad, nobody really wants their players. They'll have to finish their final 66 games with 19 wins, which means a winning percentage of .28787.
If the Dodgers can't rest players in September, that would be great for everyone betting against them. Let's hope they struggle. They would need the number 1 or number 2 seed to be in jeopardy or less likely, the division.
Suckscockontuesdays also sucks cock on fridays.
Little dick has a small penis in Asia every day.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I wanted to bet the Brewers+160 and the Astros+120, both dogs and I was like, this is good enough for a parlay, so added the Diamondbacks (With Brandon Pfaadt pitching.) These pitchers mentioned in Druff's bets sometimes I forget are bad or good, and Pfaadt I remembered as horrible but I took the Diamondbacks over the cardinals and the over 8.5. One way or another this Diamondback game will be hard to be confident either way throughout. This parlay will be a roller coaster, hope I find it exciting. Betting on Arizona didn't seem smart, but I would have thought betting against him would fail this time. So far so good, 1-0 bottom 2nd so far with 2 outs. The problem, somehow over 8.5 runs, so hopefully just a little.
S Frelick isn't in, that's going to be a loss, they win with him leading off more. He gets on base a lot to and gets good bases, can steal.
My emotions checking into this game were fearful even after seeing the Brewers at bat and score 0-0. If you're not winning you're losing.
DB up 5-0 early. Blue Jays scored early and both teams failed to score, also failed on Blue Jays over 4.5 so it started good and got impotent. Also have ML bets on DB and Brewers. I don't feel good about Houston but both the Brewers haven't scored yet.
Ha walk off double, the DB's up 6-0, I need Pfaadt to start giving up some runs for my over if he can blow some in the top of the 7th.
All legs coming in, but Houston down 1-2 to start the bottom of the 8th. Houston at least needs to hold and rally top of 9th. Brewers need to hold 2-0 lead.
That was fun until Seattle added 5 more runs. Houston seems over-rated now for sure, from accolades to the garbage can.
For whatever reason I took 5 road teams in a 5 team parlay for today. Giants over Blue Jays, Royals over Marlins, Reds over Mets, Angels over Phillies, Padres over Nationals. $50 for $1431. Definitely bucking some trends and odds.
Those teams mostly sucked i picked. Now, the Brewers +4000 best record in baseball seems like a steal the Way everyone else is playing. Im getting $100 bonus bet because 4he angels lost with 3 jone runs, so making at least some bets in it.
Of course can't bet it until tomorrow and I doubt it h9lds up
Each of the first 2 games after the all-star break, overs hit 9 of 15. That is 18-12 for the 2 days and continues the trend of the past 4 weeks or so.
Now there is an anomaly mixed within those numbers of the past 4 weeks. For whatever reason on Sunday's overs haven't hit as well. 27-33 over the past 4 weeks. Maybe it is because almost all games are day games on Sundays (except the espn Sunday night game). Or maybe it has something to do with Sunday being a get-away day. :confused: Don't know what it is, but Sunday seems to be the one day Overs don't do as well. Take that for what it is worth. :cool:
Some of the top teams, that would be teams with lower odds to win it all, are really struggling right now.
Tigers have lost 6 in a row. Dodgers have lost 9 of last 11. Houston was 1-6 coming into the day (winning 5-4 as I type this) and the Yankees....the mighty, mighty Yankees, who did manage to win today have the worst record in the American League over the past 5 weeks. During that time, they have gone from up 7 games to trailing the BlueJays by 3 games, a 10 game swing.
It is only July. More than 2 months left. But the Yankees in particular need to show a lot more. Especially pitching. And I am not sure they have any more to show.
Now off to play blackjack and hopefully keep the winning going.
Bet $1100 on the Tigers. Idk.
Took a crazy SGP:
Detroit ML
Under 6.5
Scoreless first
Texas first to score.
Will pay $2000 for $50 if Im lucky.
Added: I wasn't. Detroit scored first.
Other parlays still in contention:
Under 4.5 hits Tarik Skubal
DETROIT -.5 first 5 innings
Under 6.5 runs
$50 pays $272
Detroit -1.5
Under 6.5
9+ Tarik Skubal Ks
Detroit first to score
$50 pays $520
Detroit won 2-1. Luckily for me they took Skubal out before there could be a 5th hit, so only won the small parlay along with the ML. The score was 1-0, 1-1, and 2-1 so I sweat out the money line the whole game. Mission accomplished and Im maxed out on the Brewers to win the World Series.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
What kind of disrespectful asshole are you?Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawgQuote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Brewers odds came down from +2500 to +1800 to win the World Series and pennant from +1200 to +900. You could have made those bets instead of being worthless here.
If the Brewers win it all, Im looking at over $100,000. This would be very nice.
Approaching 100 games played. Just taking a look at standings vs odds to win the different divisions.
Cubs & Brewers tied with identical records. Cubs odds: -240. Brewer +170
Phillies a 1/2 game up on Mets. Phillies -190. Mets +125.
Toronto 3 games up on Yankees, 5 games on Boston. Yankees -110. Toronto +130. Boston + 1000
Dodgers 3.5 games ahead of Padres. Dodgers -1500. SD +750
Some of these spreads in odds compared to a couple games (in some cases tied or 1/2 game in the standings) are astonishing. Especially for 100 games in.
I already have the Phillies @ +240 (made when they were 5 games back) so if anything, I might bet the Mets if they could fall a couple games back and get to over +200. That would be a guaranteed healthy profit.
I also have Boston @ +650. The bet was made 3 days ago. They have lost 1 game in the standings since then and are now +1000. THAT is a healthy jump for losing a game in standings. :D
I think the Cubs win the division. But it is very tempting to take a well-rounded Brewers @ +170.
I continue to be astonished at the numbers for Yankees (3 games out) and Dodgers (-1500 with only a 3 games lead and not playing well). Almost seems like some kind of blind faith or support based on past years and reputation. These may not be the same teams that made it to the WS last year. :rolleyes:
Baseball is a lot of fun. :)
The Angels are not done, but almost done. By my assumptions before, they still need to win 6 more games if other teams don't blunder before the deadline. It's possible the Mariners will be swept by the Brewers, Red Sox swept by Philadelphia and the Yankees swept by the Blue Jays. The Angels beating the Mets in this series isn't very good, but possible and not expected. I still think the Brewers are awesome future bets and Astros very good to just good right now. Their come from behind victory yesterday was the kind of win which made me love the Astros.
There is no way to think the Angels will win tonight against the Mets, but I bet them in parlays anyway. In on3 +2.5 so at least have that as an option. Really the Angels should be done by the bottom of the 3rd, but we'll see if it actually happens.
Every time your Angels get to within a game of .500, they lose, falling back. I think after this happens 4 or 5 times, it could begin to effect the players if they are aware of it and I will bet they are. It is like a hump they can't get over.
They fucked up way too many day games (10-21, yes 10/31), just inexcusable to lose this many day games. There s really only one excuse, partying late on game day and being hung over. The last day game I watched, the Angels were so pathetic. Luckily it seems the Angels led me to the Brewers and Astros, but I would want all my bets to still have weight. I really don't like your Red Sox and I love -115 Red Sox will not make the playoffs. I hope you're right, but I prefer me being right and you being wrong. I also hope I'm wrong the Angels are Avocado toast.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Really?? Interesting data. Thanks for sharing.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesdayThey fucked up way too many day games (10-21, yes 10/31), just inexcusable to lose this many day games.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Day games. I haven't looked into it, but just my own feeling from betting overs the past month is that more overs occur at night games, which MLB classifies as 4pm start or later. It just feels like day games have more unders. One thing I can think of is there is often a period where shadows come into play. It is pretty hard on batters when pitcher is in the sunlight and batter in the shadows or vice versa. Harder to pick up the ball.
You also see both infielders and outfielders battling the sun. this actually should create MORE scoring. :confused:
In yesterdays games, all day games, I saw 5 pop ups dropped because of sun and/or wind. Not really "dropped" because players didn't even get a glove on any of the balls. Couldn't see the ball. 2 in the outfield resulting in doubled. And 3 in the infield. All three infield drops had no effect as the infield fly rule had been called in all 3 cases.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MDawg
Well, Detroit was the best team in baseball. Down 0-3 against the Pirates, doesn't seem like their day against Paul Skenes.
No big surprise I took Angels, Astros and Brewers tonight. 1/3 with Angels up 4-0 bottom of 4th.
Hahaha soon after posting Angels now up 4-2, still bottom of 4th.
Yeah Idk. Im just talking your word for these things as they're relatively new to me.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJReally?? Interesting data. Thanks for sharing.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesdayThey fucked up way too many day games (10-21, yes 10/31), just inexcusable to lose this many day games.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Day games. I haven't looked into it, but just my own feeling from betting overs the past month is that more overs occur at night games, which MLB classifies as 4pm start or later. It just feels like day games have more unders. One thing I can think of is there is often a period where shadows come into play. It is pretty hard on batters when pitcher is in the sunlight and batter in the shadows or vice versa. Harder to pick up the ball.
You also see both infielders and outfielders battling the sun. this actually should create MORE scoring. :confused:
In yesterdays games, all day games, I saw 5 pop ups dropped because of sun and/or wind. Not really "dropped" because players didn't even get a glove on any of the balls. Couldn't see the ball. 2 in the outfield resulting in doubled. And 3 in the infield. All three infield drops had no effect as the infield fly rule had been called in all 3 cases.
Wow aren't the Angels terrible making an error and allowing the winning run to score and achieve no outs.
Angels had a 5-0 lead and blew it now down 5-7 in the bottom of the eighth. All thanks to Taylor falling and not catching a basic pop fly by the wall. Absolutely pathetic I had hope, but Angels blow it too much. They could only come from behind maybe slim to none. Sad to not see them succeeding when others in the wild card race are faltering.
Astros making it interesting surviving bases loaded with 2 outs, staying up 4-3. Coming into today, Arizona literally 50/50 after 100 games. Arizona is creeping up into 4th on team home runs.
Added: after posting, Astros bunt on 1st then HR made team score 2 to be 6-3. Im still wanting to see greatness .600s easy from them after their recent 10 game crapper. They cannot do that again.
Houston and Milwaukee are making these games look easy. Hard to give the Mets the credit winning against the Angels. The Brewers are killing the Mariners. Cal Raleigh can hurt with long ball, and up to luck if those bombs are the game or insignificant. Beat him once, no guarantee you'll beat Cal Raleigh again. Have to respect the Mariners +1000 odds of pennant. Hopefully someone else knocks them out.
Astros and Brewers did start risking things in the end of the game. Had there been different circumstances and luck, in other games Seattle and Arizona could have won. The Arizona announcer didn't like how the Astros got lucky and arizona played stupid because a very, green rookie hit 2 home runs on fastball he was looking for.
I got scared and made small parlays Brewers and Brewers pennant parlay and Brewers Blue Jays. I miss those odds.
How stupid would I be to stop betting on Houston and Milwaukee. At this point, I should bet them every game if I already think they will continue successfully winning. I dont know how to handle it or the betting. Would I flat bet every game or vary my bets according to the odds. Will I lose money betting the Astros every game if they won a lot of games by season wins. Should I bet end of season wins to keep rolling expecting improved winning percentages.
Idk the Yankees are terrible. They will just fill holes I guess and win it all by the script. Trading probably won't be enough for them. Too much suckage going around. 3
Interesting day in baseball. Overs went a mediocre 7-6 with 2 pushes. If you threw out 2 games almost guaranteed to be under, Pittsburgh with Skenes pitching and SD at Miami, you did a little better.
I know there are only two of us talking baseball here on a daily basis, (plus the low-life Arab troll that keeps hijacking and trolling) but I hope there are a few silent players that have been reading for the last month and betting some of the overs and made some money. I think this trend will continue for another 3-4 weeks until Mid-August, barring some cold spell across most of the country.
So there are 162 games in the baseball season. So no one or two games is all that important. BUT for some of these teams teetering at .500 or a game below, as well as just outside the wild card race, the next 10 days are big and each game carries more weight than it should. Today seemed particularly bad for the Angels and Arizona. Losses they just can't afford, And the Angels blew a 5-0 lead to lose their game. BIG loss.
Milwaukee won again and looks great. actually moved ahead of the Cubs into first place. I keep saying I still think the Cubs will win the division, but they aren't hitting right now and that exposes some pitching issues that were covered up the first half of the year when they scored 6-7 runs every game. Cubs need a pitcher at the trading deadline.
I also keep refusing to believe in Toronto. I don't believe in the Yankees either which is why I took a flyer on Boston. But damn, if I am not starting to re-think the Bluejays. All they do is keep winning. Especially at home. The announcer on BIG Inning said they are 27-4 in their last 31 home games. THAT is kind of hard to believe. I will have to double check that.
I have a feeling the Yankees will be high bidder for Suarez (Arizona) at the trade deadline. But if they get swept at Toronto and don't start winning some games, it may not even matter. Well I guess they could still be a wildcard.
If you are into baseball and betting baseball, this really is a great time of year. :)
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
I am so burned out. I've spent so much money on the Brewers and it seems wise. I've spent so much on ahouston and it seems plausible. I've spent so much on the Angels and it seems like dead money. Every possible combination along with the Brewers to win pennant aka the two world series teams. Brewer-Blue Jays, Brewers-Astros, Brewers-Mariners. No matter what the regular season does, someone will have to beat the Dodgers 4/7, albeit hopefully just once in NLDS. Im spending a lot all tied up, so much I dont even really know all my bets. At this point laying off the Astros and putting it on Brewers was a good decision. I thought +1000 Houston would last and it did, because the Astros went 3-7 or worse. All bets on the best pitching teams, and the Brewers are base thieves, always wanting more, I was impressed seeing all winners. I just dont want to bet any more money, feels like too much if Im totally wrong. If Im right, then of course never enough.
The Tigers were declared champions too early. Their last 50 games 27/50 batting .241. I bet against them to lose to Pittsburgh which will still be hard to lose the series down 1 game, needing 2. Scenes pitched yesterday all too well.
Yes look day games, and the Angels are only known for HRs to win games. You could be right about these things. The only problem is it is too obvious a weakness.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJReally?? Interesting data. Thanks for sharing.Quote:
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesdayThey fucked up way too many day games (10-21, yes 10/31), just inexcusable to lose this many day games.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Day games. I haven't looked into it, but just my own feeling from betting overs the past month is that more overs occur at night games, which MLB classifies as 4pm start or later. It just feels like day games have more unders. One thing I can think of is there is often a period where shadows come into play. It is pretty hard on batters when pitcher is in the sunlight and batter in the shadows or vice versa. Harder to pick up the ball.
You also see both infielders and outfielders battling the sun. this actually should create MORE scoring. :confused:
In yesterdays games, all day games, I saw 5 pop ups dropped because of sun and/or wind. Not really "dropped" because players didn't even get a glove on any of the balls. Couldn't see the ball. 2 in the outfield resulting in doubled. And 3 in the infield. All three infield drops had no effect as the infield fly rule had been called in all 3 cases.
So........
Currently the Astros have the easiest schedule left in baseball at #30. The Dodgers have #28 and the Cubs #27. The Brewers had the #4 schedule, but as they have now played and swept the Dodgers twice, it's #7, primarily based on 8 games against the Cubs in regular season. Currently the Cubs have the tie breaker over the Brewers. In those final 8 games, the Brewers have to win 6 to retake the tie breaker. My current favorite bets are parlays Brewers Astros to win the pennant each. Them both being #1 seeds makes a big difference no matter the negativity about it to the point people think #1 seed at is a disadvantage. Brewers winning chant is "don't get hurt".