Just to be clear...are you asserting that I and Rob Singer are the same person?
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Whether the same person using methods to change IP address and location (and there are new methods everyday) or some sort of accomplice that is fed information and what to say, makes no difference to me. It is a scheme trolls with an agenda use to gain credibility and there is far too much of it on this forum.
Todd Witteles (Dan Druff) who is supposed to be knowledgeable in this area, looks the other way because he enjoys this nonsense and this isn't a serious gambling related forum, it is simply a plaything for Dan.
Originally Posted by kewlJ
"At my level of play, I experience about 12-14 "five figure" days a year. That is combined, winning and losing. Without going back and looking, maybe 5-7 losing Five figure days and 7-9 winning five figure days. So they are routine. So on a Monday, I experience a five figure losing day and by the way a five-figure losing day doesn't mean that I sit down at a table and lose 10 grand. It's over 4 or 5 sessions.
So anyway, I lose five figures on a Monday. What would you have me do? Stop playing for the week? For the month? what? That's not going to help me get to the 80,000 rounds I need to get to for the year if I stop playing because of some artificial "stop loss limit". :"
Moses response:
"No. You select better games. Put yourself in a better position to win."
Moses, that sounds nice if you can find them, but and this is important what is the reality of better games? Even greater volatility especially if you are talking about short term "in hands played" time frames.
"Originally Posted by kewlJ
Long-term Moses. It's all about Long-term. :
Moses response:
"Lots of losers talking about long term. Get game. Let the game come to you.
The deer doesn't just jump in the truck and say "shoot me, right here."
Moses, the game edges for the player are very small, and there is plenty of volatility associated with the game. What is it that you cannot accept that players should be immune to short term swings? In the case of of higher limit players it is only natural that swings will be more profound. We are talking about shoe games with much bigger spreads.
Let's look at the singer situation, Dan Druff, an AP, who knows the math, absolutely knows the claims made by this troll are not true and not possible. Yet Dan allows Singer to make the claims. Year every once in a while Dan, chimes in with something like "you know what you are saying is impossible". But for every time Dan does that, he allows hundreds of times that Singer makes these claims. And Dan allows sock puppets, that he knows are sock puppets and/or friends connected to Singer to post, attempting to give credibility to such claims, which is the oldest trick in the troll handbook.
Now we have Moses, come along, another problem troll, known to have used sockpuppets….right Tater? And Todd/Dan does nothing. And we are just supposed to sit here and watch these nut jobs talk to themselves like mental patients.
No I am not, asshole. We have been over this. There are legal issues with me doing so.
I have told you where to find it and it is not just one source. Spend the $3 or $5 or what ever any of the different sites charge and you will see who Robert Argentino really is, if you want to know. BUT, you already know don't you, because you are a figment of his imagination.
"Coach Belly's" views mirror Singer's views on every single topic, since the day coach belly joined, right down to the dick challenge bullshit. You are pathetic Argentino. You are really very, very ill.
No fan of Coach Belly here, nor is he of me, but I have no doubt he is NOT Singer. He has been around the AC Forums for years and is very knowledgeable in that area. I personally have never observed Singer even bring up AC, probably because he never had the cash for enough fuel to get there.
I have no clue why Coach is so bitter here, but he’s actually, dare I say a quality contributor to the AC scene.
Coach belly is, of course, incorrect. The "Retro Road Trip" thread has standings from McCusker Reports featuring my winning the college football profit title three times, which nobody else had done. The "Tipsters or Gypsters?" thread under Sports and Sports Betting explains what the McCusker Reports were about. My finishes in the Heritage Sports Race to the Super Bowl can be verified by calling Heritage Sports and asking for the list of winners. I also PMed the link to Alan Mendelson. I happen to have the McCusker Reports, as did other posters here, which list multi-year records for handicappers. The Wise Guys standings are a matter of public record dating back 30 years.
So you couldn't find a single instance of me soliciting via PM or text or phone or email through 35 years of doing business and decades on LVA, LVAdvice, and here? Why do you think that is?
I thought you had some intellectual heft to you, but I was wrong. You're just lame. If you gamble like you do research, no wonder you have issues.
I couldn't find those standings, can you provide a link to that post?
Explaining what the McCusker Report is about is not providing standings or results.
Advising readers to call Heritage Sports is not providing results.
PMing Alan is not providing information to the forum.
Whatever information or records that is in your copies of the McCusker Reports hasn't been produced here.
The Wise Guys standings are available by subscription only, it's a private site.
The only results available to the public are from 2014.
CONTESTANT FINAL W-L
BOB DIETZ 17-18-1
You never post any results or standings that I can find, for whatever reason you have made an effort to avoid providing the info.
I appreciate your comments Box, but there is something fishy going on here. Too many people including Dan describe coach belly as "bitter" or "angry", same as Rob Singer. And coach belly backing up everything Singer says.
This is no coincidence.
I'll tell you what I will do. If coach claims there is no co-ordination, how about allow Dan Druff to release pms between the two of them? If I am proven wrong, I will gladly leave the forum. Dan can ban me. How about that coach belly you bitter old man?
LOL. The McCusker Report standings are in black and white in the "Retro Road Trip" thread. Bob Dietz's Integrity Sports. As I said, if your gambling prowess matches your research skills, I understand why you have issues.
Because the football season is finished, I imagine the vegaswiseguys.com defaulted to an old splash panel. The overall site is Playbook.com. We've gone through this before. All you have to do is call them. I apologize in advance if you have to pay ten bucks or something to access the final report. It may be free if you ask nicely. I don't know. Maybe you could wait until July and pick up the Playbook Football Annual at Barnes and Noble. No, better not do that. I think the price went up to twelve bucks. I suggest you call them and negotiate a discount. You know, coach, originally I thought you were a failed lawyer or (not failed) casino exec. But man, you increasingly sound as if you're 16 years old on your good days.
Meanwhile, if anyone besides coach wants to take a look at the final 2019 Wise Guys standings for last year, let me know. If you provide an email, I can send it to you. Note: I finished 21-15, losing both final week games by half a point each. Gambling-wise, I didn't actually lose them, but the contest is based on Monday night lines that are locked, so in the contest I lost them. I finished 19th out of 50. I think I already told regnis this stuff, so I'm not exactly shy about it. As a group, the 50 Wise Guys had an awesome record this year. Either the best or second best since I've been in the contest.
LOL...this is too good to be true.
Yes - I give Dan permission to release PMs between Rob Singer and myself,
as a matter of fact he can release any and all PMs I have ever sent or received on this site.
Before he does, tewlj, I'll let you exercise a cash buyout option,
that is to say you can buy your way out of this situation with cash,
paid to me in person.
If that's no good, then post the Singer/food stamps info that I have been bugging you about, and I'll release you from your pledge to leave the forum.
If neither of these options work for you, then what else is there to say but...
I looked again and couldn't find the standings.
Here's the beginning of the thread, if you click onto the double arrows in the blue box next to your name, it will bring you right to the post that you made starting the thread.
Reply with a quote from the subsequent post that contains the standings, so we can all take a look...or send the post # in the thread that has the standings.
Well, all good things have to come to an end. Can't keep my mouth shut about it anymore. The Confederacy of Dunces, Alan, Rob, Belly and Blackhole now have a new member to commisserate with, Moses. Something doesn't jive with him. He's showing weakness in blackjack and even more weakness in sports betting. He shows all the signs of a "poser pro."
Coach, an anonymous donor has contacted me. They are willing to pay the $3 for you to investigate Robert Argentino's foodstamp fraud. Just provide an address or GoFundMe page and the money will be sent.
You're on the list now Mickey;-)
He will have some dumbass Southern humor joke, maybe a goat fucking slur (due to the satisfaction he finds with animals), and of course he will claim to want to take you out to the woodshed with his old ass.
Almost everything doesn't jive with certifiable nuts. He has a history of bannings on forums due to craziness from what I have heard.
Yeah, I have known Moses for I don't know, maybe 6 years, since back on Norm's blackjack forum. I have known for a very long time that he is a "poser" for lack of a better word, meaning that his blackjack story doesn't add up. He may very well play blackjack, and play at an advantage, playing low limit single deck games in Reno. But he isn't making any kind of real money doing so. That is not contributing in any way to "supporting himself" as he claims.
His sports wagering claims? I have no idea. That is not my field. Based on that I know he has lied, or exaggerated about the blackjack end, it is hard to take anything he says seriously, but again that is not my field.
Despite that I have known his blackjack claims were nonsense, I never felt the need to call him out. That isn't my thing. I only call out players who are intentionally misleading other players and their doing so causes or can cause harm to those other players. Moses never reached that level, until this week, with his "no variance" diatribe.
Moses is a professional blackjack players about the same as Rob Singer is or ever was a professional VP player. Never happened! That is why it is so funny that Singer has hitched his wagon to team Moses, claiming that my "peers" don't believe me. No offense to moses, but he is hardly my peer. There are a few members here that even though they may not support themselves from blackjack play or don't any longer, I do consider my peers, but Moses isn't among them.
I know what my "peers" think of my blackjack knowledge and experiences. They may not all appreciate my extra-curricular forum activity, but most of my peers have little doubt about my blackjack experiences, ability and journey. Now let's compare that to real VP or machine type AP's and what they think of Rob Singer. Near as I can tell, it is almost unanimous that he is a complete joke. (plus pretty ugly, inside and out ;))
Coach belly obsessing about Singer's food stamp "situation" smells of coach belly playing his gottch ya games that he is so known for. Coach keeps carefully using the term "banned from the food stamp program", giving me the feeling if someone posts the details, (which in all honesty I don't know the details), but if it says he was disqualified for 5 years or 10 years or whatever the penalty is, instead of banned, coach belly is going to jump up in his usual fashion screaming "gottch ya".
Coach belly, I still belong to an actual Blackjack forum where KJ was barred. I do not know all of the in's and outs and behind the scenes actions that took place and I don't care. All I know is that forum itself took a huge hit for the worse in the process and as always the remaining membership were the real losers, especially the new players. KJ, has a saying about Vegas BJ games, "what they lack in quality
they make up for in quantity" any knowledgeable player knows when it comes to blackjack forums KJ posts are all about quality first. Membership should be glad that he is here, not trying to encourage him to leave.
I am using a direct quote from a post that you made...
You don't know the details? Here you imply that you purchased the details...
But OK...we can stipulate that any publicly available information that you purchased, regarding Rob Singer and either his banning or disqualification from the food stamp program will suffice to destroy his credibility.
Now please provide a link to the website whose services you purchased in this regard, so that I can purchase the same information and post it here.
You should be anxious for me to post this reputation-destroying information, but you are way too reluctant to facilitate this exercise...you're stalling.
Why?
Coach belly, I don't care about Argentino's Food stamp abuse, that you seem to be obsessing about. Just the same as I don't care all much about his bankruptcies, evictions, or other judgements. Nor do I want to hear any of the different excuses from This person. My only purpose for bringing it up is so people can look for themselves at this publicly available information and see who this person really is. And it is not who he says he is, before, during or after his million dollar video poker career.
Look yourself, do your own homework and stop playing your coach belly games.
Like you, Micky. I am my own person. Don't need to belong to any clubs. Don't need to be a Pro. Just like to make money. And that's taking winning. It's a little hard to spend a congeniality trophy.
I don't like KJ. Never did. Never will. HE's as phony as a $4 bill.
KJ is quite a fictional character. Beside that entertaining façade he himself admits how very important his peers are to him. The "boy genius" of blackjack is just another inept player who lacks discipline and calls his mistakes variance. Don't be seduced by the cloak and dagger and hidden mirror tricks. He wants/needs acceptance so bad he is willing to create a genuine concern as a person for newbie's to embrace. Don't be seduced by the cloak and dagger and hidden mirror tricks.
Now I've called you out in about any way, shape, or form and you always have an excuse to back down. You seem to think you know something about me? I know nothing about you. But I'm certain I could tear you a new asshole at blackjack or in the parking lot. But you won't. You will just keep hiding behind your own little façade in your own little make believe world. So who is the poser? Let's meet and find out. For once in your pathetic life...back up your words.
That's why I need the link to the website that you used, so I can get the same report that you did.
You should be anxious to supply the link, but instead you're stalling.
That means that you either did not purchase a report, or whatever report you purchased did not include any reference to food stamp abuse.
Moses, can you accept that both of you are talking about two completely different games? This is what you wrote in post #3;
" I know nothing about the shoe game. But, from what I've read, KJ does a better job than most when it comes to reducing variance. Still, his swings are volatile."
I didn't start this. KJ did. But I will for damn sure finish it. All HE needs to do his step up for once in his pathetic life and show everyone he is not letting his alligator mouth overload his hummingbird ass. Sorry, that's actually Mickey's line. But a great one.
I would think bouncing to other tables avoiding negative decks would reduce variance. No? The negative effect is around 42% wins and 49% losses. An even to TC 2 deck is more like 48.5% wins and 51.5% losses. Hell yes, everyone gets those 17s vs dealer 18s etc etc. gets those 20s only to lose to a dealer 4 hand 21. But you've got to be really fucking up to lose $29k in week. THAT is not variance. That is being a dipshit.
You don't go from losing 58 more $500 bets than you win in a week. You don't win 220 more $500 bets in five months. KJ is bullshitting everyone. I can't/won't believe including you. And why? Because he so desperately wants to be accepted by his peers. Makes me want to puke.
I had a pretty rough day today but this just made me laugh out loud for the first time all day.....JFC, what a dumb fuck Moses the Bitch is lol...no wonder he drives a $4K piece of shit lolololololololol....then later he thanks you for pointing out what a dumbfuck he is too, lmao
First off. Let's be clear here. I didn't choose either of you two idiots. You chose me. In the same way you injected yourself with so many others. Don't believe me? Just go read their prior posts.
So now you're running because I didn't back down. I'm the guy in the street saying “come on out, let see what you got – back up your words.” You're the wimps in the house still playing your little game of insults while hiding behind your wife(s).
This makes me the crazy guy? No. It makes me one of those American who sink in their teeth to trouble seekers like you and don't let go. IF only more weren't so passive, then big mouths like you two wouldn't exist.
Anyway you slice it. You're still the coward in the house. Prove me wrong?
Come on out and play. I know. You won't. So we'll keep hurling insults since that is the height of your capabilities. If that's all you have "in" you. Then so be it.
I like my car. I don't need to impress anyone and certainly not you. Once you make your first million you understand money. Once you can afford to lose your first two million - you understand life.
Btw. Bosox. Congrat's on Celtic's win tonight. Can you believe the line dropped to -3.5? Sweeeet!
As long as you like it, that`s all that matters :).....I`m fairly certain I could pimp slap you from one end of a room to another but what`s the point?....that would be like me taking financial advice from someone that even a Martian doesn`t understand and butchers the English language like a Benihana chef :o
Just so you know who your dealing with. This is everyday stuff in my world. Casinos are full of rats like you. Sometimes they choose to inject themselves into my life and I try to ignore. Sometimes, like you, they don't want to be ignored so it has to go to another level.
Now, two people chose to mess with my family and hurt my kids. One is dead. The 3 V's and a little bit of me didn't work out so well for him. The other I chased for three years before I caught him on main street and made him look like a fool in front of his brother and townspeople. Oh yeah, the self righteous bastard also claimed he could do some stuff to me. But when I finally caught him? All he could was stand there and ball.
But if you want to bring in on? Fine. Anytime. I've got nothing to lose and I really don't give much of a fuck. So bring it on PIMP!
I believe your better than hiding behind your little words on a forum.
You both should try your tough talk in a casino. There are hundreds of guys like me that would make quick work out of you. But if you get some kind on an ego rush by writing your worthless insults on a forum? Then so be it. Somebody has to be the nerds. It might as well be you two dipshits.
Trying saying in person to people what you write on a forum. Let's see how long you last.
I think you the one "trying" to be the tough guy. In person? My quarter says not at all. When you look down and finally discovered you've grown some balls, then you let me know. I won't be hard to find. I guess you got me. I can't battle a bag of invisible air. Congratulations.
How did I draw first blood? I didn't even know you existed until you made yourself known to me.
My poor balls keep getting closer and closer to the water every year. I have no interest in finding you. I try not to associate with crazy. However, I'm pretty sure you're not so froggy in person. Otherwise, at your age you'd be in jail or dead. Heck, you might even be a good ol' boy.
So, basically, you are admitting defeat in the wit department. Now you want to take it to the brawn department. Typical of someone that loses in the wit department. I have no interest winding up in jail over someone like you.
So now feel free to run around and make physical threats and other nonsense. I don't participate in that game. You want me to stop responding? Don't address me further.
So you're not answering? I really don't understand the thrill your getting off on with the internet thing you're trying to do. But I enjoy laughing, joking, and having a good time. But there is often someone who feels the need to start poking at demons. Why would you do that? Well, now you've got one. In that scenario, I'm considerably more froggy in person. My age? Don't let that hold you back. I was always involved in athletics and now have more time to work out than ever. Never been in jail. Maybe a speeding ticket in the last 10 years. Obviously, I'm not dead. And not afraid to die either.
I've been in more altercations in the last 8 years than 40 years prior combined. So you think you can intimidate me? Think again. Now answer your damn PM.
I would like to know what site was used to research Singer as well. I don't know why that request is unreasonable?
How many people gave money to pay for this?
I know some people may already subscribe to sites like this and they can look up anyone they wish.
So you think you're being witty? Quite frankly, I don't see the point. You really don't want any trouble. You just want to talk shit. NO? Okay. Seems like a bit of a waste of time to me. But whatever. Now that I see you for what/who you are? No, I don't admit defeat.
You want me to stop responding? Don't address me further.
I look at it this way....I read what people write and decide for myself what I think of them. If it all adds up, then it all adds up. Oftentimes though, that's not the case.
For example, if you have someone talking about different AP plays they've been on....but then later on, they're talking about dice-influencing (which in it of itself I wouldn't say makes someone non-AP). The person doesn't know what their EV is, or they may say some dumb shit about how they martingale their bets or press, or talk about karma or the vibe of the table, or some other nonsense. At that point, you can tell the person is full of shit in one way or another, because an actual AP wouldn't be doing dumb shit like that. And, of course, this guy has no concept of EV, variance, etc. and can't name any stats about his game.
Compare that to the guy who may also claim to be a dice-influencer, but he can say "Over XXX in-casino rolls, these are the probabilities for each dice roll (2, 3, 4...12). The bets I make are X, Y, and/or Z [depending on point]. For every 100 throws, my EV is $XYZ and my standard deviation is $ABC." Now, he may not be successful, but you can at least tell he has his shit together because he knows what's important and going about it the proper way. Obviously looking at a few posts it may be difficult to gauge, but when you can read hundreds or thousands of someone's posts, then it paints a clearer picture.
Look at Rob Stringer for example. All of his posts add up -- I mean, they're all absolutely retarded, but they're consistently retarded. He claims he was an AP and lost a million dollars. His main game was, supposedly, the triple payouts on quad 7's at the Tropicana Express in Laughlin at the $0.50, $1, and $2 denom (why the fuck would you play 50c or $1 when you can play $2?). After that he claims to have won a million bucks using his systems....yet, he can't name a single damn thing about them. Someone who had their shit together would be able to say, "There's a X% chance I have a winning session, Y% chance I have a losing session. My average session win is $Z. Etc..." among a bunch of other stuff. Plus, if you had a winning system like that, any normal person would play it for AT LEAST 6 months non-stop, make a few million, then retire...instead he makes a million over 10 years, only playing on weekends? Right.
Now look at kewlj. I don't know if he's doing the things he's saying he's doing. Maybe he's an 85 year old Russian living in Siberia or some shit and it's all completely made up. I've never played near him nor met him (AFAIK), and I have no way to verify he's playing the way he's playing. But, everything he says actually adds up. The swings he talks about are real. He's not claiming a million dollar a year profit. He's not saying he plays with nearly no variance, some crazy 5% edge on card counting, some bull-shit 17-level-side-count system, or whatever the hell some of the idiots on BJTF (like Tthree and ZMF) pretend they're doing, or anything else that's wonky. Based on my experience and talking to other card counters, kewlj's "story" adds up in my book.
Moses on the other hand, is an unhinged lunatic who pretends he can play with little or no variance, supposedly. He "attacks" someone for losing ~$30k in a week or however long that period was, showing he really doesn't know what he's talking about. It's like talking to someone who doesn't know anything about AP -- maybe my parents ask how my trip was, I say I was up a few thousand at the start, started losing, and ended down about $5k....and they're like "OMG that's terrible! Why didn't you just quit when you were up TWO THOUSAND DOLLARS??? Wow that's just crazy you'd keep gambling after being up so much, wow, so dumb to do that!" But my parents aren't APs and they don't pretend to be APs, and over the last several years, they've finally figured out "it's not a guarantee....and if you have an advantage, may as well keep playing, whether you're up or down".
I actually know an AP who was like that (was on a BJ team with him). At the start, everything seemed kinda normal. But a few months later on, all he wanted to do was "book a win" and also use "stop loss limits" on some stuff. Unfortunately he was the manager of the team, but once he started getting his crazy ideas going....people were like, no -- this is fucking retarded (and it was), and by golly -- the team disbanded. Anyone I've talked to since basically has the same thoughts. I wonder how his 4'th BJ team is going?
I play my game or I don't play. I still find about 70K hands a year.
A review of my last few weeks of sessions; 77 wins 55 losses 38 ties/Interruptions. The represented a profit of $5,963. There was a stretch of 800 hands in a short week where I lost $1435 and went 4-8-1. But I quickly identified and corrected a flaw in my game.
Granted, this is mostly green chips. But take figure x 4 if it were black. Making around $50k a year may not sound like much to the Pros. However, that's $250k over 5 years expense free. Key word is PLAYING. IF I were to play black chips I'd make $100K in 6 months and NOT be allowed to play. Then I'd have to travel. More income comes from sports bet than blackjack. I need to be in Nevada about 8 months out of the year. So, if KJ and RS are so certain my game is flawed, quit talking shit and play me.
I never look beyond the session I'm playing. I refuse to refer to a loss as a long run goal. If I did? I'd get soft. Plus the opponent wins by forfeit. How can one plan on long term under that scenario?
Variance: My minimum bet results may be slightly better than most because my large bet frequency is minimal by comparison. Maybe this is why I don't have these large fluctuations. Plus my game is designed with a defensive strategy. Control the game, don't make mistakes, and don't get too far down and a comeback isn't necessary. I don't believe this variance monster follows around me from casino to casino.
My mistakes represent far more volatility...and that's a pisser.
I will only touch on this because I know it will drive you nuts. The percentage count is designed pull more quality hands out of less pen. Perhaps a Don S/Thorp approach as includes both philosophies.
A column count will work with less pen but it takes more hands to get the same profit. Although the deck compositions are maximized, The frequency is less because they are also shuffled away.
No. I don't believe you can attribute variance to losing $29k in a week. Piss poor play? Maxpens monkey wouldn't play that bad.
If a week is not enough then what is an acceptable amount of time to lose 29K?
How do you stop it from happening?
Do you use stop win/stop loss tactics?
It would seem to me that the only way you can truly know you are stopping a losing streak is to quit playing forever.
RS. What is with the video for the 3rd time? Okay, I get it. You don't like me. Now let's all have a big cry over that. Boo fucking whoo. But you were a dealer. I can't believe you never saw people looking for trouble who didn't find it eventually. This isn't Bingo in the basement of a church. My saying is "one doesn't have to look for trouble, it comes soon enough." Now maybe it's not that way where you reside. But if you are not ready in this jungle the elements will eat you alive.
Good questions Mickey: I went back 3 years and didn't have a loss of $3k. Had some $5k wins though. Granted, I'm playing green chips. But even if they were black I wouldn't have had a $10k losing week.
For me. It's game selection. I play my game or I don't play at all. I still get in 20 sessions a week easily which works out to around 70k hands per year.
Yes, it's based on casino tolerance rather than my comfort level. I can PM you this info if you're interested. For instance, if you were the house against me. We could play all day because I know you wouldn't ban me.
LOL. Yes, It would certainly seem that way. I'm always working to improve my game. For instance, Bosox was adamant about Insurance. It was not a vital part of my game. However, his insistence forced me to take a 2nd look. Then, I built my entire game around insurance. Well, I didn't need to go to that extreme because my large bets are far less frequent than in his game. So I met in the middle so to speak. Thus I make more money. Thanks Bosox.
Another example 10vs10 is a real pisser with a large bet out. I talked to Freighter to see what he was doing. I didn't do exactly what he does but the conversation sparked in my brain that improved my percentage greatly on that hand.
The tools today work greatly to our advantage to improve ones game. But people don't use them for the most part. I'm an absolute nut about practicing. Thus not too much surprises or shakes me in a casino. My saying is "if you can't be Verite in the quiet of your own home. How if the blue fuck do you plan to win in the hustle and bustle of a casino"?
Just for the record, I blew more than that gambling on -EV games in three days in Monti Carlo. Combine that with the cost of staying and having most of our meals at the Metropole hotel, -EV begins the moment you pull up and step on the sidewalk. Yet, if you want to get the feeling of what it’s like to be treated like royalty in a royalty setting, it’s a must visit. (never went back)
Kewlj, you and your minions are complete mental frauds. I'm thinking Dan should realize by now, how you by yourself could destroy a forum. Of course, how many more minions you could drag here and have personal conversations with is unknown.
I suppose, as the "sports guy," it's my fiduciary duty to make a comment here, so I will.
I have a real difficult time when a nonchalant comment is made like "sports betting providing more income than blackjack" or something in that neighborhood. There seems to be some general public myth that doing some conscientious data mining and trend analysis can yield a modest but consistent profit across many sports consistently for years.
That is a myth. It's more likely true that absolutely religious numbers monitoring and arbitrage can yield profits, but even that is rare, and it requires 24/7 monitoring of multiple shops and offshores, using every tool at one's disposal.
There are folks who have done rigorous, massive data mining for 20 years who have probability training, programming training, and access to the best savants in the business. Very few win at one sport, much less across multiple sports for multiple years. Sports gambling is not some throwaway hobby that will yield consistent positive results if you halfway know what you're doing.
Having said that, it's possible somebody simply consults a person or team of people and uses their plays. In my admittedly dated and out-of-left-field estimate, I think roughly a hundred individuals or teams of individuals in this country can actually win long term at sports betting. Anyone who says they can do that may indeed be one of those hundred or so. And sometimes somebody or some team pops up out of nowhere (like a Chinese team of programmers going after college hoop totals a couple of years ago), and people plug into them and piggyback because all security has leaks, and the sports books go into temporary shock, but those events are quite rare.
Sports betting is not like blackjack card counting. There is no formula for success. I think suggesting there is does people a disservice, especially now that legalization is here.
If you'll notice, I tried to help Argentino when he was handicapping here. I did not say one negative thing, and I strongly suggested he can the parlays. I realize that seemed pretty weird. It's my rule. I try to help everybody against casinos vis-à-vis sports betting. If someone can do it, short or long term, more power to them. So I'm not here to get into some ego-driven pissing contest. It just must be said that winning across multiple sports long term is exceedingly difficult -- I really do not even try to do it. Roughly 80% or more of what I wager is college football, and that's counting futures in other sports. So I ask that people turn a jaded eye to throwaway lines regarding winning at sports as if it's a acquirable skill.
Excellent post redietz. I’ve just started getting into sports betting since it’s become legal in my area. I agree with everything you’ve said. I’ve bought some sports betting books and read many articles on the internet on sports betting. And I joined The Action Network, which didn’t cost much and has been interesting. With all this information, I’ve lost money, although not much, in my first six months of trying this.
However, I did well with the Super Bowl but only because I took high probability bets, with low returns. I won all of them, but didn’t make much but it was a good exercise. The four prop bets I bet on were: 1) Tom Brady not scoring on a rushing Td, 2) no defensive player getting two interceptions, 3) no safety, 4) no team scoring 4 consecutive times in a row. All of them paid off, which is what I expected. I put $100 on each one and won something like $50, which I thought was a pretty good return for high probability events occurring.
I’m sure Vegas sets the odds on these bet based on the probability of them occurring so in the long run when I lose one, I know I’ll lose a lot.
Question: This seems like a good strategy for sports betting...bet on high probability events, with low returns. For example, money line bets on college home football teams that are favored by three tds. I’m sure this has been tried before and it probably fails long term.
What’s your thought on this strategy?
I have never recommended anyone come to this forum. I would not feel comfortable recommending this forum in it's current shit-hole, hate induced condition. The closest I got was asking Richard Munchkin to visit and comment on a specific topic, tracking multiple tables. I was not surprised when munchkin took a look at this forum and decided he wanted no part of it.
While I have never recommended nor encouraged anyone to come to this forum, I suspect that fact that I participate here has influenced a few legitimate players to visit. Unfortunately most aren't here long and are quickly driven away once they experience what this site is.
And on the flip side, There are people that have a rather strong dislike for me, and I know for a fact, some of them have shown up here because I am here, so it has worked both ways. Unfortunately hate being such a strong emotion, the haters end up staying around.
Compliments like this coming from such an ass-hole like you mean nothing. A person with such mental and security problems like yourself only confirm your opinions should be considered worthless. I'm from the old school, and have a problem trusting the opinions of a person uncertain of their own gender.
This whole post is just another confirmation of how far you're willing to go with bullshit. You're the biggest fraud on here and can't take being called out on it. Did you give the link to Coach to look up for himself what you claim you found on Rob? No, of course not cause you're a bullshitting fraud.
Did you tell Dan to publish Coach's PM's so you could live up to your promise and leave here. No, of course not, you're a fucking fraud.
It's obvious why you get thrown out of forums. You're a fucking fraud, bullshitting, homo. Maybe you'll choke on a big load and really kick the bucket, not like your fraud claim of dying in the past. Shut the fuck up with your fantasy gambling escapades.
I am quite certain of my gender. I am a gay man, just like millions before me, including some of the top men in military, science, mathematics, history and yes, even the arts. :)
You just proved what a homophobic asshole you are. Using a term like "old school" doesn't make bigotry against people that are different than you, whether race, religion nationality, gender, sexual preference acceptable. You are basically Hitler trying to justify your hate and bigotry.
I never in my life heard of anyone I know lose $29K in a week in any endeavor. Let alone blackjack. I learned long ago not to participate in a bad game. I lost $20K on Black Monday after saving my first $100k from nothing. THAT was very difficult to take. I remember standing at a pay phone trying to sell on Friday and the market closed before I could do it. Ten minutes away from ducking what took me at least a year to save. Those were hard earned dollars. I'm sure if you worked in those mines in Colorado, you know all about hard earned dollars.
But in blackjack, it's one loss after another after another. Pretty soon the average person begins to chase. Only it's after a few hands for most. I see it everyday. Some guy drives in from Klamath Falls with HiLO and an aggressive bet spread. HE's broke by noon. I'm thinking, you drove all way and that's all you brought with you? No money management skills whatsoever.
Now imagine losing 58 more large bets hands of $500 than you lose in just 5 days. For my game, I'm surprised if I make 100 large bets in a week. But KJ speaks to a stair step approach so he is even losing more hands than that....and he avoids the negative decks which pull down the minus win/loss percentage considerably. To suggest that any normal person could bend over and take it that many times is beyond a stretch of the wildest imagination. Again, those are supposed to be winnable hands. No?