Utah +8 on Bovada
Firing on it
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Utah +8 on Bovada
Firing on it
Bruh I really wanna follow all your picks but damn idk how to I can't be on this forum and PFA 24/7. Btw sonatine is salty. :(Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
he doesnt post picks 24 hours a day, and 90 percent of the games start between 7pm and 10 35 pm eastern time so just check in at 6:45 eastern once a day, and you will get 90 percent of his picks. There is no 24 hour monitoring needed
Okay I overestimate perhaps. But picks are usually submitted within 15-30 minutes of game starting. Which makes it difficult to check often or at the right time (after he posts and before game starts).
BTW it might appear that I'm complaining or something. I'm not. I think it's great you post your picks before game time and all I've seen from DD so far is honest picks and no tomfoolery (IE: "oh I picked A, B, and C yesterday" or "I actually bet the over not the under, I just mistyped it").
I just really wanna be able to bet these games without having to check several times a day. :-(
then you risk putting your money down on games that have players your expect to be playing out with an shootaround injury, team rules violation suspension, arrest, food poisoning. Plus early bets dont get the benefit of seeing line movement.
the fact that he waits till near gametime gives him credibility. Any lazy dope can post all their picks at 9am, or the day before.
I havent jumped on his bandwagon.....I still make my own picks...and some do match his.....But he is doing things the right way, the credible way.
"i wish" i could know everything I need to know by 9am......but it doesnt work that way.
Lakers -3 (starting about 15-20 min)
Miami +2.5 (or moneyline of +125 or better)
Larry: Just check between 3:15 and 4pm on game days where the first game starts at around 4:10 (PST).
That's the best I can do to help you.
If you read carefully above, I wasnt asking for times...it was RS///I was defending your "close to gametime" picks. As I said above, I do not use yourpicks but I admire your winning ways
Congrats on Utah.
In my business, college football, releasing a "play" on a particular time a particular day has gone the way of Dimetrodon. Lines move -- a lot. When you take a game is almost as important as who you take. That's why I'm hands on with the money. You can't get caught with bad numbers. Sometimes, in fact, if I feel strongly a line is going to substantially move, I'll bet in anticipation of the move, and then I'll figure out if I like either side later.
It's all very, very different from your father's sports betting.
Dan does a real good job processing information quickly as it becomes available near tipoff. He gets it out to us quickly.
I'm firing on Phoenix. Booker is likely to play.
Phoenix +3 (or moneyline +125 or better)
I'm doing 50/50 spread and ML.
Bad result for me with Miami.
Yeah, it covered by 0.5, but personally I'm not happy because I bet the moneyline on this one, feeling that the Cavs either shit the bed or play well, without much in between, so I didn't think the chance of them winning by 1 or 2 was that high.
Bad decision.
Refs fucked the Heat, as the NBA clearly wants the Cavs out of their funk.
First, with the game tied 85-85, Lebron stepped on a defender's foot, who then fell down, allowing Lebron to easily pass to an open man for a successful 3-pointer. No call.
So that was huge.
Then, with the score 90-89 Cavs with 12 seconds left, Miami successfully stole the ball, and a Cavs player (forget who) knocked the ball out of his hands, out of bounds. Somehow it was ruled Cavs ball, and that was that.
Heat did a horrible job with the final 7 seconds and couldn't even get off a shot (lol), but still, two huge bad calls at the end sealed the Heat's fate.
I might have to start asterisking certain picks.
The Lakers pick was again from that service which has about the same record as me this year (only about 40% as many picks, though), where sometimes they fall into my lap despite me not subscribing to the service (it's a glitch on their site, where I subscribe to a stats service and sometimes this also displays).
The only other one I posted from them was Houston -4.5, and it lost outright.
Then I skipped the next few, and those did pretty well (you can see their results after-the-fact every day), so I took a shot with this Lakers pick, even though I otherwise was going to skip that game entirely.
It was a horrible pick, and the Lakers got clobbered the whole way by an awful (3-20 in last 23) Orlando squad.
I'll probably indicate in the future if I'm making a pick which came from someone else, rather than the ones I come to on my own. This is only the second time I've done it. It also may be the last time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Have a plane to catch shortly, but why not fire away. Hope we both win, TW.
the analysis was sound on the cleveland game.....cavs last i looked shot 35 percent. If you look at the stat like for james, thomas and wade were 12 for 44...and they still won outright..
Early NBA games (starting in about 20-25 min):
Washington +4 (moneyline of +160 or better ok)
Memphis under 203 (202.5 ok)
Houston under 208.5 -- game starts about 5:10 PST, may want to wait, as this line might improve a bit
3 straight days of 2-1 -- and close to 3-0 yesterday, as the Memphis game lost its under with seconds left.
Here are two picks, for once well before game time:
Sac +13.5
Knicks +2 (I would be shocked if Giannis plays, even though he's "questionable" right now)
More later.
Lets also toss this onto the pile:
Lakers under 216
Two more picks.
Lakers +1
Portland under 215.5
Also, Bucks are playing Giannis anyway, and Bledsoe, and Parker.
Wow.
You can get Knicks +4.5-5 now. I still endorse it.
I hope people are appreciating this. This is as fine a high volume job of NBA handicapping as I have seen in 40 years in this business. It has been beyond rock solid. It is extremely rare to get anyone pumping out this many plays with this efficiency. No matter what happens over the last 30 games, Dan has done a tremendous job.
I also want to mention that the last couple of nights have highlighted the importance of timing the betting to the optimum numbers. If you've done that, you are rolling, and you saved yourself some mental wear and tear on the Knicks game tonight.
Cleveland +3.5 (moneyline +135 or better ok)
Denver +5
New Orleans +8
Indiana under 210.5 (starting in 30 min)
Took a day off NBA yesterday. Nobody was really going to care anyway because that's not the sport people were focusing on.
Still looking at the final 2 games (starting after 7pm PST), but here are my two picks on the others:
Portland under 211 (210.5 ok)
Charlotte under 219
Was on the fence about this one, but I'm doing it:
Portland +2.5 (or moneyline +120 or better)
One more:
Dallas under 214.5
Thanks for the info, as usual. How'd you do on superbowl?
Didn't bet Superbowl.
NBA
New York -1 (-1.5 ok)
Houston under 218.5
Washington under 213.5 (213 ok)
Watching Lakers right now. May go for them on the side, even though it's LOL to bet Lakers -8. I think it will move to 7.5. Will update soon.
0-3 is looming for me.
Let's try to salvage it:
Lakers -8 -105
Feels weird to bet that.
Making a few adjustments after struggling recently (including 1-3 yesterday)
Houston under 207.5
Starting in 20-25 min
More soon maybe
Actually I think that's it for tonight
Ugh.
Houston under had terrible first half (118 points), but great 2nd half, and was going to be close whether it won or lost.
James Harden hit a pair of 3s to hurt me, but the dagger came from a steal with less than a minute left (Miami was careless), allowing an uncontested layup for Houston to bring it to 207 points.
With about 30 seconds left, Miami got fouled while scoring a basket, and that was that. Ended up losing by 2.5, with a 210 total.
On the "picks I considered making but decided against, due to my adjustments" front, Miami +4.5 would have lost (sharps loved this one btw), and Brooklyn +9.5 would have squeaked by with a 0.5-point win.
Actually still considering San Antonio under. Will post update shortly.
I watched that game on the computer and at halftime didnt think you had a chance. And halfway theoughthe 4th it actually looked good. I was rooting for you. thats gambling
Decided to fire on San Antonio under.
Game starts in about 20 min.
San Antonio under 202 -105 (you can get 203 on Bovada on some accounts)
Thanks. I almost wrote it off at halftime.Quote:
Originally Posted by LarryS
Before that steal in the final minutes, I actually had a very good shot to win it, as the total was 205 and the game wasn't close, so I was basically fading either a Miami 3-pointer or 2-pointer+foul. If Miami scored quickly, they might have had another possession, but the game wasn't close enough to be worth fouling them, and Houston would have just held the ball for most of the remaining clock.
But then they got that steal, Houston got an easy quick basket, and I was in big trouble.
Dan
does a day like today, with the trades, make certain teams unplayable for a few weeks till we see how the pieces fit together? For a team like cleveland....teams stats go out the window, past performances agasint teams go out the window. Will you be avoiding cleveland, and perhaps Lakers for now?
Atlanta under 212
still looking at others
starts in about 20 min
Boston under 205 (204.5 ok)
OKC -3.5
OKC under 217
Indiana under 204
Starting 20 min
not seeing a lot I like today. Was on the fence about Clippers side, but didn't fire. So far it looks good but it's very early obv
If only I fired on the Cilppers.... oh well...
Here's another:
Sacramento +5 -115 (4.5 -110 ok)
Dan, if this is easily available to you, what is your record now for the season? It seems like you’ve gone through a bit of a bad spell recently.
Record is 153-120-4.
I have slipped a bit recently, splitting picks for 5 of the past 7 days, and losing the other 2 days. I did get screwed on an OT on Thursday, and should have gone 3-1 instead of 2-2.
I was 98-62-2 after December 30. I am 55-58-2 since then, so clearly there's been a downturn.
I am in the process of adjustments, as I think some of my strategies in the early/early-mid season are not translating well to mid-season.
At the moment, I also have more confidence in my totals than sides, and in fact might abandon sides (or at least decrease them) soon if I can't get them right.
Brooklyn +2.5 (or moneyline +120 or better)
Lakers under 214 -115 (213.5 ok)
Looking at San Antonio under, but not posting yet
I have Sac under 211
Posted on my Pokerfraudalert site.
Forgot to post here.
Already started.
Lost my 3 picks over the past 2 days.
Yesterday's pick was on pace to win, but a surprisingly close game blew it over by 6 points due to fouling.
Probably won't have any picks today. Considering Phoenix +15.5, but maybe not.
Looked at the earlier games and didn't like any of them. Considered New Orleans +3 but backed off. They were 15 points up, but they are melting down now, so they may not end up covering!
Also considered Brooklyn, but good thing I stayed away because they are shitting the bed AGAIN. They are really terrible.
Also considered NY +11.5 and that one will probably cover.
Also considered San Antonio under, which hasn't started yet, but decided against it.
So looks like despite all of these considerations, there's a good chance I'll be making no picks, which might be good, because I've been slumping big time recently.
Firing Phoenix +16.5 on Bovada
16 ok
RIP suns. ;(
Miami under 204.5 (can get 205 at some books, and even 206 on some Bovada accounts)
Starting in 30-35 min
Minnesota +3.5
Starting in 15-20 min
Sacramento under 206
Guys,
I've hit a wall. I'm thinking it might soon be time to pack it in and try again in the first half of next NBA season. My methods which worked so well are now failing, even with some modifications.
I'm also finding far fewer "value" under bets, and it doesn't help that a lot more games seem to be going over in general right now.
I've lost 7 in a row -- my worst streak of the year.
Here's one for 35 mins from now, but I don't blame you if you don't trust it:
Denver +3 -115 (2.5 -110 ok, +125 or better moneyline ok)
yeah. sometimes you have to pack it in before the all star weekend, because the 2 days before the break you never know if the players minds are on the game or in the Bahamas.
I would think the first thing to go would be defense.
I just was listening to a guy from a betting website on a sports station. He wasnt selling anything...he was just a regular guest ...and he said he plugged in for the last 20 years, the wed and thur before the allstar break......and 61 percent of the time for those games, the home team covered.
I am sitting out till the weekend as usual. good luck
Honestly it's been a sharp's nightmare for the last 2 weeks or so because there's been a ton of games where either the very good team covered or the very bad team didn't cover. So the "obvious" public bet has been the right one.
And then scoring has been up recently, so unders have often been losing.
NBA afternoon games:
Charlotte -8 (Bovada is -7.5 -115)
NY +3.5 (moneyline +140 or better ok)
Maybe picks later the two late games
Nice return from the break.
Charlotte easily covers, Knicks win outright.
I don't see anything worth betting in the remaining 2. I'll take my 2-0 and run.
Record 156-127-4
dan, I am not asking yo to disclose secrets...so if I am off base just tell me.
When you say "the sharps" are betting teamX.....i may be assuming wrong..but are you looking at line movement close to gametime? And if so..if you see line movement toward a fave...like charlotte...how do you determin the squares arent moving the line vs the sharps.
I understand the conceptof seeing the underdog move, and the squares never move the underdog to a lower price.
No, I have some stats services which track the sharp betting. It's approximate, of course, but it gives me a good idea.
With today's games I bet, the sharps liked NY but were neutral on Charlotte.
Houston under 225 (224/224.5 ok) - Gordon questionable but I think he won't play - starting 5pm PST
Looking at Spurs side and under, but not firing yet
Let's do it.
Spurs under 212 (starting 6:10pm PST)
Public is super heavy on the over.
This is what I got so far:
Orlando under 216.5
Another:
Miami Over 197 (197.5 ok)
Will post the later games (5:30pm PST and beyond) as we get closer.
BTW my record is 157-128-4.
NBA early (10:10am PST game):
Charlotte under 212 (211.5 ok)
More later. Next 2 games start at 12:10pm PST.
Went 1-1 yesterday. 158-129-4 is my record.
Should've been 2-0 honestly. Orlando under was ahead the whole way, then fell apart at the end.
Tied.
Here's a last minute pair of picks on the Spurs game:
San Antonio +5
San Antonio under 213
Since I hit 'em both with the Spurs, let's go for a similar one with Denver:
Denver +5 (4.5 ok)
Denver under 226 (225.5 ok)
You might want to wait a bit on these, as I think the lines might improve close to game time (which is at 5:10pm PT)
Last minute NBA (more later maybe)
Atlanta +2.5 (moneyline +120 or better ok)
NY Knicks +12.5
New Orleans under 236
New Orleans -7
Orlando under 218
Looking at final 2 games as well, may post more around 5:30PT
2-3 yesterday. 4 of the 5 were very close. NO -7 won by 2, Orlando under 218 won by 1, NY +12.5 lost by 1.5, and NO under 236 lost by 5.
Two picks for right now, on same game:
Miami +0 (-1 ok)
Miami under 205
Starts 435 pt
Clippers under 229.5
No Gallinari, possibly no Milsap
2-1 yesterday .... though a buzzer-beater in the Miami game missed, which meant both of those were losing if it hit (fortunately it missed).
Last minute:
Detroit over 209
Also:
Golden State under 226.5
Dallas under 209
Screwed by OT again, causing a 2-1 day to become 1-2.
---
Philadelphia +3 (moneyline +130 or better ok)
Maybe a pick later involving the Kings, so stay tuned.
Sac under 213
Stung by OT for the second day in a row yesterday, once again ruining a great under pick.
Tons of games today but amazingly I can only find one bet I feel good about, aside from the two late games I'm still examining:
Milwaukee under 211
More later... maybe
Two double-game picks today:
Houston under 213
Houston -7.5 -115 (-8 -110 ok)
San Antonio -5
San Antonio under 218
Houston under is a disaster
Hopefully the side comes back to win.
Both San Antonio picks good so far.
Here's one more pick:
Utah under 202
Bad day yesterday.
Charlotte under 218
Dallas +4
Dallas under 223 (222.5 ok)
I was looking at that line. It was 3.5 earlier today when i placed my bets at Hill, and as I looked at the numbers, its true that dallas always plays NO close. But its almost as if the man is begging us to be on NO.
I tossed this game. For the talent and winning streak NO is on....I was looking more at -6 for NO as reasonable. So I agree with the side you chose, although I wasnt brave enough to take it.good luck
Milwaukee under 208.5
So far not very happy with the NO/DAL game.
Oops
I went 2-0 but forgot to post here.
Posted it on my other site -- San Antonio and Boston unders
Charlotte +1.5 (+105 moneyline ok)
Stars 4:10 pst
That's all until the 3 late ones, where I may have more
Actually I lied. One more and that's it for the day:
New Orleans under 236 (235.5 ok)