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It's always the same thing.....Alan is right and EVERYONE else in the world is wrong. Every topic, every argument it's the same. EVERYTHING is that stupid 18 y.o.'s in a row thing. He saw it. IMPOSSIBLE! But he saw it and everyone else that knows it is impossible is wrong.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Obviously he could give a shit about emabarrasing himself; for him it's all about ATTENTION, be it positive or negative, it's all the same to him.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
He's been on the receiving end of well-deserved critcism for DECADES that I've seen on various gambling boards, and it rolls off him like rain off a duck.
He is what he is.
https://r.search.yahoo.com/_ylt=AwrT...LYajPpL67JLZw-Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Some people run through the finish line, and some let the dew build up on them. And then there are the hangers-on.
All you have to do is look at Alan's issues with Mike Shackleford. A number of people, myself included have had issues with Mike Shackleford. But nearly all are about the way he has run his site or the politics of his site and the AP community. There is almost nobody that challenges Mike's mathematical expertise. Nobody that is except Alan....and his buddy in denial...Singer.
Alan just has a problem with the mathematics of advantage play. I actually think Alan has a problem with math. He doesn't understand it, doesn't want to understand it and when it is proven to him, refuses to accept it. So he challenges me and anyone else that is working off proven mathematical facts even though we have all had proven success doing so (actual money won), while he has losing year after losing year. (His own admission).
He thinks he is challenging me, in his continuing effort to discredit me, but h is challenging proven mathematics.
I mean who is the fool here? This is like the coach of the 0-16 Cleveland Browns telling Bill Belichick how to coach. :rolleyes:
And when you return from the break, the heads-up table you abandoned is vacant.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayYou play the neutral count - the high negative count is abandoned with a bathroom break.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyHow can you get into a high positive count heads-up situation without playing negative or marginal counts?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
You sit down to play heads-up. How do you play until a high positive count develops, without playing negative or marginal counts?
Please list the criticism for DECADES that you are speaking about?Quote:
Originally Posted by MisterV
You and I have battled over one thing: I say dice influencing is possible, but I concede that I have seen three and possibly four true dice influencers.
18 yos in a row? I was there. I saw it. Everyone else says it's impossible but they weren't there to say "Alan you miscounted." Frankly I don't care. I didn't roll it. I have nothing to win or lose whether you believe it happened or not.
The two dice in a cup? Curiously the peeker knows the answer is 1/6, but you "math guys" says his friend's correct answer is 1/11. Isn't this interesting: there are two correct answers.
Now what else? Win loss goals and limits. The biggest casino on the planet is the stock/commodity markets and you'd be insane to trade without have stop losses, and the smart traders use rising stop losses when they are in a profitable situation. Still want to argue that?
Now tell me what else is in this decade of criticism? Do you also want to tell me that after losing $8800 you actually had a winning day?
Telling someone that they had a winning day after losing $8800 sounds like something a con artist tells his mark, while asking him to invest more money in his no-lose system. I think I helped put some people in federal prison for doing that... they were selling mortgage investments. The marks kept being told their investments were going up in value but meanwhile their cash was evaporating.
You have pretty much proved yourself a fool. Wow, I had no idea someone could be so out there. Oh shit!!!!! You are the site founder? LOL........WTF?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Trading and playing a game with an edge are 2 completely different things. You need a stop loss gambling because you are playing a negative expectation game. This is pretty basic stuff to understand.
Are you saying you don't need a stop loss even in a positive expectation game? Of course you are. Now think about that. Why wouldn't you want a stop loss in a positive expectation game? Are you infallible?Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
Forgive me. APs of course are infallible. Even when they lose $8800 they're winning.
LMAO
Well, he's STILL up nearly $1,000,000 lifetime. And I'm certain he'll end this year up a lot of money also. So, how much are YOU up again lifetime?????? Now that's a REAL "LMAO!"Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAre you saying you don't need a stop loss even in a positive expectation game? Of course you are. Now think about that. Why wouldn't you want a stop loss in a positive expectation game? Are you infallible?Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
Forgive me. APs of course are infallible. Even when they lose $8800 they're winning.
LMAO
I wonder if all these APs are looking for investors in their play?
Good grief...How easy you made it Alan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Negative expectation game = the more you play the more you lose. So a stop limit prevents you from losing too much.
Positive expectation game = the more you play the more you WIN. So yes...your question is exactly right....WHY WOULD YOU WANT A STOP LIMIT IN A POSITIVE EXPECTATION GAME? Maybe YOU should think about that! :rolleyes:
Alan, you are focusing on short term results (a single day) which is meaningless. That's like looking at a baseball game that Sandy Koufax lost in 1967 and saying "gee he must have been a bad pitcher". :confused:
Biloxi Bill got banned for trolling, but Alan's still here somehow.....?
It is really this simple: think about the word "stop" and think about the terms "positive expectation" (winning) and "negative expectation" (losing).
Negative expectation: a 'stop limit' stops you from losing too much.
Positive expectation: a 'stop limit' stops you from winning too much.
Ok, how about this example Alan. (I am going to keep trying to see if I can get through his thick skull)
So Roulette: the house has an advantage right? Does that mean no player ever wins playing roulette? No One ever plays for an hour and walks away a winner? Does the house win every time? No of course not. Players win, because it is just variance (of a negative expectation game).
So, when a player wins playing roulette, does the house (who has the advantage) have some sort of "stop limit"? Does the house say, we have lost xx amount of dollars (maybe $8800), so we are going to close up for the day? Maybe tomorrow things will go better?
OF COURSE NOT! The house knows they have they advantage and if the players keep playing long enough (long-term) the house will win.
So, playing a positive expectation game, where the player has an advantage, why would a player have some sort of artificial stop limit? The more he plays, whether today, tomorrow, next week or next month, the more he is going to win in the long run.....just like the house with roulette. :)
No stop loss needed when exploiting an edge. More playing equals more money earned is why you would not have a stop loss. Does the casino close a table down because they are losing? NO, they bring out more chips and keep the lights on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAre you saying you don't need a stop loss even in a positive expectation game? Of course you are. Now think about that. Why wouldn't you want a stop loss in a positive expectation game? Are you infallible?Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPen
Forgive me. APs of course are infallible. Even when they lose $8800 they're winning.
LMAO
My edge is infallible.
After the very clear and simple explanations here about +EV, I think I finally understand it.
One thing I don’t understand...doesn’t not playing continuously affect the final outcome? If others play it while you are gone and they hit several jackpots. Don’t you have to “start over” each time you go back?
Or is that too small of a time to affect the overall results?
Maybe I don’t quite understand. Lol
You are trying to relate an action that is +EV to an action that is -EV. When you find a real edge nothing others do matters, unless they are grinding the same edge in the same joint as you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimp
He is a very entertaining individual, a wanna be di and a roller of yo'sQuote:
Originally Posted by RS__
I'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).
This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.
The longest frequency I've ever dealt with is 10/7 DB with royal odds 48,000. I like hittable odds. For the past 10 years the longest frequency I've dealt with is 1551 (five-spot video keno progressive). And that's on a game that on turbo speed plays at 2400 games per hour. One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15. I don't pass them up because I'm there anyway on the bigger plays so I may as well spin the one minute play off too while I'm there. That is, if I find one.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).
This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.
You would be hard pressed to get me to sit down on some long term play like 9/6 Jacks with major cashback. I like being in and out of the seat all day. My plays are short and sweet. I like it like that.
High counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small, strangely enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyAnd when you return from the break, the heads-up table you abandoned is vacant.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayYou play the neutral count - the high negative count is abandoned with a bathroom break.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
You sit down to play heads-up. How do you play until a high positive count develops, without playing negative or marginal counts?
You are more than welcome to play though hugely negative counts if you want, rather than taking a break and going back to a starting deck with a neutral count. It's your money.
Mickey did I read this correctly: you found a one minute play that's worth $15, and isn't that $900 an hour?
Here's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Thought I would stay out of this but you make it too easy or hard, not sure which.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonHere's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Do you understand you have to find the situation? You cannot just sit and play this play over and over again?
I find it hard to believe someone that has found a way to be successful in life like you appear to be is this dense. You have to be acting this way to just f with people and get off on it.
But consider me guilty of playing your games now too.
I'm sorry but he said it has a frequency of 36. And it hits about once a minute. Would Mickey care to clarify?Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozThought I would stay out of this but you make it too easy or hard, not sure which.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonHere's that quote. Did I miss something or is that $900 an hour?Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
Do you understand you have to find the situation? You cannot just sit and play this play over and over again?
I find it hard to believe someone that has found a way to be successful in life like you appear to be is this dense. You have to be acting this way to just f with people and get off on it.
But consider me guilty of playing your games now too.
In the context of the thread it appeared a frequency of 36 means it hits after 36 plays.
Please read his entire post.
And what if the first hand out of the shoe is 2 face cards for both you and the dealer?...back to the bathroom?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayHigh counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small, strangely enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyAnd when you return from the break, the heads-up table you abandoned is vacant.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
You sit down to play heads-up. How do you play until a high positive count develops, without playing negative or marginal counts?
Here is what Mickey wrote. The first frequency was the royal, then the 5 spot and then what appears to be his $900 an hour play. Of course I would understand if Mickey says he didn't mean it that way. I asked him to explain it. You can too Mr Boz.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThe longest frequency I've ever dealt with is 10/7 DB with royal odds 48,000. I like hittable odds. For the past 10 years the longest frequency I've dealt with is 1551 (five-spot video keno progressive). And that's on a game that on turbo speed plays at 2400 games per hour. One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15. I don't pass them up because I'm there anyway on the bigger plays so I may as well spin the one minute play off too while I'm there. That is, if I find one.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).
This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.
You would be hard pressed to get me to sit down on some long term play like 9/6 Jacks with major cashback. I like being in and out of the seat all day. My plays are short and sweet. I like it like that.
Yes it should hit within 36 spins, which takes less than a minute to theoretically hit. Most plays of this type take longer to cycle through. Again you don’t find 60 of these plays an hour. But as he said it is an extra bonus while looking for other plays.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI'm sorry but he said it has a frequency of 36. And it hits about once a minute. Would Mickey care to clarify?Quote:
Originally Posted by The BozThought I would stay out of this but you make it too easy or hard, not sure which.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Do you understand you have to find the situation? You cannot just sit and play this play over and over again?
I find it hard to believe someone that has found a way to be successful in life like you appear to be is this dense. You have to be acting this way to just f with people and get off on it.
But consider me guilty of playing your games now too.
In the context of the thread it appeared a frequency of 36 means it hits after 36 plays.
Please read his entire post.
Then I think he needs to explain that, don't you?
No because most of those in the discussion, or reading it like I was, clearly understood it. And from as much time as you have spent over the years reading and debating AP plays, I thought you would have as well. Even if you think it’s all BS, I would think someone that wants to argue it’s impossible would know what they are denying is possible.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Isn’t that what a good reporter does? Learns everything they can about both sides then reports?
I also read what he wrote. There were no conditions or disclaimers. It was stated matter of factly.
And it is fact, but you were the one to say it was a $900 an hour play, not Mickey. You only hear AP’s using hourly figures when it is a play than actually lasts hours. And they also add its theoretical.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I’m not trying to insult you Alan but I do find it hard to believe you don’t grasp these concepts. It’s not your first time discussing AP tactics.
Sorry Boz but when the guy says the play comes after 36 plays and that's about one a minute that means it's a $900 per hour play.
But thanks for letting me know Mickey left out the fine points... like it really doesn't come about every 36 plays or every minute.
I'm just trying to get a clear picture of these claims. After all I'm still confused how losing $8800 creates a winning day. I guess I don't understand AP-speak.
Who said, "losing $8800 creates a winning day." ?????Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Playing with an advantage creates value (win or lose), eventually, if it's played long enough it will turn into actual profits.
How long is long enough? That's an entirely different subject and it greatly depends on what the situation is.
Megabucks was given as an example. it's possible to play for a lifetime at +EV on something Megabucks and never see a profit.
There are also situations where you earn a an actual profit with each spin.
believe me, I would much rather play stuff that has little or no variance. Given a choice, between let's say a double on 4 of a kind promo that's a 6% advantage, and a VP progressive where the EV comes from hitting a specific suited Royal with an 8% advantage. I won't even have to think twice, I'm playing the double on 4 of a kind promo.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmThe longest frequency I've ever dealt with is 10/7 DB with royal odds 48,000. I like hittable odds. For the past 10 years the longest frequency I've dealt with is 1551 (five-spot video keno progressive). And that's on a game that on turbo speed plays at 2400 games per hour. One of my plays has a frequency of just 36. It's like a one minute play that's worth $15. I don't pass them up because I'm there anyway on the bigger plays so I may as well spin the one minute play off too while I'm there. That is, if I find one.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfI'm sure some AP's would dedicate some time and BR to it. Most wouldn't go bonkers on it, but there would be a few AP's that would put a fair amount of time and money into it. I would take a shot, I just wouldn't go crazy.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I remember when quarter-mania got to +EV and lots of pros were playing it for long periods of time. I took some time to play it, but I didn't dedicate myself to putting in much time. It paid off for one well known AP who hit it(It was over 500k IIRC).
This is an example where someone should fall back on Bankroll Management and have a stop loss in fear of hurting their bankroll to the point where they couldn't continue to play other stuff without going broke. That's not to be confused with stopping for the day(or whatever)just because "things are not clicking." MOST EVERYONE knows stopping when you have an advantage just because "things are not clicking" is mathematically stupid. Assuming your BR is not in jeopardy.
You would be hard pressed to get me to sit down on some long term play like 9/6 Jacks with major cashback. I like being in and out of the seat all day. My plays are short and sweet. I like it like that.
However, if there was a situation where you could auto-run millions of hands on just one or the other. I would go with the 8% play.
p.s. Given the choice between running around from casino to casino looking for silver pyramids, pants vs gremlins, pingpangpong, hieroglyph 3D games at a higher percentage vs a lower percentage all day long ass in the seat plays. I would take the ass in the seat play.
High variance is something AP's do not want.
You are correct Most of the time an AP doesn't want personal high variance. I guess there are some who enjoy the thrill of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
There are some situations where you want the bets/games you are playing to have higher variance to maximize the EV .
I don't know about "enjoy the thrill of variance", but I think I am a little different than many AP's here. My AP arsenal is very limited. I call myself an AP. I play blackjack with an advantage....isn't that an AP? :rolleyes: But in my mind, I always consider myself a blackjack player, a professional blackjack player. Blackjack is my love. In my 15th year of supporting myself from blackjack play, I still love the game. (well...98% of the time...:rolleyes:).Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfYou are correct Most of the time an AP doesn't want personal high variance. I guess there are some who enjoy the thrill of it.Quote:
Originally Posted by jbjb
So as a "professional blackjack player" or a "blackjack AP", variance is a big part of our game. And we learn to deal with it. Not 'enjoy' it but deal with it. Losing 8, 10, 12 grand like Alan has been obsessing about is nothing. I honestly don't think twice about such 'variance'. I can't say that I have completely mastered variance yet, because really extended periods of going backwards, weeks turning into months, still are very "trying" to me. :(
As I said, I wouldn't say I enjoy variance, but I have come to realize that for a blackjack AP (card counter), variance really is our friend. For without variance, if players just won their EV, or close to it, right on schedule, without the major swings involved, I think there would be a ton of card counter, instead of a relatively few. There would be so many the casinos wouldn't be able to offer beatable blackjack games. So I really believe....variance is my friend. :)
AxelWolf I copied this post from earlier in this thread so you can see who said losing $8800 gave them a winning day. To be exact the statement was that his play that day with its accumulated EV (despite the $8800 loss) was not only his best day of the year "and will translate into actual win." He goes on to say that "EV accumulated" despite wins or losses "makes every day a winning day."Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWell, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I purposely didn't answer your questions the first 3 times you asked because they are irrelevant questions and frankly you are not going to understand my answers. But I will answer to humor you.
When did I realize I was losing? Don't be ridiculous. I know where I am at winning or losing maybe not to the penny, but pretty close, every single minute of play.
Why wouldn't I walk away? Because whether I was winning or losing that day, is completely irrelevant. That is just variation. I was accumulating strong EV and in the end (long-term) my actual win and EV will be very close. Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win. :cool:
I used to have a 'signature line' on another site that read: "I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day and in the end (long-term) actual wins and EV will come together."
That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP. :)
This is funny because Alan is re-posting this because he thinks it is so ridiculous. But it is only ridiculous to a degenerative gambler. Any AP knows exactly what I said and I suspect will agree with it. I mean even an AP that is not specifically a blackjack AP, will understand what I am saying. Only someone clueless to advantage play doesn't understand these statements.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
And you know what....I will amend that right here. I'll bet most members of this site that aren't AP's understand what I am saying. I'll bet MrV and LarryS understand what I am saying. Only Alan doesn't understand. Of course Alan not only doesn't want to understand, he is trying NOT to understand. :rolleyes:
He clearly explained why it was a successful day. Everyone but you understood what he was saying. I understood it to mean.... he got lots of time in with his money when he had a better than avrage +EV situation. There's a good chance if he keeps doing that he will reap the rewards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonAxelWolf I copied this post from earlier in this thread so you can see who said losing $8800 gave them a winning day. To be exact the statement was that his play that day with its accumulated EV (despite the $8800 loss) was not only his best day of the year "and will translate into actual win." He goes on to say that "EV accumulated" despite wins or losses "makes every day a winning day."Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJWell, I m not a "smart gambler", I am a professional blackjack player. So I don't know what "smart gamblers" do. If you are telling me "smart gamblers" rely on win/loss stop limits, then they are NOT going to be long-term winning players.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I purposely didn't answer your questions the first 3 times you asked because they are irrelevant questions and frankly you are not going to understand my answers. But I will answer to humor you.
When did I realize I was losing? Don't be ridiculous. I know where I am at winning or losing maybe not to the penny, but pretty close, every single minute of play.
Why wouldn't I walk away? Because whether I was winning or losing that day, is completely irrelevant. That is just variation. I was accumulating strong EV and in the end (long-term) my actual win and EV will be very close. Whether or not I win or lose for that day isn't what determines a successful day. Accumulating EV is. And that particular day that you are obsessing on ($8800 loss) happens to be my best day of the year. I accumulated more EV that day so far this year and in the end that will translate into actual win. :cool:
I used to have a 'signature line' on another site that read: "I don't track my play by wins or losses. I track my play by EV accumulated. That makes every day a winning day and in the end (long-term) actual wins and EV will come together."
That sir, is the basic philosophy of AP. :)
You like to use technicalities when it suits you.
What is a winning day? He didn't say he WON MONEY. He said every day is a winning day, he could have been talking about just being alive. I know that's not what he was getting at, but that's the same kind of BS games you like to play.
I don't know if you can ACCUMULATE EV or not. I don't think you can ACCUMULATE EV, that would suggest you are due and whatever happened in the past WILL affect the future. Every hand stats over. Only new hands have value and only the value of whatever the value of the current hand/EV is, not the old ones.
Are his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
or how much he played that day?
You would continue to play. But for hugely negative counts you would quit. Glad to hear you acknowledge it's possible for small cards to come out first. Initially it sounded like you thought this wasn't a possibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyAnd what if the first hand out of the shoe is 2 face cards for both you and the dealer?...back to the bathroom?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplayHigh counts can develop from neutral counts. The first cards to come out of the deck can be small, strangely enough.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
How many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
36Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyHow many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
I don't know what everyone understood, and frankly neither do you.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
But I do know that I don't understand the conflicting statements made within the same quote...
Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
OK...you've established with that answer that you have no credibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay36Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyHow many times can you walk away from negative counts, only to return to play heads-up with a new shoe...without getting made, backed-off or flat-betted?Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
You don't need to answer any more of my questions...you're a fraud.
None of that should matter going forward. If someone had a situation where they had 10 million in EV in a few hours of time betting. Now suddenly that opportunity dried up, and yet they broke even. That doesn't mean they will somehow run really well on other stuff in the future and make 10 million.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyAre his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
or how much he played that day?
Thank you for a sensible answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfNone of that should matter going forward. If someone had a situation where they had 10 million in EV in a few hours of time betting. Now suddenly that opportunity dried up, and yet they broke even. That doesn't mean they will somehow run really well on other stuff in the future and make 10 million.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyAre his chances now better because he had a losing day...or are they now any different because he played that day,Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
or how much he played that day?
Just to be clear...despite what he thinks, the fact that he played many hands with an advantage on the day that he lost
has absolutely no effect on his future results.
He did not accumulate EV...that is not possible.
Is that correct?
Excellent. So you won't be asking anymore questions ever again when I post right ? since they have no value right ?Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyQuote:
Originally Posted by tableplay36Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
OK...you've established with that answer that you have no credibility.
You don't need to answer any more of my questions...you're a fraud.
You answered questions that were asked of others, then I continued the examination with you since you seemed interested in helping find the truth,Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
when others were not.
But when faced with a question that you could not answer, you were not man enough to admit that, and provided a nonsense answer.
I'm going to continue to ask questions, but not of you since you really don't have any information other than what's obvious...
Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
Let's not forget he never said how much EV he accumulated. That 8800 probably doesn't represent the EV he had at that time.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThank you for a sensible answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfNone of that should matter going forward. If someone had a situation where they had 10 million in EV in a few hours of time betting. Now suddenly that opportunity dried up, and yet they broke even. That doesn't mean they will somehow run really well on other stuff in the future and make 10 million.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Just to be clear...despite what he thinks, the fact that he played many hands with an advantage on the day that he lost
has absolutely no effect on his future results.
He did not accumulate EV...that is not possible.
Is that correct?
I think someone can explain it much better than I can.
It would be nice to be able to sell accumulated EV, even for a discount.
Ok so the answer to my question then is yes you won't be asking me anymore questions, when I post. Having obvious information BTW, is different than having fraudulent information. So which is it fraudulent or obvious ? The two are mutually exclusive.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyYou answered questions that were asked of others, then I continued the examination with you since you seemed interested in helping find the truth,Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
when others were not.
But when faced with a question that you could not answer, you were not man enough to admit that, and provided a nonsense answer.
I'm going to continue to ask questions, but not of you since you really don't have any information other than what's obvious...
Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
In my own BJ endeavors, I will abandon a negative account once an hour if such occurs which is in tune with normal habits if I am planning a session which is that long. Also, no matter what, abandoning one negative count per casino session is better than abandoning zero of them - which I assume you will think is a fraudulent statement.
Yep, that's right. The seat time is worth $900 an hour. I think I get about 2 hours seat time a year on that play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
The anecdote about abandoning negative counts once per hour doesn't even jibe with what you wrote earlier...you're spinning yarns.
Quote:
Originally Posted by coach belly
Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
That is obvious fraudulent information. It's nonsense, no attempt to be genuine...you're a fraud.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
I hope Mr Boz saw this.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYep, that's right. The seat time is worth $900 an hour. I think I get about 2 hours seat time a year on that play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Make sure you set everyone straight anytime I post then, by posting that I am a fraud as a reply to each of my posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThe anecdote about abandoning negative counts once per hour doesn't even jibe with what you wrote earlier...you're spinning yarns.
That is obvious fraudulent information. It's nonsense, no attempt to be genuine...you're a fraud.Quote:
Originally Posted by tableplay
This ought to be interesting. High variance in stories.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI hope Mr Boz saw this.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYep, that's right. The seat time is worth $900 an hour. I think I get about 2 hours seat time a year on that play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I will sell all of mine at 80% face value on each day that it is created.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolfLet's not forget he never said how much EV he accumulated. That 8800 probably doesn't represent the EV he had at that time.Quote:
Originally Posted by coach bellyThank you for a sensible answer.Quote:
Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Just to be clear...despite what he thinks, the fact that he played many hands with an advantage on the day that he lost
has absolutely no effect on his future results.
He did not accumulate EV...that is not possible.
Is that correct?
I think someone can explain it much better than I can.
It would be nice to be able to sell accumulated EV, even for a discount.
* Disclaimer-I will not reimburse you for what the casino steals.
Ok, let's talk about "accumulated EV" since Axel and some others don't seem to like that term.
In Blackjack card counting AP, your real positive situations (+EV) is the max bets counts, or strong plus counts, where the player has an advantage of 3-4%. What happens on these hands are going to determine whether you win or lose for the session, day, week, and year. That's where your results REALLY come from, not what happens on all the neutral, slightly negative or even slightly positive counts.
So let's say I max bet $400 when I have a 3% advantage. These are my max bets counts. And $400 x 3% advantage is $12. Each of these max bet counts is worth $12 in EV, or win expectation of $12. (more with higher advantages)
So when you have a winning day it is because you won more of these max bet opportunities that you lost. And when you have a losing day, it is because you lost more of these max bet opportunities than you won. Simple enough right? :confused: So the goal is to get as many of these opportunities as possible. That is why I jump tables to better opportunities. :cool:
So on a day like Alan is dwelling on that I lose $8800 or any amount really, it is likely I lost more of these max bet opportunities. On a big losing day...probably most of these opportunities. :(
But given enough trials, you eventually HAVE to win you fair share. The math GUARANTEES this! It might not be that day, or the next day, or even the next week. Losing periods like that are not uncommon, as a matter of fact they are quite common in blackjack. But say over 25-30 max bet opportunities a day, at a 3-4% advantage, over 250-300 days a year, the math will work. And that is what accumulating EV really is about.
Each max bet opportunity is worth $12-$16, occasionally $20 at higher true counts and advantage. Your results for a day, a week, won't necessarily match this accumulated EV, but over the long run, and we can debate what long run is, but over a year, actual results will come pretty close to this accumulated EV. It has to mathematically. Arguing that it won't is arguing against the math, something a few people here seem to do regularly. They might as well be arguing the earth is flat. :rolleyes:
I am NOT a math guy, so I don't do a great job of explaining the math. It's hard enough for me to just understand it and sometimes I don't. :rolleyes: Fortunately, you don't have to be a Math Wiz, to benefit from the math. Guys like Shackleford and Schlesinger and Wattenberger and his software do the work for me. :) But the math works. And people like Alan that are denying the math are denying reality. Just like the 18 y.o.'s in a row all over again. :rolleyes:
Yeah. But the bottom line is you lost $8800.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Everything else sounds like a con artist telling his mark to ignore that his initial investment disappeared and that he should pour in more money because a big payday is coming. I helped put con artists in federal prison with that spiel as they bilked retirees out of their life savings in a mortgage investment scam.
THAT DAY I lost! Big woop. I am still ahead 3 grand total for the 10 days played this year! AND 600K over the last 8 years! AND just under a million dollars for my career!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I never claimed that I don't have losing days, weeks, months. Unfortunately they are all to frequent. :(
I don't know what it is you want from me Alan? I don't know what you are trying so hard to prove or disprove? :confused:
Why?Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonI hope Mr Boz saw this.Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmYep, that's right. The seat time is worth $900 an hour. I think I get about 2 hours seat time a year on that play.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I don't think Axel is disagreeing with anything you wrote there.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
If you look at his results for a year he did not lose $8800 but won something like $100,000. That's what you are not getting, Alan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan MendelsonYeah. But the bottom line is you lost $8800.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Everything else sounds like a con artist telling his mark to ignore that his initial investment disappeared and that he should pour in more money because a big payday is coming. I helped put con artists in federal prison with that spiel as they bilked retirees out of their life savings in a mortgage investment scam.
Actually I didn't. :( My half of my blackjack partnership was 62k. I contributed only 58k. :( (I did have a bit of other non-BJ AP earnings)Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
A down year. I was not only low man on my two man blackjack team, but I was not top earner in my household. But in my defense, I did miss 2 months with the heart surgery. :rolleyes:
OF COURSE NOT. He just described a very basic rundown of something that's been described many times before and anyone who's not retarded should be able to comprehend.... How and where your EV comes from and how things should look in the long run.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaxPenI don't think Axel is disagreeing with anything you wrote there.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJ
Can someone get rid of this Kyke guy?
Can /do you accumulate EV is an entirely different puzzle. I can see how many people could start to get confused when someone uses that term. It starts to imply dueness and other wacky concepts.
things seem to average out, but they almost never truly do, they just keep getting closer and closer so close where it doesn't really matter much. I doubt KJ will know on his deathbed if he's up or down 8800 from his EV since that 8800 will be a minuscule percentage.
good explanation from someone else on a different forum on long term convergence:
in a coin flip, heads/tails converges, heads=tails does not,
i.e., the ratio 1,000,000/1,010,000 is close to one but 1,000,000 is not close to 1,010,000,
it is off by 10,000. 2,000,000/2,015,000 is closer to one, yet it is off by 15,000. When you
gamble, the ratio of heads to tails means nothing, but the difference between the number of
heads and the number of tails is everything.
Why? Because Mr Boz claimed I created the $900 an hour figure while all I did was use the math for your return for one minute. Go back in this thread and read the exchange.
I am well aware that no matter what I say I will be challenged. Even when I agree with MisterV for example about DI schools even he challenges me.
You lost but you still claim that the EV of playing with the $8800 loss will still make you a winner. Do you realize yet how ridiculous that is? You can't lose cash and claim to be a winner at the same time.Quote:
Originally Posted by kewlJTHAT DAY I lost! Big woop. I am still ahead 3 grand total for the 10 days played this year! AND 600K over the last 8 years! AND just under a million dollars for my career!Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
I never claimed that I don't have losing days, weeks, months. Unfortunately they are all to frequent. :(
I don't know what it is you want from me Alan? I don't know what you are trying so hard to prove or disprove? :confused:
Had you simply said I played my best game but had a losing day there wouldn't be this discussion about the real world value of EV, and by the way what is its real world value? LOL
Second point: you rejected a stop loss so you wouldn't lose all $8800 claiming the EV will make you a winner. I don't care what your long term theory says, you could have walked out after losing $2000 or as regnis suggested you could have walked after losing $4000.
Were you unable to get up and walk out? You of all people who plays for a job should value every dollar.
Me? I have a pension plan that alone is worth triple what your lifetime wins are. And social security is icing on the cake as is my health insurance for life.
You'll argue that you never know when the cards will change for you. Well they didn't change when you were down $2,000 and they didn't change when you were down $5,000 and they didn't change when you were down $8,000.
Put your theory aside and think about reality sometime. The whole world can't depend on theory. Meanwhile bills don't get paid with EV.
I put a down payment on two houses, invested a relatively small amount into cryptos which is now worth a lot more than what it was (still not huge though), pay bills & expenses, and more.....because I follow the math and moreso ignore the day to day trivial wins and losses. So.....yeah, generating EV does pay the bills, and more!
Bullshit. EV has no real world value.
Alan, I thank you for your 'advice' on how to generate income as a professional blackjack player.
In the 8 years since I have lived and played Vegas fulltime I have earned a profit of over $781,000 from advantage play, $587,000 of that from blackjack play. Being that YOU have earned $0 profit from advantage play ("never had a winning year"), you will forgive me if I keep doing it my way....which actually isn't "my way" at all, but the way all successful blackjack advantage players operate.
As far as your pension plan. Good for you. Sincerely, I am happy you have a nice retirement. You are 70 years old and I am half that. Don't compare where we are at in our retirement financial position.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RS__
I have received 2 different mortgages in the last 8 years. When I walk into a financial institution with no job and walk out with a mortgage, that is the financial institution knowing that the EV that I generate turns into real dollars and acknowledging that "expected value" has real world value. :rolleyes:Quote:
Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson
Why is it that every one of your arguments, it is you and your view against the opinion of the entire rest of the world? :confused: It is always "you are right and the entire rest of the world is wrong". I have known you (online) for about 6 months, but I suspect this "you are right and everyone else is wrong" dilemma has been a lifelong thing with you.
"Trust me, I saw 18 yo's in a row"
"That's BS, no way you can count two tables at once! I demand proof!"
"You can't get a 10%+ advantage, show me the proof!"
"That never happened, I want concrete proof!"
"You're just gonna have to believe me, I saw someone roll 18 yos in a row! I saw it with my own two eyes, that's proof!"
Alan is mentally retarded.
I am sure this will fall on deaf ears (or I guess blind eyes) as far as Alan. He sees and acknowledges what he wants to. But, I have spent the last hour or so, looking over my records for 2017.
I had 7 days that I lost $8000 or more (4 of $10k).
Alan proposes a stop limit of $2000. I had 58 days that I was down $2000 or more after one or two sessions. 19 of those days I finished the day in the black. 6 of those days down $2000 early, I finished up $5000 or more!
The total win from those 19 winning days (after being down $2000 or more) was $62,637.50.
Let me say that again. I won $62,637.50 on those days that I was down $2000 or more and continued playing and turned into winning days. Had I stopped playing at some sort of artificial "stop limit" of $2000, those 19 days would have generated a loss of $38,000.
That is exactly a $100,000 swing. ($100,637.50 to be exact)
Now in addition to those 19 days that I was down $2000 and turned into winning days, I had 22 days that I was down $2000 and ended up losing for the day, but losing less than $2000. (Losses of somewhere between $1 and $1999). Those losses on these 22 days that were less than $2000 represent a win of $23,175.
So lets add that to the total. That is winnings of $123,812.50 after being down $2000 or more early in the day.
Now for the negative. 17 days that I was initially down $2000 or more, ended up with a total loss of more than $2000. The total losses greater than $2000 are $85,425.
Subtracting $85,425 (additional losses) from $123,812.50 winning....that is a grand total of a profit of $38,387.50 I profited $38,387.50 because I didn't employ a stop limit and kept playing..
Any questions Alan? I don't know how I can make it any clearer that when you are playing with and advantage (advantage player), you do not stop playing because of some short term losses. The more you play...the more you will win in the long term.
I expect you will come back with some sort of "voodoo" money management strategy that is either of your own or Singer's but you are Flat out wrong. When you are playing at an advantage, you want to get in as much play as you can. Stop limits are only beneficial for negative expectation play (losing players). Period! End of conversation.
Bullshit. No bank ever gave a mortgage based on EV. Stop your nonsense.