Printable View
And by the way Alan, these people you are referring to as "my supporters"? :confused: What is that about? Some of these members criticize me harshly on other topics. They just happen to understand the math involved on this one. (Unlike you apparently). :rolleyes:
That never stopped you before.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
As I said, he'll never understand. No reason to even waste time on him.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
What are the minimum number of trials for the earn to be realized?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
When does the math kick in?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Why is a calendar year considered long term, vs any other length of time? What does the calendar have to do with results?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
I've been reading up on betting management. And from what I've read so far you shouldn't expose more than 10% of your bankroll to any session. So does this mean kewlj has $88,000 or more as a gambling bankroll? If so, then I accept his $8800 one day loss as fitting his bankroll size.
Do the cards know whether it's 11:59pm on 12/31 or 12:01am on 1/1?Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
If the player has a "work day" what determines how many hours that is? Does it have to be the same number of hours each day?
My understanding is that the strategy is to play until you get you max bet out on the table, then leave right away when the count drops. How many hours is that?
I don't know what constitutes "long-term". A topic often debated, as you well know. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyWhy is a calendar year considered long term, vs any other length of time? What does the calendar have to do with results?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Early in my career, in one of the two popular books about the MIT team from the 90's/2000 era (there have been MIT teams dating back to the 60's and probably before that), there was a phrase "law of large numbers" used, which loosely defined long-term as 50,000 rounds. That seemed reasonable to me. And my own experience was that I had 4 different losing 6 month periods, which for me is anywhere from 35-40 thousand rounds, but by the end of each of those years results was pretty close to expectation. So I went with 50,000 rounds for a long time.
I went with that up until 2014 to be exact. That was the year (outlier to the negative) that my results for the entire year were FAR below expectation. Over 80,000 round and I was at 30% expectation. ($27,000 actual results vs $87,000 EV). :( So, that's when based on my own experiences, 50,000 rounds became too short to be "long-term" or the long run. :rolleyes:
I have been going with a year since. That's about 80,000 rounds most years. Despite an outlier year in each direction, I still feel comfortable saying a year or 80,000 rounds is long-term or "the long run". But to each his own. :cool:
I personally don't like the calendar year for tracking results, because that is not ideally how blackjack works. Unfortunately, that is not my call. That is the way the U.S. Government does things, and I don't think they are going to change for me. :rolleyes:
Didn't I answer that 37 minutes ago? :confused:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I suspect what you are reading is negative expectation betting management. Better known as "betting systems". All operate under the mathematically false assumption that betting patterns can overcome a negative expectation game. IT CAN NOT!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
If you were to read positive expectation betting management, there is one singular accepted principal. Betting in proportion to your advantage. Better know as Kelly. Kelly is optimal for bankroll growth, but comes with too high of a risk of ruin for professional players, so most play some fraction of Kelly, which generates a RoR of less than 1% (0 for all practical purposes).
I understand that you must keep year-to-date records for tax purposes, but what's the point of resetting the bankroll on any particular date?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Actually I was reading about Kelly and the fractional Kelly systems and 10% is the figure recommended when a player has an edge.
As I said, if you have a bankroll of more than 80,000 and you said it's $100,000 then carry on.
You don't have to prove it to me.
My guess is that he's not interested in moving up in stakes.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyI understand that you must keep year-to-date records for tax purposes, but what's the point of resetting the bankroll on any particular date?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Probably for bet resizing.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I don't have an answer for that. :confused: That is just the way I do it. :rolleyes: I am sure others do it differently.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyI understand that you must keep year-to-date records for tax purposes, but what's the point of resetting the bankroll on any particular date?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
And this is an interesting point, because I always felt there are a million books that teach you the basics of card counting, but none, or very, very few that really get into top money management concepts. I have sort of figured out my own path on that part, with some help from various forum members. Like I said, I am sure others do it differently. Do you have different suggestions? If so, I will be happy to read them after work. :) Gotta jet!
Fat belly, I told you I don't waste my time answering questions from someone who has trolled the hell out of me. So stay in the dark and eat batshit.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
What are the minimum number of trials for the earn to be realized?
When does the math kick in?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Why is a calendar year considered long term, vs any other length of time? What does the calendar have to do with results?Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
In other words...you can't answer because you don't know the answer, but you are not man enough to admit that.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmFat belly, I told you I don't waste my time answering questions from someone who has trolled the hell out of me. So stay in the dark and eat batshit.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
You can't answer Alan's question either.
You've pulled this chicken-shit move before...answering everything like a know-it-all until you don't know the answer, then you say you can't be bothered.
Arrested development...you may be an old man, but you act like a child...you spineless earthwormm.
Depends on the game, edge size, variance and others. Read up on N0 (N zero).
http://www.dictionaryofgambling.com/...s/blackjack/n/
I give Alan credit for one thing. For the most part he has brought a group together who seldom agrees on anything. Amazing what common sense and math can do!
Besides "others" aren't all of those values known with respect to Blackjack?Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
We know that volume cannot be negative. Under what circumstances can the recurring sum of net edge be negative?Quote:
With positive expectation gamblers the recurring sum of net edge times volume equals the earn.
Yes, everybody loves a clown.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
I accept what kewlj is doing because it appears he can afford it.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Boz
But what common sense is there in losing $8800?
And the math says when you lose $8800 it's lost and that's five days of work down the drain.