Professional Sportsbetting

Other than betting systems and obviously BS like EvenBobs roulette delusions, I don't rule anything out as beatable with an advantage. Sports, Horses, tiddlywinks, it doesn't matter. You can oftentimes tell after a 3-minute conversation, or what someone says in their posts if someone is legit beating a game of chance. Even if you don't quite understand exactly what they are doing you pick up on things that do and don't make sense.

Occasionally, whenever there's something ambiguous such as handicapping there are a few people that it's hard to tell given omitted information. Eventually, they say/post something that puts them in the believable or the non-believable category.

I put up this GWAE podcast with Plus EV Analytics early in the thread but here it is again:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...U49Yuq5xIBNSEv

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Plus EV's results are actually pretty good if we are to believe what others like Spanky and Krak have said. THEY SAY THEY ONLY MAKE A BUCK OR TWO PER ONE HUNRED WAGERED

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I posted hoops picks at WOV - see link - user name lilredrooster - 18% r.o.i.. - based on $1,100 bets - all of the picks are time stamped and documented - thousands of views - see link - I did about the same on a different site on a different year - don't feel like digging it up

granted only 34 picks at the link - about 80 total including the other site

still, a buck or 2 on a hundred - that doesn't do anything for me at all



https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...s-2017-2018/9/

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Plus EV's results are actually pretty good if we are to believe what others like Spanky and Krak have said. THEY SAY THEY ONLY MAKE A BUCK OR TWO PER ONE HUNRED WAGERED

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I posted hoops picks at WOV - see link - user name lilredrooster - 18% r.o.i.. - based on $1,100 bets - all of the picks are time stamped and documented - thousands of views - see link - I did about the same on a different site on a different year - don't feel like digging it up

granted only 34 picks at the link - about 80 total including the other site

still, a buck or 2 on a hundred - that doesn't do anything for me at all



https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...s-2017-2018/9/

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What those guys are talking about is millions of dollars worth of bets that showed an R.O.I of 1 to 2%. The best really can't do any better long term than about 56% winners. That don't return 118%. I think a lot of sports bettors can cherry pick out some winning streaks thru a hundred picks. If you can do that thru 3400 picks you'll go down as the greatest sports bettor of all time.

I remember a long time ago there was this guy that ran some tout sheet, I think it was called the Gold Sheet. He made a challenge to all handicappers. They would all participate at the same time. Anyone who could pick 70% winners thru 100 picks he would pay them $100,000.

A dozen or so touts took him up on his offer. When the contest got going they started dropping like flies. The last one left quit at about the 30th pick. No one even came close.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

I remember a long time ago there was this guy that ran some tout sheet, I think it was called the Gold Sheet. He made a challenge to all handicappers. They would all participate at the same time. Anyone who could pick 70% winners thru 100 picks he would pay them $100,000.

A dozen or so touts took him up on his offer. When the contest got going they started dropping like flies. The last one left quit at about the 30th pick. No one even came close.

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With 1,267,650,600,228,230,000,000,000,000,000 possible outcomes for the 100 picks, I suppose rounding up enough touts to get one with at least 70% of the picks would be somewhat arduous, and the split amongst the touts participating in the play would be virtually zero.

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by mickeycrimm

Plus EV's results are actually pretty good if we are to believe what others like Spanky and Krak have said. THEY SAY THEY ONLY MAKE A BUCK OR TWO PER ONE HUNRED WAGERED

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I posted hoops picks at WOV - see link - user name lilredrooster - 18% r.o.i.. - based on $1,100 bets - all of the picks are time stamped and documented - thousands of views - see link - I did about the same on a different site on a different year - don't feel like digging it up

granted only 34 picks at the link - about 80 total including the other site

still, a buck or 2 on a hundred - that doesn't do anything for me at all



https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...s-2017-2018/9/

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What those guys are talking about is millions of dollars worth of bets that showed an R.O.I of 1 to 2%. The best really can't do any better long term than about 56% winners. That don't return 118%. I think a lot of sports bettors can cherry pick out some winning streaks thru a hundred picks. If you can do that thru 3400 picks you'll go down as the greatest sports bettor of all time.

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agreed - I did what I did making one pick a day - don't believe I could match it if it had been 150 picks - I quit when I was way ahead because I knew I couldn't keep it up

if I had to make 5 picks a day I don't believe I could be profitable - or if I could it would be by a tiny %

to me - the most important thing is this - for someone who wants to do well - not necessarily become a high paid pro

if you have just one good angle - that may fit only a few games - and as you say "cherry pick" only those bets where you have the strongest opinion - a bettor can do well

I would be willing to bet just about any good handicapper if he bet only one bet per day - the bet where he had the strongest opinion - would do way better than if he fills his card

re r.o.i. - a bettor who makes 5 weak bets of $100 per day will profit way, way less than a bettor who makes one strong $500 play per day

of course, any bettor who makes 5 picks in a day will not have the same degree of confidence on every bet - some low confidence - and prolly at least one strong confidence

that's my belief -


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EV Analytics shows that they lost 1.36% for an entire year with their "Bat X" picks

with their main picks they had one year with only a .45% r.oi. and one year with only a .25% r.o.i.

how many people are going to be happy with that service if they go thru a whole year with performances like that_________?

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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EV Analytics shows that they lost 1.36% for an entire year with their "Bat X" picks

with their main picks they had one year with only a .45% r.oi. and one year with only a .25% r.o.i.

how many people are going to be happy with that service if they go thru a whole year with performances like that_________?

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Questions: Were these lines easily obtainable or did they move to unbetable quickly? At its worst, how many units did this fall behind?

Assuming 2% here's a rough estimate. Feel free to correct me.

On average to make 100k per year you would have to get in about 1,800 bets at around $2800 per game at 5 games per day every day.

I'm not sure exactly how practical that is, but it sounds doable. Could one do this via sports betting apps and known offshore joints from home?

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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EV Analytics shows that they lost 1.36% for an entire year with their "Bat X" picks

with their main picks they had one year with only a .45% r.oi. and one year with only a .25% r.o.i.

how many people are going to be happy with that service if they go thru a whole year with performances like that_________?

.

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Questions: Were these lines easily obtainable or did they move to unbetable quickly? At its worst, how many units did this fall behind?

Assuming 2% here's a rough estimate. Feel free to correct me.

On average to make 100k per year you would have to get in about 1,800 bets at around $2800 per game at 5 games per day every day.

I'm not sure exactly how practical that is, but it sounds doable. Could one do this via sports betting apps and known offshore joints from home?

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Axel - I can't answer your question - that would have to be answered by them

but again - you can't assume 2% as they have had much worse years and also some much better years

but I would guess that every online book would limit a bettor so he couldn't make bets like that - maybe he could in Vegas at the brick and mortar shops - but I'm not at all sure about that either

Axel - how would you feel if you did all that work to get all of those bets down - and paid them - and their r.o.i. was only 0.25% for your first year using them - as it was one year in their main picks______?______or lost 1.36% for a WHOLE YEAR in their "BatX" picks_________?




one more thing - Mickey mentioned my 34 picks - I have only publicly posted dozens of picks in a thread twice

the other time - see link - I posted 41 picks with a 17% r.o.i. -

but again, I'm not saying I could do that for a great many picks - just sayin





http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...98#post2870298


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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Originally Posted by AxelWolf

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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EV Analytics shows that they lost 1.36% for an entire year with their "Bat X" picks

with their main picks they had one year with only a .45% r.oi. and one year with only a .25% r.o.i.

how many people are going to be happy with that service if they go thru a whole year with performances like that_________?

.

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Questions: Were these lines easily obtainable or did they move to unbetable quickly? At its worst, how many units did this fall behind?

Assuming 2% here's a rough estimate. Feel free to correct me.

On average to make 100k per year you would have to get in about 1,800 bets at around $2800 per game at 5 games per day every day.

I'm not sure exactly how practical that is, but it sounds doable. Could one do this via sports betting apps and known offshore joints from home?

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Axel - I can't answer your question - that would have to be answered by them

but again - you can't assume 2% as they have had much worse years and also some much better years

but I would guess that every online book would limit a bettor so he couldn't make bets like that - maybe he could in Vegas at the brick and mortar shops - but I'm not at all sure about that either

Axel - how would you feel if you did all that work to get all of those bets down - and paid them - and their r.o.i. was only 0.25% for your first year using them - as it was one year in their main picks______?______or lost 1.36% for a WHOLE YEAR in their "BatX" picks_________?




one more thing - Mickey mentioned my 34 picks - I have only publicly posted dozens of picks in a thread twice

the other time - see link - I posted 41 picks with a 17% r.o.i. -

but again, I'm not saying I could do that for a great many picks - just sayin





http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...98#post2870298


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I have no clue what bat x picks are.

FYI I can't even ever remember betting on a baseball game, I'm sure I have due to some good tip, but I dont recall doing it.
Watching Baseball is super boring to me. Due to my involvement in baseball cards and collectibles, I know many of the players from the 90s and before.

I have always said, For the most part, people should stay far away from any paid touting pick services or whatever you call them. They might have an advantage, but will you after paying them their free, or after they take their cut?

I don't know what the fee is for this service. However, if they can 100% beat the vig over many games and they have lots of picks, to me, that is huge.

If someone was ever willing to offer a guarantee with insurance (They make you even based on pre-determined unit size with proof of bets made) they will beat the vig or come out ahead over x number of picks, I would pay a significant amount for that.


I'm fairly certain there's value in somthing like unabated.com (I think there is another good one as well) I just haven't got around to doing that yet.



FYI I would bet your picks. I encourage you to PM me any picks you have. And no, I wouldn't care if you happen to run bad. I just need to get action in on bonuses and whatnot. I'm not looking to beat the sports, sure it's nice to beat them, but I'm really just looking to beat the casino promotions. I know I have +EV either way it's just a matter of how much value I have.

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Axel - I'm currently making MLB picks at the link - one per day - i started this thread with the Reddit guy and then he moved to the discord and I couldn't find him anymore

right now I'm 6-2_________ + 1.85 - based on one unit bets

I plan to make 50 picks - one each day

I don't have the confidence I did with hoops picks - I may not end up a winner - just not sure - and just so everybody knows - I don't sell picks - they're always free



EV Analytics explains what "BatX" is at the link - I think they call it a pick when the % chance that a team wins indicates + EV compared to the available odds



http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...88#post2870288



https://evanalytics.com/faq/the-athletic?lmref=waHDRg


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Axel - these guys at winnersandwhiners.com are very sharp imo and they give a free pick for every game every major sport
like the reddit guy they give a very long analysis of each game
they do sell "expert picks" - I guess they identify their best picks - not really sure - it's prolly a potd like the reddit guy

very tough to come out ahead when you make a pick for every game

but if I had to guess - I would guess over a great many picks they will end up a very slight loser or a very slight winner

I definitely believe their commentary has value__________see link



.https://winnersandwhiners.com/

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Originally Posted by Half Smoke

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Axel - these guys at winnersandwhiners.com are very sharp imo and they give a free pick for every game every major sport
like the reddit guy they give a very long analysis of each game
they do sell "expert picks" - I guess they identify their best picks - not really sure - it's prolly a potd like the reddit guy

very tough to come out ahead when you make a pick for every game

but if I had to guess - I would guess over a great many picks they will end up a very slight loser or a very slight winner

I definitely believe their commentary has value__________see link



.https://winnersandwhiners.com/

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Soo many different websites, forums, discords, and Reddit guys.

Hey, are there any hot chicks making winning picks? She would probably make a killing on subs, donations, and views.

FYI oftentimes when using bonuses I'm limited to -200 and +150. I think technically depending on the place I can go outside those parameters for rolling over but I would rather not just be safe and not rock the boat.

I don't want any commentary, just shut up and give me the winning picks ;). But seriously, I'm not attempting to be a pro handicapping sports bettor. If I see some +EV angle or method that's substantiated, I'm in.

My own method was that I was confident 37-38 on the XFL games was too low. I haven't gone back and checked the actual stats on that to see what the final tally was before they hiked up the overs(too lazy) regardless of the actual results. I'm confident I had value.

Next time you do hoop picks I'm in.

Capt. Jack speaks on EV at the 10:00 mark:

https://youtu.be/bH3gZ9jpBZY

The handle or moniker "Capt. Jack" seems to be very popular in gambling circles and platforms. This is at least the 4th I have run across. :)

I am not saying anything bad (or good) about this particular person, as I am not familiar enough to have formed an opinion. The following comment is just a generalization.

At about the 20 second mark, Capt. Jack started talking about subscribers, telling us he has surpassed 10,000 subscribers. I am always leery of these guys that their focus seems to be more on number of subscribers, clicks or views, rather than the content of whatever they are sharing. There is obviously a monetary factor and connection to videos on youtube and such platforms, but even on forums, there are people who write "adventures" that seem more concerned with "views" and "ratings" of a forum when they are posting as opposed to when they aren't. Both Mdog and Singer have expressed this at time. It just seems a tell as to what different peoples agenda really is. :confused:

Again, I don't mean to pick on this Capt. Jack specifically, it just so happens mickey put this one up, but I always come back to one question. If these guys could really pick winners using the angels they share, why would they share that on videos? Why wouldn't they just be picking their winners and keep quiet?

I guess you can ask the same thing about people/players on forums. And the answer is most APs on forums don't divulge too much if anything about specifics. And those of us that do share a little bit, which probably isn't a good idea, we share very selected bits and pieces.

Anyway, just my first thought when I see a video like this. :rolleyes: Again not that the (general) info Capt Jack is sharing isn't reasonable.

Those are all the same Captain Jack. (Well I can't be 100% sure of that not knowing what forums you refer to.)

Producing educational material about sports betting is open to the same objections and rebuttals to those objections as producing educational material about poker. If you think people who do so are necessarily not winning players you're just wrong.

Certainly we shouldn't be hearing those objections from people who rely on OPM to bet sports. (That's not addressed to you but to the former poster who sadly will never read it because he quite the forum).

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Originally Posted by smurgerburger

Those are all the same Captain Jack. (Well I can't be 100% sure of that not knowing what forums you refer to.)

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Interesting.

Well the first Capt. Jack I encountered was at Stanford Wong's BJ21. I never heard him speak of anything other than blackjack, although admittedly, I didn't read some of the sub forums including sports betting back then. But this guy I am speaking of just seemed like an older guy, very knowledgeable about playing conditions back in the 80's and 90's.

At Norm's blackjack forum, there have been, I believe 2 different Capt Jacks that have shown up (one recently) and the members usually tell the newer member there is already a long time member of the blackjack community that uses that name or handle and each time, the newer member has changed.

So that is what I was referring to. I suppose it is just a really common handle or name.