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I'd love to bet Rockies under when in Colorado; they always set the total high: today is 10.5
but I can't do it
it's just too freaky how many runs are scored there
last 5 games the actual runs scored were: 19, 11,15, 11 and 10
can't bet the over either. it's just too weird
First day since I got to the WSOP that I have no event to play.
Here's a pick:
**GAME 2** at Detroit (Fiers) +176 vs. Yankees (German)
Notes:
Detroit has played better recently. German has allowed 6 ER in two of his last 4 starts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Well, we made it to the ninth with a lead, so no matter the outcome, nice selection. This was a good value as a dog versus a non-premium pitcher
Good win. I liked this pick a lot. Should have bet more on it, because it was one of my favorite in awhile. +176 for a semi-hot Detroit team at home, with a pitcher who has averaged fewer than 3 ER in his past 5 starts, against a guy who has been bombed 2 of his past 4 times out.
I'll take that all day.
Lost 6 in a row, but then hit the nice +176 after a short break.
Record keeping:
Total through 5/25: 61-44-2, +19.464 units
5/26:
White Sox (H. Santiago) +103 at Detroit (F. Liriano) - WON +1.030
San Diego (Lyles) at Dodgers (Wood) - Under 7 -105 - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/26: 1-1, +0.030
5/27:
St. Louis (Weaver) +102 at Milwaukee (Suter) - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/27: 0-1, -1.000
5/28:
Mets (Conlon) at Atlanta (McCarthy) - Under 9 -108 - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/28: 0-1, -1.000
5/29:
Washington (Hellickson) at Baltimore (Bundy) - Over 9 -120 - LOST -1
at Baltimore -108 (Bundy) vs. Washington (Hellickson) - LOST -1
TOTAL 5/29: 0-2, -2.000
5/30:
Houston (Keuchel) +180 at Yankees (Severino) - LOST -1
TOTAL: 5/30: 0-1, -1.000
6/4:
**GAME 2** at Detroit (Fiers) +176 vs. Yankees (German) - WON +1.760
TOTAL 6/4: 1-0, +1.760
TOTAL 5/26-6/4:
2-6, -3.210 units
GRAND TOTAL: 63-50-2, +16.254 units
Overs: 2-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 36-24-2
Moneyline: 23-21 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
Pick on today's early game:
White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +151 at Minnesota (F. Romero)
Notes: Both pitchers got bombed last time out, but Lopez was doing well for several starts prior to that outing.
Ugh, up 2-0 in bottom of 8th with 2 outs and lose.
Well let's try to bounce back from that screw job.
Kansas City (Keller) at Angels (Heaney) - under 8 -110
That could have been a sweep with a nice big underdog. That +150 biting the dust hurt. But there was no doubt with the Under. Angels run production has been extraordinary, given all of their offensive stats. It may be hard to take Overs with them for awhile, as the value does seem to lie with their Unders. If you take an Over with them, you're usually paying a half-run premium.
Here's one starting in about 30 min:
Detroit (Boyd) at Boston (Beeks) - Under 10 -115
Notes: Beeks has been absolutely dominating the minors, with almost 13 K per 9 innings, over 10 starts. Boyd has been surprisingly good for the Tigers this year.
Damn I thought it was all over in the first inning there. Whew.
Talk about one I didn't deserve.
I thought Beeks would shut the Detroit bats down. Nope. He gave up 5 in the top of the 1st, and Boston came back with 1 of their own. Live betting had the game lined at 15.5 at that point.
The final? 7-2.
I'll take it.
Bottom of the eighth was a sweatbox, but all's well that ends well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
6/5:
White Sox (Rey. Lopez) +151 at Minnesota (F. Romero) - LOST -1
Kansas City (Keller) at Angels (Heaney) - under 8 -110 - WON +0.909
6/5 total: 1-1, -0.091 units
6/7:
Detroit (Boyd) at Boston (Beeks) - Under 10 -115 - WON +0.870
6/7 total: 1-0, +0.870 units
6/5-6/7 total: 2-1, +0.779 units
Grand total: 65-51-2, +17.033 units
Overs: 2-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 38-24-2
Moneyline: 23-22 (a good deal ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
at NY Mets (Degrom) -106 vs. NY Yankees (Tanaka)
Notes: Degrom has a 1.49 ERA. He has gone 7 straight starts allowing 1 ER or fewer, pitching 7+ innings in 6 of them. Tanaka has a 4.79 ERA and has given up 3+ ER in 5 of his last 6 starts.
Mets blew a lead yesterday.
Let's back them again.
at Mets (Matz) +144 vs Yankees (German)
Of course, the Mets blow leads in both games and lose, including 3-0 on Saturday.
Then I give up on them and they win a +200 on Sunday. Sigh.
One pick today. Taking a break from the WSOP til Saturday, so I should have a bit more time to make picks this week.
at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) +107 vs. Cubs (Quintana)
This'll be interesting. This is one of those long-term/short-term schizoid games. If you had put a number on this pre-season, Cubs would be much more heavily favored. But based on what's happened thus far and the two pitchers, Milwaukee should be favored.
Three comeback losses in a row.
Ugh.
Starts very soon:
Toronto (Jaime Garcia) at Tampa Bay (Stanek) - Under 8 -105
NOTES: This will be a "bullpen game" for Tampa. Stanek will likely not pitch more than 2 innings.
My Toronto under won, as did two unders I considered but didn't post (Washington and Cubs). I've considered 7 unders over the past few days, and all won easily. Unfortunately, I only picked that Toronto one. Guess it's time to focus more on unders.
Record keeping:
6/8:
at NY Mets (Degrom) -106 vs. NY Yankees (Tanaka) - LOST -1
6/9:
at Mets (Matz) +144 vs Yankees (German) - LOST -1
6/11:
at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) +107 vs. Cubs (Quintana) - LOST -1
6/12:
Toronto (Jaime Garcia) at Tampa Bay (Stanek) - Under 8 -105 - WON +0.952
TOTAL 6/8-6/12:
1-3, -2.048 units
Grand total: 66-54-2, +14.985 units
Overs: 2-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 39-24-2
Moneyline: 23-25 (ahead in units due to mostly underdogs)
Two home dogs today.
at Kansas City (Hammel) +108 vs. Cincinnati (Mahle)
at Detroit (Boyd) +133 vs. Minnesota (Berrios)
NOTES: Berrios went 9 innings in his last start. Mahle has never lasted longer than 6 1/3 innings, and has only gone 5 in his past 3 starts.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
I can't argue with either of these. You could make the case the wrong teams are favored.
Split 'em yesterday, but still profited.
Wish I was around earlier to make an under pick on Philly today, because I totally would've fired that one, and it's 2-0 in the 5th.
Anyway, here's another home dog:
at Oakland (Montas) +177 vs. Houston (Verlander)
NOTES: Superhuman Verlander has shown a few cracks lately, giving up 5 ER in his last two games (12 innings pitched). Montas is off to a spectacular start, though all 3 of his starts have been against bad or slumping teams.
Considering Tampa Bay today against the Yankees, will post it closer to game time if I decide to fire.
Well, I was right and wrong about that A's game.
Right that Verlander is looking more human (3 ER allowed today).
I was wrong that Montas is looking good. He got clobbered.
So that one's about to lose.
Decided I will again fire against German pitching for the Yankees, as there's been value fading him in the past 2 starts. Also, Snell has been lights out lately.
Tampa Bay (Snell) +154 at Yankees (German)
Been struggling with sides, so I'll take a break from them and return to what I've been doing best.
Washington (G Gonzalez) at Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) - Over 9.5 -105
Angles (Skags) at Oakland (Bassitt) - Under 8.5 -120
Washington starting soon.
Texas (Bibens-Dirkx) at KC (Junis) - under 9 +105
Two super last minute unders. Sorry you probably won't have time to bet them:
Philly (Eflin) at Washington (Roark) - Under 8.5 -115
at Yankees (Sabathia) vs. Tampa Bay (Stanek) - Under 7.5 +100 (8 -120 ok)
One more:
Baltimore (Cobb) at Atlanta (Newcomb) - Under 8.5 -114
Starts at 4:35 pm PDT
Been away from baseball handicapping for awhile due to the WSOP.
Here's one today:
White Sox (Rodon) +113 at Texas (Colon)
NOTES: LOL 45 year olds
Super last minute pick which nobody will have time to bet:
San Francisco (Holland) at Arizona (Godley) - Under 8 +105
Okay, let's try another under. Yesterday was a spectacular failure.
Atlanta (Anibal Sanchez) at Yankees (Loaisiga) - Under 9.5 -120
Angels (Heany) at Seattle (LeBlanc) - under 8.5 +100
Starting in 10 min:
Texas (Colon) at Detroit (Zimmerman) - Under 9 -110
6/13:
at Kansas City (Hammel) +108 vs. Cincinnati (Mahle) - LOST -1
at Detroit (Boyd) +133 vs. Minnesota (Berrios) - WON +1.330
Total: 1-1, +0.330 units
6/14:
at Oakland (Montas) +177 vs. Houston (Verlander) - LOST -1
Tampa Bay (Snell) +154 at Yankees (German) - LOST -1
Total: 0-2, -2.0 units
6/15:
Washington (G Gonzalez) at Toronto (Aaron Sanchez) - Over 9.5 -105 - WON +0.952
Angles (Skags) at Oakland (Bassitt) - Under 8.5 -120 - LOST -1
Total: 1-1, -0.048 units
6/20:
Texas (Bibens-Dirkx) at KC (Junis) - under 9 +105 - WON +1.05
Total: 1-0, +1.05 units
Total 6/13-6/20: 3-4, -0.668 units
6/22:
Philly (Eflin) at Washington (Roark) - Under 8.5 -115 - LOST -1
at Yankees (Sabathia) vs. Tampa Bay (Stanek) - Under 7.5 +100 - WON +1
Baltimore (Cobb) at Atlanta (Newcomb) - Under 8.5 -114 - LOST -1
Day total: 1-2, -1.0 units
6/30:
White Sox (Rodon) +113 at Texas (Colon) - LOST -1
Day total: 0-1, -1.0 units
7/1:
San Francisco (Holland) at Arizona (Godley) - Under 8 +105 - LOST -1
Day total: 0-1, -1.0 units
7/2:
Atlanta (Anibal Sanchez) at Yankees (Loaisiga) - Under 9.5 -120 - WON +0.833
Day total: 1-0, +0.833 units
7/3:
Angels (Heany) at Seattle (LeBlanc) - under 8.5 +100 - WON +1
Day total: 1-0, +1.0 units
7/6:
Texas (Colon) at Detroit (Zimmerman) - Under 9 -110 - WON +0.909
Day total: 1-0, +0.909 units
Total 6/22-7/6: 4-4, -0.258 units
Grand total: 73-62-2, +14.059 units
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 44-28-2
Moneyline: 24-29 (around even in units)
Starting 7:15 PT
Cubs (Quintana) at SF (Holland) - under 8 -115
7/10:
Cubs (Quintana) at SF (Holland) - under 8 -115 - WON +0.870
Grand total: 74-62-2, +14.929 units
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 45-28-2
Moneyline: 24-29 (around even in units)
WOW!!!
you're really crushing the unders
very impressive
Thanks. Didn't see any I liked today so I skipped a day.
Won't press it. Only going to bet where I believe there is value.
This one isn't quite as strong as my last 4 unders (all of which I really liked), but I still feel good enough to bet it:
Milwaukee (Miley) at Pittsburgh (Taillon) - Under 8 -115
Starting very soon
Forgot to post one over here yesterday (but posted it on my Pokerfraudalert site), where I should have won but Matheny's mismanagement cost me the win. 2-0 after 5, but 8-2 final on Under 9 in the Cards game. Matheny got fired afterwards!
The one the day before was also a screw job (Milwaukee/Pittsburgh) due to bad luck and mismanagement.
Here's today's.
Texas (Minor) at Baltimore (Castro) - Under 9.5 -113
Cincinnati (DeSclafani) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 -110
KC (B. Smith) at White Sox (Giolito) - Under 9.5 -121
Notes: Baltimore and KC will be pitching "bullpen games". Cardinals fired their manager and two coaches yesterday.
Texas game starting soon. The others start shortly after 11am PDT.
Damn, tough day. :(
when you lose 5 unders in a row, go with a side....
St. Louis (C. Martinez) +140 at Cubs (Hendricks)
Starting very shortly:
Min (Lynn) at KC (Junis) - Under 9.5 -115
You can't bet this except live now but:
Sea/White Sox Under 8.5 +115
Last minute
Bos/Bal Under 9 -120
Starting soon
Very similar to yesterday
Boston/Bal under 9.5 -102
KC (Junis) at Yankees (Gray) - under 9.5 -115
Philly (Pivetta) at Cincinnati (DeSclafani) - under 9 -125
Starting 4:05 PDT
Last minute pick:
Dodgers (Wood) at Atlanta (Fried) - under 9 -120
Record through 7/11: 73-62-2, +14.059 units
7/12
Milwaukee (Miley) at Pittsburgh (Taillon) - Under 8 -115 - LOST -1
7/14
Cincinnati (L. Castillo) at St. Louis (Flaherty) - Under 9 -119 - LOST -1 (posted on Pokerfraudalert only, but counting here too)
7/15
Texas (Minor) at Baltimore (Castro) - Under 9.5 -113 - LOST -1
Cincinnati (DeSclafani) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 -110 - LOST -1
KC (B. Smith) at White Sox (Giolito) - Under 9.5 -121 - LOST -1
7/19
St. Louis (C. Martinez) +140 at Cubs (Hendricks) - LOST -1
7/21
Min (Lynn) at KC (Junis) - Under 9.5 -115 - WON +0.870
Sea/White Sox Under 8.5 +115 - WON +1.150
7/23
Bos/Bal Under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
7/24
Boston/Bal under 9.5 -102 - LOST -1
7/26
KC (Junis) at Yankees (Gray) - under 9.5 -115 - WON +0.870
7/27
Philly (Pivetta) at Cincinnati (DeSclafani) - under 9 -125 - LOST -1
7/28
Dodgers (Wood) at Atlanta (Fried) - under 9 -120 - WON +0.833
TOTAL 7/12-7/28: 5-8, -3.444 units
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 50-36-2
Moneyline: 24-30 (around even in units)
Grand total: 78-70-2, +10.615 units
Two unders for today.
One at 4:35pm PDT, one at 5:10pm PDT.
Miami (Straily) at Atlanta (Allard) - Under 9 -125
Toronto (Gaviglio) at Oakland (Cahill) - Under 8.5 -115
Last minute
KC/White Sox under 9 -115
Slumping a bit recently.
If this continues, I may shut it down until early season NBA, for the most part.
In the meantime...
Toronto (Clippard) at Seattle (F. Hernandez) - Under 9 -115
NOTE: Toronto is doing a bullpen game.
Starting at 5:10 PDT
San Francisco (A. Suarez) at Arizona (Buchholz) - Under 8.5 -115
Slumping lately.
Starting at 1:10pm PDT
Detroit (F. Liriano) at Oakland (Cahill) - Under 8.5 -119
Boston (Pomeranz) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9.5 -120
Meant to pick this team matchup yesterday for an under, but was unavailable to do it, and of course it easily won.
Here it is again, where I still like it:
Arizona (Ray) at Cincinnati (Harvey) - under 8.5 +102
Yet another late inning screw job.
2-2 after 7 full innings.
1 run in top of 8th, 2 quick outs in bottom of 8th, with a man on first who was hit by a pitch to open the inning.
Then this:
Casali walked.
Barnhart doubled to deep center, Suárez and Casali scored. (4-3)
Hamilton singled to center, Barnhart scored. (5-3)
Hamilton stole second.
Peraza intentionally walked.
Votto singled to left, Hamilton scored, Peraza to second. (6-3)
Gennett grounded out to pitcher.
I lose yet another one where I'm several runs ahead going to the final innings.
Last week I had under 9.5 in a 3-1 game after 7, and also lost that.
Fun fact:
Last two picks needed to fade 5.5 runs and 4.5 runs in final 2 innings, and both lost. Terrible.
7/31
Miami (Straily) at Atlanta (Allard) - Under 9 -125 - LOST -1
Toronto (Gaviglio) at Oakland (Cahill) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
8/1
KC/White Sox under 9 -115 - LOST -1
8/2
Toronto (Clippard) at Seattle (F. Hernandez) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1
8/4
San Francisco (A. Suarez) at Arizona (Buchholz) - Under 8.5 -115 - LOST -1
8/5
Detroit (F. Liriano) at Oakland (Cahill) - Under 8.5 -119 - WON +0.840
8/7
Boston (Pomeranz) at Toronto (Stroman) - Under 9.5 -120 - LOST -1
8/11
Arizona (Ray) at Cincinnati (Harvey) - under 8.5 +102 - LOST -1
TOTAL 7/31-8/11: 2-6, -4.290 units
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 52-42-2
Moneyline: 24-30 (around even in units)
Grand total: 80-75-2, +6.325 units
Washington (Milone) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 +100
Doing these 2 Might shut it down for the season (mostly, at least) if this doesn't go well.
Boston (Porcello) at Philly (Pivetta) - Under 9 -125
Tampa (H Wood) at Yankees (Happ) - Under 8.5 -107
Justin Bieber is pitching, and he never loses. So I have to be the under.
Cleveland (Bieber) at Cincinnati (Stephenson) - Under 9 -115
Colorado (J. Gray) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8.5 -115
Here we go:
Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 (under 9 up to -125 ok) - starts 4:10pm PT
at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray) - starts 7:10pm PT
Looking at the KC under but not sure about it yet. (starts 5:10 PT)
Decided to skip the KC game. Will stick with the two I posted.
BTW, yesterday with Atlanta/Col Under 8.5, I first I got unlucky, then I got lucky.
3-2 after 8.
You knew what was going to happen.
3 runs in the top of the 9th, and its 5-3.
Then a leadoff single for Freeman. A strikeout, and then a stolen base and another out.
Then Inciarte hit a textbook base hit to right, which would have scored Freeman and beaten me, but it wasn't a base hit. 6'4" DJ LeMahieu leaped up and caught it over his head, and the game was over.
We have some unders today, but they start soon!
Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5
Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115
KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105
Won 7 of last 9 after an extended slump. 7-1 in last 8 unders, and the only loser was very close (Miami/Atl).
8/13:
Washington (Milone) at St. Louis (Mikolas) - Under 8.5 +100 - LOST -1
8/14
Boston (Porcello) at Philly (Pivetta) - Under 9 -125 - WON +0.800
Tampa (H Wood) at Yankees (Happ) - Under 8.5 -107 - WON +0.935
8/15
Cleveland (Bieber) at Cincinnati (Stephenson) - Under 9 -115 - WON +0.870
8/16
Colorado (J. Gray) at Atlanta (Teheran) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
8/17
Baltimore (Hess) at Cleveland (Carrasco) - Under 8.5 +105 - WON +1.050
at San Diego (Lucchesi) +120 vs. Arizona (Ray) - LOST -1
8/18
Miami (Chen) at Washington (J. Rodriguez) - Under 9.5 - LOST -1
Colorado (Senzatela) at Atlanta (Foltynewicz) - Under 8.5 -115 - WON +0.870
KC (Keller) at White Sox (Covey) - Under 9 +105 - WON +1.050
TOTAL 8/13-8/18: 7-3, +3.445
Overs: 3-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 59-44-2
Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)
Grand total: 87-78-2, +9.770 units
No picks today. I usually skip Sunday because it's the hardest day in MLB to handicap.
I didn't make picks on Sunday or Monday.
I'm coming roaring back today with three of them. And you even have time to bet them!
What a world!
Baltimore (Bundy) at Toronto (Gaviglio) - Under 8.5 -105 (9 up to -130 ok)
Cleveland (Bieber) at Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9 -105
Cincinnati (Romano) at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) - Under 9 -115
Lines on two of them are better on Bovada today, FYI.
Ruined a nice little run up by going 0-2-1 on Tuesday. No picks past two days if you noticed.
Can't find any unders I like today.
Soooo....
How about an over?
Overs are by no means my specialty, but here it is:
St. Louis (Mikolas) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Over 10.5 -115
MLB in 10 minutes:
KC/Pitt Under 8 -120 (7.5 -105 ok)
Mia/Cin under 8 -105 (8.5 -120 or better ok)
Starts 4:10 PT
8/21:
Baltimore (Bundy) at Toronto (Gaviglio) - Under 8.5 -105 (9 up to -130 ok) - LOST -1
Cleveland (Bieber) at Boston (Eovaldi) - Under 9 -105 - TIED
Cincinnati (Romano) at Milwaukee (Junior Guerra) - Under 9 -115 - LOST -1
8/24:
St. Louis (Mikolas) at Colorado (Senzatela) - Over 10.5 -115 - WON +0.870
9/19:
KC at Pittsburgh - Under 8 -120 - WON +0.833
9/20:
Cincinnati at Miami - Under 8 -105 - WON +0.952
TOTAL 8/21-9/20: 3-2-1, +0.655
Overs: 4-4
Spread (-1.5): 2-1
Unders: 61-46-2
Moneyline: 24-31 (a little below even in units)
Grand total: 91-82-3, +10.425 units
Cubs (Lester) at White Sox (Giolito) Under 9 -117
Starts 4:10 PT
Can you explain this to me a little bit.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Let us round down and say you are up 10 units ok?
Your grand total for the Season is 91-82-3 which in my mind is respectable.
However what is the point if you are up only 10 units for the season.
I suppose I could understand it if 1 unit equals 10,000 dollars or 100,000 dollars.
If 1 unit only equals 100 dollars or even 1000 dollars would someone like me be risking far too much in a 6 month window?
I mean it seems like you are at .5% return on your money or around that number.
I don't mind pounding a .5% advantage if I can roll the dollars in non stop and rotate millions through it but in my calculations for the whole season I can only get around 200k in action if I am betting units worth 1000 dollars each.
I guess it is a grind like anything else and more of a hobby?
Is this the norm with handicapping?
Can one who handicaps to make money expect about .5% return on their investment?
it's not a .5% return (approximately) it's a 5% return.
Dan didn't make a lot of bets. Yes, you have to bet pretty big to make a healthy income.
If a player gets 500 bets on 3 different sports in a year and he bets $5,000 per game his total action is $2,500,000.
a 5% edge will earn him $125,000 for the year.
most sharps will probably bet uneven amounts and plunge deeply when they have a very strong opinion in a game.
probably most will not have an edge as great as 5% (unless they are very selective and make many fewer bets in which case they would have to bet much larger to make the same amount) and will not make as much as that would indicate
still, they would see it as worth the effort to them.
actually Dan's ROI was a little over 6% if you don't consider pushes.
Dan's stats are impressive.
Alright I am learning here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Half Smoke
Take me to school and thank you!
I don't understand what a unit is or what it means I suppose.
I always thought a unit was equal to the size of one wager.
I honestly do not know or have enough knowledge about handicapping or sports betting in general.
I do understand that you would move your bets around but wouldn't that increase your + or - with total units won?
So 200 total bets and you are up 10 units... Ok I see how that would translate to a 5% return.
Say 1000 dollars a unit or bet. $200,000 in action and you are up 10 units meaning you are up 10,000 dollars for the season or total amount wagered.
Not sure where I came up with the .5% lol. I guess I didn't move the decimal point.
Would you say that a 5% return is the norm for a good handicapper or is that above average?
I haven't followed this thread or the others enough to know if he is giving up the information when to increase amount wagered on a specific event.
When you say the sharper players increase wagers or bet uneven does that make the variance go up?
Are those increased or uneven wagers going to have a much higher success rate?
If they do wouldn't you be better off to wait for the games that the sharps bet the higher amounts compared to the regular games?
For instance say that on normal games you only bet 1 unit.
On Special Games or what you might call Locks you bet 1.5 units.
If I only bet on the Special games will my return be greater at the end of the year?
Or do I need all bets combined to come out with a 3% to 5% return and less variance?
I suppose if you are getting into this you are going to get into the online books and take advantage of all the promotions which will increase your return?
a lot of questions on a complicated subject.
I hope this will help:
probably some but few play with the maximum efficiency indicated in my example
a lot are APs in other fields looking to supplement their income maybe by making 10 - 20K betting sports and they would be betting much less
there is no public documentation of how great an edge successful sports bettors have - it varies - and particularly correlates to the number of bets they make - the fewer the greater edge they are likely to have
I would say, that if you don't see yourself as having an edge of 4% or more it may not be worth the time
the most famous sports bettor of all time, Billy Walters, now in jail for insider trading, made thousands of huge bets in a year using runners and I would guess his edge was not huge. there is a great book about him where they change his name to Big Daddy, but everybody knows it's him. The book is called "Smart Money" by Michael Konik. the book is true but he fictionalized the names of people. From reading your post it sounds like you might greatly enjoy this book.
yes, if you make much bigger bets your variance will greatly increase
some sports bettors, particularly with horses try to get over with giant scores from extreme exotic bets such as the Pick 6 which will often pay hundreds of thousands. Some sports bettors try for huge parlays with big payouts too. If that's how they play it's difficult if not impossible to say what their edge is since the variance is gigantic. I heard a horse player who won a million on a pick 6 say that he proved himself and cemented his legacy as a great handicapper. Bullshit. It could of just been luck. Who knows?
yes, sharps try to score bonuses and promotions from online books. they also can get hassled by those same books especially by changing the odds on them before they can bet. mickeycrimm has a post indicating that Bovada did that to him and I'm pretty sure he just plays for fun. I've also heard that Vegas books will hassle sharps especially if they're betting big.
the most fascinating and difficult thing for a sports bettor to deal with is that his edge on any event is only theoretical (except in some very unusual instances such as arbritage) and cannot be proven. Nobody can prove that they have a 5% edge when they bet the Giants against the Eagles.
A sports bettor might find that his edge gets smaller or even disappears as he gets older and less sharp as just about everybody does. Or if he experiences great stress in his life for some reason.
When a sports bettor such as Dan says he is betting one unit that is just a way for his followers to figure out how he is doing, his edge. He knows they could be betting any amount so he doesn't say what that amount is. Those following can convert it to the size of their bets.
Sports betting is a fascinating subject.
Good Luck
Yep, i bet pretty small on Bovada, 20 to $100 a game. I'm not a real handicapper so i look for differences in the bovada lines from the Vegas Insider lines.
Texas (Sampson) at Angels (Pena) - Under 8.5 -115