Fezzik’s record in Circa Millions is 47-20-3. He’s half a game out of first place.
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Fezzik’s record in Circa Millions is 47-20-3. He’s half a game out of first place.
Towards the end Fezzik talks about how he uses probability to calculate odds vs. payoff:
https://youtu.be/Dybpb2gt4so?si=ENJ2LcaY1xTPH1uS
I don't know about that, at some point/age people are less motivated and determined, especially if an old dog has to learn new tricks. Just imagine if you were a working-class bike mechanic for 20-30 + years, but suddenly... if you wanted to make some real money you would have to learn how to work on electric cars.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfDietz general AP and math poo poohing seem to be more about the fact that if anyone can make money following the math, using bonuses, middling, stale lines, locking up money betting both sides, off-market lines, and legitimate AP in sports. It renderers his investment services and 20+ years of experience useless.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Some new smart mathematical Advantage Player who's never even bet a sport in his life can look at all those things and figure out how to make 10 times per year than what Red has ever made.
One would think though that he would want widen his opportunities to start making some level of real money.
You might not want to do that at age 65+. One might want to just run around and talk about how great bike mechanics were back in the day and tell us about how all the other great bike mechanics were sometimes doing it wrong.
Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?
The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."
I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.
For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.
God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?
During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.
And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?
The sheer ignorance is stunning.
What I love about this thread is that the only person who could be remotely considered a "professional sports bettor," namely me, is being told why I don't know what I'm talking about by a bunch of "APs" who have no blessed idea of sports betting or its history. They haven't lived it, experienced it, survived it. They don't know the people; they really don't know much of anything other than what they can watch on YouTube in 2023. They think, because they stumbled onto a handful of jargon and figured out that things like arbitrage and slow numbers exist, that they've conquered the sports betting world.
Meanwhile, I have people who've taught college probability or done the logistical math for major corporations checking my math, but somehow, ostensibly, they've decided that I don't use math.
The thread is called "Professional Sports Betting." LOL.
Glad you didn't cricket us again. It is getting easier to get you to respond. I can't just nail you on bullshit which you can't respond. Just low-level observations on who you are.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
No one says anyone discovered anything. People rediscover (if that is the right word) this shit every year. It isn't rocket science and no one has claimed otherwise.
People just question your handicapping and whether you could ever beat cash betting these days without bonuses. Like I pointed out, there is little reason to think the lines you were getting back then are near as sharp as the lines today. You even admit you literally moved to be close by the place most likely to have the weak lines. lol.
No one said they inventing anything. You have just thoroughly mocked all this stuff for some time for using it so it makes little sense that you are utilizing it. The best one was you telling people they were shitty people for getting some friend to use their sign-up bonus for something in return. These are people who had no chance of signing up otherwise. Just laughable. You seem to sincere too. Most people on here are joking part of the time. You almost never are.
lol redietz. I love your posts.
I forgot, kudos to account. He is using the phrase "stale lines" as opposed to his previous "soft lines." So he actually listens to me on occasion. He's getting better at the basic language. "Stale" is very different from "soft." Less arrogant; less implicitly self-aggrandizing.
Next, he'll be contributing mightily to a thread named "Real Smart AP Sports Betting."
At least then I stay out of the thread. I don't qualify. Or I qualify about as much as account qualifies to contribute to this thread.
And relax, account. You don't want the only actual "professional sports bettor" posting here? You got it. I'll post trip report photos. That'll be it.
And for the record, you have no business signing other people up for bonuses. You are disqualifying them from future bonuses, which may be better. You are acting as if you absolutely know for the rest of their lives that they will have no interest in making free money. Unless you are kicking 80-90% back to them, you are exploiting them.
You had lines that were so much more weaker. People here have no reason to believe you can beat the lines on most sites or at least the ones that aren't sketch.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
A couple of years ago it was believed you had no idea about so much outside your little world of sports betting. It was clear in the things you said. You've mocked everyone. Not just those on this board. Well you mock what they say. Lol.
"lived it" meaning you had to go walk to the sportsbook and were limited in what options you actually had? I've lived in Vegas too. Some shitty ass ratty places. Last time I stayed I was in Bellagio with fountain view.
You have thoroughly mocked math.
Honestly after being called out on this shit, it truly appears you have learned something these past couple of years.
Who gives a fuck about who you know. Always about who you know. There are people on this board that in my opinion accomplished far more when you look at the summation of the competition they had to overcome.
You? - "meanwhile" I know a guy who did math at a big corporation. Ooooh someone taught college probability. Thats like the easiest math course there is for someone going a hard science route. I promise you. It takes an IQ to figure out how to apply all the stuff given the interesting scenarios but I couldn't tell you the difference in a combination vs permutation but that shit wasn't hard. Goofy shit. Not even a respectable school. Being a professor at a lower tier school is not something I sit back in awe at. Some dude wanted to be in academia - got a PhD - went down that whole route. If he was especially smart he'd ended up in a decent school at least. You act like we're supposed to be in awe. Good stuff Ditz. Love you.
I read your posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
but uhhh redietz I didn't use "stale lines" that I see. I don't want to be harsh on an older guy. I don't know what is going on. Maybe you shouldn't mock people for not reading?
I would use the term. It is basically a subset of softlines. stale lines just means you assume they're converge and this one hasn't moved. Soft-lines would just be lines that are off for whatever reason. Maybe they could be consider "stale lines" maybe not. I have only looked at prices and picked values. I have never been into sports betting to know what would be a stale line. I never timed my bets in anticipation of line moves. APs who look at it from this level aren't going to be either.
Account should probably explain why, if his "AP" techniques are so solid, he advocates exploiting other people for small amounts of bonus money. Really sleazy stuff.
Redietz telling people who get others to use signup bonus are being exploited. If someone understands and agrees it isn't exploited. Some dude who never bets sports is never going to bet sports and they give you your account? that is exploited?
Maybe redietz is such a shitty person he doesn't understand how people do favors for others but in most cases those people are compensated and the value is far than 0.
Ditz all flailing about trying to find something to insult APs over. Pathetic.
I never said AP methods are that solid or even that I bet sports.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
People enter into partnerships of varying types all the time in exchange.
Redietz should explain to me how someone who never bets sports, barely watches sports. Someone who hasn't even placed a bet in their life - is going to find value in their sports-book signup. The value of this is 0 to them so I can't even see how that is exploiting. That is worst case though. Typically they're given someone amount.
So lets see in Ditz's world, me giving someone money for something that is literally worth 0 to them and both people understand is "exploiting". Explain that? Fucking idiot.
Maybe instead of trying to get investors like you used to - you should learn a way to abuse bonuses through sign-ups so everyone is happy. They get a few hundred - you get a few thousand. THen everyone is happy.
Far happier than investing in you even if you list your EV on your site and then losing their shirt.
85 pages of this back-and-forth nonsense.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You've read all the posts and responded to most of them!
Nicely Done.
Billy Walters has no idea who Red is.
Billy Walters is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER. Repeat. Billy Walters is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER. Repeat. Billy Walters is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER. Anyone that gambles with an advantage is an advantage player. Google it.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
This doesn't even matter to me. Whether or not Redietz had any association with Billy Watters or not is completely irrelevant to me. It neither proves nor disproves that he has made money and/or supported himself from sports betting and the various contests and stuff for decades. Since I see no evidence that he didn't and he seems to have demonstrated some knowledge in the sports betting arena, I have no reason to doubt him. And the fact that he may sometimes be arrogant, or say something wrong like his EV comments, or even that he has attacked me, is not that reason. If some new info comes a long that proves that he didn't...fine. Until then....Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Now what is extremely odd to me, is Redietz getting so upset to the point that he attacks advantage players that have found things to do at an advantage in the sports betting arena in recent years. This is what advantage players are and do. Redietz seems to have taken offense, like he thinks sports betting is his thing and no one else has a right to find and play anything at an advantage. It would be like if myself, primarily a card counter, took offense and started attacking any AP's that primarily do other things that all of the sudden found something worth their time involving card counting. Maybe an incredibly good game or a side bet opportunity.
So that is the part that I find odd. If Redietz is who he claims and has been successful doing what he does for decades, the fact that some advantage players come along and find some things to do at an advantage in this current environment, in no way reflects upon him or diminishes anything he may have done.
An interesting fact about Monk Shoe Red is that when you Google his name it shows that there is a 90 year old and 66 year old Robert Dietz living at the Johnson City address with the unpaid property tax. In all likelihood we are looking at a dude who never left his mom and dad's side thru out life.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJThis doesn't even matter to me. Whether or not Redietz had any association with Billy Watters or not is completely irrelevant to me. It neither proves nor disproves that he has made money and/or supported himself from sports betting and the various contests and stuff for decades. Since I see no evidence that he didn't and he seems to have demonstrated some knowledge in the sports betting arena, I have no reason to doubt him. And the fact that he may sometimes be arrogant, or say something wrong like his EV comments, or even that he has attacked me, is not that reason. If some new info comes a long that proves that he didn't...fine. Until then....Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
Now what is extremely odd to me, is Redietz getting so upset to the point that he attacks advantage players that have found things to do at an advantage in the sports betting arena in recent years. This is what advantage players are and do. Redietz seems to have taken offense, like he thinks sports betting is his thing and no one else has a right to find and play anything at an advantage. It would be like if myself, primarily a card counter, took offense and started attacking any AP's that primarily do other things that all of the sudden found something worth their time involving card counting. Maybe an incredibly good game or a side bet opportunity.
So that is the part that I find odd. If Redietz is who he claims and has been successful doing what he does for decades, the fact that some advantage players come along and find some things to do at an advantage in this current environment, in no way reflects upon him or diminishes anything he may have done.
Dude's a basement dweller.....RIP
#metoo but I do it in the computer room on the second floor since we have no basement.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
MaxPen, I love you. I really do.
You realize I have a PM from you titled, "You are the only one to call it from the beginning?" Would you like to share it with the audience or shall I?
In any event, how do you draw your conclusions? Is it "AP" insight? You know, basically using "wild guessing" and "expected value" as synonyms.
I do wish my dad were alive. Pretty funny conclusion, though. Either (A) data bases often conflate the addresses, assets, and debts of people with the same name or (B) junior must be living with dad, who is 90-something. Which is more likely? Must be a fine mathematical sixth sense that guides some people to the answer. I think there are a couple of relevant books. I recommend Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos.
Anonymous dudes doing anonymous things while living anonymous lives. VCT, where geniuses congregate.
Monet -- I'll be in town next week. Let me know if you want lunch or something. We'll be at the Golden Nugget Sunday through Wednesday, then the Tuscany for a couple of days.
It's not hard if you are practiced at it. A simple example is from Texas Holdem. You are initially dealt 2 cards of a 52 card deck. The number of possible combinations is:Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
52 X 51/2 X 1 = 1,326
So let's break the equation down
52 X 51 = 2,652. There are 1326 duplicate permutations so the 2,652 is divided by 2 X 1 to get the true number of 1326 combinations.
When you are dealt a hand say like Ace of Clubs and King of Diamonds the hand can come in two different orders (permutations). You can catch the Ace first then the King second....or you can catch the King first then the Ace second. Those are the two permutations of the same combination.
C'mon, ditz. AP opportunities are drying up? Hahahahahahha!! That's a good one. Hahahahahha!!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
It's. Just. Gotten. Fucking. Better. Sports betting has become a part of AP because with the expansion of sportsbetting came all the free money. THE FREE MONEY, ditz, is the only reason AP's are now exploiting sports betting. The FREE MONEY is the only thing that makes it worthwhile to an AP.
When the FREE MONEY dries up the AP will move on. Who the fuck wants to work a gig where a world class bettor makes only a buck or two per $100 wagered? That shit is for simpletons like you, ditz.
AP's work the biggest edges in the business. Eat your heart out.
PS: Just found out my buddy, Randy McKay, is 30th in the Circa Millions. Should I take credit for it like you do your buddy's success?
If I put the EV of a machine play between 115% and 120% it's not a wild guess. I know I conservatively have a minimum of 115%.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
So you were a Big Time Sports Bettor living at the Budget Suites? I know exactly the place you're talking about. I stayed there around 1991 when I was super broke and couldn't afford the first and last month for an apartment. Great place for drugs and prostitution from what I understand. Oh and don't forget the strippers, I actually dated a stripper who lived there for a short while. They did have some nice hot tubs.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Who the hell here said anything about inventing anything related to sports betting? You have concocted that in your mind, I don't think anybody here said anything remotely close to that.
I wasn't even old enough to bet in the '80s. I was barely old enough to bet in the early 90s. Why are you calling us ignorant related to things you're making up, and then quoting me, no less?
When I started getting into the advantage play, I made the same rounds you did at the same casinos but just for something other than Sports.
The only thing I've ever said related to middling, stale lines, correlated parlays, Half Point parlay cards with stale numbers, bonuses, and various other angles is that you don't need to know a single thing about handicapping or have much knowledge about sports, in general, to beat Sports using various mathematical and statistic driven +EV methods. Why do you take issue with that statement?
I know you got all hot and bothered when I said handicapping isn't needed, tout Services aren't needed and sports investment businesses aren't needed to beat Sports. Any halfway intelligent noob with some dedication can make a living betting Sports with very little Sports knowledge. Does it hurt your feelings that bad thinking of the possibility that one doesn't need 20-plus years of handicapping knowledge and experience in one sport to make a decent living in sports betting?
How would you know anything about Advantage Play and what's going on? You're supposedly a college football specialist period.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Let me guess, someone told you? Well, guess what, you were wrong, they are wrong and you always will be wrong about this as long as there are enough casinos around.
I've been hearing the same "Advantage play is drying up" BS since the late 90s. For a well-rounded Advantage Player who isn't a "specialist", they can adapt. When one opportunity dries up, another one opens up, sometimes it's something much better. This is due to several factors...
Casinos are very competitive and they're always looking for new promotions to run, new machines, games, and ways to attract players, this includes sports betting as well. New and sometimes better opportunities pop up once something is gone simply because a dedicated Advantage Player is looking for something new/different to fill that void. Or their bankroll may have grown and now they are simply looking for bigger and better things they can now afford to play.
When someone says something is drying up, sure enough, it comes back with a vengeance. Sure, there are some machines, table games, Slots, and promotions that become extinct but there's always something good to replace them if you know what you're looking for.
Advantage play can be a lot like fashion where it ends up coming back in style, perhaps with a modern twist, but it's basically the same.
And just when you thought something was extinct, it gets resurrected.
I don't know how many times I've heard Advantage players say they were giving it up time to retire it's all over there's nothing to play and 6 to 8 months later they're hitting it bigger and harder than they ever were.
At times there have been a few lulls in specific areas, but there's always something going on and every year it just gets better and better if you're willing to dive into all different areas and aspects of Advantage Play. There's so much going on right now I can't even keep up. I'm not as motivated and hungry as I once was, but my eyes aren't closed to the fact that there are some really good opportunities out there if you're willing to look around put in the time to seek that stuff out.
I'm not ignorant enough to think there's only one way to skin a cat and my old-school thinking is or ever was the best way. I'm self-aware enough to know that I am now a dinosaur compared to a few of these Young Guns out there. But I'm certainly open-minded enough to move forward and learn new things and new ways. You feel free to stick to the one and only thing you know.... Suckering in investors and touting them on how good you are at college football contests. You couldn't pawn off your self-promotion recruitment package on Alan, but no big loss, because there's a sucker born every minute.
I'm the only one around here who has been verified as a basement dweller. Let's keep our facts straight.Quote:
Originally Posted by monet#metoo but I do it in the computer room on the second floor since we have no basement.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
I'd snap bet life roll that maxpen has iq higher than redietz.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
There's a new Max original show called, Bookie.
I put it in the category of a Comedy with some drama.
It's about a seasoned bookie who seems to be struggling due to the rise of legalized sports betting.
I'm not saying it's good or terrible, in my opinion, it's just okay, it just is what it is.
I put it on while I'm actually betting on sports and doing work online. It's entertaining enough and I don't feel like I'll miss anything while being distracted with other things.
I'm sure somebody(Red) will come along and tell us how inaccurate it is. :rolleyes:
Here's a breakdown of my various 2023 seasons of sportsbetting. Not as good as last year. If you recall, last year I crushed it amazingly hard in NFL, won in MLB, NCAAF, and NHL, and lost in NCAAB and NBA.
This year I did (and am doing) MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, and NFL.
Here are the totals thus far:
MLB: 75-75, -0.67 units
NCAAF: 21-31, -10.63 units
NFL: 20-21, -0.86 units
NBA: 13-12, -0.13 units
NHL: 7-7, +2.30 units
As you can see, the NHL/NBA/NFL/MLB all add up to around breakeven, and none were particularly good or terrible.
NCAAF, however, walloped me for a 10.63 unit loss in just 52 picks, which is horrendous.
Each bet was exactly one unit, so you can see I'm not playing any "unit" games as many handicappers do.
Cliffs: Sportsbetting is hard.
Yes it is.... that's why 99% of them go into touting/charging a fee for services or get investors and charge them a little something something. The other 1% don't want or need any of that they just do it all for themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Capt. Jack gives a lot of insight in this interview.
Red, you might not want to listen to this one. Your head will explode when Jack talks extensively about how he calculates EV on sports bets.
https://youtu.be/KYH2uZV571A
I'm sure. LOL.
Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.
I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.
All these mother fuckers following you around with a camera and *YOU* still don't have video !?!??!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
speaking of which, how screwed up is it that 3 hours before game time, the status of both starting QB's is up in the air? How do you handicap that? ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
It is starting to look like a sick Jalan Hurts, with flu like symptoms (for 3 days now) that has him weak will probably start and play, while Geno Smith will probably not play, but who know what changes in the next 3 hours. And who knows what a weakened Jalan Hurts looks like or how long he could go?
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionAll these mother fuckers following you around with a camera and *YOU* still don't have video !?!??!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I'm sure there's a point in there somewhere, account, but I'll be damned if I know what it is. You can just email me if you want to join us here with your pithy observations and savvy. We're here until Saturday morning. No phantom South Point stuff.
You're constantly talking about some guy filming you or media at your book club... and yet.. nothing to see. I would think some of these keen observations of yours would have found their way into a video by now.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzQuote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionAll these mother fuckers following you around with a camera and *YOU* still don't have video !?!??!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
I'm sure there's a point in there somewhere, account, but I'll be damned if I know what it is. You can just email me if you want to join us here with your pithy observations and savvy. We're here until Saturday morning. No phantom South Point stuff.
Heck, I'd even agree to not give you a hard time over it if that is the issue.
Line for line no one has posts worth reading as much as you.
Well only true if you take out the one-line wonders on here.
BUT Lol anyone going to see you... come'on man. Be real. Thats almost kewl level stuff.
20th place? That's fantastic. And 20th pays $250 too. Whoopeeee!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Who do you think is worth more money, you or Capt. Jack?
The guy selling the picks charges $29 a week or $100 a month. He has 974 subscribers so is pulling in about 100K per month. And this is just one small time scammer on Tik Tok.
The big money is in selling the picks to the suckers.
https://youtu.be/QFLY67do9hM
Let me get this straight. The dude who doesn't even own a home and travels the country playing slot machines but can't file as a professional (I wonder why) has decided that someone playing a contest is somehow beneath him. And he has zero idea how much the person actually wagers on the plays in the contest.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm20th place? That's fantastic. And 20th pays $250 too. Whoopeeee!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Who do you think is worth more money, you or Capt. Jack?
Okay, makes perfect sense to me.
The guy who makes nothing is criticizing others who make more. And he's criticizing the others who make more for not making enough. LOL.
The mickey crimm school of advantage play.
Just to clarify, everyone here looks down on contests.
Quote:
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
How can you look down on someone's handicapping record? And why would you?
LOL. Oh wait, they are doing something you cannot do, and it's documented. How about that?
It's a damned shame that no one at VCT appreciates Fezzik's contest record.
Oh well...I'm sure the VCT luminaries know best. Nothing screams "credibility" more than a collection of anonymous folks doing unverifiable things. I hear there's a snipe hunt tomorrow. Let everyone know who shoots the snipe.
You're right, I did not phrase that well.
We don't look down on contests, we just don't care about them. We look down on contest players who mistake them for actually making money betting sports.
Well at least I've just taken myself to the plus side on both NFL and NBA.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYes it is.... that's why 99% of them go into touting/charging a fee for services or get investors and charge them a little something something. The other 1% don't want or need any of that they just do it all for themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I still believe there is value right now in some high-total overs, though not as much as 6 weeks ago. Scoring is way up this year, especially involving certain teams, and the books don't quite know how to set those lines yet.
LOL! I spend more on breakfast than you make. My fuel bill is more than you make. You're stuck in those free contests because you're broke. Hell, you can't even pay a $500 tax bill. As much as you've bragged about your handicapping abilities, after 40 years you should have a mansion in Vegas instead of a shack in Tennessee.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzLet me get this straight. The dude who doesn't even own a home and travels the country playing slot machines but can't file as a professional (I wonder why) has decided that someone playing a contest is somehow beneath him. And he has zero idea how much the person actually wagers on the plays in the contest.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm20th place? That's fantastic. And 20th pays $250 too. Whoopeeee!!!!Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Who do you think is worth more money, you or Capt. Jack?
Okay, makes perfect sense to me.
The guy who makes nothing is criticizing others who make more. And he's criticizing the others who make more for not making enough. LOL.
The mickey crimm school of advantage play.
If Steve Fezzik, Bill Krackomberger or Capt. Jack Andrews had publicly criticized Billy Walters' strategy like you have it would be a huge story in the gaming media. But when the criticism comes from an unknown hack living up a hollow in Tennessee it goes unnoticed.
Bragging about the successes of friends, which you are constantly doing, as if that gives you some kind of higher status, is not going to change your standing. It's school yard "my dad can beat your dad" bullshit.
Todd needs to get redietz on his radio show to talk about "what Walters got right, and what he got wrong." That could be the start of getting some publicity for a story that should have been huge in the gambling world.
The problem with big words ...
https://youtu.be/arupGvTToQ0
"You are a kite dancing in a hurricane, Mr. Crimm."
Sorry, I'm hanging out with a filmmaker, so I'm in movie mode today.
And we ask why no video after all this talk.. and he suddenly acts like he doesn't understand English.
A filmless filmmaker no doubt.
No more beating around the bush. Do you consent to going on Pokerfraudalert Radio and publicly discussing your critique of Walter' sports betting strategies? Axel said he would be on.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You, sir, are a fart in the wind.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Well, you bet for yourself and you're not a tout or looking for investors. My comments were a cautionary tale. Touts and investment recruiters love to pretend they are winning handicappers glomming on to old records where they happen to run well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan DruffWell at least I've just taken myself to the plus side on both NFL and NBA.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYes it is.... that's why 99% of them go into touting/charging a fee for services or get investors and charge them a little something something. The other 1% don't want or need any of that they just do it all for themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I still believe there is value right now in some high-total overs, though not as much as 6 weeks ago. Scoring is way up this year, especially involving certain teams, and the books don't quite know how to set those lines yet.
So you should have plenty of video telling us "what Walters got right and what he got wrong." How about posting up the video here.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
LOL! We all know that ain't gonna happen. Hahhahahahahahha!! You won't commit to doing the pokerfraudalert radio show. Why is that? I don't blame you for being chickenshit about it because it will expose for the quack you are.
I have no doubt this probably helps Spanky increase revenue, however, I noticed some questions in the survey that seem to be geared toward making sports betting better for everyone including pros. I don't know if you have to get the email to fill out the survey, I'm going to try to put a link to the survey and see if I can't put the survey questions here just in case someone decides they would like to fill it out.
Greetings Sports Betting Enthusiasts,
Since PASPA was overturned in 2018, there has been a groundswell of change in the US sports betting landscape. Almost 40 states now offer sports betting or are working to introduce it.
In concert with these developments, I have worked to provide two events that focus on the players within the sports betting ecosystem. One is Bet Bash, and I am proud to announce that the Fourth edition of this event will be held at Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas from August 6-9, 2024.
The second is the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame, located within the Circa Resort & Casino, which enshrined its first ten members in conjunction with the 2023 edition of Bet Bash and will add several more at the conclusion of 2024’s Bet Bash.
Both of these events were directed at bettors, and they have both been well-received by the betting public.
In order to better serve the bettor, I have attached the following anonymous survey to help shape our existing products and explore new areas where we can serve you. I would sincerely appreciate it if you would take a few minutes and fill out the attached questionnaire and return it by 12/25/23.
Here is to you always having the best of it,
Spanky
(Please ignore this email if you have already filled out this survey).
Survey
Greetings Sport Betting Enthusiasts:
Since PASPA was overturned in 2018, there has been a groundswell of change in the US sports betting landscape. Almost 40 states now offer sports betting or are working to introduce it.
In concert with these developments, I have worked to provide two events that focus on the players within the sports betting ecosystem. One is Bet Bash, and I am proud to announce that the Fourth edition of this event will be held at Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas from August 6-9, 2024.
The second is the Sports Gambling Hall of Fame, located within the Circa Resort & Casino, which enshrined its first ten members in conjunction with the 2023 edition of Bet Bash and will add several more at the conclusion of 2024’s Bet Bash.
Both of these events were directed at bettors, and they have both been well-received by the betting public.
In order to better serve the bettor, I have attached the following anonymous survey to help shape our existing products and explore new areas where we can serve you. I would sincerely appreciate it if you would take a few minutes and fill out the attached questionnaire and return it by 12/25/23.
Here is to you always having the best of it,
Spanky
xxxxxxxxxxxxx@gmail.com
Not shared
* Indicates required question
1. Among sportsbooks to form and launch in the U.S. post-PASPA, what have they done particularly well, from a product or user experience standpoint?
*
2. How much time per week do you devote to your sports betting activities (however you define them, which may include reading injury reports, watching games, etc.)?
3. In states where sports betting is legal and regulated, what complaint(s) or frustration(s) do you have with the way that state-licensed sportsbooks conduct business?
*
4. What are your frustration(s), if any, with the way that regulators in your state are going about the business of overseeing/regulating licensed sportsbooks (online and B&M)?
*
4-b. If you were dissatisfied by your experience with a licensed and regulated sportsbook, how would you go about filing a formal complaint, if necessary?
5. If an advocacy group formed and attempted to represent the interests of American sports bettors before governmental agencies, legislatures, and among operators, what issues would you like to see this group take up that you have not already identified in a previous response?
*
6. Would you be interested in being a member of a sports betting advocacy group?
*
7. What is your standard betting unit size in dollars?
*
8. Do you consider yourself:
*
Square
Recreational bettor
Sharp recreational bettor
Semi-pro bettor
Professional bettor
None of these apply
9. Please share as much or as little as you are willing about your age, state/country of residence, occupation, or anything else you think may be relevant to understanding the background of persons interested in bettor advocacy.
*
10. Have you been banned or limited by any sportsbook? If so, which book(s)? What do you believe were the circumstances that led to the book’s decision?
*
11. With how many different sportsbooks have you made at least one deposit and wager?
*
12. Do you use sportsbooks promotions or bonus offers? If so, which ones?
*
13. How much media/content concerning sports betting do you consume (podcasting, reporting, social media)? Please identify any you deem of decent quality.
*
14. Are you a paying member of SpankOdds?
*
Yes
No
15. Have you ever attended BetBash?
*
Yes
No
16. Anything at all you wish to add, please note here:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...1dHNQ/viewform
Would anyone on here actually bet money that Redietz will appear on Dan Druff's show?
I'd have to be given 10:1 at least...
He might have sold exclusive rights to the filmmaker that's always shadowing him.:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
I'm sure he's been sitting around trying to figure out how he can wiggle out of this and save face.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPenHe might have sold exclusive rights to the filmmaker that's always shadowing him.:cool:Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
It'll be a glorious excuse once unveiled.
I'd like to wake up Christmas morning to know that the true and accurate meaning of EV will be revealed.
In your case: Elderly Virgin
Merry Christmas
---> Child Genius (American TV series).Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
https://anagram-solver.net/In%20your...0?partial=true
Monty Burnt with the beautiful wife ftw I'm sure.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
I have slept with over 50 different girls, no hookers or fatties(perhaps a few chubsters) I always forget a few, so it's hard to pinpoint the exact number. Zero black girls, Unlike Boz, I'm just not attracted to them, so I never really tried. A few Latinos and a few Filipino girls but most of them have been American White girls.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Most of them were between 1990 and 2002ish from ages 18 to 29.
Mission146 told me in a troll post that I never talk about women. He was implying that I was gay or some shit. I never responded to that shit. But now, here you go Mission.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI have slept with over 50 different girls, no hookers or fatties(perhaps a few chubsters) I always forget a few, so it's hard to pinpoint the exact number. Zero black girls, Unlike Boz, I'm just not attracted to them, so I never really tried. A few Latinos and a few Filipino girls but most of them have been American White girls.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Most of them were between 1990 and 2002ish from ages 18 to 29.
I hate to admit what a whore I was but I was pretty good at snagging women out of the bars. My number is somewhere around 200. Some were one night stands, some were longer. I was pretty much a broke ass slob too. I didn't slow down until I got older, had a lot of money, and the women had kids and shit. Lame bitches can't pay their bills, panhandling kids want bailed out of jail and shit. Fuck all that. I'll just do without in my old age. The hormones don't act up like they used to anyway.
Can you even BEGIN to imagine how posts like these last two affect the mind of someone like AQ? Right about now he's proposing to his right hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmMission146 told me in a troll post that I never talk about women. He was implying that I was gay or some shit. I never responded to that shit. But now, here you go Mission.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI have slept with over 50 different girls, no hookers or fatties(perhaps a few chubsters) I always forget a few, so it's hard to pinpoint the exact number. Zero black girls, Unlike Boz, I'm just not attracted to them, so I never really tried. A few Latinos and a few Filipino girls but most of them have been American White girls.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.Singer
Most of them were between 1990 and 2002ish from ages 18 to 29.
I hate to admit what a whore I was but I was pretty good at snagging women out of the bars. My number is somewhere around 200. Some were one night stands, some were longer. I was pretty much a broke ass slob too. I didn't slow down until I got older, had a lot of money, and the women had kids and shit. Lame bitches can't pay their bills, panhandling kids want bailed out of jail and shit. Fuck all that. I'll just do without in my old age. The hormones don't act up like they used to anyway.
Bbbbbwwwaaahhhhhhhhh, what's next, we gonna have the contest to see who can get broads, hey hey????
Robert is imagining me jerking off these days. A creep worth ignoring. Let him desperately try to get respect amongst real winning gamblers or winding up Kewl by spewing old old man style hate.Quote:
Originally Posted by soxfan
What a winner.
Chinamaniac is a known successful sports bettor. This is what he just wrote on Twitter:
china
@chinamaniac
"I believe in my 8 or so years being in involved in sports betting that 2023 saw the market get the toughest of any of these years compared to the prior year.
-Handicappers and bettors have gotten better
- Most markets with ripe fruit do not last as long
-Operators offshore have made some adjustments to protect themselves
-Brick and Mortar establishments have made significant efforts to stop the blood shed that they were taking
Markets tend to get more efficient over time and I am not saying sports aren't beatable anymore but it certainly takes more dedication and focus than ever before."
Information is too symmetrical these days. S*** is all over Twitter and you pay for these sites that lay it all out there for you. Too many newly found pros. If you look at the books as competition Then there are a small pool of losers. Infinite sports nerds happy to break even. Destiny.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Not enough week lines. lines are way too sharp. Right redietz?
Is redietz still posting on other Sites?
Ozzy has been missing for sometime.
Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
---> The Dawning of the Apocalypse.Quote:
What happened to Ozzy of vegas casino talk?
https://anagram-solver.net/what%20ha...oogle_vignette
Maybe, he suffered a big gambling loss, or, an even bigger loss, to not show up for the holidays. Ha. Anyway, he was another useless poster.
Haven't sen old, Red posting over at GF's, either. I did see where some of MDawg's posts were deleted. I guess old, KJ complained, but, really, who could give a shit about something like that, except KJ, who's 100% oblivious to the real world.
I guess it depends on your measuring stick, but I don't detect operator bloodshed. The US operators (outside Nevada) have consistently generated big profit margins which are now bigger than ever. But technically in some cases the operators may not be "profitable" because of debt loads.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Good read from LSR:
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/11...ng-hold-trend/
I need to look into their podcast.
First graph in the article shows nationwide hold % rising from 6 toward 9% in the five-year span of legalized sports. As shown in the second graph, this is largely attributable to FanDuel which individually is now >11%. How do they get 11% when the standard -110 edge is 4.5? Likely suspects are live, in-game betting; and parlays. Margins on same-game parlays "anecdotally approach 20%."
Nevada is still down in the 5s (but with big margins on the dwindling parlay card action). Latest 12-month numbers:
NV mobile sports is only holding 4%. Another LSR article indicates 66% of NV's volume now originates online, although I'm not sure how that squares with those numbers. Nationwide, volume is overwhelmingly online. New Jersey now exceeds 96% online. Eyeballing the NJ data (on another site), hold % appears roughly the same online as retail (b&m).
Incidentally, below are the NV #s from 20 years ago when the only online options were offshore:
Those hold %s look roughly the same as today. Horse book win was in the 80s compared to only 30 million this year. Statistically it's not true that we're more obsessed with Race today.
Ooh, from the last line of my previous post.
---> Congratulations. You have just discovered the secret message.Quote:
Originally Posted by 1Hit1der
https://anagram-solver.net/1%20guess....?partial=true
How about that? The secret message was 2/7 or 2 July in 1961. Given that "snake eyes" 1 and 1 has a chance of 1/36 = 2.[7] repeat %---> 2/7. Goes with the two 1's in my latest username, too. And, again, there's that 36 ---> √9 and 6, for (10*9 + 6*1) ---> 1961. Ha.
https://youtu.be/JNbUUSuiEho
And, just, noticed that the time of the video, 5:47 ---> 547 = (1 + 6*91) ---> 1691, or 1961.
My honest assessment of the above is that:
1) If you check ATS NFL records in contests with mega-numbers, what you've seen is that (at least prior to last week), 2023 NFL handicapping was yielding results as positive and profitable as any I have ever seen for a given season. What this implies or the reasons for this aren't something I have much opinion regarding, at least for the moment.
2) "More dedication and focus" may or may not have much to do with whether one wins betting sports. If you're not working at it 24/7, you're probably not going to win much of anything in the first place.
3) I think newcomers to sports betting, who are legion, were likely spoiled by the pandemic effects on spreads, which enabled casual bettors to take advantage of breaking news regarding who was ill or sitting things out. Numbers moves were huge and correct more often than not because they were linked to concrete events, namely people not being available. Folks like Todd (Dan Druff), who were conscientious and quick in their decisions, could make percentage moves. Between Covid and NBA "resting," those who pulled immediate triggers based on availability info were able to grind away at a more successful percentage than history would suggest. I think these kinds of numbers moves spoiled inexperienced souls into thinking sports betting was easier than it is. Once the Covid moves started clearing up, things eased back into the difficult lane. The NBA is also beginning to put the hammer down on the load management nonsense. Back to the grindstone, folks. Life ain't that easy in the long-term.
Finally, being introduced as a "known, successful sports bettor" is really a nothing cookie. The words "known" and "successful" are no substitutes for actual ATS records or accomplishments. "Known" is a relative term; anybody with a YouTube channel qualifies as "known." Not exactly a great vetting process. "Successful" is one of those mealy-mouth words that can mean whatever one wants it to mean.
Very good. Someone has some brains. The interesting immediate question for me is whether the record-setting 2023 ATS numbers for leaders in various NFL contests will translate into depressed NFL take when all is said and done for the season, or whether there's no correlation whatsoever. Any thoughts, Dom?Quote:
Originally Posted by Don PerignomI guess it depends on your measuring stick, but I don't detect operator bloodshed. The US operators (outside Nevada) have consistently generated big profit margins which are now bigger than ever. But technically in some cases the operators may not be "profitable" because of debt loads.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Good read from LSR:
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/11...ng-hold-trend/
I need to look into their podcast.
First graph in the article shows nationwide hold % rising from 6 toward 9% in the five-year span of legalized sports. As shown in the second graph, this is largely attributable to FanDuel which individually is now >11%. How do they get 11% when the standard -110 edge is 4.5? Likely suspects are live, in-game betting; and parlays. Margins on same-game parlays "anecdotally approach 20%."
Nevada is still down in the 5s (but with big margins on the dwindling parlay card action). Latest 12-month numbers:
NV mobile sports is only holding 4%. Another LSR article indicates 66% of NV's volume now originates online, although I'm not sure how that squares with those numbers. Nationwide, volume is overwhelmingly online. New Jersey now exceeds 96% online. Eyeballing the NJ data (on another site), hold % appears roughly the same online as retail (b&m).
Incidentally, below are the NV #s from 20 years ago when the only online options were offshore:
Those hold %s look roughly the same as today. Horse book win was in the 80s compared to only 30 million this year. Statistically it's not true that we're more obsessed with Race today.
This all ties into my disdain for the "parlay calculators" WOV kept mentioning (for years). Hell, the offshores now PROVIDE parlay calculators so people can work out their own demise. Having said that, there are currently some ways to leverage certain kinds of offshore "parlays-that-aren't-really-parlays" these days, but I certainly won't provide details on those. Seed would, after all, get mightily upset.
Keep truckin', Dom. It may be pearls before swine, but it is refreshing to see someone asking the right questions with the right data.
You're Mr Mealy Mouth if you won't go on Druff's show. Pretty simple. Just say you won't and we can put it behind us.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
Or continue to be a phoney and fraud. Druff will treat you with respect. If you insist on having everything in a venue that you control, whether flying out somewhere or what have you, then it just shows how weak your "expertise" is.
Come'on man, show us up. Prove you aren't the phone and fraud.
Glad to see you back. I was worried.
Evidently you have not followed my trip report under Sports Betting. I try to not post in a "Professional Sports Betting" thread featuring no professional sports bettors, but that's just me.
Do you really think I would be hesitant to go on a radio show? You don't even post under your own name. It's pretty funny -- the anonymous dude saying a real person might not want to go on a radio show. You can't even be you on a forum.
Red, you've learned absolutely nothing after watching kew make a GINORMOUS fool of himself in his never-ending, humiliating quest to convince people that he's something he most definitely is not.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
If you were even half the sports betting or handicapping guy you for some reason want the world to know you as, you would not be constantly posting this stuff about yourself ON THIS PUNY & MEANINGLESS, NO-IMPACT FORUM....just as you wouldn't be so desperate to reel in "investors" to help finance your flailing whateveryoucallit.
Please wise up.
I read it. More of the same from you that is irrelevant to anything on here.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You've been caught so many times with bullshit. The press at your bookclub. You telling me Stanford suggest Ivermectin. Once you get out of the realm of unverifiable stuff it starts to become apparent.
If you're not hesistant then go on the show. What is so hard about this? What is the hold up? It is clearly more bullshit from you.
Yea, I don't post under my name. When we nailed it down as to what the benefit would be you boiled it down to having fame for your "accomplishments". Movie deals. Podcasts. Shit like that. I am not so arrogant to think my life is worth any of that and I don't go around claiming to be some mobster expert because I was a runner for someone back in the 80s.
Real pro-gamblers have money as an accomplishment and not a $500 tax bill. FACT
Anyway, I have never claimed to be an expert in anything or tried to sell my expertise unlike you. Me posting under a pseudonym is completely standard and you will be hard pressed to find many who don't practice this. Maybe if you had learned anything in the past 20 years it would be more clear to you.
Anyway, so no pro-sports bettors post in this thread. I have to agree but am surprised you've admitted such about yourself.
Technically, I filed as a professional gambler two or three years when I was in my 30's. The majority of the rest of my IRS filings have been as proprietor or partner in a business.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionI read it. More of the same from you that is irrelevant to anything on here.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You've been caught so many times with bullshit. The press at your bookclub. You telling me Stanford suggest Ivermectin. Once you get out of the realm of unverifiable stuff it starts to become apparent.
If you're not hesistant then go on the show. What is so hard about this? What is the hold up? It is clearly more bullshit from you.
Yea, I don't post under my name. When we nailed it down as to what the benefit would be you boiled it down to having fame for your "accomplishments". Movie deals. Podcasts. Shit like that. I am not so arrogant to think my life is worth any of that and I don't go around claiming to be some mobster expert because I was a runner for someone back in the 80s.
Real pro-gamblers have money as an accomplishment and not a $500 tax bill. FACT
Anyway, I have never claimed to be an expert in anything or tried to sell my expertise unlike you. Me posting under a pseudonym is completely standard and you will be hard pressed to find many who don't practice this. Maybe if you had learned anything in the past 20 years it would be more clear to you.
Anyway, so no pro-sports bettors post in this thread. I have to agree but am surprised you've admitted such about yourself.
I'm no mobster expert. I just know sports gambling and happened to spend 90-100 days each year in Las Vegas during the events in the movie Casino and beyond. And I was never a runner for anyone. At some point, I'm hoping you'll get a few things correct. I'm rooting for you.
Of course you duck the question about why you can't go on Druff's show for some actual verifiable exposure. Instead we always get endless smoke and mirrors. Deflections. It is clear as day you're scared to go on the show. You can say you aren't but you won't give one good reason. I'm actually more curious and have no desire to make fun of you if you were to do as such. I mean if you start insulting APs and others then you'd get a response but if you just talk about your experiences and what you know then you won't be getting shit from me. So don't let that scare you off.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietzTechnically, I filed as a professional gambler two or three years when I was in my 30's. The majority of the rest of my IRS filings have been as proprietor or partner in a business.Quote:
Originally Posted by accountinquestionI read it. More of the same from you that is irrelevant to anything on here.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
You've been caught so many times with bullshit. The press at your bookclub. You telling me Stanford suggest Ivermectin. Once you get out of the realm of unverifiable stuff it starts to become apparent.
If you're not hesistant then go on the show. What is so hard about this? What is the hold up? It is clearly more bullshit from you.
Yea, I don't post under my name. When we nailed it down as to what the benefit would be you boiled it down to having fame for your "accomplishments". Movie deals. Podcasts. Shit like that. I am not so arrogant to think my life is worth any of that and I don't go around claiming to be some mobster expert because I was a runner for someone back in the 80s.
Real pro-gamblers have money as an accomplishment and not a $500 tax bill. FACT
Anyway, I have never claimed to be an expert in anything or tried to sell my expertise unlike you. Me posting under a pseudonym is completely standard and you will be hard pressed to find many who don't practice this. Maybe if you had learned anything in the past 20 years it would be more clear to you.
Anyway, so no pro-sports bettors post in this thread. I have to agree but am surprised you've admitted such about yourself.
I'm no mobster expert. I just know sports gambling and happened to spend 90-100 days each year in Las Vegas during the events in the movie Casino and beyond. And I was never a runner for anyone. At some point, I'm hoping you'll get a few things correct. I'm rooting for you.
Like I said I don't claim to be an expert in anything on here and it sure as fuck ain't you. You're so deluded to you think people should pay attention to your life story but you've won little if any cash. I get the important stuff right and that sure as fuck ain't you.
LOL. Account, I think it's finally seeping into your brain that I'm not scared of anything.
Robert, I thought you would chime in with a good word regarding Vic and Anthony's. You're the forum steakhouse connoisseur. Any particular recommendations from the menu? We ate too much -- we each had a steakhouse salad prior to the steaks, which was overkill even though we split just two sides. The salads were gigantic.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob.SingerRed, you've learned absolutely nothing after watching kew make a GINORMOUS fool of himself in his never-ending, humiliating quest to convince people that he's something he most definitely is not.Quote:
Originally Posted by redietz
If you were even half the sports betting or handicapping guy you for some reason want the world to know you as, you would not be constantly posting this stuff about yourself ON THIS PUNY & MEANINGLESS, NO-IMPACT FORUM....just as you wouldn't be so desperate to reel in "investors" to help finance your flailing whateveryoucallit.
Please wise up.