Is Sports Betting AP Play?

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Originally Posted by jbjb

For the record, I'm anti-all religions.

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Perhaps, God is the one thing we cannot prove and understand, or control and influence. In this sense, it comes down to can we ever prove and understand or not every thing. If we can, then there is no God.

I guess the AP's think that every thing can be rigged, so there is no God. Instead, I equate God to the absolute, and Devil to (sheer) uncertainty, neither of which can be attained. Stuff we "bow" to whether we know it or not. And, as these things are a part of the universe, we can't outsmart or rig it. Not to say that the universe can't or won't spit out great clues here and there, but that is entirely up to it.

What I said has nothing to do with AP.

Like jbjb, I am anti-religion, but I believe in God! I think religions exploit belief in God for monetary purposes. I don't need to go to church to have a good relationship with God. I talk to him everyday. :)

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Religion and prayer are important. People pray in churches and synagogues and in mosques, but when they pray in casinos they really mean it.

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That joke is so old, hoe many times have you told it now? Perhaps it wasn't you.

I'm amazed the dealers still talk about your craps wedding, yet they say nothing about a once in a billion year's event.

I'm surprised that neither of the two guys or any dealers have found their way to any gambling forums.

Even the most unmathimatical gambler or dealer would start to realize just how absurdly next to impossible that event might be. A simple Google search and they would find their way to WOV.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

I believe in God! ... I talk to him everyday. :)

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KJ, I have a question, and I ask it not to flame or irk, just out of curiosity.

The god you talk to: is he gay?

What does he look like, dress like, sound like?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Religion and prayer are important. People pray in churches and synagogues and in mosques, but when they pray in casinos they really mean it.

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That joke is so old, hoe many times have you told it now? Perhaps it wasn't you.

I'm amazed the dealers still talk about your craps wedding, yet they say nothing about a once in a billion year's event.

I'm surprised that neither of the two guys or any dealers have found their way to any gambling forums.

Even the most unmathimatical gambler or dealer would start to realize just how absurdly next to impossible that event might be. A simple Google search and they would find their way to WOV.

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Like I said before Axel, no one ever reported the four hour roll at Caesars Palace either. No one talks about it either. But that also happened. It appears only you APs make a big deal over things that mean little to the rest of the world.

Heck had I known that guy throwing 18 yos in a row was so significant I would have gotten the tape immediately. But frankly it was just 18 yos in a row and not the Second Coming.

Maybe you APs and math people should get a life? Then you'd appreciate what's really important.

Some guy throwing 18 yos in a row isn't.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

KJ, I have a question, and I ask it not to flame or irk, just out of curiosity.

The god you talk to: is he gay?

What does he look like, dress like, sound like?

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Yeah, it doesn't sound like you are trying to flame or irk me, Mr v. :rolleyes:

It's not like that. It's not like I am having a conversation with Morgan Freeman, or George Burns. I talk. God listens. That is what faith is. I give a lot of thanks for the great life that I have. And I make some requests and suggestions. Some times he grants them, sometimes he doesn't. But overall, I have no complaints. :)

As for being gay, God doesn't care about anything like that. All that stuff in the bible is just someone's interpretation of things. God only cares about people loving one another and treating others kindly and with respect. All that kind of crap that divides people, is all man made.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by MisterV

KJ, I have a question, and I ask it not to flame or irk, just out of curiosity.

The god you talk to: is he gay?

What does he look like, dress like, sound like?

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Yeah, it doesn't sound like you are trying to flame or irk me, Mr v. :rolleyes:

It's not like that. It's not like I am having a conversation with Morgan Freeman, or George Burns. I talk. God listens. That is what faith is. I give a lot of thanks for the great life that I have. And I make some requests and suggestions. Some times he grants them, sometimes he doesn't. But overall, I have no complaints. :)

As for being gay, God doesn't care about anything like that. All that stuff in the bible is just someone's interpretation of things. God only cares about people loving one another and treating others kindly and with respect. All that kind of crap that divides people, is all man made.

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We all see God the way we want to.

OK, thanks KJ for clarifying that you talk to god but god doesn't talk back.

I misinterpreted your comment to imply you had god standing in front of you, and the two of you were conversing.

Were that the case, you'd have been able to observe god and determine his/hers/its sexual proclivities.

My bad.

You were just praying.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Religion and prayer are important. People pray in churches and synagogues and in mosques, but when they pray in casinos they really mean it.

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There are no atheists in foxholes either.

Blaise Pascal was the founder of the branch of mathematics known as probability theory. He was also religious. He argued that "a rational person should live their life as if God exists. If God does not actually exist such a person will have only finite losses, some pleasures, luxuries. Whereas, if He does exist, they stand to receive infinite gains, Heaven, and avoid infinite losses, Hell."

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Religion and prayer are important. People pray in churches and synagogues and in mosques, but when they pray in casinos they really mean it.

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That joke is so old, hoe many times have you told it now? Perhaps it wasn't you.

I'm amazed the dealers still talk about your craps wedding, yet they say nothing about a once in a billion year's event.

I'm surprised that neither of the two guys or any dealers have found their way to any gambling forums.

Even the most unmathimatical gambler or dealer would start to realize just how absurdly next to impossible that event might be. A simple Google search and they would find their way to WOV.

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Axe-you probably won't believe this but Alan told that joke 18 times in a row.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Blaise Pascal was the founder of the branch of mathematics known as probability theory. He was also religious. He argued that "a rational person should live their life as if God exists. If God does not actually exist such a person will have only finite losses, some pleasures, luxuries. Whereas, if He does exist, they stand to receive infinite gains, Heaven, and avoid infinite losses, Hell."

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It's better to be wrong (to think there is a God) and alive than right (to think there is no God) and dead.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

OK, thanks KJ for clarifying that you talk to god but god doesn't talk back.

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God speaks by not speaking. The one voice that can't be shut out.

"Maybe you APs and math people should get a life. Then you'd appreciate what's really important." [I]Alan Mendelson[I]


Mr. Mendelson is going to give a series of presentations on what's really important in life. They will, of course, be sponsored by the highest bidders on Alan's Best Buys show. The first, "How to Apply Stop/Loss and Win Goal Principles to Marriages" is being sponsored by the American Academy of Matrimonial Lawyers.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by MisterV

OK, thanks KJ for clarifying that you talk to god but god doesn't talk back.

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God speaks by not speaking. The one voice that can't be shut out.

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Thems some strong drugs you're on!

This AP talk about expected value is nothing more than an adaptation of The Greater Fool Theory that is taught in economics. Keep that in mind.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This AP talk about expected value is nothing more than an adaptation of The Greater Fool Theory that is taught in economics.

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Alan, could you tell us one more time, that you are NOT anti-AP? :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This AP talk about expected value is nothing more than an adaptation of The Greater Fool Theory that is taught in economics. Keep that in mind.

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I make money casinos because of POSITIVE EV.

Would you like to tell us how much money you've LOST in your career from NEGATIVE EV?? I'm certain it's over 7 figures!

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by MisterV

OK, thanks KJ for clarifying that you talk to god but god doesn't talk back.

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God speaks by not speaking. The one voice that can't be shut out.

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Thems some strong drugs you're on!

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No, not necessarily. When we receive absolutely no response, then we are talking to ourselves. Speaking but not speaking. God could be the facility or capacity to thus comfort, etc, ourselves. Just one possible interpretation.

If you invest money on some piece of furniture on which to throw dice or on a fancy pinball machine, and you realize the investment will be returned to you manifold because greater fools can be convinced it's "recreation" or "classy entertainment" and not a piece of furniture or a pinball game, seems to me The Greater Fool Theory is in effect for casinos vis-a-vis non-APs.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

This AP talk about expected value is nothing more than an adaptation of The Greater Fool Theory that is taught in economics. Keep that in mind.

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I make money casinos because of POSITIVE EV.

Would you like to tell us how much money you've LOST in your career from NEGATIVE EV?? I'm certain it's over 7 figures!

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The crickets are deafening...

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Originally Posted by jbjb

Would you like to tell us how much money you've LOST in your career from NEGATIVE EV?? I'm certain it's over 7 figures!

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I'm not alan, but I've kept detailed records of my gambling wins and losses since 2003; currently I am down $45,386.00.

Averaged out over 14 years, that's an average of $3241 per year, or $270 per month.

A price well worth paying for the pleasure / stimulation gambling has provided me.

Being an AP would simply involve too much "work," it would remove the "fun" component from gambling, at least I think it would for me: relying solely on gambling income could make for anxious moments, especially during a bad losing streak.

Life is short; work hard, gamble hard, but whatever you do keep yourself in check and under control.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

I'm not alan, but I've kept detailed records of my gambling wins and losses since 2003; currently I am down $45,386.00.

Averaged out over 14 years, that's an average of $3241 per year, or $270 per month.

A price well worth paying for the pleasure / stimulation gambling has provided me.

Being an AP would simply involve too much "work," it would remove the "fun" component from gambling, at least I think it would for me: relying solely on gambling income could make for anxious moments, especially during a bad losing streak.

Life is short; work hard, gamble hard, but whatever you do keep yourself in check and under control.

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Sounds more like a drowning swan song than a dynamic or passionate report of something one has been involved with since 2003.

Organized gambling is dying a rather fast and quiet death. One is left to wonder what role the internet played. Before the internet, though, the "rich and famous" had already lost interest. Perhaps, because the casinos catered more to the the modern industrialized masses by "dumbing down" and "franchising" themselves.

No one has to be an AP to develop a sentient sense of gambling; nor an SP to seriously toy around with the impossible, and hang out on the gambling forums. So much to observe, and, yes, learn and apply to other areas of interest. Especially, how seemingly otherwise-intelligent people become so wrapped up in hanging out at casinos, and then talking about it. Hey, if you can't earn a decent wage at a decent hour, then don't waste your "short life" there. And, if you can, then find something in the real world. By all means, go check it out. Have your "fun", and then get the heck out. See how far the human race will go to fleece itself.

Life isn't short when lived well. It's enough. Sometimes, the better paths lead nowhere, and the lesser ones to victory. But some paths are just non-starters. Don't dig deeper on a non-starter. You might begin to convince yourself it's a winner.

Gambling has been around since civilization arose, and probably earlier than that.

Is it some form of instinct, hard-wired into us over the years, to seek out and revel in risks?

Without taking great risks civilizations cannot expand and flourish; is it somewhat of an imperative in all civilizations for its members to gamble, to risk it all on the chance of a big win?

The Portugese, Spanish and English explorers risked life, limb and fortune on a chance to pull a big prize out of the unknown.

People who start a new business are gambling that it will succeed.

Lovers who commit to each other gamble that it will last.

It's fine for cynics to question the value of gambling; It's been said that an unexamined life is not worth living.

Ain't no big thing: it just is what it is.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by jbjb

Would you like to tell us how much money you've LOST in your career from NEGATIVE EV?? I'm certain it's over 7 figures!

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I'm not alan, but I've kept detailed records of my gambling wins and losses since 2003; currently I am down $45,386.00.

Averaged out over 14 years, that's an average of $3241 per year, or $270 per month.

A price well worth paying for the pleasure / stimulation gambling has provided me.

Being an AP would simply involve too much "work," it would remove the "fun" component from gambling, at least I think it would for me: relying solely on gambling income could make for anxious moments, especially during a bad losing streak.

Life is short; work hard, gamble hard, but whatever you do keep yourself in check and under control.

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Eh, for me and I assume most APs, it's the opposite. I don't want to play a game where I'm practically guaranteed to lose, or in better words: a game where I'm not expected to win.

I'm not going to play a sport or a video game where I'm already behind going into it. If I can practice and get better so I have a greater chance to win, then I'll play. Playing a losing game isn't much fun, IMO.

The thrill of gambling is that you have a chance to win, right? Well, if you do the math, it's easy to see the more you play (a -EV game), the more likely you are to be behind. That's not really something I'd want to do. If I'm a chess player and I study & practice, then the more I play, the better I'll get. With gambling (in -EV games) it's the exact opposite.


I don't have a problem with people who gamble recreationally, just don't pretend to know what you're talking about when all you do is spit out horseshit (ie: Alan & Stringer). I know that most people who gamble do it for entertainment, which I kinda agree with, as long as it's not very often (since the more you gambler -> less likely to win). But gambling every week doesn't sound all that entertaining to me; every few months, sure.

Unfortunately for you very wise gamblers who believe you have an edge and bet accordingly, you are following the Greater Fool Theory of economics... just as investors in rare coins, stamps, art and even bitcoin follow the Greater Fool Theory.

You are taking your real dollars and putting them on a table or into a slot figuring you will profit. While at the same time someone (a casino) is offering that opportunity to you because it thinks you will lose. The Greater Fool takes the bet.

It is the same, for example, with art. There is a buyer who will give up his real dollars for a chance at,a profit while the seller is looking for a Greater Fool to relieve him of his risk.

Not all fools lose, however. Some profit in numismatics or art or philately.

But unlike the investor in art, coins and stamps, the gambler is the last rung on the ladder and there is no other fool to relieve him of his burden UNLESS he sells shares in his action mucH like some poker players do.

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Originally Posted by redietz

If you invest money on some piece of furniture on which to throw dice or on a fancy pinball machine, and you realize the investment will be returned to you manifold because greater fools can be convinced it's "recreation" or "classy entertainment" and not a piece of furniture or a pinball game, seems to me The Greater Fool Theory is in effect for casinos vis-a-vis non-APs.

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Instead of making things up, why don't you read what the Greater Fool Theory is?

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Gambling has been around since civilization arose, and probably earlier than that.

Is it some form of instinct, hard-wired into us over the years, to seek out and revel in risks?

Without taking great risks civilizations cannot expand and flourish; is it somewhat of an imperative in all civilizations for its members to gamble, to risk it all on the chance of a big win?

The Portugese, Spanish and English explorers risked life, limb and fortune on a chance to pull a big prize out of the unknown.

People who start a new business are gambling that it will succeed.

Lovers who commit to each other gamble that it will last.

It's fine for cynics to question the value of gambling; It's been said that an unexamined life is not worth living.

Ain't no big thing: it just is what it is.

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Yes, without some form of offence, and with only defence, it's impossible to just survive.

The Wizard put out a new sort of gambling forum, but ended up circling the wagons. His way or the highway. All hail the Wizard at all cost. People left. The world's greatest gambler who doesn't actually gamble, not even on free speech.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by redietz

If you invest money on some piece of furniture on which to throw dice or on a fancy pinball machine, and you realize the investment will be returned to you manifold because greater fools can be convinced it's "recreation" or "classy entertainment" and not a piece of furniture or a pinball game, seems to me The Greater Fool Theory is in effect for casinos vis-a-vis non-APs.

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Instead of making things up, why don't you read what the Greater Fool Theory is?

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Good whiff. I know exactly what The Greater Fool Theory is, and it's applicable just as I wrote. Some idiot invests in furniture on which to throw dice. The only way he profits is if a greater idiot perceives the piece of furniture as recreation and the original buyer can rent out throws on his furniture to The Greater Fool.

What, some people think they're the only ones to take an economics course or buy stock. Talk about arrogance.

The Greater Fool Theory calls into question whether anything has "intrinsic value," which is a damn good topic in anthropology courses as well, because it addresses the relativity/subjectivity of non-material resources as well as the material.

Some people, for whatever reasons, want to keep jamming stock market theories and jargon into the milieu of gambling. The two milieus are completely, utterly different when it comes to casino games that are solved. The stock market is an open system with variables affecting it that are not part of the system and are not completely predictable. Most casino games are completely closed systems that have been solved. The math is evident. Stock market jargon and blather simply do not apply.

Sorry your defense sucks, redietz. That's not the Greater Fool Theory. Just google it.

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Originally Posted by redietz

Most casino games are completely closed systems that have been solved. The math is evident. Stock market jargon and blather simply do not apply.

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Maybe, the two meet somewhere down the middle. Casino stocks, eg. Or an AP's stock-in-trade in the promotional or whimsical side bets that come, and go after someone figures an advantage. These are expectations on other levels. But, sometimes, the more-closed systems are more-open. Stud poker, especially seven-card, is a harder game to master than draw poker because of the up-cards. More information means much more to process into a winning strategy in real time. (Too much left to chance there, too, though in a different way from draw poker, in which no cards are exposed, and no one really knows who has a monster hand until on the end. You don't want your opponent to have a hand too close, or far, from yours. No action if too far, and too much if too close?)

No, no thing has intrinsic value. We don't actually own any thing in the sense that it will always have our name on it. And, we all die. The unit of mass, itself, isn't so well or intuitively laid out as those of space and time. We all have our place and time, as that is what defines us. There are different spatial and temporal fields. One mile an hour is just that, one mile an hour. Whereas, one pound, or kilogram is what exactly? So many atoms of a particular type? Yes, but what gives any type of atom its mass or stuff? A stone of a given mass in our gravitational field will weigh different in an other, though it will always span the same space or distance, eg. Its mass, itself, isn't quite so differentiated.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Sorry your defense sucks, redietz. That's not the Greater Fool Theory. Just google it.

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Try again. The Greater Fool Theory doesn't apply exclusively to commodities. Google it yourself.

Why don't you bring up the package or the 18 yos? This is usually how these discussions end.

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Why don't you bring up the package or the 18 yos?

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The Wiz just did, dude: it's your legacy.

In a thread which discussed possibly allowing the damned to return, he wrote: "The chances of a pardon for all banned members is about the same as rolling 18 yo's in a row in craps."

Alan appears to be somewhat of a laughingstock on some gambling forums, the poster child for bullshitting.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

Alan appears to be somewhat of a laughingstock on some gambling forums, the poster child for bullshitting.

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A short-lived pimple on Trump's ass.


P.S. Come to think of it, Shacky is the puss.

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Originally Posted by RS__

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

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It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by RS__

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

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It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

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I supposed you think the casino doesn't add a value to a bet then either.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by RS__

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

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It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

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It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by RS__

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

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It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

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It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

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OneHit, my site(s) will not be in pursuit of coin of the realm. No advertisers (unless it's The Skeptic magazine or something like that). No forum. Just content. I'm too old and too responsible to try to recruit advertisers, and forums rarely offer anything of significant value. Have we learned nothing? I don't care about traffic. I don't care, and actually prefer, if a dozen people read the stuff. I don't care about losing (small amounts of) money. I consider it a publishing venture.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by RS__

From what I found, Greater Fool Theory is basically when you buy something and have the expectation to sell it later at an increased price, to a "greater fool".


Why Alan thinks this can be used as a knock against APs, I have no idea.

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It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

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It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

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If you want to sell gambling books then write dumb shit that sells to the masses like John Patrick does. Not a lot of money selling books on AP'ing. Too few people have the mindset for it. One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Unfortunately for you very wise gamblers who believe you have an edge and bet accordingly, you are following the Greater Fool Theory of economics... just as investors in rare coins, stamps, art and even bitcoin follow the Greater Fool Theory.

You are taking your real dollars and putting them on a table or into a slot figuring you will profit. While at the same time someone (a casino) is offering that opportunity to you because it thinks you will lose. The Greater Fool takes the bet.

It is the same, for example, with art. There is a buyer who will give up his real dollars for a chance at,a profit while the seller is looking for a Greater Fool to relieve him of his risk.

Not all fools lose, however. Some profit in numismatics or art or philately.

But unlike the investor in art, coins and stamps, the gambler is the last rung on the ladder and there is no other fool to relieve him of his burden UNLESS he sells shares in his action mucH like some poker players do.

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Alan, what is your take on the Smarter Gambler Theory?

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

It's not a knock against APs. It's an explanation of what APs are doing. They are adding a value to a bet just as the coin collector adds value to a coin.

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It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

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If you want to sell gambling books then write dumb shit that sells to the masses like John Patrick does. Not a lot of money selling books on AP'ing. Too few people have the mindset for it. One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

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I won't be selling anything, mickey. Not my schtick.

What you wrote, though, reminds me of the "paranormal" section of bookstores. Lots of books claiming all kinds of strange and non-scientific things, and about 1 in 20 debunking them. Not much of a market for being rational. Not a popular thing to be.

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Originally Posted by redietz

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

It's the same as asking what are Shacky's sites worth. Most of us would say absolutely nothing. Heck, most of us have never heard of him. But the "greater fools" chimed in at a million or two. There was a roulette forum with more than 160 daily members. And one baccarat forum with almost that many. Gosh. Shacky must have crapped his tights and did the proverbial loop on the unicycle. (Can't wait for Red to start his sites.)

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If you want to sell gambling books then write dumb shit that sells to the masses like John Patrick does. Not a lot of money selling books on AP'ing. Too few people have the mindset for it. One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

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I won't be selling anything, mickey. Not my schtick.

What you wrote, though, reminds me of the "paranormal" section of bookstores. Lots of books claiming all kinds of strange and non-scientific things, and about 1 in 20 debunking them. Not much of a market for being rational. Not a popular thing to be.

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I lost Shermer when he jumped on the global warming bandwagon. It's always about the money.

It appears that some of you took offense when I said there was a link between AP play and the Greater Fool Theory. Do not be offended if you are included in those covered by the Greater Fool Theory. Anyone who buys a home, buys art or collectibles is also lumped in there. The title "Greater Fool Theory" is not meant to insult anyone -- it's just an understanding of the mindset of consumers.

I collect coins and art, and I bought coins and art from people who wanted to sell and I bought with the idea that I would resell it at a profit someday.

There's a reason why this is only a "theory." No facts.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

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Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

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Come on, there is no need or that kind of nasty language, Onehitwonder. I am talking about the term "LarryS". I find that term completely offensive! It's the holiday season for gosh sakes. ;)

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

It appears that some of you took offense when I said there was a link between AP play and the Greater Fool Theory. Do not be offended if you are included in those covered by the Greater Fool Theory. Anyone who buys a home, buys art or collectibles is also lumped in there. The title "Greater Fool Theory" is not meant to insult anyone -- it's just an understanding of the mindset of consumers.

I collect coins and art, and I bought coins and art from people who wanted to sell and I bought with the idea that I would resell it at a profit someday.

---

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs. People collect houses, coins, paintings, even beanie babies with the expectation to sell it for a profit down the road. I don't see how this is similar to what APs do, at all.

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Originally Posted by RS__

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

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Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. :( You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

There's a reason why this is only a "theory." No facts.

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I think this has to do with the difference between knowing and understanding. Facts are what we know (for sure); whereas, theory is what we understand (in an ever-partial sense).

Here's an example blurb from the internet, "Gravity is a fact. But we don't know everything about gravity and how it works, so we have gravitational theory to explain the data we have collected over time. We are always finding out new things about gravity, and previous notions about it can be discarded or solidified. For example, there was the recent confirmations of gravitational waves. Before this, we didn't have any evidence as to whether gravity was a wave or particle or both (calculations are usually based on a wave-particle duality). We can confirm the existence of waves, and therefore validate calculations or better address specific phenomena. However, we're still not sure that gravity exists as a particle. This is all part of the theory. But we know that gravity exists."

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Originally Posted by jbjb

There's a reason why this is only a "theory." No facts.

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There are plenty of facts and plenty of research that goes into the social sciences. Can you prove hole carding? Can you prove that a dealer will flash cards on his next shift?

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by RS__

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

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Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. :( You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

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Exactly!

Just think of all of those "phantom bucks" casinos are raking in day after day with their "positive EV."

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

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Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

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I don't care for your philosophy, dude. It's all a bunch of gibberish.

[QUOTE=kewlJ;55712Come on, there is no need or that kind of nasty language, Onehitwonder. I am talking about the term "LarryS". I find that term completely offensive! It's the holiday season for gosh sakes. ;)[/QUOTE]

Anti-semitic, are you?

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by RS__

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

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Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. :( You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

---

Exactly!

Just think of all of those "phantom bucks" casinos are raking in day after day with their "positive EV."

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Casinos don't use phantom bucks. Casinos go by the math of the game.

Players, unfortunately, use more than just the math of the game. In some cases they add certain values to their play from: card counting, for example, or hole carding, or adding the value of hotel rooms, and show tickets, and yes, even the value of coffee mugs.

APs created their own "math" that goes beyond the simple math of the game and that is their "greater fool moment."

Now don't be alarmed. We all do this. When I invest in Morgan Silver dollars in mint state condition that are certified by PCGS I also add a certain value to the coins that I buy because they might have rainbow toning or might appear to be "under graded." Or, I might assign a higher value to coins from the Carson City mint which I hope will allow me to sell them at a bigger profit.

Now jbjb the question isn't about "all of those phantom bucks casinos are raking in day after day" which is what you wrote. The question is how are you sure that those hole card flashing dealers are going to flash when you are playing so that you will have the edge you think you are going to have? THAT is the greater fool theory adaptation of AP and a very specific example that applies to you.

Here's another: someone who is a DI. How does the DI know that the bounce on the table at the casino he is going to will fit his throw?

Let's take a card counter. Perhaps the blackjack card counter is having a bad day and what if his count is off? Or, suppose a cocktail waitress keeps interrupting the card counter's concentration?

APs need certain conditions to go their way. That is where their edge comes from, just as a bidder at a fine art auction needs certain conditions to go his way. That is wheat brings APs into the conditions of the Greater Fool Theory.

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

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Originally Posted by jbjb

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. :( You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

---

Exactly!

Just think of all of those "phantom bucks" casinos are raking in day after day with their "positive EV."

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Casinos don't use phantom bucks. Casinos go by the math of the game.

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This is EXACTLY what AP's do as well. If we didn't, we wouldn't play, PERIOD!! If you don't and can't understand this, there is no hope for you.

Gee, since when do you jbjb ONLY go by the math of the game? You claim an advantage from hole carding. That goes beyond the math of any game.

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

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Originally Posted by RS__

Please explain how TGF theory is applicable to APs.

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Alan is just continuing his idol's talking points. :( You know how Rob used to always talk about AP's earning "phantom bucks". That is now what Alan is doing as well. AP's use "Ev" as a measuring stick as to how well we are doing (actual win) vs expectation. Alan doesn't understand the concept of Ev. So he is equating Ev to Rob's "phantom bucks", ignoring the fact that there are real money wins associated with Ev.

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Coin collectors, art collectors, real estate investors use something similar to your EV. They look at undervalued properties and collectibles. And that what lumps everyone into the Greater Fool Theory pool.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

One guarantee I have when I walk into a casino is I will be surrounded by idiots.

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Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

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I don't care for your philosophy, dude. It's all a bunch of gibberish.

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Running around to empty glorified payphones for nickels and dimes isn't any philosophy. Kids do that, or, rather, they used to to, for a moment, "get a leg up on" an adult world.

Perhaps, as an adult, something like that morphs into "it feels good" to (think that you) "defeat" casinos because they are bad. A self projection as God, by which we create a God that has most of our own attributes. But, feelings aren't philosophies, let alone subject to a lot of control.

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Originally Posted by jbjb

I make money casinos because of POSITIVE EV.

Would you like to tell us how much money you've LOST in your career from NEGATIVE EV?? I'm certain it's over 7 figures!

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Originally Posted by jbjb

The crickets are deafening...

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Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

Wake up those crickets....

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by OneHitWonder

Mickey, you tell us all about your life here, in great detail, day after day. Do you know anything about the people you collectively call idiots? What are their lives like, and then how does it make sense or not what they do in a casino? It's the old saying - one that I passed on to LarryS, the other month - about when we are surrounded by fools the only fool is us.

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I don't care for your philosophy, dude. It's all a bunch of gibberish.

---

Running around to empty glorified payphones for nickels and dimes isn't any philosophy. Kids do that, or, rather, they used to to, for a moment, "get a leg up on" an adult world.

Perhaps, as an adult, something like that morphs into "it feels good" to (think that you) "defeat" casinos because they are bad. A self projection as God, by which we create a God that has most of our own attributes. But, feelings aren't philosophies, let alone subject to a lot of control.

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Dude, I defeat casinos to put money in the bank. I have no other reason for playing. And your philosophical bullshit reminds me of Yogi Berra. Just a lot of talk without saying anything.

Mickey, approximately what percentage of your casino earnings do you attribute to luck, including being lucky to be in one of these bars when there is a machine with a bank worthy of your play?

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

APs need certain conditions to go their way. That is where their edge comes from, just as a bidder at a fine art auction needs certain conditions to go his way. That is wheat brings APs into the conditions of the Greater Fool Theory.

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What does the hope for an opportunity to hole card or edge sort have to do with the greater fool theory?

Answer: not a god damned thing.

I think The Greatest Fool is running amuck, sprinkling pixie dust throughout the forum.

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Originally Posted by MisterV

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Come on, there is no need or that kind of nasty language, Onehitwonder. I am talking about the term "LarryS". I find that term completely offensive! It's the holiday season for gosh sakes. ;)

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Anti-semitic, are you?

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Oh stop, you fucktard. (that's a word I am borrowing rom Mickey. ;))

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

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Why so you can then attack him and demand to see tax returns, ID and blood tests?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Mickey, approximately what percentage of your casino earnings do you attribute to luck, including being lucky to be in one of these bars when there is a machine with a bank worthy of your play?

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Mickey looks for and finds those opportunities, they just don't happen to find him. Similarly, hole-carders, of which I am not one, look for and find weak dealers. Just the same, real estate prospectors look for and find real estate that is under-valued. That "search", which with casino AP activity is often called "scouting" is part of the process of locating strong opportunities.

Alan you aren't making any sense here to anyone. You are grasping at straws in your continuing effort to undermine and discredit AP's. But PLEASE, tell us again how you are not anti-AP. :rolleyes:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

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Why so you can then attack him and demand to see tax returns, ID and blood tests?

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What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

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Originally Posted by coach belly

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

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You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Dude, I defeat casinos to put money in the bank. I have no other reason for playing.

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Dude yourself. You don't defeat any casinos. Among other things, you advertise (free of charge) for them with all your repetitious talk here and who knows where about how easily you think you defeat them. Picture boy, and travel guide, no less.

Persons with no other reason for what they do for a living than a bank account - as sad as that sounds - certainly don't spend or associate so much of their time on or with the internet and gambling industry in such vainly great but useless detail. People in the real world rarely set up and attend forums to do with their jobs, and rarer still do they shout over and over again look at smart me surrounded by fools.

What if you're the fucktard punk ass bitch fool that you have been calling every one else (who doesn't immediately fall for your act) over the last decade on the internet? Could it be? Well, at least you have a bank account. Good for you, but so do the rest of us.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

In some cases they add certain values to their play from: card counting, for example, or hole carding, or adding the value of hotel rooms, and show tickets, and yes, even the value of coffee mugs.

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Who does this? I don't know of any legit AP that does this.

I can think of one single AP that I used to know online about a decade ago, that incorporated this kind of value into his earnings. But it was a unique situation. He was a high stakes player and purposely played about a break even game, so as to be welcome. He then took all the "gifts" that the casinos gave him, and I am not talking coffee mugs and tee-shirts, I am talking high end jewelry and shopping sprees including trips, and he sold these things on ebay for a significant profit. I don't even think you could get away with this approach any more as some of these benefits are now non-transferable.

Other than this one specific case, I can think of no other legit AP that incorporates this kind of thing of value as part of actual earnings. Most treat it as a bonus. I guess maybe Jean Scott talked about having an entire room in her home full of these smaller almost trinket type casino give away gifts and maybe adding in value because she used these things for Christmas gifts for friends and relatives instead of purchasing them. That is tacky! (I am glad I am not one of her relatives) :rolleyes:

In my own case, my partner and I eat at the casino almost every single day....sometimes twice a day. And there is value in that. Not the overpriced value the casino assigns, but whatever we are saving by not spending cash on our meals or more groceries to eat at home. I DO NOT figure or count this as winnings. I always count it as a extra bonus benefit.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

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You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

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Perhaps, you should give it a rest. But, carry on for the next decade if you get one.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

Mickey, approximately what percentage of your casino earnings do you attribute to luck, including being lucky to be in one of these bars when there is a machine with a bank worthy of your play?

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The only luck involved is I'm lucky enough to have the aptitude for advantage gambling. Ploppies getting up and leaving machines when they are in advantage mode is a phenomenon that has been around ever since machines have been around. There's nothing lucky about finding the plays. If I look for them I find them....multiple plays every day. The edges are big and I rarely have a losing day. Luck has nothing to do with it.

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by kewlJ

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Shouldn't jbjb be telling us how much money he's WON in his career, before asking anyone else about their losses?

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Why so you can then attack him and demand to see tax returns, ID and blood tests?

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What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

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Hey lookey, it`s the Town Cunt!

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

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You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

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I haven't followed Singer for as long as you have , but didn't he post photos of his jackpots in print and online?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson

And that what lumps everyone into the Greater Fool Theory pool.

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Player A plays a 98% game. Player B plays a 97% game. Player B is the greater fool. That's how the Greater Fool Theory applies to casino gambling.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

I haven't followed Singer for as long as you have , but didn't he post photos of his jackpots in print and online?

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Photos of jackpots prove what? :confused: Didn't Alan, talk about his son hitting 6 (higher end) royal flushes in a 24 hour period and ended up losing money over that 24 hour period?

I suspect Singer did similarly. Posted some pictures of high end jackpot wins. Guess what if you have 3 or 4 hundred thousand in Jackpot wins, but lost 5 or 6 hundred thousand dollars to get them....you are not a winning player. From now on let's just call this Singer-math. ;)

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Originally Posted by coach belly

Quote:

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Quote:

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Originally Posted by coach belly

What's the point of claiming that you've won if you're not willing to prove that you've won?

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You had a hell of a lot of time to ask Singer that question. But you never did. Perhaps you should get Alan to forward the question to him.

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I haven't followed Singer for as long as you have , but didn't he post photos of his jackpots in print and online?

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Pictures of Jackpots do not prove anything. Ask Alan about that. He's posted plenty of jackpot pictures. But he admittedly has never had a winning year.