If you have been crushed on +EV plays many times, then how does this formula apply to what you do?
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Other times you absolutely crush the casino. Sometimes you win, sometimes lose. Sometimes win big, or lose big. Or sometimes just about break even. Overall, the wins outweigh the losses.
If you're getting paid 1.1:1 on an even coin flip, sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose. Sometimes it'll be a big win or a big loss. Unless you're mentally retarded, you can figure out in the end, you'll be making money.
Rob, with your pull, could you talk a casino into putting in some $5 11/5 Bonus Poker. You can guarantee them that the bank will get tremendous action everyday. The bank will probably be full of players 24 hours a day. And you can take full credit with the casino for bringing them all that action....and all the money they have a chance to win. Think about it, Rob. It would be a big feather in your cap. LOL!
I once had dinner with some execs at Caesars. I couldn't convince them to change their 7/5 Bonus games to 8/5 with the argument that their 7/5 machines were idle.
One of the main problems I have with Rob is that he has studiously avoided saying if or when his strategies fail. Five thousand posts, and you can't pull it out of him.
As a counterpoint, I can state unequivocally that I would cease betting straight plays on sports if one had to lay 6/5 as opposed to 11/10 (or 108/100, which is the bulk of my plays). The difference in those ratios basically eliminates any edge I have.
Rob will never say at what point he will fail. He claims to win no matter what, which is just absurd. He knows it's absurd. That's why he doesn't ever address it.
Rob has mentioned going thru his allotted trip bankroll at least once. Wasn't it something like $17,800? But failure of his system is a word he has never used.
Do APs ever mention failure? It seems they only discuss the advantage they have on each bet they make.
I don't consider myself an "AP," Alan, but I take a fair beating about once every seven years. That's no secret. My results were published publicly in the 80's and 90's. Plus there are a fair number of seasons in my 40 years that are marginal either way.
I've known one sports gambler, recently deceased, who never had a losing year. But what he was doing wasn't really gambling in any normal sense. He was a middles-hunting, 24/7, all-sport virtuoso. He had international arbitrage software before most people had the internet.
Actually redeitz, you are not part of the AP/VP argument. Sports betting is literally in a league of its own.
I still think Rob won the money he said he won, and I doubt that the so-called APs who play video poker have any kind of wins which rival Rob's.
That doesn't mean that Rob's system is valid. I think he got damn lucky doing what he does. But luck is a big part of video poker. Because, as I've said before, you might know the "100% correct strategy" but if the RNG doesn't give you the card(s) you need the strategy doesn't work.
The casinos have a big edge at roulette. But they have days where the roulette wheel loses them money. Some days they get crushed. But they keep the wheel up and running. If you look at their results over a reasonable period of time you will see that the wheel makes them good money. An AP works edges just like the casinos do. Some days we take it in the shorts. Other days we win. The money gets thrown back and forth. And over time a little bit more of that money lands and stays on my side than it does theirs.
How much time is required before the positive expectation results in an actual profit?
Is this for an individual play of some sort...where positive expectation only exists for a defined period of time?
For instance....a session on one of the pre-soaked machines that you spin off until the edge is gone?
If the net edge is positive, what volume of play exists such that the earn is negative?...where the player loses on the play?
There are a myriad of examples. It depends on the type of game it is, how big the edge is, and how the game is configured. In video poker, most of the edges to be found are pretty thin. We're generally talking less than 4%. Depending on whether its a progressive or flattop, and what type of game it is, Jacks or Better, Bonus Poker, Double Bonus, etc., we're talking royal odds between 33,000 to 48,000, depending on the strategy used. My cruising speed is 1000 HPH. So unless I run extremely lucky we're talking a lot of hours for the edge to manifest itself. That is, if all the edge is in making the royal.
The question is a bit vague.
Do you mean how long until you should be in the profit? On a game like FPDW, you are always earning EV playing it through and through. There is no promotion or "waiting period" before you get your EV.
Most promotions, you have to wait some amount of time before the part that makes it +EV comes in. For example, I played a $100 loss rebate where you get back half the losses the same day and the other half the next day. Not that it's really worth anything, but if a team played it (say 4 people), they should be in the profit by day #2.
Sometimes you have to wait a few months before you get your money back.
If your question is about how long until you can guarantee a profit....well, there's never any guarantees. But if you want to determine the probability of being ahead after X amount of time (or # of rounds), one way is to use N0. One N0 = EV. So after N0 # of rounds, being down 1 standard deviation means you're exactly breaking even. If you've played 3x N0, then being down 3 SD's means you're breaking even. At this point, you are essentially guaranteed profit.
It depends on the play. If it's something like "do $10k coin in and get $500 in cash (on a 99% machine)", then playing to $10k will net $400 in EV. Playing to $50k on the machine would result in $0 in EV. You only have the advantage for the first $10k coin in. If, for whatever reason, you continue to play, anything after that is -EV, even though the sum could still be +EV. IE: You play to $20k coin in, your EV is +$300.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
If I was offered that promotion, I'd play it to $10k coin in, collect my $500, and continue on to somewhere else. If they offered that non-stop and I could keep getting $500 for every $10k I played....then I would continue to play that as long as I could. In the second scenario (unlimited $500 for $10k coin in), no amount of play above $10k coin in results in the play being negative.
No. The same plays are not always available (okay, FPDW is still available, but eventually it won't). Sometimes an old play dies, other times a new play shows up.
The formula doesn't change because you lost or won in the past. How does the probability of a quarter being flipped (heads or tails) change based on the last one landing on tails? Hint: It doesn't.
So your formula to calculate the earn would not apply to a play for a progressive royal, since less volume would result in a higher earn, rather than this scenario...
Assuming that your play for a progressive royal carries a positive expectation, if someone else (not you) hits the royal, then you have lost on a +EV play.
Is that correct?
I had no idea Mickey was so fast. He said his cruising speed at Video Poker is 1,000 hands per hour. That's less than 4 seconds per hand. Damn that's fast.
I'm trying to understand how mickey's formula applies to an individual play...such as your example above.
If the earn is the product of the player's edge and play volume, then what volume of play exists such that the earn will be negative?
Also, for a play that has a defined period, then how does this apply?
Alan, 1000 HPH is really not that fast. I call it "cruising speed" because I'm not pushing it. If I try to play faster-I can-I become mistake prone. If you wear a wrist watch then count yourself down for 1 minute then multiply it by 60. You will probably find that you are faster than you think you are.
No. The one constant of AP play is everything changes. You have to continually monitor everything that's going on. When I was in Nevada, Laughlin was my home base. I had full RFB in Laughlin for 362 days out of the year. I had a mail box in the post office at the Riverside. I belonged to every slot club in the state. I received mail offers from the Nevada casinos on a monthly basis, that included comped rooms, cash vouchers, promotions, events, etc. I had regular things to do in Laughlin like vulturing accumulator slots, playing advantage video poker, playing live poker. But when I got a good offer through the mail I took it.
Sure. But its not the end of the story. If you are a lone wolf like I was then you are a big dog to be the one who hits the royal. But the money I won on the small percentage of progressive plays where I was the one that hit the royal well outran the money I lost on the bulk of plays where someone else hit the royal.
Yes, its possible....but not probable if you have a large enough sample space. I'm not as boned up on this type of math as RS is but he once posted that the probability that it will take you two cycles to hit a royal is 1 in 7, three cycles 1 in 20, four cycles 1 in 55. My personal record is 5.5 cycles between royals. The flip side is twice in my career I've hit 3 royals within four hours of play. I've played multi-millions of hands of video poker. I've seen the extreme from both sides.
But we are talking about the +EV play, where the progressive royal pays enough for the player to have a mathematical edge.
You can hit a royal within the cycle, but it must be a progressive royal that pays enough to make the play +EV, otherwise you are playing a -EV game...correct?
If the bank of machines feeding the progressive is full with players in every seat, is each player playing at +EV until the royal hits?
This is where nonsensical long term theory gets thrown in. Every player likes to claim they're all playing at an "advantage" in such a situation, yet the only one who actually wins any money is the one who hits the royal. And what are the other players left with besides a whole stack of phantom bucks? You....they make believe that it'll be they who hit the next "+EV" progressive, which is a perfect example why the term "AP" is nothing more than a confidence-building state of mind. Frank Kneeland didn't play progressives with his own money because he didn't have any. A perfect example.
I've stopped at two of these bars mickey claims to clobber and 1000 HPH is totally unrealistic on the type of machines they have. The more rope you guys give him, the higher up he hangs himself from. Next thing he'll be claiming is 2000 HPH on keno machines :)
Mickey tell us more about your stuffed mailbox full of free play offers? Just how much are they? The routine offers I get are $250 once a month. Sometimes I get an offer for $500. I mention this because neither offer makes economic sense. But having the offer supplement a trip for fun is wonderful.
I want to know how much of a free play offer makes economic sense to you, an AP? Please be specific. I want to work out the math including the cost of travel and other expenditures and THE FREQUENCY that you get these offers.
I've already answered your questions. It seems to me you may have failed elementary math.
Which 2 or more positive numbers, when added or multiplied by each other, result in a negative number?
I'll give you two hints:
1) This is the same question you're asking me.
2) No such numbers exist.
Lol, I'm no AP. Far from it. Like you I'm a recreational player. You're right... walking out of the casino with money IS a wonderful feeling. That's my hope any time I go to a casino as well.
In fact, "quitting while ahead", "pausing while ahead", "win goals and loss limits" are great if it limits your time at a -EV game, if you are prone to "tilt" or "steam", if you've had to much to drink celebrating the win, if you're tired and prone to mistakes or if you've just plain had enough "fun" for that session.
BUT, as you said the RISK to your bankroll is the SAME each time you play, so "win goals and loss limits" and any other "money management systems" are not viable "strategies" to use on any -EV game (be it VP, Craps, Roulette or Three Card Poker) to build your net worth despite what some charlatans/scam artists may say.
Again, how much money are you ahead lifetime at gambling????? That's right....you're IN THE HOLE!!! You haven't walked out with ANY MONEY!!! Just getting returned a tiny portion of what you already had.
Alan, you're BEST BET is to just leave your money in the bank to earn interest. Stay out of the casino!! You haven't a clue!!
jbjb you're absolutely right. I am in the hole with casino gambling. We agree.
Alan, when you say this it becomes evident you are used to having a certain bankroll each of your sessions and that you are wagering way too much per bet for that bankroll.
And really, when was the last time you played tens of thousands of hands on a positive expectation game? The math can be figured out regarding risk of ruin for virtually any game. The AP's know what they're doing. Some of the scenarios mickey describes are as likely to result in his ruin as your stepping outside tomorrow will result in you being hit by lightning. You still step outside.
I think I've figured it out. Alan uses "Alternative Figures"
Of course the number doesn't exist...it was a rhetorical question.
mickey's formula states that the earn equals the product of the edge and volume.
If the edge and volume are both positive, then how can the earn be negative?
If the formula applies, then how can the player lose on a +EV play?
I used to enjoy the royal races at the Cal-Neva in Reno. I played in about 40 of them and came up with the royal 3 times. There were three sets of quarter progressive bartops at the Cal-Neva, one in the Virginian Lounge, one in the keno lounge, and one in the skywalk, that had multi-games, all on the same progressive meter. There were sucker games that only had a 96% or 97% base pay, but 9/6 Jacks was also available. The meters ran at 1.5% in the Virginian and keno lounge, and 2% in the skywalk.
The key number was $2300. That's when Winston's team came in. But Winston was smart enough to know not to lock up the whole bank. He would only take half the machines. The rest were filled by independent agents like me. So you had ten guys pounding away at 1000 HPH, all using an aggressive royal strategy that produced a royal about every 33,000 games. The average time it took for the royal to show was about 3.3 hours.
9/6 Jacks with a $2300 royal is a 102.6% play. Throw the meter in and depending on which bartops we were on and it was either a 104.1% edge or a 104.6% edge. My expectation was to play 3300 games at a $1.25 bet. That's $4125 in action. The royal represented 5.5% of the payback. So I would be taking a 3% drop between royals. The average cost to me if I didn't hit the royal was $124.
So we are not talking about being a big time loser if I'm not the one that hits the royal.
Alan, for nine years now I live in Montana. I work the machines here. There is no comp here. They are just little 20 machine slot parlors. There are 1700 of them in this state. Nine years ago I found enough here that I decided to stay and work it. I pay my whole freight here but its lucrative enough I don't need any comp. But there was a time, when Laughlin, Nevada was my home base that I worked the hell out of the casino mail. I worked it to the point I that I had no bills. Its a long story and probably deserves its own thread.
Rob is really showing his ignorance here. So, Rob, you actually stopped into two joints when you were here? I guarantee you there were advantage plays in those two bars. But you didn't find them, did you? That's because you are not a true AP, Rob. You are a one trick pony that uses a marty on video poker. How about a $10,000 wager on whether I can get out 1000 HPH on one of these machines here, Rob? Are you up for it. Or are you going to run and hide again?
All the video poker games here are auto-hold. The auto-hold doesn't put out perfect strategy. You have to touch the screen to change the hold. But on the games I play I only have to change the hold 1 out of 8 games. There are speed controls on the game from slow to turbo. Only the uncoordinated like Rob can't get out 1000 HPH.
The equipment here is as modern as it gets. I have one keno play that's a 5-spot progressive. The frequency of the solid five is 1551. You can either tap the button or use the screen sensor to play the game. And when using the screen sensor you don't even have to move your hand. You just lay your finger on the screen sensor and the game keeps playing. On turbo speed it plays at 40 games per minute. The average seat time on the play is 39 minutes. (1551/40). I usually have my windows phone out on these plays reading about Rob Singer martying negative expectation video poker games and LMAO! Sometimes I even take a nap. The bell ringing when I hit the solid five wakes me up.
mickey, that's why you post all over the internet about "winning 6 figures a year" in Montana of all places. You know nobody's gonna ever meet you in such a location, so you can make up anything you think you can get away with from behind your keyboard. Even Dancer turned down your invite. You readily admit to leading a binge-drinking slug life, yet to you it's real to pretend how great that is.
You missed the boat to a real life long ago. And you've been caught in your virtual life of today.
If you have all positives in an equation, you can't have a negative. Variance that is not included in the equation has no bearing. Since Mickey didnt have variance in his equation, and since all of the elements in the equation were positive, he could only have positive results.
$10,000 bet, bag of shit. You told everyone it's not possible on a machine in Montana. You are about one big LYING BAG OF SHIT! Put it up bitch! A $10,000 bet on whether I can crank out 1000 HPH on a Montana machine. No one is going to stop you from being a bag of shit troll, Rob. But if you want to deal with me then you are going to have to put your money where your big dumb stupid ignorant morally corrupt bankrupt dumfuck skinny little ass is in a bind.
Let's make a bet, Rob. Lets git it on.
Rob Argentino is a flyweight piece of shit. He cant even beat the flies off his ass.
I'm after information, that's why I am asking questions.
You are not obligated to waste time answering my questions, you are doing so voluntarily.
Your initiative...not mine...was to interject by answering a question I directed to jbjb...not you.
So far you've been cherry-picking your way through my inquisition, you only seem comfortable answering the rhetorical questions.
That's a manifestation of you being one of those obtuse WOV geeks that they talk about on GF.
My latest question that you did not answer was,
does the impact of variance mean that the player will lose?
That's wonderful for all of you APs and full time gamblers. But for the rest of us who need to be where cell phones work, and have jobs and families to take care of, and are worried about health care and insurance and pensions... what does this mean to me (us)?
I'm not sure how the AP's will answer this, but I'd say, "Don't play." It's not rocket science.
I don't see why this is hard. College football is finished. If somebody asks me why I don't bet college basketball, it's easy to answer "because I probably won't win." There's no trick to it.
If Boyd dropped all of their senior days and bonuses, I wouldn't play video poker there, and that's at least 75% of my video poker play. If they don't allow you to win, just stop.
I think the APs shouldn't be playing. I never heard of a casino offering comps such as a pension, health insurance, or vacation to players.
The rest of us go to casinos to have fun. And if we get lucky it's even more fun.
Yep -- "Losing is fun."
Great tagline.
But wait...
If the +EV player will lose sometimes, and the loss is due to variance, then the impact of variance is that the player will lose.
Isn't that a correct summary of the quotes above?
About a "session"...
I've read on here that there is no such thing as a series of sessions...it's all one session...with pauses.
What constitutes a session, when used in this context?
Of course Grosjean's gonna come up with a rap like that! Failed gamblers who just can't let go are prone to talking about how "successful" they are in places no true gambler would ever go to. It behooves them to create a perception about themselves which gets projected out to others, in order to create and maintain some sort of fantasy.
By the same type of token, take notice of what the two wayward ex-wov'ers--jbjb & RS__--try to pass off about themselves right here, as "winning AP's" who just can't explain or identify any of these supposed "+10% EV plays" that they "hammer to death".
Unfortunately for these and others like them, common sense always wins out.
Those quotes are out of context.
Variance doesn't mean you will lose, but the more sessions you play, the more likely you are to have a losing session, where a session is defined as a short period of play.
You're trying to make the argument that because variance exists, you will end up a net loser. That's not how it works.
I'm not trying to make an argument, I'm gathering information.
I quoted what you wrote...that the player will lose sometimes, and the player loses because of variance.
What context were these quotes made within such that they would not apply?
Unless the period of play is defined, how is it possible to know when play has ended?
You've defined a session as an undefined period of play. What constitutes a short period?
I'll give you a hint:
the answer will be a numerical representation of time
Don't forget there are no sessions---just pauses for however long.
And a typical playing session will vary. Sometimes it's a few minutes, sometimes it's a few hours, and even sometimes all day.
Yes, in general a player will win some sessions and lose others. This isn't "new" by any means. I'm not speaking in general -- I'm sure there are some people that have won every session and others who've lost every session.
You misinterpreted the quotes into thinking when I say "sometimes you win, sometimes you lose" to mean everyone will sometimes win and sometimes lose.
You're asking stupid questions and trying to get me to say 2 different things at the same time. I don't care much for this. If you have actual & legitimate questions, go ahead. But please, enough with the stupid shit.
Rob, here's what a 14% edge looks like:
http://www.imgur.com/XWZYA7e
This game is called Jackpot Aces. You won't find the game on the Wizard of Odds site. I'm the only person that exploits this play. It's just a 50 cent bet but with a 14% edge so worth $70 an hour. Whereas 9 years ago I had a couple of dozen machines with this payscale on it I'm down to just two machines now. This game cannot be fully analyzed by any software on the market. I had to do all of that myself. That's the difference between you and I, Rob. I know how to do it and you don't. As a matter of fact, if you were to have punched this game up on a machine you would not have even identified it as possibly being a positive expectation game.
Have you noticed the recurring problem yet? Have you? Those other two guys won't identify anything likely because they troll the subject, and all you ever do is bring up stuff that is unverifiable and can't be played by anyone who lives in civilization. And at the same time you're claiming the state is smart enuf to take these things out, but stupid enuf to leave a couple machines in. Makes no sense.
Rob, the glitch in the game is the Full House with 3 Aces meter. It's supposed to start at $10 instead of $100. As I said, I found the glitch on a couple dozen machines about 9 years ago. They have slowly fixed them all, except the two I have left. RS operates in Las Vegas. He is not about to expose the location of his plays online so other AP's can jump on them. But I think I seen a picture RS posted of a $12,800 royal on a dollar 8/6 Jacks. The royal is not what impressed me. The game was at 103.7% when he hit the royal. Throw in the meter speed, my guess is the meter is at 1%+, and it's a super strong play.
If that moron thinks I'm going to expose where all of our weak dealers and strong plays are, he and anyone else is sadly mistaken!! He can make all the excuses he wants of "unverified claims" all he wants. The only thing "unverified" is the bullshit he spews. He's a jealous loser and damn well knows it.
We've got stuff even that asshole Eliot Jacobson does NOT know about.